Greece aims at saving 7 bln euros by cutting red tape

[Spoonist]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 012_472659

Greece's slow and burdensome bureaucracy is estimated to cost the cash-strapped country a total of 14 billion euros a year, or 6.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) -- almost double the European Union average of 3a.5 percent -- according to conclusions of a recent meeting between Administrative Reform Minister Antonis Manitakis, Development and Competitiveness Minister Costis Hatzidakis and a team from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Athens.

The OECD has sent a team of advisers to Athens to work with the government on cutting red tape, with the aim of reducing bureaucracy by 25 percent by the end of 2013, which would mean savings of as much as 7 billion euros.

I found that interesting so I went and checked out if the OECD had a pre2008 report and found this:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_ME ... ?locale=en
Even before the current crisis, that is a pretty sad/strange read.
Scandinavian countries+UK have an administrative cost of <2%, france+germany have around 3.7, while the poorer balkan regions have >6%
Combine that with the corruption reports and the cost to do business in the poorer regions is staggering.

[Enigma]

If Greece's bureaucracy is costing them 14 billion euros a year, and they want to reduce it by 25%, how does that add up to 7 billion euros?

[Spoonist]

If Greece's bureaucracy is costing them 14 billion euros a year, and they want to reduce it by 25%, how does that add up to 7 billion euros?

Its politician/journalist math.

Check the link to OECD, with the expected cuts in admin it is speculated that it will give a boost for small businesses to the value of 3-4 billion euros. So half in cutting costs and the other half in magical new revenue.
However that was before crisis estimates so ...

[ryacko]

Has anyone heard of the multiplier effect?

Or realize that cutting slow bureaucracy without reforming procedures simply slows things down further?

[Haruko]

Are they sure they don't want to just get creative with their math again and have Goldman Sachs run off with their money?

[Thanas]

^Well played.

That being said, a small part of the higher percentage may also be explained by the fact that some tasks of Government don't scale down well.

[cosmicalstorm]

Still, none of this will work. To me it seems that Greece's current destiny is at best to follow Argentina's path, and at worst civil war.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Are they sure they don't want to just get creative with their math again and have Goldman Sachs run off with their money?

Quiet, child. We're fooling those stupid Europeans with our razor sharp wit.

Still, none of this will work. To me it seems that Greece's current destiny is at best to follow Argentina's path, and at worst civil war.

We're in a different position from Argentina right now, seeing as we still have the Euro, have a much smaller economy, etc. As to your worst case scenario, I'd really like to know who will wage that civil war. If you'd said instead "splits from the EU and becomes a banana republic", that would be a lot easier to accept.

[K. A. Pital]

Splitting from the EMU doesn't necessarily mean a banana republic. Does Czech Republic look like a banana one? It's certainly far from the living standard of the all-powerful Center, but neither does it qualify for that derogatory nickname.

[Irbis]

As to your worst case scenario, I'd really like to know who will wage that civil war.

Golden Dawn trying coup d'etat or anti-left/foreigner pogroms?

Splitting from the EMU doesn't necessarily mean a banana republic. Does Czech Republic look like a banana one? It's certainly far from the living standard of the all-powerful Center, but neither does it qualify for that derogatory nickname.

Since when Czech Republic split from EMU?

Also, speaking from perspective of someone living right next to Czech border, Czech leadership is fucking Banana Republic quality, starting from that right wing imbecile Václav Klaus, current president, whose cronies (including another religious loony, Petr Nečas, pushed by Klaus to be Prime Minister) are preparing to hand fucking Catholic Church 3.5 billion Euro now and another 2 billion over 30 years. That happens in a country with 82% atheists and 9% practising Catholics. To pay that, Klaus and his imbeciles plan to end free university studies, raise taxes and medicine prices, lower retirement funds, but hey, at least Church will triple it's possessions!

If that's not Banana Republic standard, I don't know what is

[Sea Skimmer]

The Czech Republic never adapted the Euro, that plan was suspended indefinitely years ago. I guess your perspective is pretty damn bad.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Splitting from the EMU doesn't necessarily mean a banana republic. Does Czech Republic look like a banana one? It's certainly far from the living standard of the all-powerful Center, but neither does it qualify for that derogatory nickname.

We were discussing worst-case scenario.

Golden Dawn trying coup d'etat or anti-left/foreigner pogroms?

Civil wars require at least two factions willing and able to kill each other, which we don't nearly have today. And you can only stage a coup if you have the support of the people, the army, or another institution (monarchies do this often). Seeing as the Golden Dawn has no support in the army, their 7% of the vote will at best only double, and we no longer have a king, I'd like to see them using the cops to take over the country. But why should they even try? They've got MP wages and benefits, their party receives funds equal to their seats, and they have immunity from prosecution. They've spent far too long eating shit as a fringe group; now they've got the expensive suits, so they'll go to any length to flaunt them, but won't risk them.

If that's not Banana Republic standard, I don't know what is

US Evangelicals standard.

[K. A. Pital]

The Czech Republic never adapted the Euro, that plan was suspended indefinitely years ago. I guess your perspective is pretty damn bad.

That's a good idea, but paying the Church anything from the state funds is rather crazy.

To pay that, Klaus and his imbeciles plan to end free university studies, raise taxes and medicine prices, lower retirement funds, but hey, at least Church will triple it's possessions!

That's pretty crazy and yeah, definetely in the banana land. I must say Eastern Europe and Russia (and Central Asia) have undergone the worst phenomena of the recent times - a religious revival. Not that previous revivals were any better, but this one is happening right now.

[cosmicalstorm]

Still, none of this will work. To me it seems that Greece's current destiny is at best to follow Argentina's path, and at worst civil war.

We're in a different position from Argentina right now, seeing as we still have the Euro, have a much smaller economy, etc. As to your worst case scenario, I'd really like to know who will wage that civil war. If you'd said instead "splits from the EU and becomes a banana republic", that would be a lot easier to accept.

Whats your worst case scenario for Greece? Can you elaborate. Personally I would simply not be surprised if it erupted into some weird civil war when all the money runs dry. Eventually there will not be another rescue package, or it will be coming but hyper-inflated to worthlessness.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Apparently you didn't notice how I said that becoming a banana republic is more plausible. You also didn't notice how I said that a civil war requires at least two armed groups ready to kill each other, which Greece doesn't have at the moment. But apparently, I am the one who has to elaborate.

[ryacko]

When the money runs dry, very simple things will occur.
Unessential workers will have to work without pay.
"Essential" (likely the least essential) will continue to be paid from meager tax revenues.

Society begins to collapse. Services begin to halt, people die from common ailments, mass blackouts. That sort of thing is more likely.

But you know, revolution? That sort of thing would only happen in China.

[Boeing 757]

When the money runs dry, very simple things will occur.
Unessential workers will have to work without pay.
"Essential" (likely the least essential) will continue to be paid from meager tax revenues.

Society begins to collapse. Services begin to halt, people die from common ailments, mass blackouts. That sort of thing is more likely.

But you know, revolution? That sort of thing would only happen in China.

It has happened once before in modern Greek history when things hadn't worked out...I reckon that it can happen again if things become truly sour.

[ryacko]

Yes, but unlike then there are European peacekeepers. What else is the European Defence Agency for, as well as the EUFOR?

Any revolution that does occur will likely burn the European flag, hang the MPs of government from lamp poles, and ... forfeit state debts.

It'll be like the French revolution all over again. Except this time the rebels will be crushed quicker, faster, and more discriminately.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Also unlike the Polytechnic Uprising in '73, the country now has a democratically elected government.

What else? Crime will rise, the more unfortunate ones die in the streets as social welfare vanishes completely, the country is stripped of skilled people who emigrate in droves... these are worse versions of things that are already happening, of course. I don't want to dwell on things that might happen, but still have not.

[K. A. Pital]

EUFOR invading Greece? This will bring the collapse of the EU faster than you say oh shit. Ryacko, why? This board has been feeling the sheer insanity of your posts for quite a while.

[Stark]

But Stas... They'll BURN THE FLAG.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

Ryacko, why? This board has been feeling the sheer insanity of your posts for quite a while.

What a guy, eh?

[ryacko]

EUFOR invading Greece? This will bring the collapse of the EU faster than you say oh shit. Ryacko, why? This board has been feeling the sheer insanity of your posts for quite a while.

Someone says coup, I respond that the rest of Europe won't agree.

If the Greek police get overwhelmed by the next wave of austerity rioting, and after that the Greek army, is it unusual for troops from neighboring states to squash the violence?

[Boeing 757]

First off, I doubt that it'll come down to a popular uprising any time soon...so don't rush off to prep up the tanks and jets just yet. I know the Greeks can be crazy (I'm one of them, so I know lol), but they still want to remain within the EU and keep their democratically elected government, despite the strong animosity brewing up there lately. All that I was saying is that if living conditions from the norm of what they're accustomed to took a turn very much for the worse, then you could bet on it that rebellion sentiment would likely grow over time. But I mean they would have to become bad--really bad for that happen--and that obviously hasn't happened yet luckily enough.

Second, the least thing that the EU needs to be thinking about right now is how to make its economic and political problems hundredfold worse than they already are, and I don't know about you, but if I were an EU politician, I would deem EUFOR being sent in to crush an uprising in one of its member-states a huge clusterfuck if not a huge nightmare of epic proportions. Of course, making such a decision would probably hinge entirely upon whether or not the conflict bore the potential to engulf more of Europe than just Greece itself, but realistically speaking there are so many factors that we could bring into such a scenario that it becomes nothing other than a waste of time to dwell over it.

[ryacko]

First off, I doubt that it'll come down to a popular uprising any time soon...so don't rush off to prep up the tanks and jets just yet. I know the Greeks can be crazy (I'm one of them, so I know lol), but they still want to remain within the EU and keep their democratically elected government, despite the strong animosity brewing up there lately. All that I was saying is that if living conditions from the norm of what they're accustomed to took a turn very much for the worse, then you could bet on it that rebellion sentiment would likely grow over time. But I mean they would have to become bad--really bad for that happen--and that obviously hasn't happened yet luckily enough.

Second, the least thing that the EU needs to be thinking about right now is how to make its economic and political problems hundredfold worse than they already are, and I don't know about you, but if I were an EU politician, I would deem EUFOR being sent in to crush an uprising in one of its member-states a huge clusterfuck if not a huge nightmare of epic proportions. Of course, making such a decision would probably hinge entirely upon whether or not the conflict bore the potential to engulf more of Europe than just Greece itself, but realistically speaking there are so many factors that we could bring into such a scenario that it becomes nothing other than a waste of time to dwell over it.

There is less unemployment in Detroit then in Greece which has 26%.
Greece has an economic contraction rate of -7%. Somehow they still manage to have inflation of 1%. I doubt conditions are as tenable as you presume. You also presume that the opinions of a majority of the population actually matter. In times of uncertainty and violence, they can be cowed into accepting the desires of others.

How is EUFOR any different then NORTHCOM providing support in the wake of riots? I doubt there are as many factors as you would suggest.
I bet that if civil order breaks down to such an extent that the Greek government declares a state of emergency and is incapable of collecting taxes (a natural result of an area mired in rioting), EUFOR will be called on to respond.