Scotland to vote on independence in 2014

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-16/b ... al/4314792

British PM signs Scottish independence vote deal

Britain's prime minister and Scotland's first minister have signed an agreement to hold a referendum in 2014 on Scottish independence that could lead to the United Kingdom breaking up after 300 years.

Prime minister David Cameron and pro-independence first minister Alex Salmond inked the agreement and shook hands after a meeting at the Scottish government building St Andrews House in Edinburgh.

Mr Cameron strongly opposes a Scottish breakaway and the signing of the terms for the vote fires the starting gun on two years of campaigning which puts the leaders firmly in opposing camps.

After months of negotiations, the deal clears the way for Scotland's administration to hold the referendum in the final quarter of 2014, offering Scots a straight yes-no question on leaving the UK.

"This is an important day for our United Kingdom, but you can't hold a country in the United Kingdom against the will of its people," Mr Cameron said.

"Scotland voted for a party that wanted to hold a referendum. I believe in showing respect.

"This is the right outcome for Scotland and for the United Kingdom to give the people the choice.

"But I passionately hope and believe that they will vote to keep the United Kingdom together.

"We are better off together, we are stronger together, we are safer together."

Mr Salmond said before the signing that the agreement "will see Scotland take an important step toward independence, and the means to create a fairer and more prosperous Scotland".

"I look forward to working positively for a yes vote in 2014," he said.

Mr Cameron's Conservatives will be joined by their Liberal Democrat coalition partners in the British parliament and the opposition Labour Party in urging voters to keep Britain together.

The marathon campaign will pit them against Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP), the majority party in the devolved Edinburgh parliament.

The terms have been signed as support among Scots for independence appears to be slipping, with a survey by pollsters TNS-BMRB released last week showing 28 per cent in favour and 53 per cent opposed.

Mr Salmond has said he wants independence "not because I think we are better than any other country, but because I know that we are as good as any other country".

The SNP had pressed for the 2014 date, giving them time to try to win over voters and coinciding with the anniversary of the 1314 Battle of Bannockburn - a famous Scots victory over the English.

Compromise
The vote is expected to break new ground by including 16 and 17-year-olds, a move favoured by Mr Salmond's side, but in a concession to the British government the ballot paper will not offer a third option of increased devolution.

Deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon denied that the lack of this option was a defeat for the Scottish government.

She told BBC radio: "We have never said we wanted a second question on the ballot paper."

"What we did say was that option shouldn't be ruled out prematurely.

"But in any negotiation there has to be compromise.

"Both sides have compromised but overall I'm very satisfied that we have a deal that guarantees a referendum made in Scotland."

Michael Moore, the British minister responsible for Scotland, said it was stronger as part of the UK.

"The opportunities in continuing to be part of the United Kingdom are strong," he told BBC radio.

"What we've not had so far is anybody spelling out what independence will look like - (there are) lots of risks attached to it which have not yet been thought through by the SNP."

The wording of the question for the referendum must be submitted to Britain's Electoral Commission for approval, but Scotland has held a consultation using the question: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

Mr Salmond, who has pushed for a referendum since his party won a majority in the Scottish parliament in May 2011, says Scotland - with a population of five million - should be able to run its own foreign, economic and defence policies.

The devolved Scottish government currently has powers over areas such as health and education, as well as a separate legal system.

A potential separation raises questions about what would happen to revenues from North Sea oil reserves.

Mr Salmond has said he wants to retain the sterling currency and the British monarch as head of state.

So what do the Scots here think?

[Korto]

"This is an important day for our United Kingdom, but you can't hold a country in the United Kingdom against the will of its people," Mr Cameron said.

Well, technically you can, just ask Wales.
Step 1. Build a line of stone castles...

[PREDATOR490]

Dont think it is a good idea.
I have rarely heard anyone even speaking about it and those that do tend to think it is a bad idea.

That said, the campaigning is going to start which should be more interesting just to see how they pitch the notion.
Had more than a few 'activists' preaching that Scotland is the richest nation... loads of oil... blah blah... but they rarely go into WHY Scotland should be independant or how feasible it is.

[Eternal_Freedom]

ANd what will an independent Scotland do once the oil is gone? How will they then pay for their own defence and healthcare? I would imainge they will ask for the Scottish regiments to be turned over to them, and yet they mostly (from what I have heard from soldier friends) have English or English-trained officers.

Frankly, I can't see an independent Scotland working. Oh, incidentally, has anyone asked what Her Majesty thinks of this?

[mr friendly guy]

How much will an independent Scotland need to pay for defence, compared to say the UK budget. I have heard it said when asked what they will do different is that they wouldn't have gone into an illegal invasion of Iraq. So presumably they aren't as interested in the power projection ability the UK currently has, so it will be less costly.

[Zaune]

That said, the campaigning is going to start which should be more interesting just to see how they pitch the notion.

"Vote for Scottish Independence and make David Cameron someone else's problem"?

[atg]

I've heard it said that even with the North Sea oil that more money gets put into Scotland than Scotland generates. Can anyone confirm this?

[Mr Bean]

So is Scotland signing a mutual defense treaty or can Ireland invade?
I always wonder about these kind of Independence movements. I assume Scotland has to start building it's own Navy and port facilites and the Brits have to set up inspection facilities at the Scotland/Britain borders. I assume in the departure they are not netting any British fleet ships or army units so they are counting on their history to make them immune from say Sweden claiming all North Sea oil deposits if Sweden were the kind of country to do that sort of thing.

[Stark]

That says more about you, than Scotland.

[Zinegata]

Strictly speaking, didn't the Scots actually end up "conquering" England after their King inherited the English crown after Queen Elizabeth's death a long, long time ago?

[Minischoles]

Salmond hasn't exactly given any details on how an independent Scotland will actually work, beyond vague promises and idealistic chest thumping nationalist bullshit about how Scotland is 'great'.

[Hillary]

I actually think that Cameron has outmanoeuvred Alex Salmond here. I'm fairly sure that the SNP's goal here was to gain more devolution, rather than outright independence. I simply don't believe the Scots will vote for this option - the polls have consistently shown this - and Cameron has restricted the referendum to a simple yes/no vote, rather than to a range of options including more devolved power.

Once the campaign gets going, it's going to be a battle between the SNP giving it the "Scots Wahey" line and the other parties giving a doomsday scenario for the country. The basic fact is that the Scottish economy is in fairly good shape - are they really going to risk it for....well what exactly? What is really going to be better for their lives, apart from a sense of 'fuck the English'?

[Vendetta]

I've heard it said that even with the North Sea oil that more money gets put into Scotland than Scotland generates. Can anyone confirm this?

North Sea Oil varies according to global oil prices. Some years it produces enough that Scotland could be financially independent, most years there's a shortfall.

A lot of the assumptions about financial security for an independent Scotland assume automatic EU membership

[Bright]

Not that it's a terribly likely prospect, but wouldn't Scotland gaining independence possibly set a rather dangerous precedent for the EU? It would certainly energize other independence movements in Europe, such as the one in Catalonia. If Spain's most prosperous area broke off, its economic issues suddenly become that much worse and thus a bigger strain on the Union. It seems like Scottish independence could set off a string of dominos...

In my three years of living there, my only real experience with the independence movement is when some guys put up the question "Should Scotland be independent of the UK?" up for vote at my university's annual general meeting. It was a joke, you understand, since we obviously didn't have the power to decide anything on this, but then people actually started arguing about this issue for real, dragging out the AGM and basically ruining real discussion and voting on actual university matters. The impression I got was that people advocating independence were a vocal minority. I only really knew one guy that took it seriously.

[Alyrium Denryle]

"This is an important day for our United Kingdom, but you can't hold a country in the United Kingdom against the will of its people," Mr Cameron said.

Well, technically you can, just ask Wales.
Step 1. Build a line of stone castles...

Step 2. Bring in the crown prince Henry V when his good-for-nothing-but-usurpation father fails to adequately deal with a welsh rebellion and the House of Percy...

[streetad]

Well an independent Scotland would have to apply separately for EU membership and there is a non-negligible chance that Spain would do everything they can to block this as a warning shot to their own separatists. During a recent SNP independence march in Edinburgh several thousand Catalans and Basques turned up - they are probably more invested in this than most Scots are.

Salmond gives the impression that he hasn't thought through a lot of how an independent Scotland would work, instead swinging wildly between opposing positions depending on polling data; renewable energy, oil revenue, monarchist, republican, wanting the Euro, wanting to keep Sterling (ironically this would create a situation where Scotland has LESS control over its own fiscal policy than it currently has). Really whatever will further the independence agenda....

[Eternal_Freedom]

My friends and I were discussing this over a few drinks this evening. We came to the conclusion that even if Scotland managed to get enough votes to declare independence, their "national" survival depends on the North Sea oil, and unless they manage to buy out whole regiments they have no way of stopping the RN from seizing those oil fields in the name of Her Majesty, were they so inclined.

[Teebs]

I'm pretty neutral on the issue. If they want to stay, fine, if they want to go, fine. I think Scotland would be a little worse off on its own, but that's just gut feeling, I've no doubt they would continue to be an independent nation state.

As Streetad pointed out, the big worries should be EU membership and the actual mechanism for separation. I have the feeling the nationalists think they can leave all the bad bits behind and take the good with them, which strikes me as unlikely. As for the idea that other EU nations, particularly the rest of the UK would use military force to take Scottish oil fields, it's utterly ludicrous.

One thing I am very much against is further devolution unless the rest of the UK gets it too. I think it's fine for Scotland to vote itself out of the Union effectively unilaterally, but not ok to continue to stay in and get more and more privileges over the other parts.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Oh certainly the idea of the UK using military force to seize Scottish oilfields is ludicrous, I said as much "If they were so inclinded."

The point was that the Scots woudl have no way to prevent such an action and I have seen plenty of arguments saying they oil fields are British not Scottish, which adds rather a different spin on it. The RN could simply be securing/defending important national assets. An independent Scotland would have no recourse apart from diplomatic verbiage.

[Zaune]

Oh certainly the idea of the UK using military force to seize Scottish oilfields is ludicrous, I said as much "If they were so inclinded."

The point was that the Scots would have no way to prevent such an action and I have seen plenty of arguments saying they oil fields are British not Scottish, which adds rather a different spin on it. The RN could simply be securing/defending important national assets. An independent Scotland would have no recourse apart from diplomatic verbiage.

They could turn out the Army and forcibly repossess Berwick-upon-Tweed, or start arming the Real IRA. And they probably would if we pulled a stunt like that!

[Hillary]

Oh certainly the idea of the UK using military force to seize Scottish oilfields is ludicrous, I said as much "If they were so inclinded."

The point was that the Scots would have no way to prevent such an action and I have seen plenty of arguments saying they oil fields are British not Scottish, which adds rather a different spin on it. The RN could simply be securing/defending important national assets. An independent Scotland would have no recourse apart from diplomatic verbiage.

They could turn out the Army and forcibly repossess Berwick-upon-Tweed, or start arming the Real IRA. And they probably would if we pulled a stunt like that!

Really? I presume that the Berwick-on-Tweed thing is a bit of an historical joke, but are you seriously suggesting that a Scottish Government would start arming Irish republican terrorists? I mean, seriously, WTF - why on Earth would they do that? For a start, the protestant half of Scotland would be less than impressed, but if they were going to respond in a military way, why would they not use their own highly trained soldiers, rather than a bunch of fanatical, unprofessional thugs?

[mr friendly guy]

Not that it's a terribly likely prospect, but wouldn't Scotland gaining independence possibly set a rather dangerous precedent for the EU? It would certainly energize other independence movements in Europe, such as the one in Catalonia. If Spain's most prosperous area broke off, its economic issues suddenly become that much worse and thus a bigger strain on the Union. It seems like Scottish independence could set off a string of dominos...

Possibly. In regards to the economic issues, I have heard it said if Catalan broke off, the combined Spanish and Catalan economy still won't be the same size as the pre-breakaway Spain for various reasons. The fact that Catalan would not be allowed to use the Euro and won't even be a member of the EU for that matter will certainly affect transactions with EU nations. The EU itself will have a smaller GDP without these separatist regions, albeit most probably not by much.

[Zaune]

Really? I presume that the Berwick-on-Tweed thing is a bit of an historical joke, but are you seriously suggesting that a Scottish Government would start arming Irish republican terrorists? I mean, seriously, WTF - why on Earth would they do that? For a start, the protestant half of Scotland would be less than impressed, but if they were going to respond in a military way, why would they not use their own highly trained soldiers, rather than a bunch of fanatical, unprofessional thugs?

Because the scenario Eternal_Freedom suggested would be a blatant act of war, but Scotland wouldn't be in a logistical position to fight a conventional campaign for very long, so they'd have to take whatever allies of convenience they could find.

Besides, I bet even the Scottish Protestants would be willing to concede that an organisation that once made an earnest and very nearly successful attempt to kill Margaret Thatcher can't be all bad.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

On a more lighthearted note, Scottish independence is going to throw a real spanner in the works for those planning on eloping

[Saxtonite]

That said, the campaigning is going to start which should be more interesting just to see how they pitch the notion.
Had more than a few 'activists' preaching that Scotland is the richest nation... loads of oil... blah blah... but they rarely go into WHY Scotland should be independant or how feasible it is.

Salmond hasn't exactly given any details on how an independent Scotland will actually work, beyond vague promises and idealistic chest thumping nationalist bullshit about how Scotland is 'great'.

It's anti-English sentiment, as well as a sense of 'otherness' in culture and whatnot. The early campaigns the nationalists in the 1970s pulled was that "Scotland only joined/was a part of the UK for access to English colonies. The British Empire is dissolved, what is the point of this union now."

Never underestimate the sense of nationalism of the sort of "not wanting to share a state or deal with x ethnic group"

Well, technically you can, just ask Wales.
Step 1. Build a line of stone castles...

Didn't work too well after the 1960s when there were terrorist groups blowing up English peoples' houses and whatnot (Sons of Glendwyr)

In my three years of living there, my only real experience with the independence movement is when some guys put up the question "Should Scotland be independent of the UK?" up for vote at my university's annual general meeting. It was a joke, you understand, since we obviously didn't have the power to decide anything on this, but then people actually started arguing about this issue for real, dragging out the AGM and basically ruining real discussion and voting on actual university matters. The impression I got was that people advocating independence were a vocal minority. I only really knew one guy that took it seriously.

I talk to a Scottish nationalist on Skype who is a card-carrying member of the SNP. There apparently is some sense of seriousness, and the younger population of Scotland is more nationalist (See the 'extend the vote to 16 year olds idea).

Apparently as you said there is a noticeable pro-independentist population but some are less serious. It will probably get more serious later.

Well an independent Scotland would have to apply separately for EU membership and there is a non-negligible chance that Spain would do everything they can to block this as a warning shot to their own separatists. During a recent SNP independence march in Edinburgh several thousand Catalans and Basques turned up - they are probably more invested in this than most Scots are.

Can I see a link I am interested

Really? I presume that the Berwick-on-Tweed thing is a bit of an historical joke, but are you seriously suggesting that a Scottish Government would start arming Irish republican terrorists? I mean, seriously, WTF - why on Earth would they do that? For a start, the protestant half of Scotland would be less than impressed, but if they were going to respond in a military way, why would they not use their own highly trained soldiers, rather than a bunch of fanatical, unprofessional thugs?

Weren't Sons of Glendwyr aided and supported by the IRA?