Captain Seafort wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:A lower hit rate on the British ships would probably have meant fewer magazine explosions, though; you can't score a 'critical hit' on a target you can't hit in the first place. So... combination of factors- if German gunnery had been worse, the British ships' fragility would not have mattered.
All it takes is one lucky hit. QM was only hit five times, whereas Tiger was hit 18 times. Tiger survived, QM didn't. If it hadn't been for the changes after Dogger Bank QM might have destroyed Seydlitz with one of her first two hits - it started exactly the type of turret fire that was responsible for the British battleruiser losses.
Agreed-
but you're still more likely to die of a turret fire when the enemy is hitting you 4% of the time than when they're hitting 2% of the time. It takes one lucky hit- it is not a foregone conclusion that the first (or tenth) hit you land is lucky. The more hits you land, the better your chances of getting lucky, so good gunnery counts.
In pre-dreadoughts, the ratio is totally unchanged, since they were outnumbered 4:3 in the first place.
Unlikely. In the event of heavy losses to the HSF, the predreadnoughts in the fleet would probably have suffered badly - one of them was lost at Jutland to a single torpedo hit in the night action. The RN, in contrast, didn't have a single predreadnought present.
Ah. I was simply imagining a purely abstract mathematical battle that sinks half the Royal Navy at 4:3 losses in the Germans' favor, not an actual Jutland reprise.
You're still right- we were talking about different things is all.
Dominarch's Hope wrote:That last sentence didnt actually answer the statement. You suppose that if British Gunnery were better, they would have been ok.
Please stop randomly capitalizing Nouns that don't need capital letters.
But in reality, Germany gunnery was superior and their ships tougher. They were getting hits on target quicker than the British and there ships kept firing for longer even after getting hit. What this means is that the number of British ships to fire at will decrease at a faster rate than than German ships. The more this happens, the more focused German gunnery is on fewer targets. But the British numbers mean that atleast at first and for the rest of the battle, they can fire at every German ship and most of them twice over.
The German advantages in these areas were
really fucking small, something I'm not quite sure you understand. You cannot model this as "German ships have twice as many hit points as British."
17 vs 32 Dreadies. Essentially equal armament. Possible durability towards the German side.
Translation: Germans lose badly if all ships from both sides show up. More realistically, only 50-60% of ships from either side are
at the battle in the first place. The Germans through great effort brought all but one of their operating dreadnoughts to Jutland. The British brought whatever happened to be out of the shop at that moment: 28 out of 32. Germans lose, because 28 ships is more than 17.
5 vs 10 Battlecruisers. Again, comparable armament. Severe survivability advantage to the German side. Gunnery also favoring the German side. The British Battlecruisers can be nearly written off, due to the fact that they can easily explode to just a handful of solid hits while the German BCs can take a fairly brutal pounding and keep returning fire. And the Germans would be getting hits in sooner. In an exclusive BC fight, its easily possible for the British to outright lose 2 ships before a single German ship is unable to fire back, possibly three. But the British suffer worse due to loss of fire saturation.
British battlecruisers cannot be written off, as witness the Battle of the Dogger Bank where British and German battlecruiser forces clashed directly. The odds were 5:3, the British won.
In fact, considering German BC durability, count them as Dreadies.
Bullshit. German battlecruisers were not armed to the same scale as dreadnoughts. Eight 12" guns certainly don't "count" as equal to a ship with eight 13.5" guns, let alone eight 15" guns.
My suggestion is that the British lose out 2 to 1 for German ships sunk until it gets into the low teens which brings to German favor.
No, because the British enjoy 2:1 superiority in the relevant ship classes. 2:1 casualty ratios change nothing, even if they were possible, which they aren't. A few fluke hits might allow such a ratio
among a few ships ("we killed 2 of the 50 ships you brought and you killed 1 of the 50 ships you brought.")
But the only way to get 2:1 advantage in a long-term pounding match is to have a secret weapon or tactic. The Germans had no such secret weapon. And no real plans to achieve an ambush that might have sunk 5-10 British capital ships without letting them shoot back.
If you really wanted to speculate on this, stop wanking about the Hochseeflotte's capital ships and INDESTRUCTABATTLECRUISERS. Start thinking about what happens if the Germans manage a brilliantly successful torpedo attack on the British battleline- which might be difficult but is at least remotely conceivable and not totally fucking nuts.
Dominarch's Hope wrote:You saying that German ships dont have the range? And why couldnt they just sail through the channel?
Because they would get used for target practice by every coast defense gun from Dover to Penzance, shot full of torpedoes by every little boat the Royal Navy AND the French have, and probably blown up by mines while they're at it.
Do you just... not know how naval warfare works? O_o
Note: I only suggested the classic non-sub blockade as a response to the absurd suggestion of a complete British disaster and loss for no German casualties. Which would mean that the Germans could rotate ships in and out to seek out British surface anti uboat vessels or seek out the French fleet for a showdown. Which would mean that the Austians get to come into play.
The British didn't actively hunt U-boats in World War One, certainly not in the beginning. The resources weren't available and the anti-submarine warfare technology wasn't up to it.