Britain and France defeating Japan w/o America

[Dominarch's Hope]

Its further than Pearl? Really?! Holy shit. That sounds like....total bullshit.

Its small potattoes in terms of getting there period. Thats it. Nothing else mentioned about taking it.

[PainRack]

Its further than Pearl? Really?! Holy shit. That sounds like....total bullshit.

Its small potattoes in terms of getting there period. Thats it. Nothing else mentioned about taking it.

So............. What's your point then????

I honestly have no idea how a British Blockade strategy has anything to do with Pearl Harbor. Or are you referring to Singapore distance to Japan Home Islands, and how this will make a blockade strategy difficult??

Your post also doesn't make much sense, because the OP was replying to an earlier contention that Britain/France could had beaten Japan alone if it wasn't for Germany.

The scenario is quite ahistorical, since we do know that the whole reason for the Southern strategy was because Japan saw a golden oppurtinity to seize South East Asia due to German defeat of France. If they still have attempted to throw a hissy fit, say, the US embargo of oil and steel forced them to launch a southern strategy aimed at cutting off Chinese supplies as well as secure existing oil infrastructure in Indonesia and etc, the British and French could had sent sufficient forces to defeat the IJN based on numbers and build.

You argued that the Allies might "send in units too early", but that's not something we can discuss in a historical context. As pointed out, British offensive strategy was practically non existent and more pie in the air schemes promoted by junior officers. There's also probably an element of Empire building going on but you would really have to ask a military historian what are said plans, the only ones I know of were comments made by RAF officers with regards to force structure in the Far East.

[Dominarch's Hope]

The main issue in a purely military sense is that Carriers and their air wings are the most relevant. Without carrier protection, British Ships become so many floating targets.

[Zinegata]

Pain Rack->

Dominarch is essentially claiming that the IJN can wipe out the British fleet along with Singapore in one fell swoop; because they succeeded in raiding Pearl Harbor.

Which is stupid for a very wide variety of reasons; Pearl was a hugely risky operation that could have easily become a disaster, and unlike Pearl Harbor attacking Singapore forces the Japanese fleet into the relatively confined South China Sea instead of being able to hide in the vast expanses of the Pacific (in other words, no sneak attack for Japan).

Secondly, even if Singapore gets bombed, it's hard to actually destroy the port without ground invasion, and destroying the port is the actual important bit because the bulk of the British fleet is based not in Singapore but in England.

So assuming extreme luck (more luck than the Pearl Harbor Op) the Japanese will at best sink a couple of British capital ships, damage but not destroy Singapore, before the British send reinforcements from Europe to Singapore and clobber the IJN to death.

[Zinegata]

Edit: In other words, Dominarch created a strawman argument. "Singapore is closer to the Home Islands than Pearl Harbor hence it is easier to sneak-attack".

Which is why he keeps repeating the "distance" angle, when that bit is largely irrelevant compared to other much more important factors like geography and where the British fleet was actually based.

[Thanas]

The main issue in a purely military sense is that Carriers and their air wings are the most relevant. Without carrier protection, British Ships become so many floating targets.

Did you miss the part about British CV production in this thread?

[Dominarch's Hope]

Can British air wings on their Carriers defeat the Japanese ones? What did they have available?

[xt828]

When?

[PainRack]

The main issue in a purely military sense is that Carriers and their air wings are the most relevant. Without carrier protection, British Ships become so many floating targets.

And as pointed out by Skimmer earlier in the thread, the Japanese carriers do not have a decisive advantage here. It also heavily depends on the year, 1941 for example still has the IJN enjoying superior aircraft designs. However, the combined French and British navies would surge ahead in terms of carriers numbers and with the Sea Hurricane/etc coming online, Japanese aerial supremacy would had been just as temporary as facing against the Americans(barring constant tactical victories).


Furthermore, Japanese aerial aviation had certain critical flaws that was never fully corrected, although unlike in the USN scenario, it 'might' have the oppurtinity to correct some of them. Lack of radar and ineffective radios made coordinating flights of aircraft difficult, compounded by the fact that Zeroes were stripped of radios due to their ineffective range/dead weight. This was compounded by Japanese tactical organisation, with lack of an overall air boss commander and on the bigger scale, the Japanese carrier organisation. Both the RN and IJN went into the war organised around pre war orthodoxy, with carriers attached to fleets as raiders/to provide screening. Carrier strikes were supposed to be highly vulnerable and rapidly attrited away. The US, propelled by the losses at Pearl was able to organise their carriers into task forces that in effect could operate as permanent mobile airbases. Japanese carriers was always more raiders than mobile airbases, and as USN tactics evolved, they would attach sufficient carriers so that carrier task forces could defend themselves and strike against the enemy, going on long operations beyond the ken of the IJN thanks to the USN long logistic sea train.

The RN and MN didn't develop capabilities along the same scale as the USN, but thanks to radar and radios, the Sea Hurricane, they could potentially put up a much tougher defensive fight. And in any realistic scenario, the RN would not charge blindly into the South China seas to seek a decisive fleet battle. And if the IJN assaults Singapore/Saigon, its going to go into a world of hurt. Unlike the original timeline, Japan is going to have to stage from Imperial Japan and Formosa. A much longer distance. This would mean armies and transports would take much longer to reach their operating zones, with what this implies for the element of surprise. Similarly, they would be operating at a much longer logistic line than in real life, although one might argue this would be alleviated by the fact that they won't need to assault Phillipines.


I think it should be safe to assume that any original war strategy design in the 1920s would had been discarded by 1940 due to the geopolitical situation changing, just as they were dropped aside in real life.

[Dominarch's Hope]

It wont be the same curbstomp as Japan vs America, but ok.

Conceded that Britain and France could do it.

[Sea Skimmer]

All Zeros were supposed to have radios, the homing/direction finding capability was seen as very important for such a long range single seat aircraft. Most didn't simply because Japan was too poor and inefficient to produce them. Late war attempts to use school children to make radios did not work well. One of those endless signs of how Imperial Japan was only a facade of a world power.

Anyway, zero allied carriers would still turn into Japan trounced by land based aircraft as I think I said before. Its very doubtful that Malay would fall, so even if Japan took the eastern half of the Dutch East indies, with what limited oil that brings, they'd be under endless bombardment. Japan got off easy on this in WW2 because neither the British or Americans ever had the planes to spare to mount a really serious offensive operation out of Australia. Europe first at work.

Pretty interesting to think what would happen if you simply took the fighters and bombers the RAF had shot down in the Battle of Britain and deployed them in the historical December 1941 situation. Japan would be completely screwed even with air bases in Indochina.

[PainRack]

All Zeros were supposed to have radios, the homing/direction finding capability was seen as very important for such a long range single seat aircraft. Most didn't simply because Japan was too poor and inefficient to produce them. Late war attempts to use school children to make radios did not work well. One of those endless signs of how Imperial Japan was only a facade of a world power.

Is there a citation for this? I was under the impression that most Zeros stripped their radios because of its ineffectiveness and weight, as claimed by Sakai in his book......

Pretty interesting to think what would happen if you simply took the fighters and bombers the RAF had shot down in the Battle of Britain and deployed them in the historical December 1941 situation. Japan would be completely screwed even with air bases in Indochina.

I'm..... not too sure about that. While more airplanes could certainly have resolved the utter lack of reconnaissance plaguing the British forces(I forgot the exact statistics, but there was only a single flight of airplanes patrolling the entire State of Johore prior to the invasion of Singapore. I think it was two sortie a day by two aircraft......... Hardly enough for surveillance, much less counter battery work.), this would still not have changed the disastrous placement of British airbases and defences.... Assuming that Japan could still launch a surprise assault, we could still assume that Kota Bahru will be lost and the Japanese gets a decisive foothold. The lack of British AT firepower would still mean the Jap tankettes could break through British defences at Perak.

[Simon_Jester]

All Zeros were supposed to have radios, the homing/direction finding capability was seen as very important for such a long range single seat aircraft. Most didn't simply because Japan was too poor and inefficient to produce them. Late war attempts to use school children to make radios did not work well. One of those endless signs of how Imperial Japan was only a facade of a world power.

Is there a citation for this? I was under the impression that most Zeros stripped their radios because of its ineffectiveness and weight, as claimed by Sakai in his book......

Could be both.

I could easily imagine that Japan produced a 'radio' for use in Zeroes that was unreliable and crappy and heavy, and broke down enough of the time that on half your missions you'd have to use hand signals anyway. At which point pilots who had theoretically received a radio might just remove the damn thing from the plane.

So Japan would be "too poor and inefficient" to produce a radio good enough that Japanese pilots would consider it a useful addition to their plane.

[Dominarch's Hope]

Edit: In other words, Dominarch created a strawman argument. "Singapore is closer to the Home Islands than Pearl Harbor hence it is easier to sneak-attack".

Which is why he keeps repeating the "distance" angle, when that bit is largely irrelevant compared to other much more important factors like geography and where the British fleet was actually based.

No, it was stated that the Japanese couldnt get to Singapore. I asserted that Japan could in fact reach it and attack it if they wished.


Which they most definately can unless forcibly stopped. Whether they succeed or not is the question.


So, can the British and French win faster than the USN did? Personally, I doubt it.

[Sea Skimmer]

Is there a citation for this? I was under the impression that most Zeros stripped their radios because of its ineffectiveness and weight, as claimed by Sakai in his book......

I do not feel like researching this at the moment, but as I recall Sakai was speaking of a specific point in his early war experience at Lae. This was also when Japan was barely building any combat planes at all. Later on the radio shortage plagued all types of aircraft and ground operations. The radios did suck, no doubt about that, because they only had a single channel.

I'm..... not too sure about that.

You aren't sure that well over 1,000 modern British fighters and bombers could stop the Japanese? The Japanese wouldn't have ever dared try to attack such a concentration of air power. Anything they sent would be wiped out and none of those tankettes are ever even going to be unloaded, nor are they bloody likely to last long on land being bombed by a few hundred planes. Even sending every Zero produced to that date in behind the attack would still leave the Japanese outnumbered in modern fighters. They'd have to at best, invade via Thailand, and using a much larger force, which they would have since the Philippines are being spared as a hopeless dagger in the heart of the Empire.

[PainRack]

You aren't sure that well over 1,000 modern British fighters and bombers could stop the Japanese? The Japanese wouldn't have ever dared try to attack such a concentration of air power. Anything they sent would be wiped out and none of those tankettes are ever even going to be unloaded, nor are they bloody likely to last long on land being bombed by a few hundred planes. Even sending every Zero produced to that date in behind the attack would still leave the Japanese outnumbered in modern fighters. They'd have to at best, invade via Thailand, and using a much larger force, which they would have since the Philippines are being spared as a hopeless dagger in the heart of the Empire.

Because planes won't matter without the unit formations/staffwork behind it, along with bases, infrastructure and etc, which was historically hopeless here due to the fact that it wasn't an important theatre of war. Hell, the fucking radios don't work, and the brillance of British staffwork meant Perceival had to travel an hour to reach Sembawang and naval headquarters(also because telephone exchange was not up to the task).

I did assume however that Britain would still be working under the same political constraints which might not hold true here, so,concede.

[Dominarch's Hope]

Is there a citation for this? I was under the impression that most Zeros stripped their radios because of its ineffectiveness and weight, as claimed by Sakai in his book......

I do not feel like researching this at the moment, but as I recall Sakai was speaking of a specific point in his early war experience at Lae. This was also when Japan was barely building any combat planes at all. Later on the radio shortage plagued all types of aircraft and ground operations. The radios did suck, no doubt about that, because they only had a single channel.

I'm..... not too sure about that.

You aren't sure that well over 1,000 modern British fighters and bombers could stop the Japanese? The Japanese wouldn't have ever dared try to attack such a concentration of air power. Anything they sent would be wiped out and none of those tankettes are ever even going to be unloaded, nor are they bloody likely to last long on land being bombed by a few hundred planes. Even sending every Zero produced to that date in behind the attack would still leave the Japanese outnumbered in modern fighters. They'd have to at best, invade via Thailand, and using a much larger force, which they would have since the Philippines are being spared as a hopeless dagger in the heart of the Empire.

Really? They attacked the United States of America.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

IN THEATRE, drooltard. US aircraft in California meant crap against hitting Hawai'i. That's a thousand aircraft IN THEATRE.

The entire IJNAS in 1941 was ~3,000 aircraft; the IJAAF was ~1,700.

[Dominarch's Hope]

Theyll still try it. Possibly beleiving they can catch most on the runway or that simlly the Bushido spirit will carry them through.


They might not succeed. But theyll still do it.

[Simon_Jester]

Citation needed.

No, seriously. The Japanese planners were overconfident, but they weren't frothing madmen. Their attack on Pearl Harbor was carefully timed and judged. It was based on a lot of information they'd built up over many years about the state of the defenses, the alertness of the defenders, and the resources the US fleet had to draw on.

It was NOT launched because the IJN thought "we'll win because BANZAI!" or anything that cartoonish and dumb.

In general, if you look at Japan's plans for the opening months of the Pacific War, they did have a realistic picture of what their forces could and could not do. Their overconfidence popped up at the strategic level- they assumed that they could give most of the world's industrial powers a black eye and not get flattened by the response.

Overconfidence and 'victory disease' didn't get really absurd and start creeping into their operational battleplans until mid-1942. At Midway the Japanese made their first major mistake of the form "if we attack here the enemy will surely do this, and we can stake our whole plan on them doing exactly that!"

[Sea Skimmer]

Victory disease appears the very moment that Japan exceeded its prewar plans by landing at Lae and Salamaua in New Guinea. Japanese losses would skyrocket from that point on, and indeed have been immensely worse had US bombing accuracy not been so poor in the counterstroke. Like whole invasion force wiped out. In any event, Japan never faced anything like a thousand modern planes in one place in the war until around 1943 when the allied bombing offensive against Rabaul got rolling. The result was the rapid extinction of Japanese air power in the south west pacific. Oahu only had about three hundred fifty US aircraft on it, relatively few of which were fighters really comparable to a Hurricane or Spitefire. Meanwhile US forces in the Phillippines were flying P-35s as a recent upgrade over the P-26, and the Phillippines air force its self still had the P-26!

[Dominarch's Hope]

They still did it. Half the Japanese, Yamamoto especially, knew damn well how outclassed they were against the US.

They still did it.

And trying to catch most of the planes on the runway is a legitimate tactic and might even work. If they can reach the runways. So a surprise attack that catches the British with their pants down can be sold as a guarantor of victory.

Whether or not the Japanese would try anything to begin with is the question. And if the US is still trading with them, then I really doubt it.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

My greatest regret is that this thread, which had been interesting and informative, was close enough to the top of the board for DH to notice and pollute with his droppings.

They were trying to fight a cabinet war, DH, which you don't know the meaning of, but they did it in a manner that incited total war. Japan couldn't have won against Russia in 1904 in a total war, either, but they didn't have to because of how they played the cards, and that was what led them to their doom. You, of course, will continue to not understand this and ooze uselessness all over this board at an insane rate.

[PainRack]

Errr.... DH, I did assume that the Japanese would be able to overrun Kota Bahru even if the Brits did deploy a thousand fighters/bombers, but I didn't assume that the Japanese WOULD.

You do know that the whole reason why the Japanese invaded the area was because they perceived a fleeting vulnerability/oppurtinity, a way to sidestep and shortcircuit the war in China(and for the IJN to give their war strategy a go)

[Dominarch's Hope]

Yeah, the colonial powers were busy getting stomped on by the Nazis or otherwise had the majority of their fleets tied up in resisting them.

TDOZ, that would still require them to fight the US for quite a while, Russia didnt just kill over, it took the sinking of most if not all of the Russian Navy for Czartard to consider giving in.

So even with that precident, they 'knew' they had to kill the entire USN. A feat which they also knew was almost totally impossible.

Its still phenomenally stupid. And they knew it AND STILL FUCKING DID IT.

Painrack.

Are you saying that they could take on the air power that would be there? Its questionable.

But frankly, the entire OP is questionable. But its fairly rude to go about the debate in that way....

So, since the OP, for the sake of discussion, demands that the Japanese initiate the war, what are the most likley locations for the initial attacks and battles?