Meanwhile in spain - Catalan independence movement

[mr friendly guy]

Recently someone posted an article about independence movements in spain with regards to Catalan. Well a few things have changed. Catalan will go to an election on Nov 25 with the current regional leader promising to organise a referendum. In terms of how likely to succeed, if the polls are accurate, then it will. Wiki has summarised some surveys, but essentially the yes vote in the latest polls are between 50.4 to 51.1%. The no vote is actually less than 25%. The undecided portion is larger than the no vote.

The Spanish government has said such a move is illegal. Naturally pro democratic organisations aren't making a fuss, because free <insert region here> only applies to nations we don't like. Back to the topic, there have been threats to internationalise the issue and involve the EU if Spain blocks the referendum. This is interesting in itself, since apparently the EU has no provision for a member breaking apart. From what I understand, the new state should reapply for EU membership, but it needs the approval of other states, in which case Spain would likely object. The Catalan's counter argument, according to an Al Jazeera video is that individual Catalans have EU citizenship ( even if it is due to Spanish membership). As such they argue they can't lose citizenship once they already have it. I am no legal expert so I will leave it well alone.

What do European members think?

[Irbis]

*shrug* There is the fact Spain did not recognize independence of Kosovo, so you can't accuse them of hypocrisy in the matter. Still, I think Europe as a whole needs more unity, not less, but if such unity can be achieved by tighter union of euroregions, so be it. As it is, European Union is too lax to stop crisis in something the size of Spain, it will be both too lax and the concerned entity might be too weak if we have a crisis in smaller state like Catalonia.

And, yeah, the only way to leave EU should be by referendum, like Greenland did. Areas that got entry already, like Scotland and Catalonia, should remain in by default unless they wish to leave. Giving the state most interested in status quo power to veto continued membership isn't terribly democratic.

[Lord Zentei]

This attitude of "Europe needs more unity, not less" coupled with "if that means <obnoxious bullshit XYZ>, then so be it" is IMHO a major source of the malaise that's plaguing Europe and the general disillusionment that people have with its institutions. After all, who cares what the people actually want, as long as you can better achieve the abstract ideals of the day?

As an aside, the Spaniards were probably thinking of their own regions when they said "no" to Kosovo independence; they are probably all too acutely aware of such parallels with all the regional movements over there.

[K. A. Pital]

This attitude of "Europe needs more unity, not less" coupled with "if that means <obnoxious bullshit XYZ>, then so be it" is IMHO a major source of the malaise that's plaguing Europe and the general disillusionment that people have with its institutions. After all, who cares what the people actually want, as long as you can better achieve the abstract ideals of the day?

As an aside, the Spaniards were probably thinking of their own regions when they said "no" to Kosovo independence; they are probably all too acutely aware of such parallels with all the regional movements over there.

I have been saying that for quite a while. Break up, default, et cetera but at least you'll be independent and you won't be blaming Merkel Troopers for everything.

But no, apparently a free-travel zone is not enough, you need to have that common currency... what for? An exercise in futility. Sure, it will complicate some transactions, but it will certainly eliminate the current situation when a bunch of nations are being called PIGS. The European monetary union is a structure which has brought no benefits to the periphery except for massive economy-wide bubbles which have burst and left wastelands and abandoned cities in their wake; the periphery nations, all of them, should be free to leave if they so desire.

Spain's breakup might not be beneficial to Spain as a whole, but who is to judge the sustainability of a small state? Iceland survives, after all, and so do many other small nations.

[Sea Skimmer]

More nations then Spain are likely to oppose this in the EU, Britain, the Baltic states, and Belgium would all have reasons to object that I can think of off hand; while Italy would probably be voting yes in giant bold lettings in hopes it can gain the power to expel Sicily.

Catalan has a population of over 7 million people, so they'd be multiple times the size of the smallest EU states. They would not be large no, but the population of say Belgium is 11 million and they've been independent for a few hundred years. The problem is what happens when certain parts of Catalan don't want to be independent. Votes that are barely past a majority are not a good basis for national breakup. Kosovo is hardly a shining beacon of success on this.

[Irbis]

This attitude of "Europe needs more unity, not less" coupled with "if that means <obnoxious bullshit XYZ>, then so be it" is IMHO a major source of the malaise that's plaguing Europe and the general disillusionment that people have with its institutions. After all, who cares what the people actually want, as long as you can better achieve the abstract ideals of the day?

I specifically mentioned democracy two or three times - because people should *get* what they want. But, need for tighter union is a fact, and burying your head in the sand won't change it, regardless of what populists promise. Small states in the times of crisis end up like Iceland or Greece, the only thing that can counteract it is unity in bigger states or unity in bigger union of smaller regions. Small regions in loose binds is recipe for disaster, as history proved time and time again. These are not abstract ideals, this is economic reality.

The European monetary union is a structure which has brought no benefits to the periphery except for massive economy-wide bubbles which have burst and left wastelands and abandoned cities in their wake; the periphery nations, all of them, should be free to leave if they so desire.

Yeah, only big increase in trade and competitiveness, as opposed to Iceland's "prosperity" which was forced to *beg* to let them join the euro

Periphery does not consist of Greece alone, you know. Maybe look at pre-crisis Ireland or Estonia?

More nations then Spain are likely to oppose this in the EU, Britain, the Baltic states, and Belgium would all have reasons to object that I can think of off hand; while Italy would probably be voting yes in giant bold lettings in hopes it can gain the power to expel Sicily.

UK, maybe, but Baltic states? Seriously, Poland has larger independence movements than they do, and here, the topic is marginal at best, until it comes to another ritual bashing of Silesia for lack of patriotism.

[Sea Skimmer]

The Baltic's are all pretty paranoid about Russian nationalists agitating breakaway attempts last I checked. A serious threat, maybe not, but giving them a foot in the door isn't going to be appealing.

[K. A. Pital]

Small states in the times of crisis end up like Iceland or Greece, the only thing that can counteract it is unity in bigger states or unity in bigger union of smaller regions.

Iceland is not having same problems as Greece and they survived these years without EU bailouts.

Yeah, only big increase in trade and competitiveness, as opposed to Iceland's "prosperity" which was forced to *beg* to let them join the euro

"Big increase in competitiveness" - you meant a decrease in competitiveness of their industries and de-industrialization of the periphery, which touched Greece, Spain and Portugal, basically bankrupting their industries in favour of bying German (!) goods in credit? Iceland may want to join the EU, but they have survived the last 3 years without inter-EMU cash transfers like the Greek or other bailout funds. Whoops.

Periphery does not consist of Greece alone, you know. Maybe look at pre-crisis Ireland or Estonia?

And what of them? Ireland is a wreck now too, with ghost districts. The whole "prosperity" was revolving around disproportionate employment in construction:

During the property bubble, a disproportionate number of people were employed in the construction industry. As that has contracted and other manufacturing moved offshore, unemployment by May 2009 was at 11.4%,[46] and had reached 14.3% by September 2011.[47] The Ireland-based ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) estimates it will reach around 17%.

[mr friendly guy]

*shrug* There is the fact Spain did not recognize independence of Kosovo, so you can't accuse them of hypocrisy in the matter.

Read my OP again. I had the Spanish government in mind with their non recognition of Kosovo so I didn't mention them, but mentioned pro democracy forces in general. That being said Spanish courts recognise Tibet as independent, so it will be interesting to see what their courts interpret of possible referendum attempts.

[Vaporous]

Italy would probably be voting yes in giant bold lettings in hopes it can gain the power to expel Sicily.

I don't understand. Why wouldn't the central government have the power to not administer a region? I can understand separatism being opposed by the state, but if they don't actually want a section of the country, then what are the Sicilians going to do, fight a War of Anti-Expulsion?

[Sea Skimmer]

In most countries the government does not have the power to strip citizens of citizenship unilaterally, which is what expelling a region would be. I don't know on Italy specifically, but I'm pretty sure the EU forbids such activity as a violation of human rights. I'd be completely amazed if it was deemed legal.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Periphery does not consist of Greece alone, you know. Maybe look at pre-crisis Ireland or Estonia?

Why should we compare a pre-crisis situation with the current one? Currently, they're all in the shitter with Greece having the honour of jumping in first. But this is a discussion that has been had before.

[Sidewinder]

The problem is what happens when certain parts of Catalan don't want to be independent. Votes that are barely past a majority are not a good basis for national breakup. Kosovo is hardly a shining beacon of success on this.

Is this part of Northern Ireland's (Ulster's) problem? Pro-British Protestants and Pro-Liberation Catholics being roughly equal in number there, muddling the issue of whether the region should remain part of Britain, or reunite with Ireland?

[Lord Zentei]

I specifically mentioned democracy two or three times - because people should *get* what they want. But, need for tighter union is a fact, and burying your head in the sand won't change it, regardless of what populists promise. Small states in the times of crisis end up like Iceland or Greece, the only thing that can counteract it is unity in bigger states or unity in bigger union of smaller regions. Small regions in loose binds is recipe for disaster, as history proved time and time again. These are not abstract ideals, this is economic reality.

Are you so wrapped up in your propaganda that you go and cite the opinion of prevailing political elites as "fact"? As an aside, Iceland has recovered more quickly than the Euro-periphery.

[Lord Zentei]

Yeah, only big increase in trade and competitiveness, as opposed to Iceland's "prosperity" which was forced to *beg* to let them join the euro

Oh, can't believe that I missed this one earlier.

FYI: it is the current social democrat government which begged to join the Euro. This is because the EU has been their wet dream for quite a long while, almost to the point that it's one of their defining agendas. Most people in Iceland do NOT want to join the Euro. You don't know what you're talking about.

[K. A. Pital]

Most people in Iceland do NOT want to join the Euro. You don't know what you're talking about.

Indeed, didn't the government basically "decide" against a referendum?

Says it all.

Yes, that is clearly THE PEOPLE dragging Iceland into the EU to "repay debts" (as for which, again the people of Iceland have spoken out against repaying anything)... not the government. Other polls have indicated that like two-thirds of Iceland's population are against EU ascension.

"Crying for help", I can hear it from here.

[Lord Zentei]

Indeed, didn't the government basically "decide" against a referendum?

They saw the writing on the wall, so they backtracked.

Alas, now they're milking the collapse and people's resentment thereof to try and make changes to the constitution, a move that I'm deeply skeptical of, more so due to the bullshit methods employed.

[mr friendly guy]

Interesting article about the Catalans living in nearby France

Catalonia vote: The French who see Barcelona as their capital
By Petroc Trelawny
BBC News, Laroque des Alberes, France

More than five million Spanish Catalans will be voting in parliamentary elections on Sunday, and many are expected to favour pro-independence parties. Thousands of Catalans also live on the French side of the border - they won't have a vote but they are still closely involved.

In Laroque des Alberes there is a road named after Marshall Joseph Joffre, the World War I soldier whose victories are recalled on streets from Paris to Nice.

Like towns and cities across the country, Laroque has a Rue du 14 Juillet and a Place de la Republique as well.

But there is one difference. Whereas French street signs are usually blue and white, in Laroque the text is bright red, set against a rich yellow background - the colours of Catalonia.

Continue reading the main story
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Start Quote


The French government is too centralist”

Jordi Vera
Perpignan city councillor
This bustling place with a rough-and-ready bar sitting just around the corner from a Michelin-starred restaurant and three bakers competing for business, is just a few miles from the Spanish border.

Or to be more precise, the border with Catalonia, where a well-established nationalist movement has a support base that is rapidly growing.

Historically the Principality of Catalonia straddled the modern border. But after the French beat Spain at the Battle of Dunkirk in 1658, a treaty ceded the northern parts of Catalonia to the French crown, and the area has remained under the control of Paris ever since.

But in Laroque and communities across the region, locals have never forgotten their heritage.

The Sardana, a rather languid, complicated Catalan folk dance, is performed in the Place de la Republique. And the Catalan language has never died, even though for a period it was illegal.

At Claude's bar, where local rose wine is dispensed in brightly painted jugs filled from large plastic barrels, a group of older residents sit outside in the autumn sunshine, their conversation flipping between languages.

Around 30% of the population here speak Catalan, with more than 50% able to understand it.

It is just a short drive to Perpignan - the second biggest Catalan city, after Barcelona.

The surrealist artist Salvador Dali, born across the border in Figueres, called Perpignan's railway station "the centre of the world". He would sit in its cool ticket hall seeking inspiration.

A few blocks from the station are the local offices of the CDC, the Catalan political party that leads the coalition in power, in Barcelona. But it is a force here as well, with 30 elected representatives, including nine mayors.

"The French government is too centralist," says Jordi Vera, leader of the French part of the CDC, and a Perpignan city councillor. "Paris is 500 miles (800km) away. Barcelona is our capital."


In Barcelona the CDC wants Catalonia to determine its own future, away from Madrid, and with independent membership of the European Union.

Upwards of one and a half million marched earlier this year in support of independence. But even if Catalonia eventually becomes a sovereign state, Vera does not see Perpignan and the surrounding area becoming a part of it - ceding from France is not on the agenda.

"What we want is a new relationship so that business, trade, transport and tourism can be co-ordinated across the region," he says.

There is much to gain. This is one of the poorest parts of France - Catalonia is one of the richest parts of Spain

Vera asks me how I think the Scottish will vote in their referendum in 2014, before continuing: "This is an historic time for the Catalan people. This region is a laboratory to test how a Europe of smaller states might work."

He too drifts between French and Catalan in his conversation. "Catalan could become an official language of the European Union," he says. "That would mean France would finally have to recognise it."

Paris might also have to rethink what it calls this area. Currently the departement (administrative region), stretching from mountainside to shining Mediterranean is officially titled the Pyrenees Orientales. Also officially acceptable is "Le Pays Catalan", the Catalan Country.

"A rather patronising French confection," one of the drinkers in Claude's tells me. "Northern Catalonia is the preferred title of those who seek closer ties with Barcelona."

From the outskirts of Laroque, you can look across the vineyards to Canigou, the 9,000-foot (2,700m) mountain peak that holds special significance for Catalans.

Snow has fallen over night, but is quickly melting away. I am told of the groups of Catalan schoolchildren, brought across an international border in order to climb one of their nation's geographical icons.

"But why doesn't everyone speak Catalan?" asks one child, shocked at the dominance of all things French.

But in recent years, more and more houses here have started displaying bright red and yellow flags, Catalan specialties take pride of place in local traiteurs (restaurants) - and the Sardana is being danced with a new enthusiasm.

The vote is tomorrow so it should be interesting. I wonder how the rest of Europe will respond if the pro-independence parties win around 2/3 of the seats as predicted and they demand a referendum.

[Sea Skimmer]

Everyone knows the EU is far too efficient and would benefit from another veto at the table!

I noticed Eta is also now finally offering to disarm, now keeping in mind they never had that much support, I have to wonder though if they now feel like that if Catalan succeeds they'll finally have a chance of doing the same in a legitimate fashion.

[mr friendly guy]

The EU has dreams of expanding anyway, so having another vote now isn't much different than when they plan to add a couple more votes to the table. Not that I think having so many decision makers is optimal, but thats the way they want to play it.

[Sea Skimmer]

The EU also has persistent dreams of removing unanimity from all decision making on the European Council, and making Israel a member, so what the EU dreams and what is remotely connected to reality may differ.

[Murazor]

I noticed Eta is also now finally offering to disarm, now keeping in mind they never had that much support, I have to wonder though if they now feel like that if Catalan succeeds they'll finally have a chance of doing the same in a legitimate fashion.

Any hopes in this regard are damn faint ones.

Rather, it is a matter of the long-time members who were more or less doomed to a life of continued terrorist activity or prison for blood crimes having mostly been captured, their support/supply networks largely dismantled and their political sympathizers moving away from the hard line.

[mr friendly guy]

Depending on who you talk to the glass is either half empty (separatists fail) or half full (Nationalists clear winners.)

Basically the separatists parties are expected to win 74-80 seats out of the 135 seat parliament. One needs 68 seats to hold the referendum according to the sources I have read. However no single party has enough seats to do it on their own, including incumberant Artur Mas's Convergència i Unió (CiU) party, who is actually weakened, but still expected to form a government with other partners. The thing is, the separatists parties don't like each other, but have not ruled out working together. In other words, the majority wants independence, but their forces are divided. Interesting times for Europe.

[Teebs]

The EU also has persistent dreams of removing unanimity from all decision making on the European Council, and making Israel a member, so what the EU dreams and what is remotely connected to reality may differ.

Wait what?

[Spoonist]

The EU also has persistent dreams of removing unanimity from all decision making on the European Council, and making Israel a member, so what the EU dreams and what is remotely connected to reality may differ.

Wait what?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_enl ... ion#Israel

The principle of Israel joining the European Union has been supported by some politicians in both Israel and Europe, including the former Israeli Foreign Minister, Silvan Shalom,[160] Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman[161] and former Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi.[162] Two Italian MEPs are currently campaigning in favour of Israeli membership.[163] An opinion poll in 2004 showed that 85% of Israelis would support an application for membership.[164] Another survey in 2011 showed support for EU membership is 81%.[165]

The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself proposes instead the closest possible integration "just short of full membership." Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon. European public opinion of some of Israel's policies—especially those related to the aforementioned areas of conflict is, in general, poor.[166] Proponents of Israel's accession to the EU suggest that such accession would help promote peace, because being a part of a strong alliance like the EU would allow Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories with no fear of risking its security.[