North Korea conducts third nuke test

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/ ... 4820130212

North Korea conducts third nuclear test, angering U.S., Japan

(Reuters) - North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of U.N. resolutions, angering the United States and Japan and prompting its only major ally, China, to call for calm.

The North said the test had "greater explosive force" than the 2006 and 2009 tests that were widely seen as small-scale. Its KCNA news agency said it had used a "miniaturized" and lighter nuclear device, indicating that it had again used plutonium which is more suitable for use as a missile warhead.


North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the third of his line to rule the country, has presided over two long-range rocket launches and a nuclear test during his first a year in power, pursuing policies that have propelled his impoverished and malnourished country closer to becoming a nuclear weapons power.

U.S. President Barack Obama termed the test a "highly provocative act" that hurt regional stability.

"The danger posed by North Korea's threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community. The United States will also continue to take steps necessary to defend ourselves and our allies," Obama said in a statement.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the test was a "grave threat" that could not be tolerated. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the test was a "clear and grave violation" of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

China, which has shown signs of increasing exasperation with its neighbor, repeated calls for the "denuclearization" of the Korean peninsula and urged its client state and others to react calmly, while pressing Pyongyang not to ramp up tension further, something the North had threatened in the run-up to the test.

"We strongly urge North Korea to abide by its non-nuclear commitment and not to take any further actions that would worsen the situation", it said in a statement.

South Korea, still technically at war with the North after the 1950-53 civil war ended in a mere truce, said the size of the seismic activity indicated a nuclear explosion slightly larger than the North's two previous tests at 6-7 kilotons, although that is still relatively small. The Hiroshima bomb was around 20 kilotons.

The U.S. Geological Survey said that a seismic event measuring 5.1 magnitude had occurred on Tuesday, with North Korea later confirming the nuclear test.

"It was confirmed that the nuclear test that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturized and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment," KCNA said.

The test prompted the U.N. Security Council to call for an emergency meeting later on Tuesday. Despite the tame official response, it likely to be a major embarrassment for Beijing, the North's sole major economic and diplomatic ally.

"The test is hugely insulting to China, which now can be expected to follow through with threats to impose sanctions," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

North Korea trumpeted the announcement on its state television channel to patriotic music against the backdrop of an image of its national flag.

It linked the test to its technical prowess in launching a long-range rocket in December, a move that triggered the U.N. sanctions, backed by China, that Pyongyang said prompted it to carry out Tuesday's nuclear test.

The North's ultimate aim, Washington believes, is to design an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit the United States. North Korea says the program is aimed merely at putting satellites in space.

North Korea used plutonium in previous nuclear tests and prior to Tuesday there had been speculation it would use highly enriched uranium so as to conserve its plutonium stocks as testing eats into its limited supply of the material that could be used to construct a nuclear bomb.

"VICIOUS CYCLE"

Despite its three nuclear tests and long-range rocket tests, North Korea is not believed to be close to manufacturing a nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States.

Japan immediately called for more sanctions against North Korea and South Korea's defense ministry said additional nuclear tests and rocket launches by the North should not be ruled out.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Pyongyang had informed China and the United States of its plans to test on Monday, although this could not be confirmed.

When new leader Kim, now aged 30, took power after his father's death in December 2011, there were hopes the he would bring reforms and end Kim Jong-il's "military first" policies.

Instead of which, the North, whose economy is smaller than it was 20 years ago and where a third of children are believed to be malnourished, appears to be trapped in a cycle of sanctions followed by further provocations.

"The more North Korea shoots missiles, launches satellites or conducts nuclear tests, the more the U.N. Security Council will impose new and more severe sanctions," said Shen Dingli, a professor and regional security expert at Shanghai's Fudan University.

"It is an endless, vicious cycle."

But options for the international community appear to be in short supply, as North Korea is already one of the most heavily sanctioned states on earth.

Tuesday's action appeared to have been timed for the run-up to February 16 anniversary celebrations of Kim Jong-il's birthday, as well as to achieved maximum international attention.

Significantly, the test comes at a time of political transition in China, Japan and South Korea, and as Obama begins his second term. He will likely have to tweak his State of the Union address due to be given on Tuesday.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is bedding down a new government and South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, prepares to take office on February 25.

China too is in the midst of a once-in-a-decade leadership transition to Xi Jinping, who takes office in March. Both Abe and Xi are staunch nationalists.

The longer-term game plan from Pyongyang may be to restart talks aimed at winning food and financial aid.

Its puny economy and small diplomatic reach mean the North struggles to win attention on the global stage - other than through nuclear tests and attacks on South Korea, last made in 2010.

"Now the next step for North Korea will be to offer talks... - any form to start up discussion again to bring things to their advantage," said Jeung Young-tae, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

(Additional reporting by Jack Kim, Christine Kim and Jumin Park in SEOUL; Linda Sieg in TOKYO; Louis Charbonneau at the UNITED NATIONS; Fredrik Dahl in VIENNA; Michael Martina in BEIJING; Editing by Nick Macfie)

[K. A. Pital]

DPRK basically secures itself against a hypothetical invasion. Their missiles cannot reach the US, but nobody would be willing to risk nuclear attacks against troops in South Korean territory, which DPRK would pull off with ease. Compact low-yield warheads can be used in short-range missiles and artillery.

[FaxModem1]

So, what's the point in supporting them with foodstuffs and or other financial supplies, aside from obvious humanitarian reasons, even though those foodstuffs won't reach the main population.

[weemadando]

Because the hope of stability via such donations is better than the risk of war?

[FaxModem1]

Long term basis, will this affect the North Korean populace or government into changing or wanting to change, or will it just enjoy the gravy train of foreign aid in exchange for not working on nuclear weapons? If so, how?

[K. A. Pital]

1. Make aid unconditional. Also make it bigger - the more you give, the more will end up with the civilian population. Also provide some tech aid.
2. Start some joint projects with them which would give them money and advanced production tech like South Korea already does.

This gives you a better chance at seeing DPRK implement PRC and Vietnam-style reforms in the near future than anything else. Endlessly screaming at them to stop nuclear research "or else" would only make them wish they have more nukes, and the sooner the better.

Also just deal with the fact they have nukes now and may also blow them up at their leisure.

[Irbis]

Out of curiosity, 5.1 magnitude test translates to what bomb yield?

[Crazedwraith]

Out of curiosity, 5.1 magnitude test translates to what bomb yield?

South Korea, still technically at war with the North after the 1950-53 civil war ended in a mere truce, said the size of the seismic activity indicated a nuclear explosion slightly larger than the North's two previous tests at 6-7 kilotons, although that is still relatively small. The Hiroshima bomb was around 20 kilotons.

I assume that it means the just tested bomb is 6 or 7 kilotons rather than the previous tests being that yield.

[TimothyC]

I assume that it means the just tested bomb is 6 or 7 kilotons rather than the previous tests being that yield.

Los Alamos had the last one at about a 5.7kt event, and that gave a 4.7 on the Richter scale. USGS is giving this a 5.1 on the Richter scale, and from that I'd ballpark this one between 10 and 20kt. (Richter being a logarithmic scale).

[Guardsman Bass]

1. Make aid unconditional. Also make it bigger - the more you give, the more will end up with the civilian population. Also provide some tech aid.
2. Start some joint projects with them which would give them money and advanced production tech like South Korea already does.

That's basically what South Korea did for years, starting in 2000 with the Sunshine Policy. The DPRK didn't change anything, and why would they? That aid just gave them desperately need hard currency and food to avoid another '90s style mass famine.

Meanwhile, the existing set-up does seem to be forcing some internal change, even if it's just a bunch of local traders and the black market.

Long term basis, will this affect the North Korean populace or government into changing or wanting to change, or will it just enjoy the gravy train of foreign aid in exchange for not working on nuclear weapons? If so, how?

We'll probably just see the same cycle of events that has happened since the early 1990s:

1. North Korea threatens to detonate a bomb and build more, and also drops hints that they may be willing to negotiate to not do that in exchange for food aid;

2. South Korea/The US/Etc give food aid in preparation for negotiations;

3. The DPRK begins procrastinating and delaying on the negotiations process, occasionally making a token gesture but nothing meaningful. Negotiations eventually fall apart.

4. North Korea runs through the food aid, ends up back in the same dysfunctional mess it only had a temporary reprieve from.

And then the cycle begins again.

[K. A. Pital]

That aid just gave them desperately need hard currency and food to avoid another '90s style mass famine.

Isn't preventing a giant famine good? And the change occured under the Sunshine Policy since 2000. So it seems your post is a bit contradicting yourself. I mean, under the youngest of the Kims DPRK is getting their own mobile service, sort of, internet etc. - slowly and painfully, but they are moving. They now consult China and RK people on how to set up factories. That's a hell lot of progress since 1970s or whenever "the Graet Leader" decided to go batshit autarky because Koreans are the smartest and superbest people on Earth and can do everything alone.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Reports are now that it may be two devices in the 6 - 15kT range. There are concerns these are miniaturized Pakistani designed gun-type devices in the 6 - 15kT yield range, which if similar in mass to the smallest prior gun type device (Atomic Annie's warheads), would be about 800 - 900lbs. This gives them the range on their just tested satellite launcher to hit Hawai'i, Guam, Saipan, Alaska, and possibly have a solid capability against San Francisco and mediocre capability against LA with a single warhead per missile. It will be interesting to see if they start building ICBM silos now.

[That NOS Guy]

Reports are now that it may be two devices in the 6 - 15kT range. There are concerns these are miniaturized Pakistani designed gun-type devices in the 6 - 15kT yield range, which if similar in mass to the smallest prior gun type device (Atomic Annie's warheads), would be about 800 - 900lbs. This gives them the range on their just tested satellite launcher to hit Hawai'i, Guam, Saipan, Alaska, and possibly have a solid capability against San Francisco and mediocre capability against LA with a single warhead per missile. It will be interesting to see if they start building ICBM silos now.

Are their rockets solid or liquid fueled?

[Guardsman Bass]

That aid just gave them desperately need hard currency and food to avoid another '90s style mass famine.

Isn't preventing a giant famine good? And the change occured under the Sunshine Policy since 2000. So it seems your post is a bit contradicting yourself. I mean, under the youngest of the Kims DPRK is getting their own mobile service, sort of, internet etc. - slowly and painfully, but they are moving. They now consult China and RK people on how to set up factories. That's a hell lot of progress since 1970s or whenever "the Graet Leader" decided to go batshit autarky because Koreans are the smartest and superbest people on Earth and can do everything alone.

Oh, I never said it was bad - it's good on humanitarian grounds to prevent millions of people to starve to death. But unconditional aid isn't going to get any sort of regime change out of the DPRK, or at least it didn't when the South Koreans tried that in the 2000s. And the "open to factories" thing comes and goes - they shut down that area they allowed for South Korean manufacturers, then re-opened it again.

[Stark]

I think your expectations are a bit suspect.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Reports are now that it may be two devices in the 6 - 15kT range. There are concerns these are miniaturized Pakistani designed gun-type devices in the 6 - 15kT yield range, which if similar in mass to the smallest prior gun type device (Atomic Annie's warheads), would be about 800 - 900lbs. This gives them the range on their just tested satellite launcher to hit Hawai'i, Guam, Saipan, Alaska, and possibly have a solid capability against San Francisco and mediocre capability against LA with a single warhead per missile. It will be interesting to see if they start building ICBM silos now.

Are their rockets solid or liquid fueled?

The first two stages are likely liquid with the third solid, but vertical storage with integrated fueling facilities like in the Titan II silos would make it very hard to detect when the rockets were fueled and ready to fire.

[That NOS Guy]

The first two stages are likely liquid with the third solid, but vertical storage with integrated fueling facilities like in the Titan II silos would make it very hard to detect when the rockets were fueled and ready to fire.

That could pose a problem, although I suspect their construction would be readily obvious. I wonder if stationing a drone at 50,000 feet (An enhanced global hawk?) with a weapon like the NCADE off the cost may be effective in a boost phase defense however to help mitigate any IRBM/ICBM threat.

Of course, my worry would be that while the DPRK could wipe out Seoul in a matter of hours before now with suitable artillery it can be done in seconds. Really, that's always been their strategic trump and it's gotten a lot stronger now.

[K. A. Pital]

That aid just gave them desperately need hard currency and food to avoid another '90s style mass famine.

Isn't preventing a giant famine good? And the change occured under the Sunshine Policy since 2000. So it seems your post is a bit contradicting yourself. I mean, under the youngest of the Kims DPRK is getting their own mobile service, sort of, internet etc. - slowly and painfully, but they are moving. They now consult China and RK people on how to set up factories. That's a hell lot of progress since 1970s or whenever "the Graet Leader" decided to go batshit autarky because Koreans are the smartest and superbest people on Earth and can do everything alone.

Oh, I never said it was bad - it's good on humanitarian grounds to prevent millions of people to starve to death. But unconditional aid isn't going to get any sort of regime change out of the DPRK, or at least it didn't when the South Koreans tried that in the 2000s. And the "open to factories" thing comes and goes - they shut down that area they allowed for South Korean manufacturers, then re-opened it again.

Thing is, trying to tie aid to "regime change" is essentially saying "we want to overthrow your government eventually" - a clear threat to the DPRK partocrats. When the US traded with China it did not say "we want to change your government".

[Sky Captain]

Reports are now that it may be two devices in the 6 - 15kT range. There are concerns these are miniaturized Pakistani designed gun-type devices in the 6 - 15kT yield range, which if similar in mass to the smallest prior gun type device (Atomic Annie's warheads), would be about 800 - 900lbs. This gives them the range on their just tested satellite launcher to hit Hawai'i, Guam, Saipan, Alaska, and possibly have a solid capability against San Francisco and mediocre capability against LA with a single warhead per missile. It will be interesting to see if they start building ICBM silos now.

Are their ICBMs actualy a credible threat against US? North Korea is too poor to afford large number of missiles to saturate defense systems. Few missiles they could launch together should be no real problem for US missile defense systems to intercept.
Besides North Korea leadreship should know perfectly well if they launch a nuclear attack against US or US ally there will be no more North Korea left. Even crazy dictators want a country to rule, they dont want to be in charge of an ash fields.

[spaceviking]

Still having ICBM's would be a pretty big international prestige boost.

[Justforfun000]

I wondered something the other day when China got very pissed at them for this latest test..I'm aware that China approves the buffer zone North Korea gives them from the very American partnership that's in full force in South Korea, but what would happen if the two of them decided to team up and say screw this and oust the moron from power. Would the US be amenable to China taking over the territory? When you think about it, it would solve a lot of issues. The US and China are on far better terms and China already has the same capabilities of weapons and many more, but they aren't batshit like the dear leader.

South Korea might have some misgivings because it was "their country" before...but hell a nation continually making threats and setting off nuclear bombs is asking for it. Just as a speculative thing, could this ever be a likely scenario? More importantly...COULD China with US help roll in and take over the country without a serious fight and heavy losses?

[Tanasinn]

Why would China want to assume responsibility for millions of starving, uneducated, ultra-nationalist peasants? To say nothing of the massive, murderous bureaucracy they'd have to grapple with even if they got rid of fat boy.

[Justforfun000]

Well for one thing they have an impressive list of natural resources:

http://www.themontrealreview.com/2009/R ... p-Card.php

[chitoryu12]

I don't see China really wanting to deal with all of the refugees of the war. At the same time, I doubt that they'd try to get on the NK side of things if a war were to occur: if South and North ended up in a fight, the US and probably the rest of NATO would join in to provide support. A lot of countries wouldn't mind seeing the DPRK shut its trap or disappear from their radar completely, and an aggressive act on the part of the North would basically be in the "asking for it" realm. Even Iran is telling them "Dude, chill the fuck out." That's like Charlie Sheen calling you a crazy addict. If they launched a nuke, especially, it would be carte blanche for immediate retaliation. They'd get turned into a smear on Google Earth.

If China were to go against the rest of the world in getting North Korea to stop flinging nukes at people, they would not be in a good position. Not a lot of countries want to lose their amicable trade relationships with them, but China doesn't want to lose them either. It would be in their best interests to at least set up heavy border security to try and stem the tide of refugees and at least quietly let NATO do what they're doing. It's not entirely pleasant for them to have to stomach losing their buffer zone from foreign influence, but it's better than risking losing their trade with other nations. If they were to go so far as to provide assistance to North Korea or even attack South Korean and NATO soldiers, they'd be ensuring a massive war that will provide them no benefit.

[Dr. Trainwreck]

That's the point. All the tinfoilers don't understand how trade works; every toaster the west needs from China is a dollar that China needs from the west. Nobody has anybody by the balls, because what the hell are you going to do with all that industrial capacity if you lose the means to turn it into profit? The Chinese aren't stupid, they are keeping the Koreans on a leash that is (as) tight (as possible), and in event of a war they'd probably look for any excuse to dump them and keep trading with the west since, you know, that's what concerns them.