[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

[Luke Skywalker]

Shit: a new poll puts Romney and Obama in a dead heat in Ohio:

Dress your links ~D

Others, including the ABC poll, still give Obama the edge, but IIRC, that one was from a few days earlier.

[Dalton]

Shit: a new poll puts Romney and Obama in a dead heat in Ohio:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politic ... -1.1194076

Others, including the ABC poll, still give Obama the edge, but IIRC, that one was from a few days earlier.

A single poll means jack shit, especially when the article doesn't list the source or provide a link.

[Dalton]

Also please for the love of fuck DRESS YOUR LINKS and maybe paste in the article. This goes for everyone.

[Crossroads Inc.]

I'm reasonably certain Mittens has Florida in the bag. It may be close (as it usually is) but it seems he has the momentum down here. The push from the Romney camp seems stronger down here than it does from the Obama camp. In my area alone, there is a far higher proportion of Romney signs on people's lawns as opposed to Obama signs, and I was talking to a friend of mine in Pinellas County, which apparently also was a swing area last time around, and he says it's going Romney as well. Cars on the road also have disproportionally more Romney stickers.

All of that is anecdotal, of course, but it seems to support 528's "lean Romney" prediction. I remember that Orange and Seminole counties helped put Obama over the top last time, but I don't think they're going to swing that way this time. Seminole certainly isn't.

Florida does look to be leaning toward Mittens, 538 has had it a 60% or higher for quite some time sadly However... I notice that VA has swung from being in Mittens camp, to 50% to now almost 60% FOR Obama.

If VA swings to Obama, again, that means that Romney will HAVE to win Ohio AND one other swing state. Right now CO is the only other state in play, as most of the other northren states are slated to goto Obama.

I'll have to look up how early ther polls close in VA. Because really, if that state goes for Obama, Mittens is basically Fcked.

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

I wouldn't judge anything by how many signs you see on yards. Bangor is pretty much guaranteed to go for Obama but I'm pretty sure I've seen more Romney signs than Obama/Biden.

[CaptJodan]

I wouldn't judge anything by how many signs you see on yards. Bangor is pretty much guaranteed to go for Obama but I'm pretty sure I've seen more Romney signs than Obama/Biden.

I wouldn't go off JUST signs, no. That's why I included 538's prediction. I'm just noting that, in the counties in Florida that have swung in the past, (I was wrong about Seminole 4 years ago, so disregard. Check facts first) 538's polls look accurate "on the ground". Sign people are likely voters, and there were far more Obama signs present in 2008 than there is now.

538 says a 63% chance for a Romney victory in this state. I would say that there is more than ample evidence "on the ground" that they're likely to be right. Obama really only needs to lose one of the major urban areas in this state to lose Florida, and it seems he will lose at least that.

[Lord MJ]

One issue with the parallel to Romney 2012 and Kerry 2004. Is that while there are more people voting against Obama instead of for Romney, the reasoning is a lot different than against Bush rather than for Kerry.

Taking aside the people (read racists) that will oppose Obama no matter what he does. A major issue people have with Obama is that they feel that he is not getting the job done. Likening him to a coach with an underperforming team after 4 years. When that happens, people want to make a change.

The issue with Bush isn't that he wasn't getting the job done, it was he was a neocon that got us into a war in Iraq under false pretenses.

Ironically, people are more willing to forgive that, then to forgive "failure." I've heard the words "Rewarding Failure" on more than one occasion from people arguing against Obama's re-election. Mainly from people that have been in business for a sizable period of time.

I think the turning point would be the last unemployment report (even though that would not give an accurate picture of where things are) if that number ticks upward, it's not good for Obama. If it ticks downward, Obama is "safe." As well as the who is able to mobilize their supporters to actually show up to the polls.

[Mr Bean]

Joss Wedon Endorses Romney(Kinda). I endorse this video and stand by it's conclusions and while it is election related it does not merit it's own thread.

[Lord MJ]

Keep getting panicking emails from the Obama campaign. Once again not sure, if there is really an issue, or if they are just being dramatic in order to get donations. But still, it's very scary.

[General Zod]

Keep getting panicking emails from the Obama campaign. Once again not sure, if there is really an issue, or if they are just being dramatic in order to get donations. But still, it's very scary.

Being calm and rational doesn't drum up support. They did that during Obama's first election too.

[Dalton]

O is up again in 538 forecast.

[The Romulan Republic]

How significant is the effect of the storm on the election likely to be?

[weemadando]

Depends how badly trashed the joint ends up being. If shit goes really wrong then it could turn into a "Fuck the debt, save the country/eastern seaboard" situation.

Lots of construction jobs would make for good stimulus.

In reality? The Republicans will spin any aid that happens as a bad thing and liberals spending YOUR money to bail out their intellectual elitist Yankee friends.

[Flagg]

How significant is the effect of the storm on the election likely to be?

Depends, really. Ohio is the key and the storm is going to hit it mildly hard. But Romney may implode tomorrow as he's doing a "relief Tour" campaign event there tomorrow.

[TimothyC]

How significant is the effect of the storm on the election likely to be?

Depends, really. Ohio is the key and the storm is going to hit it mildly hard. But Romney may implode tomorrow as he's doing a "relief Tour" campaign event there tomorrow.

While I am on the western edge of the state, there has been noting from this that we don't get on a fairly regular basis. The temps are high enough that the snow isn't going to stick outside of the south east corner of the state (the snow that I am watching come down outside of my window is melting on impact), but again - this weather is still within reason for the area this time of year.

Other than Franklin (Columbus), Hamilton (Cincinnati), & Montgomery (Dayton) counties, all of the counties that went for Obama in 2008 are either up by lake Erie or are in the eastern half of the state, which are the parts of the state most effected by the storm.

[The Romulan Republic]

Ohio might not be badly effected, but Virginia is also very important in this election and is being badly affected.

[FaxModem1]

If the storm is taking away power and making things bad, will they still be able to vote on the 6th? Or will they do something in case they can't?

[Flagg]

If the storm is taking away power and making things bad, will they still be able to vote on the 6th? Or will they do something in case they can't?

Congress can delay the Presidential election but that won't happen. My instincts from being in 8 of these fuckers tell me the polling places and precincts will have power, as they restore to essential and commercial places before residences.

[General Zod]

If the storm is taking away power and making things bad, will they still be able to vote on the 6th? Or will they do something in case they can't?

Sounds like an argument in favor of paper ballots if you ask me.

[weemadando]

Well, as long as it's only those nasty big city Yankee elites and their minority slum friends who are going to be effected come voting day, where's the problem?

[Dalton]

Campaigning has been "suspended" during this emergency, except for the thinly-veiled campaign event Romney has going on in Ohio, where he is airing ads based on COMPLETE FUCKING LIES.

[weemadando]

And Romney shitting up relief efforts with his own relief photo op?

[Tribun]

Well, Romney certainly can't get any advantage out of the storm. Obama pretty much did the job a president has to do in a crisis situation without errors, had not taken the situation lightly and even the Rep. Governeur of New Jersey had to admit that Obama had done everything he could do in such a situation.

The only thing Romney can hope is, that turnout under Dem. voters will be low in the hit states because of the disaster. Hell, the Democrats don't even have to be dirty. Just repeating what Romney said about FEMA would be enough to damage him in light of what happened.

[Block]

The Jeep ads that Romney put out in Ohio seem to be really hurting him with Independants. Turns out maybe it's not such a good idea to lie about a car company shipping jobs out of the country when the CEO is willing to respond and say "Fuck you, we're not moving anything out of the US, just expanding operations."

[Dalton]

538 just updated; Obama jumps up a few EV to 299, with his chances for re-election jumping up 4.5% to 77.4 with 50.4% of the popular vote. Obama is likely to win all swing states except FL and NC.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those.