When seconds count...

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Lonestar
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Lonestar »

madd0ct0r wrote:well, is there anything underlying the number of 'going postal' incidents in the USA?
I stand by my theory of decades of slashing of funding for mental health.

EDIT: I could also add to my list: Figure out what in the schooling systems can be done to help kids find self worth.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
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Surlethe
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Surlethe »

Jub wrote:
Surlethe wrote:I don't think random shootings like the one in Aurora or in Columbine really warrant much policy attention at all. They're convenient symbols to talk about, but that kind of single-handed mass slaughter doesn't meaningfully impact annual deaths caused by guns. So this entire discussion about "Joe Average" shooting up a city hall or a movie theater is just pointless, unless someone wants to present evidence that I'm wrong and these mass shootings actually cause significant changes in national gun violence death statistics.
It might not make much of a change, but it would still, potentially save lives. The only way it wouldn't is if the threat of a victim carrying a gun stops more deaths than owning a gun causes.
The point is that the number of lives gun control might save from these random incidents is so small, so tiny, so negligible that it might as well be statistical error in the Census. Against that, you have to weigh the restriction of individual freedom and the enjoyment that many people derive from owning and shooting guns. On a national scale, that deprivation is almost certainly more costly than any extra lives lost due to these incidents.
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
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Spoonist
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Spoonist »

Surlethe wrote:The point is that the number of lives INSERT WHATEVER HERE might save from these random incidents is so small, so tiny, so negligible that it might as well be statistical error in the Census. Against that, you have to weigh the restriction of individual freedom and the enjoyment that many people derive from INSERT WHATEVER HERE. On a national scale, that deprivation is almost certainly more costly than any extra lives lost due to these incidents.
That's not a slippery slope bandwagon you want to get on. That's the motivation for people with some very strange ideas. Like the refuse-seatbelt movement, remove the speed limits, or those that want all drugs/steroids/medicine to be legally available and distributable by anyone to anyone. Where do you draw the line, at what do you draw the line, for who do you draw the line?
If you want a more extreme over the top example I could insert Death Fights in that and hold that up with the same rationale.
So I'd definately get a better platform than that to base the argument on.
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Surlethe
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Surlethe »

Actually, I'm pretty comfortable being on it, since it's a cost-benefit calculation. If the benefits of INSERT WHATEVER HERE are negligible, then the cost of restricting the behavior of millions of people who enjoy INSERT WHATEVER HERE is pretty clearly greater than the benefits. What basis for policy decisions would you propose is superior to weighing costs and benefits?
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
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Spoonist
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Spoonist »

Oh, this has a tangent smell all over it, so would you mind terribly if we take it outside?
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Surlethe
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Surlethe »

Hahahahahah, not at all. (Although I cannot promise consistent responses.)
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
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Alyrium Denryle
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

OK. Just did the math. Notice, I was unable to get murder rate per capita per state prior to 2005, so I moved my data range up from 2005 to 2010

Statistical significance is as follows:
Index of state gun laws: .662, no effect distinct from zero

Mental Illness (measured as per capita rates of serious mental illness): P<.000, Has an effect. Said effect is positive in the sense that yes, mental illness increases the murder rate.

Neither Drug Use (measures as non-pot drug use via self report in the last 30 days) or Bing Drinking in the last 30 days has a non-zero effect on murder rates: (P of .364 and .613 respectively)

Poverty Rate: Highly significant, P<.000. The effect is positive.

Percent of Population Living in Metropolitan Statistical Areas: Highly Significant, P=.004, Effect is positive.

So there we go. Gun laws do Nothing. Lax or Restrictive gun laws, it is all the same. Murder is driven by things like mental illness, poverty, and urbanization. Have a nice day.
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Knife »

What are you using as your statistical significance? 0.5, 0.1, or 0.001? Just curious.
They say, "the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots." I suppose it never occurred to them that they are the tyrants, not the patriots. Those weapons are not being used to fight some kind of tyranny; they are bringing them to an event where people are getting together to talk. -Mike Wong

But as far as board culture in general, I do think that young male overaggression is a contributing factor to the general atmosphere of hostility. It's not SOS and the Mess throwing hand grenades all over the forum- Red
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Alyrium Denryle
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

Knife wrote:What are you using as your statistical significance? 0.5, 0.1, or 0.001? Just curious.
The standard for all sciences barring physics. P<.05
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Jub »

I've done some thinking on how gun density doesn't have much effect on gun crime, at least from the stats AD has posted, and I think I know why. Even in a state with relatively few guns and stricter than average gun laws, the availablity is still high enough that if a criminal wants a gun they can get one with little effort, mass shooters also tend to be in the same situation. So the study might be flawed due to that.

I could be wrong, but I suspect that I'm not.
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Lonestar
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Lonestar »

Stricter than average gun laws is not the same thing as "fewer guns". Usually strict gun laws are targeted against concealed carry or open carry.

Unless you live in California, then gun laws include "based upon what it looks like".
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
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Jub
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Jub »

Lonestar wrote:Stricter than average gun laws is not the same thing as "fewer guns". Usually strict gun laws are targeted against concealed carry or open carry.

Unless you live in California, then gun laws include "based upon what it looks like".
Is that dirrected at my post? I ask because I noted that for states that have both less guns and stricter laws, there is still likely a high enough number of guns to go around that people who want to use one for a crime can get one.
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Lonestar
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Lonestar »

Sorry, you seemed to be implying that stricter guns laws correlated with fewer legal guns.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
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Jub
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by Jub »

Lonestar wrote:Sorry, you seemed to be implying that stricter guns laws correlated with fewer legal guns.
No worries, I'm at work typing between calls so I might not have proof read that post well enough.
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by wautd »

nvm
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TheFeniX
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Re: When seconds count...

Post by TheFeniX »

Lagmonster wrote:If he has a gun, I'm reasonably certain that neither running nor fighting is an option. He might be a twelve-year old in a wheelchair, and I'm pretty sure I'm still fucked so long as he can see with both eyes and has one working arm. In fact, what I keep hearing in public safety seminars is "if they have a gun, give them whatever they want and hope they go away", which only serves to tell me that the missing variable in that recurring "1) X 2) ??? 3) Profit!" meme is the word "guns".
You would be surprised how terrible many people (even cops and military) are with a pistol. Hitting a moving target, even when practiced, is a difficult task. If you can manage 10mph perpendicular to the shooter, he'll be relying on luck more than anything to hit you. You can find video of shoot-outs between cops and criminals taking place at less than 10 feet and with more than 20 rounds fired resulting in no hits. I spoke with one cop at a shooting match who, during a foot-chase, an officer he was with got hit in the head with a bullet (and died) fired from a fleeing criminal. The criminal literally just reached over his own head, and fired blindly while still running.

There's been more than a few reports (some even posted here) of something like "Marine brings knife to gun-fight and wins." Up close, pistols can be grabbed and fought over. At range, they aren't that great (that's why we invented rifles and carbines with 3 points of contact). They are still extremely deadly, but they aren't an automatic win button.

On a kind of "heh" sidenote, there was a report released (by the FBI, I think) a few years back claiming mortalities with handguns had gone down in the commission of violent crimes because gang-bangers and petty criminals took to firing their guns sideways as they had seen in some "Boyz in the Hood" style movie.
Jub wrote:I understand that banning guns isn't going to magically get rid of them. You'd need to implement other changes and do it over time while trying to change the underlying culture. However, just with a blanket removal of guns from law abiding citizens, you remove Joe Average's ability to shoot up a movie theater or a school.
The problem is kids like with Columbine who were relying on their bombs to do most of the work (and would increased the death toll from the dozens to hundreds if they had exploded). Oh yea, and if cops and school administrators had taken the evidence seriously and their parents hadn't been blind idiots, the whole thing would have been avoided. You can also find numerous incidents of multiple stabbing fatalities. I can dig up many more. The key to these is surprise. Yes, I could likely fight off or run from a similar sized attacker (even with my damaged back) armed with a knife, but not if he's already grabbed hold of me and started stabbing before I know what's going on. Other people in the area may have no fucking clue what's happening until a few more people get stabbed.

You can't stop bad shit like this happening by banning whatever weapon was used in a particular attack. You have to start by doing a better job identifying high-risk people because they're going to find a way to get the job done.
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