North Korea "Targeting" the US

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North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Broomstick »

This caught my ear on the TV new this morning, here's a print version;

North Korea Vows Nuclear Test and Threatens U.S.
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea vowed on Thursday to launch more long-range rockets and conduct its third nuclear test, saying that it would build a capability to strike the United States in the wake of the United Nations Security Council’s tightened sanctions against the country.

The North’s threat marked the boldest challenge its new, untested leader, Kim Jong-un, has posed at both his country’s longtime foe, the United States, and its last remaining major ally, China, and rattled governments in Northeast Asia that are undergoing sensitive transitions of power.

In a statement issued through state-run media, the National Defense Commission, the North’s highest governing agency, headed by Mr. Kim, said that “a variety of satellites and long-range rockets which will be launched by the D.P.R.K. one after another and a nuclear test of higher level which will be carried out by it” will be “targeted” at “the U.S., the sworn enemy of the Korean people.”

The statement, which used the acronym for the North’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, did not clarify when it would conduct such a test, which would be the first since Mr. Kim came to power following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011.

But citing preparations at the Punggye test site in northeastern North Korea, Army Col. Wi Yong-seob, deputy spokesman of the Defense Ministry of South Korea, said on Thursday, “North Korea can conduct a nuclear test as soon as its leadership makes up its mind.”

North Korea had previously hinted at the possibility of conducting a nuclear test, as its Foreign Ministry did on Wednesday when it issued a scathing statement rejecting a unanimous resolution that the Security Council adopted on Tuesday. The resolution tightened sanctions and condemned North Korea’s Dec. 12 rocket launching as a violation of earlier resolutions that banned the country from conducting any tests involving ballistic missile technology.

North Korea has since declared that it would shun any talk on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, adding that it would not give up its nuclear weapons until “the denuclearization of the world is realized.”

The North’s statement on Thursday indicated that Mr. Kim, despite recent hints of economic reform and openness in North Korea, was likely to follow the pattern his father, Kim Jong il, had established when he ran the country: a cycle of a rocket launching, U.N. condemnation and nuclear test.

“It’s a major test for Kim Jong-un,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University in Seoul. “Unlike the rocket launching in December, which the North has said was conducted because it was his father’s dying wish, a nuclear test will be Kim Jong-un’s decision, one for which he will be held responsible.”

By a “nuclear test of higher level,” North Korea most likely meant that it was seeking the technology of building nuclear warheads small enough to mount on long-range missiles, analysts here said. They said that North Korea could detonate a uranium bomb this time to demonstrate its ability to produce weapons-grade uranium. The North’s twp previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009, used some of its limited stockpile of plutonium.

A nuclear test would compel both Washington and Seoul to take a tough stance, dispelling hopes that Mr. Kim might use the inaugurations of new government in Washington and Seoul to open a new path of engagement.

Glyn Davies, Washington’s special envoy on North Korea, warned on Thursday that a nuclear test would be “a mistake and a missed opportunity” for North Korea.

“This is not a moment to increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” said Mr. Davies, who was visiting Seoul to coordinate the North Korea policies of President Barack Obama’s second-term administration and the incoming government of President-elect Park Geun-hye in Seoul. From Seoul, Mr. Davies will move on to Beijing and then to Tokyo to continue policy consultations with the new governments there.

President Lee Myung-bak, who will hand over the South Korean presidency to Ms. Park next month, said on Thursday that his “biggest worry” was that North Korea might launch a military provocation in time with the changes of hands in government in Seoul.

On Thursday, the North expressed bitterness at China and Russia’s endorsement of the U.N. resolution, denouncing “those big countries” for “ failing to come to their senses.” It said that North Korea’s drive to rebuild its moribund economy and its rocket program, until now billed as a peaceful space project, will now “all orientate toward the purpose of winning in the all-out action for foiling the U.S. and all other hostile forces’ maneuvers.”

“They are making a brigandish assertion that what they launched were satellites but what other country launched was a long-range missile,” the statement said, insisting that North Korea had a sovereign right to test rockets.

Moon Soon-bo, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute, said North Korea’s harsh reaction reflected the pain the isolated regime felt by the new resolution, which expanded the number of ways that countries can interdict and inspect cargo bound for the North.

North Korea said Unha-3 rocket it launched in December put a scientific satellite into orbit. But Washington said the launching was a cover for testing technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles. After analyzing the debris of the rocket North Korea fired in December to put a satellite into orbit, South Korean officials said North Korea indigenously built crucial components of a missile that can fly more than 6,200 miles.

Analysts speculated on Thursday that North Korea might test-launch one of its KN-08 missiles. KN-08, first unveiled during a military parade in Pyongyang in April last year, is the North’s biggest missile deployed yet but has never been flight-tested, according to Seoul officials.
While I understand why a nation such as North Korea would want to acquire nuclear weapons, I can't help but think this isn't a good idea on their part. Most of the time they seem more bark than bite, but nonetheless, they do have nukes now. "Targeting" the US just doesn't strike me as sensible. Sure, we know the Norks hate the Yanks, technically they're still at war and are just "enjoying" a 50+ year ceasefire, and so on... but I'm pretty sure the reaction to an actual nuke hitting part of the US will make the reaction to 9/11 look a bit like a wet match.

Of course, while having their usual hate week against the Great Enemy they might, in fact, target closer adversaries. Or just make test demonstrations. Launch more junk into orbit. This isn't actual hot war we're talking about at this point. Even so, the North Koreans do seem to be building the capability to directly strike the US.

Thoughts on this?
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Thanas »

Well, in their mind the US is actively planning their downfall and is the colonial power propping up its southern neighbour. Given that any war would almost certainly include the US it makes sense they would focus what little retaliation capability they have on the US as well.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Thanas wrote:Well, in their mind the US is actively planning their downfall and is the colonial power propping up its southern neighbour. Given that any war would almost certainly include the US it makes sense they would focus what little retaliation capability they have on the US as well.
If we were actively planning their downfall we probably wouldn't have given them all that foreign aid. And we'd probably do a lot less plotting against them if they'd stop saying things like this.

I mean, I agree the US has it's share of the blame for the whole situation, but there are better things the North Koreans could do with their resources than work on being able to kill more people in a war they couldn't win either way.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Ralin »

I just missed the edit window, so I'll double post.

Ask yourself this. Suppose North Korea manages to come up with long-range rockets capable of nuking US cities. Have they really made themselves that much safer? Yeah, they can do a hell of a lot more damage that way, but realistically once they've shown that they can nuke da troops in South Korea and Japan I think that's enough retaliation capacity to keep themselves just as safe. There's a point of diminishing returns past which upping the ante doesn't help much.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Haruko »

Reminds me when LinkAsia, a program on LinkTV, featured an interview with an English diplomat, who pointed out that North Koreans commonly believe that the States is a dangerous, backwards place, and were astonished that the diplomat would risk his life by going there.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Ralin wrote:I just missed the edit window, so I'll double post.

Ask yourself this. Suppose North Korea manages to come up with long-range rockets capable of nuking US cities. Have they really made themselves that much safer? Yeah, they can do a hell of a lot more damage that way, but realistically once they've shown that they can nuke da troops in South Korea and Japan I think that's enough retaliation capacity to keep themselves just as safe. There's a point of diminishing returns past which upping the ante doesn't help much.
They may be looking for the ability to retaliate if the US were to go for a nuclear strike on Pyongyang, which I suppose is not wholly inconceivable if the North Koreans looked like they might win the ground-war.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Ralin wrote:If we were actively planning their downfall we probably wouldn't have given them all that foreign aid. And we'd probably do a lot less plotting against them if they'd stop saying things like this.

I mean, I agree the US has it's share of the blame for the whole situation, but there are better things the North Koreans could do with their resources than work on being able to kill more people in a war they couldn't win either way.
I am not saying that the US is to blame for the current situation in North Korea and I also support the US troop deployment there. I was stating how the North views things, not making a statement of fact. As should have been clear from the way my message was phrased.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Zixinus »

Thoughts on this?
That this is something we often see in Iran: saying something "outside" while it is actually targeted "inside". North Korea restarting a war with the US (or rather "braking the ceasire") and imaging the resulting scenario to be not tremendously detrimental to North Korea, or even the removal of Nortk Korea in some form, is only possible for the deeply delusional, Fox News viewers and Kaos Studios.

This is the same nation that cannot feed its own population without foreign aid. Or even keep the lights on during the night.
Reminds me when LinkAsia, a program on LinkTV, featured an interview with an English diplomat, who pointed out that North Koreans commonly believe that the States is a dangerous, backwards place, and were astonished that the diplomat would risk his life by going there.
The comic I've read "Pyongyang" tells of a cartoon animator whose studio outsourced some animating tasks to a North Korean studiol. The experiences he recounts tells a similar picture of the people in NK in general: they live in a fantasy world where the delusion is enforced by the state. How crazy the NK leadership, I do not know, but the people there are held behind a miniature iron curtain while they have propaganda shoved down their throat.

It is more likely that this is more of a circus they run to remind the rest of the world (and the USA) that they are still there and still dangerous, like a petulant child.
They may be looking for the ability to retaliate if the US were to go for a nuclear strike on Pyongyang, which I suppose is not wholly inconceivable if the North Koreans looked like they might win the ground-war.
A land-war against who? The US? Nato?
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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The US still has its BMD in Alaska, right?
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Aaron MkII wrote:The US still has its BMD in Alaska, right?
Yes. Plus all the Navy ships with SM-3.
Ralin wrote:Ask yourself this. Suppose North Korea manages to come up with long-range rockets capable of nuking US cities. Have they really made themselves that much safer? Yeah, they can do a hell of a lot more damage that way, but realistically once they've shown that they can nuke da troops in South Korea and Japan I think that's enough retaliation capacity to keep themselves just as safe. There's a point of diminishing returns past which upping the ante doesn't help much.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Zixinus wrote:A land-war against who? The US? Nato?
The South Koreans and the US forces deployed alongside them. And yes, I realise that the North Koreans would probably get their heads handed to them in a conventional battle long before it got to that point, but I'm not so sure that they realise that.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Zaune wrote:
Zixinus wrote:A land-war against who? The US? Nato?
The South Koreans and the US forces deployed alongside them. And yes, I realise that the North Koreans would probably get their heads handed to them in a conventional battle long before it got to that point, but I'm not so sure that they realise that.
I think they know it. They also have 600 guns and a whole lot of ballistic missiles in range of Seoul and they know we know that. The DPRK is not delusional when it comes to the balance of military power.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Stark »

Didn't America 'target' every country on earth? People who were afraid were isolated and called pacifists or fools. Nuclear politics ok for nobody except the US, business as usual.

Internal propaganda of totalitarian state vs actual threat. :lol: That Americans (even apparently intelligent ones) actually fear this is ... It's crazy.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Developing nuclear weapons might actually knock some sense in their heads. Having these things actually forces you to do calculations; what would you do if nuked, and general strategy. Basically, everyone with nuclear weapons realizes that they are more useful as a military capability than by actually using them, since you have too much to lose by doing so.

Also, I think it's quite crazy to fear a North Korean nuclear capability right now, since China will undoubtedly advise them to abstain from doing anything stupid.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Dr. Trainwreck wrote:Also, I think it's quite crazy to fear a North Korean nuclear capability right now, since China will undoubtedly advise them to abstain from doing anything stupid.
If North Korea's leadership listened to Chinese advice they would have taken the whole "White cat, black cat" thing to heart and started economic reforms a long time ago. Everything I've read and heard says that the North Korean government does whatever the hell the North Korean government pleases.
phongn wrote:Are you willing to trade Seoul for Anchorage?"
Did you mean Pyongyang for Anchorage or am I missing your point?
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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He's saying that the North Koreans will shell Seoul and probably destroy it in any war. Anchorage is one of the few targets that they could reach (for now).
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Flagg »

I live near Seattle, a prime target for North Korean missiles. This doesn't frighten me in the least because it's so obviousely them talking to their own people it's not funny. Turns out that Americans need to constantly be reminded that not everything "bad people" say is for our consumption.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Well here's an opportunity for the press to play up how safe the US is, pointing towards the nations massive nuclear weapons stockpile and all the BMD that's been invested in.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

Post by Flagg »

Aaron MkII wrote:Well here's an opportunity for the press to play up how safe the US is, pointing towards the nations massive nuclear weapons stockpile and all the BMD that's been invested in.
Yeah, dude. Telling people how safe they are sells a fuckton of papers, right? :P :wink:
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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For pity's sake, people, reporting that North Korean is spouting off again is not equal to the US fearing the DPRK and quaking in its boots. On the other hand, it would be foolish to ignore a nation that, however backward, crazy, and impoverished, is nonetheless attempting to develop a nuclear capacity.

Yes, clearly a lot of this is for internal consumption but the rocket launches are for the foreign audience - if was just for North Korea they could save a lot of money and effort by simply faking it to their internal audience and not actually launching anything.

The term "hate week" is a deliberate reference to Nineteen Eighty-Four which was required reading back in the late 1970's when I was in school but I have no idea if young folks still read it. There are some interesting parallels between the society of the novel and the society of the DPRK.

I'd like to think the people actually running North Korea have some level of both sanity and self-preservation. On the other hand, it doesn't take a whole lot of crazy to start trouble if you're talking weapons of some sort of mass destruction, be they nukes, chemicals, biologicals, or just a few hijacked airliners or a van full of a mix of diesel fuel and fertilizer. Of course, some of these alternatives are worse than others. I'd prefer the crazy killing be kept to a minimum.

At this point, I'd like to think the rationale for having nukes is to prevent invasion by superpower or a good sized coalition of nations. In which case you don't need rockets or even actual working nukes, just let everyone think you have a workable nuke and under the present reality your borders will remain intact, enabling you to do just about whatever you want to whoever is inside them. North Korea has done this, demonstrated that they have some sort of nuclear capability and some sort of crude bomb which should be more than enough to keep everyone else out, especially if they don't try to expand past their current borders.

It's the continued attempted development that has me a bit puzzled. Simply being able to lob missiles to South Korea or Japan should be plenty of deterrent in today's world by my reckoning, but then, I'm not a North Korean general so it's entirely possible they have a different viewpoint.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Broomstick wrote:It's the continued attempted development that has me a bit puzzled. Simply being able to lob missiles to South Korea or Japan should be plenty of deterrent in today's world by my reckoning, but then, I'm not a North Korean general so it's entirely possible they have a different viewpoint.
Pretty much the point I was trying to make. North Korea does have legitimate reason to be concerned about their safety and to think nukes would help improve it. Going from what's more or less a defensive weapon to actively being able to strike at the US doesn't. It just makes the US more inclined to do something stupid in response.

Just to be clear, I also think that the upper echelons of North Korea's leadership are made of sane, rational people who understand the situation their country is in and who mainly just want to survive and maintain their power and privileges. I've said that for awhile, since long before the Dear Leader died from working too hard on behalf of the Korean people. Hell, I've said that I thought the US wa more likely to restart the Korean War as long as Kim Jong-il was alive.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Ralin wrote: Did you mean Pyongyang for Anchorage or am I missing your point?
No, the comic is simply titled Pyongyang.
The South Koreans and the US forces deployed alongside them. And yes, I realise that the North Koreans would probably get their heads handed to them in a conventional battle long before it got to that point, but I'm not so sure that they realise that.
NK does have a fairly large army. but the USA alone outnumbers it. Besides South Korea, NK is connected by land to... the People's Republic of China. Neighbouring countries are Japan, which would be worse than attacking South Korea, and Russia. Plus Taiwan/Republic-China to the south.

The only number that NK has is "reserve personal", which probably just counts people that gone through conscript training.

So, where does the idea of "looks like they might win the ground battle come from?
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Broomstick wrote:It's the continued attempted development that has me a bit puzzled. Simply being able to lob missiles to South Korea or Japan should be plenty of deterrent in today's world by my reckoning, but then, I'm not a North Korean general so it's entirely possible they have a different viewpoint.
Put this way.

Suppose, during the Cuban missile crisis, the US had a nuclear deterrent capable of hitting Cuba, or Soviet-occupied Poland... but not of hitting the USSR itself. How would that impact our strategy? It would be very bad from the point of view of our leadership. Because the Soviets can afford to see those nations as expendable, and (ultimately) laugh off any threat we make to their satellites, as long as they get their way in the end.

It's a deterrent, but it's not nearly as good a one as being able to target your ultimate enemy directly. Especially if you're a totalitarian military dictator, who will probably tend to mirror-image the way other national leaders think. It's not like a North Korean general would flinch too hard at a threat to Japan or South Korea, if he were the one giving orders in the White House.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Ralin wrote:
phongn wrote:Are you willing to trade Seoul for Anchorage?"
Did you mean Pyongyang for Anchorage or am I missing your point?
Deterrence. Should the DPRK decide to head south, they might threaten the US (and regional allies like Japan) with nuclear weapons. "In order to defend Seoul, you have to risk sacrificing one of your own cities" (e.g. Anchorage or Seattle). This is nothing new, of course.
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Re: North Korea "Targeting" the US

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Haruko wrote:Reminds me when LinkAsia, a program on LinkTV, featured an interview with an English diplomat, who pointed out that North Koreans commonly believe that the States is a dangerous, backwards place, and were astonished that the diplomat would risk his life by going there.
Fair enough, we by and large think the same thing about them.

Kim Jong Il's government had a website to encourage tourism to North Korea, and to dispel the vicious propaganda surrounding their wonderful country. 50 bucks would get you a 'Friend of North Korea' badge. It was a real laugh, but now I can't find the site.
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