WTF Are the North Koreans Smoking Now?

[TimothyC]

Your gleeful predictions of mass deaths have been pretty unreliable so far. Luckily nobody goes to a hobbit for foreign policy.

And you haven't actually been reading my posts have you?
Let us pause for a moment Stark, and go with what I have said in this thread

The good news so far is that the Kaesong Industrial complex is still open.
<Snip article>

And

Kaesong is still open
<Snip article>
No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There is always a boom tomorrow.

Which was a B5 reference.

I'd like for you to show me where I've made 'gleeful predictions of mass deaths'?

[Broomstick]

Stark's saying that western posture-politics have been killing Koreans for years and at the rate they're going Koreans are still going to get killed. But who cares because they're just foreigners right?

You know, when North Korea decides to bomb a ship or shell an island full of civilians I don't lay it at the doorstep of anyone else but North Korea.

Nice of you to ignore the approximately 60,000-100,000 Americans living in South Korea at any one time (that includes both military and civilians), most of whom are in or near Seoul which, as we all know, is likely to bear the brunt of North Korean aggression should shooting/bombing recommence.

Their are also around 700,000 Chinese living there.

And all sorts of other nationalities, of course. But Stark was implying that the US has no interest in protecting those living in South Korea. At the very least the US should have an interest in US citizens living in South Korea, correct?

But hey, let's turn this into a race war, why not? Because there aren't enough hot heads running around posturing I guess.

Just shit on someone who has stated multiple times in this thread they they'd rather not see anyone killed over this, would rather not see any city bombed. It's so much more important to take one statement entirely out of context.

[Broomstick]

This thread is fucking hilarious. In a month when nothing happens will you dumb fucks admit you're kneejerk ignoramuses or will you be hyperventilating over Kim's queefs?

I will be gleefully happy to look like a fool a month from now with the whole pile of bullshit having blown away like a fart because that will mean nobody got killed over this. I would much prefer that to you waking up one morning in the near future and reading that the Norks really did drop the bomb on somebody. There are things so much worse than merely looking foolish.

Maybe I'll just leave this to CaptainHawkeye and Stark to scream at each other, as I think we've reached the point where absolutely nothing useful will come from the rest of this.

[Simon_Jester]

So the question is, is calling North Korea "crazy" supported by their behavior? If the nation's behavior is consistently X-like, then a prediction we make based on "they'll keep acting like X" is probably better than the alternatives.

Yes, modeling nations as people can work. Calling North Korea crazy doesn't, because crazy people don't behave rationally. Just calling someone crazy is dismissing the possibility that there is a logic behind their actions that can be understood.

It depends. I've known a number of mentally ill people; some were more predictable than others. For example, a clinical paranoid is "crazy," and some of the details of his reactions aren't predictable. But the general trend is predictable: he is afraid of being betrayed, attacked, spied upon, and this fear will become stronger and stronger even about his close acquaintances and loved ones.

A depressed person is "crazy," as in irrational. But we can still predict their behavior and understand its internal logic: see what causes depressive fits, try to counter them, do things to make it less likely that someone will hurt themselves while depressed, and so on.

I can easily imagine saying North Korea is "crazy" in that sense- irrational about important issues, but predictable and understandable and negotiable-with all the same.

---

Why in all the nine hells is anyone even discussing demographics? Who cares how many Americans or Chinese are in South Korea? There are over 200 million people in the firing line if we see this thing to it's final stupidity. You don't have to an imperialist, tribalist bastard to not want that many people to die. How do you and Stark not get this?

Because it's more fun to jump up and down cackling about how much America sucks.

Which Koreans are dying? Do you refer to North Korean citizens dying now, or to Koreans of both nations dying in a hypothetical war?

He didn't state "North/South" prior, so obviously he wasn't making a distinction. Moreover, if the FUCKING DAY should ever come that you decide to comprehend what someone is saying in a post, rather than injecting your own fan fiction, I'll dine on my underwear.

Stark's saying that western posture-politics have been killing Koreans for years and at the rate they're going Koreans are still going to get killed. But who cares because they're just foreigners right?

How helpful of you to translate.

Now me, I think Stark's putting a generic slab of rhetoric up as a Rorschach inkblot because he's more interested in trolling people who react to the rhetoric than he is in being accurate or clear. But that's just me.

Their are also around 700,000 Chinese living there. Nice of YOU to ignore them. We're Americans though right? I forgot, we only care about ourselves and whatever minority state our agenda has decided to make a pet out of today.

Stark: "The Koreans do all the dying! Only Koreans have to pay the price!"
Broomstick: "There are, in fact, Americans at risk."
Hawkeye: "HOW DARE YOU ONLY CARE ABOUT AMERICANS! WHAT ABOUT THE CHINESE?"

Well gee, that leaves her kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't there. If she does mention the Americans at risk you squall about how she's only giving a shit about Americans. If she doesn't, someone (if not you) squalls about how she's only giving a shit about Americans and therefore not caring about the region. Even though she explicitly said otherwise.

See, I can get the whole "US sucks" thing, there's enough justification for it in the world and in history. But when it becomes a pretext for wild intellectual dishonesty and constant denunciations of everyone who even mumbles "maybe this isn't the US's fault..." it's just so incredibly fucked up and hateful and ridiculous. I lose all respect for it.

This thread is fucking hilarious. In a month when nothing happens will you dumb fucks admit you're kneejerk ignoramuses or will you be hyperventilating over Kim's queefs?

I for one will be unsurprised (I don't think North Korea wants a war). But I'll still think North Korea is being really stupid, because they're acting in a way that makes nuclear war much more likely than it has to be.

[xt828]

I watched that video Saxtonite posted, and (assuming the analysis of the DPRK presented there is accurate) it suggests that North Korea can't back down, because for their domestic market, North Korea having the military strength to oppose America is a really fundamental aspect of the regime's justification of its rule. If their military backs down in the face of US military strength, then it completely undermines the legitimacy of the regime. I think, that from their point of view, they expected America to either back down, or ignore them, so the North Koreans could present it internally as America being forced to back down by the might of the DPRK's nuclear weapons (Our words are backed by NUCLEAR WEAPONS!) because that's what normally happens. Instead, America has stepped up to the plate, and now North Korea is stuck with the only viable option for their narrative of whats going on being to escalate - so that when America finally backs down, they 'win'. The problem is that North Korea doesn't have many ways of upping the ante without seeming like they're about to invade/bomb/etc. My take on the original point of the exercise is the one echoed earlier in the thread, that Kim Jong Un wanted to demonstate to his people that the North Korean nuclear deterrent had strengthened the military of the regime so much that they could afford to draw down their conventional forces - and release the associated funding for other purposes - and they would still be strong enough militarily to stand up to America.

That's my take on it.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

As I said much earlier, North Korea needs nuclear weapons to be able to reform its economy:

Linka

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea on Monday shifted, at least temporarily, away from weeks of warlike rhetoric, appointing a new premier seen as an economic reformer after a high-level declaration that nuclear bomb building and a stronger economy are the nation's top priorities.

The U.S., meanwhile, announced its latest conspicuous display of firepower, sending F-22 stealth fighter jets to participate in annual U.S.-South Korean war games that Pyongyang calls preparation for invasion. The new South Korean president, who has a policy meant to re-engage Pyongyang with talks and aid, told her top military leaders Monday to set aside political considerations and respond strongly should North Korea attack.

The reemergence of Pak Pong Ju as premier at an annual spring parliamentary session is seen by analysts as a clear signal that leader Kim Jong Un is moving to back up recent statements vowing a focus on strengthened economic development. The U.N. says two-thirds of the country's 24 million people face regular food shortages. Pak was reportedly sacked as prime minister in 2007 after proposing a U.S.-style wage system.

The appointment signals that Pak will play a key role in economic policymaking again.

"Pak Pong Ju is the face of economic reform, such as it exists — reform with North Korean characteristics as they say," said John Delury, a professor and North Korea analyst at Seoul's Yonsei University.

Any economic changes won't be radical, Delury said, and, for the time being, they're mostly aspirational. One possible change could entail a shift of part of the country's massive military spending into the economy as a whole, he said.

Pyongyang has reacted with anger to the U.S.-South Korean military drills and to a new round of U.N. and U.S. sanctions that followed its Feb. 12 underground nuclear test, the country's third. Analysts see a full-scale North Korean attack as unlikely and say the threats are more likely efforts to provoke softer policies toward Pyongyang from a new government in Seoul, to win diplomatic talks with Washington and to solidify the young North Korean leader's military credentials at home.

Despite the rising hostility, there has been a noticeable shift in North Korea's rhetoric to a message that seeks to balance efforts to turn around a moribund economy with nuclear development.

"There was a danger that this was getting to the point ... of a permanent war footing," Delury said. "In the midst of this tension and militant rhetoric and posturing, Kim Jong Un is saying, 'Look, we're still focused on the economy, but we're doing it with our nuclear deterrent intact.'"

On Sunday, Kim and top party officials adopted a declaration calling nuclear weapons "the nation's life" and an important component of its defense, an asset that wouldn't be traded even for "billions of dollars." Pyongyang cites the U.S. military presence in South Korea as a main reason behind its drive to build missiles and atomic weapons. The U.S. has stationed tens of thousands of troops in South Korea since the Korean War ended with a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953.

While analysts call North Korea's threats largely brinkmanship, there is some fear that a localized skirmish might escalate. Seoul has vowed to respond harshly should North Korea provoke its military. Naval skirmishes in disputed Yellow Sea waters off the Korean coast have led to bloody battles several times over the years. Attacks blamed on Pyongyang in 2010 killed 50 South Koreans.

Under late leader Kim Jong Il, North Korea typically held a parliamentary meeting once a year. But Kim Jong Un held an unusual second session last September in a sign that he is trying to run the country differently from his father, who died in late 2011.

Parliament sessions, which usually are held to approve personnel changes and budget and fiscal plans, are scrutinized by the outside world for signs of key changes in policy and leadership.

At a session last April, Kim was made first chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, the body's top post.

On Sunday, Kim presided over a separate plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party, a top decision-making body tasked with organizing and guiding the party's major projects. The meeting set a "new strategic line" calling for building both a stronger economy and nuclear arsenal.

North Korea's "nuclear armed forces represent the nation's life, which can never be abandoned as long as the imperialists and nuclear threats exist on Earth," according to a statement issued by state media after the meeting.

Sunday marked the first time for Kim to preside over the committee meeting. The last plenary session was held in 2010, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry, and before that in 1993.

South Korea now faces a major decision. If President Park Geun-hye and her advisers react as her hardline predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, did, "then they're stuck in the same place, where North Korea limps along, but with regime stability," Delury said. If so, then "the risk of a conflict is like a dark cloud over the next five years of the Park Geun-hye administration. It's not such an appealing path for her."

[The Xeelee]

I think people were putting too much in to this. They would know that any attack they launched would be suicidal.

[TheHammer]

I think people were putting too much in to this. They would know that any attack they launched would be suicidal.

I think that would depend on whether or not the leadership starts to believe any of their own bullshit. Obviously, if they realize that all of their propoganda is just that - propoganda, but one has to wonder if someone young like Kim Jong Un having grown up hearing it his entire life may actually start to believe some of it. In that event, you'd have to hope he has advisors willing to tell him the truth, and that he listens to those advisors.

[The Xeelee]

Maybe but the others in the government would launch a coupe before then. Besides, doesn't he have unrestricted Internet access? That would surely...pacify any actual action he will take. The only way I can see an actual war taking place is if they provoke SK enough to have their troops panic and fire on them, thus getting China involved. Even then, Chinese support is not guaranteed.

[fgalkin]

I think people were putting too much in to this. They would know that any attack they launched would be suicidal.

I think that would depend on whether or not the leadership starts to believe any of their own bullshit. Obviously, if they realize that all of their propoganda is just that - propoganda, but one has to wonder if someone young like Kim Jong Un having grown up hearing it his entire life may actually start to believe some of it. In that event, you'd have to hope he has advisors willing to tell him the truth, and that he listens to those advisors.

Kim Jong Un spent most of his early life in a private school in Switzerland. If anyone among North Korea's leadership knows what the world outside is really like, it's him.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Stark]

Because it's more fun to jump up and down cackling about how much America sucks.

Look, Simmo, I know you like making stuff up when you can't understand or simply don't like things, so I'll use small words this time.

Which Koreans are dying? Do you refer to North Korean citizens dying now, or to Koreans of both nations dying in a hypothetical war?

He didn't state "North/South" prior, so obviously he wasn't making a distinction. Moreover, if the FUCKING DAY should ever come that you decide to comprehend what someone is saying in a post, rather than injecting your own fan fiction, I'll dine on my underwear.

Stark's saying that western posture-politics have been killing Koreans for years and at the rate they're going Koreans are still going to get killed. But who cares because they're just foreigners right?

How helpful of you to translate.

When someone says 'Koreans' why do you need someone to specifically state they're talking about both Koreas? Oh right, because you're A FUCKING MORON. It's even a war that would INVOLVE BOTH KOREAS! Jesus christ.

Now me, I think Stark's putting a generic slab of rhetoric up as a Rorschach inkblot because he's more interested in trolling people who react to the rhetoric than he is in being accurate or clear. But that's just me.

After admitting you can't understand a plain english sentence is not the best point to rhetorically posture about how bad someone is 'trolling'.

Stark: "The Koreans do all the dying! Only Koreans have to pay the price!"
Broomstick: "There are, in fact, Americans at risk."
Hawkeye: "HOW DARE YOU ONLY CARE ABOUT AMERICANS! WHAT ABOUT THE CHINESE?"

I didn't say 'only' Koreans 'pay the price', dumbass. I said that implicit in all the glee over a hot shooting war starting is the deaths of at least millions of Koreans (assuming Iraq-level destruction, non-nuclear). It's not MY fault your fellow countrymen slash posters don't value those people as much as pride/security/military power fantasies. American short sightedness killing Americans is at best a side issue to this devaluation, and at worst actually devalues it more.

Well gee, that leaves her kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't there. If she does mention the Americans at risk you squall about how she's only giving a shit about Americans. If she doesn't, someone (if not you) squalls about how she's only giving a shit about Americans and therefore not caring about the region. Even though she explicitly said otherwise.

This is what Hawks means by 'fanfiction', btw.

But I'll still think North Korea is being really stupid, because they're acting in a way that makes nuclear war much more likely than it has to be.

Maybe - you smart, intelligent, thoughtful individual - should concentrate less on ass-covering and more on changing your nation's policy if you want to reduce the chance of nuclear war.

[K. A. Pital]

Most of the very top-tier DPRK elite has:
1) seen the outside world
2) lives in luxurious apartments in Pyongyang and drives Hummers just as other oligarchs

Do they really believe their own Juche stuff? Obviously not.

[The Xeelee]

All they care about is keeping their power. They know this will not happen if they start a "War".

[Stark]

Most of the very top-tier DPRK elite has:
1) seen the outside world
2) lives in luxurious apartments in Pyongyang and drives Hummers just as other oligarchs

Do they really believe their own Juche stuff? Obviously not.

The fear of people with 'lesser' decision-making clarity than America (the country that is happy just inventing shit when they want to kill someone) has a long-standing place in nuclear paranoia. Its easy to get people to agree someone else shouldn't be allowed to do something you do all the time if they are 'unstable' or 'rogue' or 'ill informed' or have a 'history of violence'.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I see the US is sending in more B2s, and Seoul is saying that the days of the North sinking one of their ships and shelling one of their islands and getting away with it are over. If this doesn't end up in actual war, the North will continue sabre-rattling, so unless they have a major change in attitude they're going to end up in a war sooner or later. Let's just hope this doesn't turn into a proxy war like last time.

[Borgholio]

The S. Korean president announced today that individual S. Korean military units have the right to counterattack immediately without waiting for confirmation from Seoul, if attacked by N. Korean forces. It was also announced that in event of war, Kim Jong-un would be a primary target. In other news, we're sending an Aegis Destroyer to provide missile defense for the area.

Yeah, I see the whole situation de-escalating any day now...

[CaptHawkeye]

Yeah war is so inevitable that a major staple of North Korea's winning strategy here is to proudly announce their plans to go to war. It's been what, 2 days now?

[Metahive]

You know, a few years ago, after the NKs had shelled an SK island (which BTW, constituted an actual act of war, unlike this recent bluster), there was a thread just like this and it too had all these armchair geopoliticians going "ooooh, guess war's right around the corner" and patting themselves on the back for their awesome insight into world politics.

Yeah, good thing nothing has changed.

BTW, do you wanna' know how concerned my relatives over in SK are over this? They are so concerned that they don't give a shit.

[mr friendly guy]

America has just upped the ante in provocation.

linky

And I thought they couldn't do any worse.
Spoiler

Because God works through Kim Jong Un mysterious ways. No its not an Onion article, and yes its a little late for April's fool, but light hearted banter never hurt anyone.

[Col. Crackpot]

You know, a few years ago, after the NKs had shelled an SK island (which BTW, constituted an actual act of war, unlike this recent bluster), there was a thread just like this and it too had all these armchair geopoliticians going "ooooh, guess war's right around the corner" and patting themselves on the back for their awesome insight into world politics.

Yeah, good thing nothing has changed.

BTW, do you wanna' know how concerned my relatives over in SK are over this? They are so concerned that they don't give a shit.

This. Right here.

Fatboy Kim will wave his atomic dick. The South Koreans wave their millions of dicks. B.O. waves his much larger thermonuclear dick. Everyone stares at each other until the US writes a check on the sly and tells Fatboy Kim to go play in traffic. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

[Flagg]

You know, a few years ago, after the NKs had shelled an SK island (which BTW, constituted an actual act of war, unlike this recent bluster), there was a thread just like this and it too had all these armchair geopoliticians going "ooooh, guess war's right around the corner" and patting themselves on the back for their awesome insight into world politics.

Yeah, good thing nothing has changed.

BTW, do you wanna' know how concerned my relatives over in SK are over this? They are so concerned that they don't give a shit.

Bbbut FEAR! We must continue to FEAR. We don't want another Lohan glitterbomb striking our shores!

[Simon_Jester]

There are countries that would have gone to war over the shelling of the island. I was happy to learn that South Korea wasn't one of them, although I seem to recall worrying that North Korea might take that as a license to do something bigger and nastier next time, and kill more people.

Hopefully, North Korea will restrict itself to posturing and shouting, and so will the US,* in which case there will almost certainly be NO war and Crackpot will be right and it's all moronic dickwaving. Unless there's some kind of accident. The big danger I keep talking about is that during all this posturing and shouting, somebody's troops will misinterpret what they're seeing, and think it's preparations for a surprise attack.

Some North Korean colonel who believes what he hears on the news will see a civilian airliner and decide it's a bomber and shoot a missile at it- tragedy.

Or some South Korean missile detection system will interpret the sun reflecting off some clouds as a North Korean missile launch and order the South Korean air force into the air ("use it or lose it!"), which the North Koreans will in turn interpret as the beginning of a preemptive attack and fire their missiles for real. Bigger tragedy.

But this keeps getting lost in the drumbeat of people accusing me of being stupidly pro-American or racist against Koreans/Chinese/whatever.
_____________________

*South Korea is pretty calm about these things so I take their self-restraint for granted.

[The Xeelee]

I don't think (at least I hope not) that any war is intentionally inevitable. But the current situation allows for one trigger happy paranoid soldier to start a situation. Even then, I don't think it will evolve to open war.

[Col. Crackpot]

Those people are idiots Simon. Fatboy kim is clearly the fucktard who started this mess by threatening to nuke people. Yes the US credibility is clearly not whay it once was, but I think for the most part the response so far has been a neccicary evil. Yes we have to engage in a bit of dick waving and that rubs folks the wrong way... but the alternative is letting the asshole in the room beat up his neighbors for lunch money. A fair degree of measured pushback is needed. Folks like Stark et al would piss and moan regardless so I've learned to just ignore them.

[Tanasinn]

North Korea has done more than shell an island. I mean, they've committed assassinations, espionage, and terrorist attacks against the South for years. Shit, they kidnap people. I'm surprised how much the South is willing to put up with.