[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

[Dominus Atheos]

Is this also the voting thread?

[FSTargetDrone]

Well, Romney certainly can't get any advantage out of the storm. Obama pretty much did the job a president has to do in a crisis situation without errors, had not taken the situation lightly and even the Rep. Governeur of New Jersey had to admit that Obama had done everything he could do in such a situation.

The only thing Romney can hope is, that turnout under Dem. voters will be low in the hit states because of the disaster. Hell, the Democrats don't even have to be dirty. Just repeating what Romney said about FEMA would be enough to damage him in light of what happened.

Yep, the thing about Romney with respect to the storm is that right now there is nothing he can say concerning aid or emergency funding until he is president, assuming he wins. And that is in January, months away. Obama can only be boosted (or conceivably be hurt by his response if it's a poor one), but Romney has to sit on his hands for this. What else can he do but visit the area and have his picture taken? He can make no promises. At best it will be seen by a lot of people as gross politicizing of the situation, whereas Obama is expected to be on the ground and talking with local leaders and citizens precisely because he is president. He must be there.

And as you alluded to, it also doesn't hurt Obama that one of his loudest critics is heaping praise on him for the response so far:

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Mitt who? Sandy brings Chris & Barack together

Who could have possibly seen this coming?

Gov. Christie has been one of Mitt Romney's most significant supporters, fundraisers and surrogates. He gave the keynote speech at Romney's convention; he has described President Obama as a man lacking the leadership ability to find his way around the Oval Office.

And yet now, here they are, Christie and Obama, BFF. Tomorrow, in what will undoubtedly be the news story of the day, Obama and Christie are touring Sandy-ravaged New Jersey together, according to a statement released moments ago from the White House.

Yesterday, they spoke three times on the phone, and Christie was given a special number to reach him at the White House. At midnight, the prez called the gov, waking him up.

"Which is fine," Christie said. "He gets too."

And since the storm began, Christie has repeatedly lavished unsolicited praise on Obama -- at press conferences, on Twitter and on cable TV (FOX News!).

The president has been "wonderful." Obama's FEMA -- the same FEMA that embarrassed President George W. Bush during Katrina -- has been "excellent." And so has Obama's..."leadership."

Did Sandy wipe away the partisan rancor that has defined the 2012 campaign? Or did Sandy relocate me to Oz?

This is not the first time Christie has praised Obama. The two toured New Jersey after Hurricane Irene, comforting residents and joking with each other about the challenges of raising teenage girls. And certainly, Christie needs Obama's federal money to rebuild New Jersey.

But, still: This is six days before a presidential election. Will this help Obama? It certainly can't help Romney.

“I don’t give a damn about Election Day; it doesn’t matter a lick to me at the moment," Christie said this morning. "I’ve got much bigger fish to fry, as do the people of New Jersey.”

Romney's previous comments on FEMA are also not doing him any favors.

[weemadando]

http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/ro ... 0/30/52648

That piece (longer and with more quotes etc than I'm willing to put up) elaborates nicely on my "Romney shitting up relief efforts with photo ops" thing.

Here's the most telling excerpt:

"But soon, reporters poked holes in the campaign’s explanation for staging the rally. First, the relief event was scheduled for the same time and location as a recently canceled political rally. Then, photos emerged, showing that donors were asked to wait to drop off their goods until Romney arrived to accept them himself, suggesting a photo op not unlike the one his running mate Paul Ryan staged earlier this month in a soup kitchen. And Salon noticed that the targeted recipient of all of the donations — the Red Cross — doesn’t even accept most of what the Romney campaign collected in Ohio."

[Alkaloid]

How do laws about voting work in relation to people actually being able to vote? It's all well and good to say that the polling booths themselves have power, but things like flooded subways, potentially impassable roads etc, people having the ruins of queens to try and sort out could make it effectively impossible to actually get to them in order to vote. Could the election have to be postponed because fuck what congress votes on, citizens have to have a reasonable opportunity to vote?

[Flagg]

How do laws about voting work in relation to people actually being able to vote? It's all well and good to say that the polling booths themselves have power, but things like flooded subways, potentially impassable roads etc, people having the ruins of queens to try and sort out could make it effectively impossible to actually get to them in order to vote. Could the election have to be postponed because fuck what congress votes on, citizens have to have a reasonable opportunity to vote?

No. Only congress can change the date of the presidential election.

[Lord MJ]

Romney is no launching ad blitzes into seemingly strong Obama states such as Michigan, and Minnesota, while ratcheting up efforts to win Pennsylvania. Looks like he is trying to pick off states that are in the Obama camp to make up for a potential loss of Ohio.

Michigan poll shows Obama with a 3pt lead.

[Tribun]

Wonder if that's gonna bite him that he's again doing his campaign, while Obama is busy with actually doing his job after the storm.

[Lord MJ]

Don't know how to embed youtube here.

But this is a pretty clever ad by the GOP.

http://youtu.be/rADFnNoS3YM

[JME2]

Wonder if that's gonna bite him that he's again doing his campaign, while Obama is busy with actually doing his job after the storm.

Oh, I hope it does.

[Dalton]

Don't know how to embed youtube here.

But this is a pretty clever ad by the GOP.

http://youtu.be/rADFnNoS3YM

Would be cleverer if Mitt's five-point plan wasn't already tried by McCain...and Bush.

[Luke Skywalker]

Nate Silver has Obama up to 299 electoral votes, and recent polls show Obama maintaining his lead in Ohio and winning in Florida (!!).

Perhaps my pessimism was premature. At this point, Obama just needs to not fuck up, and ensure that republicans don't try to rig election night, and he's well on his way to victory.

In the electoral college, at least.

[Pint0 Xtreme]

Obama keeping or expanding a lead appears to be the narrative at the LA Times as well. It's also possible, as Silver points out, that there is a systematic problem at the state polls overstating Obama's numbers. But based on relatively recent historical outcomes, I believe it's been the state polls that end up being more accurate that the national polls.

[CaptJodan]

Nate Silver has Obama up to 299 electoral votes, and recent polls show Obama maintaining his lead in Ohio and winning in Florida (!!).

I'm going to hold out for 538 to catch up with those polls they mention in that story regarding Florida. So far, 538 still swings it to Romney. Though the percentage of Romney winning has drastically decreased to 58% to 41% since the last time I checked.

If Obama snags Florida again, I would be really happy. I'm not holding out that much hope though.

sMitty has made some real tactical blunders in the past few days, including not talking about what he'll do with FEMA and running (and not pulling once it hit the news) those ads in Ohio that Crysler states are flat untrue. Add the praise for Obama's handling of the Sandy crisis from Chris Christie, and it's been a fairly good week for Obama thus far.

[Executor32]

What? Checking 538 now, Nate has Obama with a 77.4% chance of winning vs. Romney's 22.6%, and as Luke said, he estimates 299 electoral votes for Obama vs. 239 for Romney.

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

Jodan is talking about how 538 still says Florida leans to Romney, despite some recent polls that show Obama with a big lead there. I'm guessing they haven't been factored in yet, though also a few good polls tend not to be enough to swing a state hard in his model; Virginia's had several days of good polling for Obama and it's only slowly creeping up in odds.

[FSTargetDrone]

Will NJ Gov. Christie Hand Obama A Second Term?

Has Chris Christie swung the election for Obama?

By Nicholas Wapshott

October 31, 2012

The 2012 election’s October Surprise arrived when Hurricane Sandy made landfall and brought the campaign to a halt. The real surprise, however, is how the narrative was so radically altered by the tropical storm’s progress through New Jersey and how Governor Chris Christie so quickly changed his mind about the president. Until the heavens opened, no Mitt Romney surrogate was more scathing and personally disrespectful toward the president than Christie, whose down-to-earth appeal to blue collar voters was considered so important by GOP strategists he was awarded the keynote address at the convention that crowned Romney the party’s candidate.

In a withering assault in Tampa, Christie called for clear, decisive leadership. “Leadership delivers. Leadership counts. Leadership matters,” he said. “It’s time to end this era of absentee leadership in the Oval Office and send real leaders to the White House.” Christie was back on the attack in Richmond, Virginia, last week, making fun of Obama’s failure to lead. Addressing the president’s complaint that Washington politics-as-usual had hampered his ability to govern, Christie taunted him, saying, “You’ve been living inside 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the last four years. If you don’t think you can change Washington from inside the White House, let’s give you the plane ticket back to Chicago you’ve earned.”

Few other Romney surrogates, and certainly not the mechanical Romney himself, could batter the president with such effect. Christie went on to describe Obama as “like a man wandering around a dark room, hands up against the wall, clutching for the light switch of leadership and he just can’t find it” and “blindly walking around the White House looking for a clue.” Then on Monday came Sandy’s 90 miles-an-hour gusts hosing millions of gallons of salt water on the sentimental Christie’s beloved Jersey Shore, the place where the governor grew up and went to high school.

Thanks to Sandy, Christie the governor engaged with Obama the chief executive and the election turned on a dime. Everywhere you looked on TV Tuesday morning, Christie was extolling the president’s leadership skills. On CBS’s “Good Morning” he said the president’s response had been “excellent” and he “can’t thank the president enough” for coming to Jersey’s aid. That afternoon, Christie told the press, “We appreciate the president’s efforts,” adding, “I appreciate that type of leadership.” Christie let slip he had spoken to Obama a number of times on the president’s private line. He plainly liked what he heard. Christie Tweeted, “I want to thank the president personally for all his assistance.”

Most devastating to the Romney campaign, impotently standing by as Obama took charge of events, Christie appeared on the Fox News breakfast show with its audience of 1.5 million overwhelmingly Republican-voters. Asked whether Romney would be visiting Jersey to see the devastation for himself, Christie snapped, “I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested. I have got a job to do here in New Jersey that is much bigger than presidential politics. And I could care less about any of that stuff.” You could almost hear the Romney camp spew out their cups of morning Joe.

On CNN that night Christie explained why he had changed his tune about Obama’s ability to lead. “When the president does things that deserve praise, I will give him praise,” he told Piers Morgan. “And when the president does things that deserve scorn, I’ll give him scorn.” On Wednesday, Christie welcomed Obama to the Jersey Shore and their personal rapport and body language betrayed two men who understand each other and, importantly, respect and like each other.

Inspired no doubt by George W. Bush’s inept handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and his aloof fly-by visit to the scene of mayhem thousands of feet below, Obama has been seen managing the Sandy havoc with his sleeves rolled up. Highlighting the plight of Newark, New Jersey, where up to 90 per cent of households were without power, he said, “My message to the federal government: No bureaucracy, no red tape. Get resources where they’re needed as fast as possible, as hard as possible, and for the duration, because the recovery process obviously in a place like New Jersey is going to take a significant amount of time.”

He urged federal officials to think big, recruiting “military assets” and demanding “private utilities” to act quickly to speed the clean-up. The subliminal message was clear: if members of Congress would only cooperate, he would happily slash government regulations to help the economy recover.

So what’s Christie’s game? From all that is known of him, he is a seat-of-the-pants guy who sees things as he finds them. He is not a sophisticated pol scheming and plotting, looking for every chance to slyly move his piece up the board. His assaults upon Obama were inspired by tribal loyalty; his response to Obama’s helping hand was genuine and human. But Christie is a politician nonetheless.

In the summer he was approached to become Romney’s vice presidential candidate. The Romney camp dearly wanted to compensate for their wooden candidate’s awkward personality by strapping on Christie’s flesh-and-blood approach to voters. Christie was not prepared to take the gamble. It would have meant giving up the Jersey governorship, a job he appears born to do. In brief, Christie said no because he thought Romney would lose.

Yet there is always 2016. If Romney wins, Christie will have to bide his time. But if Obama wins, the GOP will go through an anguished post-mortem where conservative/libertarians will argue Romney was nowhere near conservative enough and the few remaining GOP moderates will claim that Tea Party extremism sank their chances. Christie is a natural retail politician. His only drawback for many in his party is that he has his feet planted too firmly on the ground. When as governor he appointed a Muslim judge, he came in for abuse from conservatives who said he was ushering sharia into America. Christie’s response was typically robust. “I’m tired of dealing with the crazies,” he said. If the GOP wants someone who could give Hillary Clinton (or Joe Biden or Andrew Cuomo) a run for their money next time round, they could do worse than pick Christie.

Nicholas Wapshott’s Keynes Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics has just been published in paperback by W. W. Norton.

Now, I'm still not convinced this will necessarily give Obama enough of a boost to really push him over the top for sure, but it's a fascinating turn of events just the same. Take a look at this page of photos put out by the governor's office. Obama and Christie may as well be campaigning together. I very much doubt we are going to see similar pictures of a Romney visit, nor as much attention given if he shows up. There is nothing Romney can say that comes anywhere close to what Obama can promise, right now.

[Executor32]

Jodan is talking about how 538 still says Florida leans to Romney, despite some recent polls that show Obama with a big lead there. I'm guessing they haven't been factored in yet, though also a few good polls tend not to be enough to swing a state hard in his model; Virginia's had several days of good polling for Obama and it's only slowly creeping up in odds.

Ah, my bad. I'm pretty beat after the long day I had at my new job, learning firsthand that Macs are an absolute bitch to work on, so I misread it.

[Irbis]

Meanwhile, Romney/Biden presidency? Paul Ryan being 2012 president? Winning presidential race with 16% of the popular vote? All possible, actually.

And the Texas has the gall to declare USA can teach Europe democracy

[Mr Bean]

Remember what I was talking about how much early voting benefits Democrats?
Let this be a lesson in that
The election the Republicans cleaned up they had a 33% share of the early voting total, it indicates to you how bad weather can ruin the Republican turnout.

[LadyTevar]

From NBCnews.com:

Still, Israelis favor the Republican candidate by a margin of two-to-one, a recent opinion poll commissioned by Tel Aviv University found.
"(Romney) is better … because he wants to be friends with Israel," said Ya'acov Rassamkin, a student from Jerusalem. "Romney wants the U.S. and Israel to be real partners, like one team, and Obama on the other hand wants to be friends but not act like one team."
And to wonder which way Israel would actually vote for in the American election is not an entirely theoretical question.
According to IVoteIsrael, around 160,000 Israeli citizens possess U.S. passports. By campaign’s end, almost half will have registered postal votes.
Both Democrats and Republicans here say the issue of security is the number one concern.
"Israelis feel that Israel would be in better shape if Mitt Romney is elected,’" said Abe Katsman, of Republicans Abroad Israel. "The biggest problem with President Obama is that he had done a lot of damage to the relationship with Israel. The idea of putting daylight between America and an ally strikes me as a very dangerous thing to do."

Other than those who have US Passports, Israel needs to keep its nose out of US elections.

[FSTargetDrone]

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses Obama:

November 1, 2012
Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

In a surprise announcement, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said Thursday that Hurricane Sandy had reshaped his thinking about the presidential campaign and that as a result he was endorsing President Obama.

Mr. Bloomberg, a political independent in his third term leading New York City, has been sharply critical of both Mr. Obama, a Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the president’s Republican rival, saying that both men have failed to candidly confront the problems afflicting the nation. But he said he had decided over the past several days that Mr. Obama was the best candidate to tackle the global climate change that the mayor believes contributed to the violent storm, which took the lives of at least 38 New Yorkers and caused billions of dollars in damage.

“The devastation that Hurricane Sandy brought to New York City and much of the Northeast — in lost lives, lost homes and lost business — brought the stakes of next Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief,” Mr. Bloomberg wrote in an editorial for Bloomberg View.

“Our climate is changing,” he wrote. “And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it may be — given the devastation it is wreaking — should be enough to compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.”

Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement is another indication that Hurricane Sandy has influenced the presidential campaign. The storm, and the destruction it left in its wake, has dominated news coverage, transfixing the nation and prompting the candidates to halt their campaigning briefly.

More than that, it appears to have given a new level of urgency to a central issue in the presidential campaign: the appropriate size and role of government.

As the Federal Emergency Management Agency began undertaking relief efforts across the Northeast, Mr. Romney found himself in the tough position of having to clarify a statement he made last year in which he appeared to back giving the states a larger share of the federal government’s role in disaster response.

But Mr. Bloomberg’s endorsement was largely unexpected. For months, the Obama and Romney campaigns have sought the mayor’s endorsement, in large part because they believe he could influence independent voters around the country.

Mr. Bloomberg has steadfastly withheld his support, largely because he had grown frustrated with the tone and substance of the presidential campaign – recently deriding as “gibberish” the answers that Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney gave during a debate to a question about an assault weapons ban. He has expressed disappointment with Mr. Obama’s performance over the past few years, and concern about what he has described as Mr. Romney’s shifts in views over time.

In announcing his endorsement, Mr. Bloomberg listed the various steps Mr. Obama had taken over the last four years to confront the issue of climate change, including pushing regulations that seek to curtail emissions from cars and power plants. But the mayor cited other reasons for endorsing Mr. Obama, including the president’s support for abortion rights and for same-sex couples, two high-priority issues for the mayor.

At the same time, Mr. Bloomberg said he might have endorsed Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, except for the fact that the Republican had abandoned positions he once publicly held.

“In the past he has taken sensible positions on immigration, illegal guns, abortion rights and health care – but he has reversed course on all of them, and is even running against the very health care model he signed into law in Massachusetts,” the mayor said of Mr. Romney.

Mr. Bloomberg did not endorse a presidential candidate in 2008, when Mr. Obama ran against Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona.

Even in his endorsement, the mayor continued to express criticism of the president. He said that Mr. Obama had fallen short of his 2008 campaign promise to be a problem-solver and consensus builder, noting that he “devoted little time” to creating a coalition of centrists in Washington who could find common ground on important issues like illegal guns, immigration, tax reform and deficit reduction.

“Rather than uniting the country around a message of shared sacrifice,” Mr. Bloomberg said of Mr. Obama, “he engaged in partisan attacks and has embraced a divisive populist agenda focused more on redistributing income than creating it.”

In a statement, Mr. Obama said he was “honored to have Mayor Bloomberg’s endorsement.” The president acknowledged Mr. Bloomberg’s chief concern, saying climate change was “a threat to our children’s future, and we owe it to them to do something about it.”

“While we may not agree on every issue,” the president added, “Mayor Bloomberg and I agree on the most important issues of our time.”

And, alluding to the damage from the hurricane, Mr. Obama said: “He has my continued commitment that this country will stand by New York in its time of need. And New Yorkers have my word that we will recover, we will rebuild, and we will come back stronger.”

The endorsement is the latest effort by Mr. Bloomberg to affect the national political debate as he nears the twilight of his tenure in City Hall.

Last month, the mayor announced that he was creating his own “super PAC” to support candidates from either party, as well as independents, who he believed are devoted to his brand of nonideological problem solving, and who supported same-sex marriage, tougher gun laws or school reform. A billionaire, Mr. Bloomberg said he would spend from $10 million to $15 million of his money in highly competitive state, local and Congressional races.

[Gandalf]

Other than those who have US Passports, Israel needs to keep its nose out of US elections.

Please elaborate on this. Why do they need to "keep their nose out" of US elections?

[Luke Skywalker]

Nate Silver now gives Obama 300 electoral votes.

[Dalton]

Nate Silver now gives Obama 300 electoral votes.

Just updated 45 minutes ago. Obama jumped up to 303 EVs with an 81% chance. Florida is at 55% Romney.

[CaptJodan]

Nate Silver now gives Obama 300 electoral votes.

Just updated 45 minutes ago. Obama jumped up to 303 EVs with an 81% chance. Florida is at 55% Romney.

Just saw that. The gap seems to be closing. But I wonder if that's just because of the early voting (which I did today). Could that gap be closing simply because of the early voting count, but swing back once Republicans start voting in droves on the 6th?

Edit: I mean for FL specifically, not for the general country.