From the chart we can see that black-on-white murders comprised roughly 10% of all murders and white-on-black comprised 5% of all murders. Therefore the total number of black-on-white murders was 2 times greater than total number of white-on-black murders.
WHich is exactly what I just did for my thought experiment above. I simulated these exact same conditions and walked you through the math step by step.
So long as the chance that any one person will commit murder against any other person is exactly the same, the number of cross racial murders will always be identical for both races. Always. It does not matter what the population percentages are.
Here. Let me show you. 10% murderer, 130 blacks in the population 870 whites, exactly as it is in the subset of the population we are considering (I am not considering hispanics and everyone else etc)
87*.13=White people kill 11.31 blacks, rounded to 11
13*.87=Black people kill 11.31 white people, rounded to 11
To get the number of white people killed by black people to say, 22, all you need to do is double the chance of a black person being a murderer to 20% or give the original 10% a quota of 2 murders instead of 1, or some multiplicative combination of the two.
The problem you have is not in the numbers. It is your interpretation. You dont know what the numbers actually mean.
The much higher black-on-white murder rate was simply given as a demonstration that the idea that whites perform more violence on blacks is not true and might have been overplayed by me in retrospect.
Then you are committing a non-sequiter. All those murders, all of them, do not count Official Violence. Everyone knows there is a problem with crime in the black community, they commit double the violent crime than would be expected by chance (see my earlier post, 12.6% black population committing 22.4% of the violent crime). The problem is that they are not treated equally by the criminal justice system.
They are more likely to be arrested than they are likely to commit crimes.
They are more likely to die in police custody than a white person
The outcomes of their trials are different than the outcomes of trials for white people
And now to prove those statements.
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They arrested more often(38% of arrests for violent crime, but only commit 22.4% of it)
They are flat-out left to die in police custody more frequently. We would expect that with 30% of people arrested for all crime, and assuming rates of illness and accident are the same, that 30% of deaths in police custody from those causes would be black people. They are not. 42% of accidental deaths (trip, fall, hit your head and die sort of deaths) are black people. 37% of deaths from illness were black people.
And then the clincher. 42% of deaths from intoxication are black people. Remember, this is in police custody. So, we have more deaths from people who are overdosing on drugs or have alcohol poisoning than we should. The police literally let these people die.
You might be able to claim that more black people come in sick or on drugs. That does not track, because drug abuse rates are higher for white people than black people, and illness affects both equally. Then what about the accident rate? It is 1.4 times what it should be as a percent of the population in police custody. How the fuck does that happen? They are accidents they are random by definition. I will tell you how it happens. Some of those are not accidents, that is how it happens. They are murders that get called accidents.
So, let us compare likelihoods between races.
30% black in police custody
60% whites in police custody Note: some percent of these are white hispanics. The US has a very very very tiny percent of black hispanics, less than a percent. So, I will add them to the analysis by assuming 8.7%, subtracted from the 60% are white hispanics. This should yield conservative estimates, given that until the newest UCR that will come out next year, latino arrests are not tracked and assumed to be at the same rate as white people.
So a total of 51.3% of those in police custody are non-hispanic whites. The DOJ DOES tabulate hispanics, which is why I had to account for them above.
So, murdered by police in custody
White people: .448/.513=.842
Black people:.30/.30=1
Hispanic: .202/.087=2.32
Odds Ratio Blacks vs Whites: 1/.842=1.18
Odds Ratio White Hispanic vs White: 2.32/.842=2.76
This means that a black person is 18% more likely than a white person to be murdered by police in police custody. A hispanic is 276% more likely.
"Accidents"
White People: .372/.513=.725
Black People: .423/.3=1.41
Hispanics: .182/.087=2.09
Odds Ratio Blacks vs Whites: 1.42/.725=1.95
Odds Ratio Hispanics vs Whites: 2.09/.725=2.88
Pretty much the same basic pattern for everything else.
A note, I can update these numbers when the new UCR comes out next year. I assumed hispanics make up the same proportion that they do in the general population, and subtracted that from the white population.
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Then there is the bias in the legal system.
A white person kills a white person and claims self defense. They have a set probability of being found innocent of murder on that basis. A black person kills a white person, and they have a chance of acquittal that is 70% lower. A white person kills a black person? They have a chance of being found innocent that is 230% higher. Odds Ratio: 3.28, a black person who kills a white person is 3.28 times more likely to be convicted of murder if they claim self defense, as a white person who kills a black person.
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That is why people are pissed off. Non-white people are over and above more likely to be victimized by the police and court system--the very things supposed to defend them--than white people are.
And I'm under no obligation to do math for you, Captain Obtuse.
