Well, we've had a lot of discussion without much posting; I'm guessing Ahriman's school system is firing up and he's as busy as a one-handed paperhanger. Lord knows I am, but I'm taking some time here... this passage is from February, 1877 PD, in
House of Steel.
p. 103 wrote:"...So while no one can possibly fault His Majesty's willpower, moral courage, and determination to do the right thing, I think it is legitimate to ask whether or not his commitment to confronting the People's Republic militarily is the best option available to us." Joseph Dunleavy looked into the pickup, his expression suitably serious and just a touch troubled. "Obviously, when a star nation has been expanding its borders by force of arms, as well as voluntary annexations, for so long, it's necessary, as one Old Earth politician expressed over two thousand T-years ago, to 'Speak softly, but carry a big stick.' My concern, and that of those who approach these things from the same perspective as I do, is that His Majesty is giving too much emphasis to the stick and not enough to speaking softly."
Liberal Party talking head on the Manticoran equivalent of
Crossfire, outlining his basic objection to Roger's foreign and military policy. Dunleavy is a former professor of political science at a major university, and has been a senior Liberal Party foreign policy advisor for the past ten years or so. Across the table from him is... a woman named, I swear to god, I am not making this up, [groan]...
Hillary Palin.
"'Speaking softly' hasn't done any of the rest of the Peeps' victims a single bit of good, as far as I'm aware."
[snip paragraph about the show]
"I'll agree with you that a big stick is necessary to get the Peeps' attention," she went on, "but I'm pretty sure the two of us differ on whether the best negotiating ploy is to simply keep it handy or break their kneecaps with it."
Dunleavy rolls his eyes and has an internal monologue on [groan] Palin's background:
p. 104 wrote:...a nano and materials engineer... founded an industrial applications firm specializing in the development of advanced composits and (according to unconfirmed reports) radically advanced anti-energy weapon armors. No one had ever been able to prove the reports were true- the RMN was fiendishly good at protecting its technology after all- but Palin, Holder, and Mitchell, Ltd., had sold its patents to the Navy for upwards of seven billion dollars almost twenty-five T-years ago, when she first stood for election to the House of Commons as the Liberal Party's candidate for the Borough of South Thule on Sphinx.... she'd shifted her membership from the Liberals to the Centrists eleven T-years ago over the Basilisk annexation- and won reelection quite handily two more times since, despite the change in party affiliation...
Besides, if those rumors about the nature of her patents were true... she had a vested interest... in supporting the knuckle-draggers who thought warheads were the answer to any problem whenever they demanded yet another superdreadnought.
To be fair, it's not like Dunleavy is actually wrong about that.
Also, side note, but why do I get the feeling that South Thule is meant to be a stand-in for Alaska? [groans harder]
On a more serious versus-comparison note, we see here a brief mention of armor technology in the Honorverse. We're looking at nanotechnologically built-up layers of composites, intended to reflect and absorb energy from beam weapon attacks. LOTS of energy. Incidentally this makes them a real bear to cut up and work with during repairs and constructions.
Destroyers and light cruisers have very little of this armor as a percentage of their tonnage; heavy and battle-cruisers have somewhat more, and "ships of the wall" have a very large amount. Although given the stated mass and surface area of the things, it can't be more than... hm. Something like a
Gladiator-class SD has roughly two hundred thousand square meters of surface area on each broadside, so even if it's about one third armor by weight, that only leaves about five tons of armor plate to cover each square meter of hull. If the ship were armored with iron that would be a roughly meter-thick later of armor. These composites may be more or less dense, but not by that much- I'm sure they're heavier than an equal volume of balsa wood, and lighter than an equal volume of osmium bricks.
You'd be able to get a little more
effective protection against fire coming in directly on the plane of the ship's decks by taking advantage of the fact that Honorverse hulls are roughly circular in cross-section, so that the armor near the "top" and "bottom of the ship's broadside profile is sloped. This would in principle let you strip some of the armor off those surfaces and still get equivalent protection against incoming zap. Which in turn would let you put heavier armor along the centerline of the broadside profile, which is all to the good since that seems to be where Honorverse ships park their main battery broadside weapon mounts.
It seems likely that this technology works rather well against conventional laser weapons; you can do a lot with good material science to control a material's responses to visible light. Which would help to explain why lasers are pitched as "lighter" weapons than grasers when there is no obvious reason this should be true. The composites might (purely as speculation) reflect so much energy from a weaponized
optical laser pulse that, in sufficient thickness, they render the ship disproportionately resistant to kiloton/second or even megaton/second laser fire. IF that were true (purely speculatively) it would make optical laser weapons a bad (or at least inefficient) way to kill a heavily armored ship.
Gamma ray beams do not reflect worth a damn when they hit something made out of atoms, be it nanotech composite or otherwise, so a gamma ray laser would be a more efficient tool for blasting through such a heavy layer of anti-laser armor. Then the challenge is to design the armor as an ablative substance that will
absorb high energy gamma ray (and X-ray) photons, in the frequency ranges it is most likely to encounter, preferably while preserving its resistance to laser weapons. The only way I know to do that with armor made out of real atoms is to make it out of dense, heavy elements, like tungsten, uranium, or lead. If the Manticorans have a different trick I couldn't begin to guess what it is.
Anyway.
p. 104-5 wrote:Manticoran politicians always had to be careful about how they criticized the royal family. The Star Kingdom had a lively tradition of freedom of speech and even livelier political debate, and as the head of government as well as head of state, the monarch was expected to take his or her lumps along with everyone else. But there were limits to how those lumps could be administered. The sort of character assassination by innuendo and the politics of personal destruction which tended to rear their ugly heads from time to time in Parliamentary contests could not be applied to the reigning king or queen. Not unless the person foolish enough to make the attempt was prepared to kiss his own political career goodbye, at any rate. The Manticoran voting public was sufficiently cynical... to recognize... [politics as usual]... but there were some things it was not prepared to tolerate.
Which, in Joseph Dunleavy's opinion was completely irrational and gave people like Hillary Palin [groan- SJ] a grossly unfair advantage when it came to reasoned debate of public policy issues. All she had to do was tar him by implication with attacking Roger III personally, and his argument was cut off at the knees so far as anyone but the Party's fully committed base was concerned. And that, Dunleavy thought, as as unfortunate as it was unfair, given the fact that King Roger was clearly... significantly less than rational where the People's Republic of Haven was concerned.
So, the Manticoran public accepts a fair amount of political ambition and spin-doctoring, but freaks out when someone criticizes the royal family too sharply. Hm. Reminds me of Thailand.
It's hard not to sympathize a bit with Dunleavy here, viewing this from the point of view of a First World citizen who lives in a republic. Roger's a decent guy and all, but he didn't really
do anything to earn the intense devotion of his subjects. He happens to have good reasons to get serious about building up the RMN to meet the ongoing long term threat. But from the point of view of an outside observer he could easily come across as Captain Ahab to Haven's great white whale.
Come to think of it, Ahab got his ship sunk pursuing his obsessive vengeance against the whale, which would probably only make the analogy
more ominous to that outside observer.
Dunleavy goes on to acknowledge that the PRH is a serious threat, with an expansionist, militarist government. He denies and calls "idealistic but unfortunately misguided" the opinion that Manticore should engage in unilateral disarmament to defuse tensions. BUT...
p.106-7 wrote:"I and other members of the Liberal Party don't see eye-to-eye with [the Centrist government] on all matters," he continued. "Specifically, in terms of foreign policy, we believe that the Star Kingdom has a moral responsibility- to itself and to the galaxy at large- to go the extra kilometer in its efforts to avoid what would inevitably be the biggest, bloodiest, and most destructive war in the last millenium of human history. It's entirely possible, little though any of use like to contemplate such an outcome, that war is inevitable. That the so-called 'Big Navy' advocates are correct, and that only the actual use of military force will be sufficient in the end to bring to a halt the People's Republic's expansion...
...granting all of that, do we not have a responsibility- indeed, given the difference between our open, representative political system and the closed, military-dominated system which has plunged... Haven into darkness, do we not have a greater responsibility than Haven- to do all we can to prevent such a hugely destructive, bloody conflict?... we owe the galaxy better than to simply abandon any hope of stopping short of war. It doesn't matter what the People's Republic does or doesn't owe to itself or to anyone else; we owe ourselves the knowledge that we didn't simply follow a brutish, militaristic, repressive regime into the maw of warfare without first making every possible effort to avert that outcome."
Palin [groan] responds that
...the Peeps- and I include their civilian leadership in this, as well as the military; Joe's mistaken if he thinks there's any actual difference between them- believe in the use of 'brute force.' And, on the face of it... it's been working pretty well for them for the last thirty T-years or so.
To be fair, she has a point there too.
She goes on to outline the same issues that the Ominous Conference of Havenite Rulers reviews in the main line novels- that by this point, Haven is so firmly committed to the plan of annexing foreign star systems to fuel the economy of the capital world and a few key industrial centers that it couldn't really stop even if it wanted to, because that would blow up the domestic economy and probably result in the overthrow of the Legislaturalist government.
Then a snip from Dunleavy's reply:
p.108 wrote:[snip]...Have you actually listened to yourself? I don't believe I've heard you refer to the Havenites by anything other than the pejorative, jingoistic label of 'Peep' since this broadcast began. That kind of polarization reveals a demonization of our potential adversaries which is symptomatic of the Cromarty Government's tunnel vision where the People's Republic is concerned. It's very possible, perhaps even probable, that the simplistic view of the PRH's entire leadership as jackbooted thugs isn't as invalid as I would like it to be. But at this time, we have to find some means of engaging them in debate... [snip] They can gain so much more by trading with us... [snip] We need to find a way to convince them to take that path, demonstrate where their true self interest lies, rather than continuing blindly on the road of conquest and repression.
Palin [groans at name] replies.
"We've tried talking to them, Joe. For that matter, there was a time when we had a very close, cordial relationship with the Republic of Haven... [snip] But that relationship is gone. Their markets are closed, sealed off by a combination of trade restrictions and punitive import duties... [snip] It's possible we may be able to talk them into stopping short of our own frontier, short of the Junction, but the only way we'll convince them is by presenting an argument they can't ignore... [snip]
The most dangerous error a foreign policy maker can commit is to assume the people on the other side of a confrontation... [snip] are 'just like us.' That, under the surface, they share the same basic values, the same view of the galaxy. And, even more dangerous, that they interpret events, relationships, and opportunities the same way we do. Because the truth is, Joe, that not everyone does... and the Peeps don't.
She goes on to talk a little more about the idea that the Havenite government are rational actors acting under very different constraints and conditions, and thus do things that seem fundamentally irrational to Manticorans.
Now, to me this reads like a fairly mature and responsible political discussion, with a few fundamental faults. One being that Dunleavy is locked in a permanent holding pattern of "yes, but;" he's conceded the facts but persists in interpreting them differently so as to reach (probably) the same basic conclusion he would have arrived at thirty years ago when Haven had just begun beating people up for money. One might wonder if this has anything to do with prolong.
The other is that [groan] Palin
does actually seem to have an issue saying anything but "well, little as I like to admit it, we're probably going to have to bash the Peeps' heads in to get their attention." Of course, in the event, she turns out to be right, and the RMN has to do exactly that. So meh.
Cut to Allen Summervale (Duke Cromarty, the PM) reviewing the talk show exchange along with Roger.
p.111 wrote:"She's doing quite well, I think..." [snip] "In fact, she's doing better than I would, given the fact that I can't stand Dunleavy." The Prime Minister smiled without much humor. "Unlike a lot of his fellows, I think he's completely sincere in his beliefs. Arrogant and closed-minded, perhaps, and totally convinced of his own rectitude, but sincere and genuinely concerned about how many people will get hurt in any war against the Peeps. He's desperately determined to prevent that from happening- I have to give him credit for that, however irritating I personally find him. The problem is that he's walled that sincerity of his in with so many preconceptions reality just can't get through to him, and this in a man who's been shaping the Liberals' foreign policy for decades! Not to mention how damned supercilious he can be with anyone who dares to disagree with him, given his own indisputable brilliance. In his presence, I have a tendency to forget about our splendid traditions of freedom of speech and open, civil debate. In fact, I might as well admit he tends to make my pistol hand twitch."
Ah yes, the charming effects of the quaint Manticoran dueling custom on political mindsets. One cannot help but note that Cromarty comes across here as having long since given up on trying to convince Dunleavy, or anyone like him, of anything. That may partly be because they're all rather ossified in the mindset of the 1830s and 1840s (when they were young).
On the other hand, in a sense this kind of thing makes the Liberals
totally justified in saying that Cromarty (and Roger) are thinking with their muscles (missiles?).
There's some more discussion about the political situation. Manticoran public opinion is gradually shifting in favor of the Centrists' hardline view on Haven, and continues to strongly favor King Roger III personally and trust him to keep the nation safe. However, there is rather less support for Roger's desire to build up a "Manticoran Alliance" that gets Manticore tangled up in the defensive problems of small, poor, comparatively random star nations like Zanzibar, which we will hear more about later.
In hindsight, the main advantage of securing all those allies was that it stopped Haven from just gratuitously attacking Manticore directly by securing bases painfully close to the home system, and gives Manticore jumping-off points for a counteroffensive designed to take the war into
Haven's space. The disadvantage is that the Manticorans are stuck distributing all kinds of ships and advanced weapons into the hands of various foreign nations, some of which have their own serious political problems, some of which just turn into big defense commitments that soak up time and manpower, and at least one of which later goes on to actively sell out the high-tech weapons in question to the Havenites. It's kind of a mixed bag, and I can see both sides, but in the strategic paradigm of the time Roger is
probably right to be seeking allies.
Cromarty further observes that the Conservatives have nothing to lose from popular opinion shifting, as they have effectively no representation in the Commons. The Liberals DO have something to lose, maybe even a lot, and Cromarty predicts that they'll shift their opposition from Roger's (now popular) buildup to the (still not so popular) Alliance question.
Roger replies to this, then remarks that he "doesn't like" the way the Liberals are pushing to give Haven "more access" to the Basilisk terminus. Haven is asking for this on the grounds that they do put a lot of shipping through the junction and have an interest in the Silesian trade, but Roger doesn't like it because he feels that the Havenites do that in part to keep an eye on Manticore by sending ships to poke around its space. Besides which, Havenite foreign trade is (if you ask Roger) something of a basket case...
p. 113 wrote:...For that matter, both ONI and SIS are sure they're snagging data dumps from agents right here on Manticore in the process [of transiting the Junction]. And that doesn't even consider how much they want to keep the San Martinos aware of their presence by routing a few billion tons of shipping through Trevor's Star every year. Not to mention the fact that those freighters they're sending back and forth to the League are basically payoffs to people like Technodyne in return for the technology they can't produce anymore. They're nervous about the R and D they know about, and they'd be a hell of a lot more nervous if they knew about Gram. That's the reason they're grabbing every bit of tech from Technodyne they can, whatever that asshole Kolokoltsov is saying. You know that as well as I do, too. Their so-called legitimate trade in Silesia's a money loser for them too, now isn't it? In fact, it's basically only a way for them to cover at least the majority of their information-gathering expenses as they go swanning through Manticoran space with those remarkably sensitive 'civilian grade' sensor suites their freighters mount!
Roger is getting a wee bit paranoid, no? Foreign merchantmen are spying on the people they pass through? Gasp! Who could have suggested such a scheme? Oh, wait. Roger III of Winton.
More seriously, Roger's concerns here are reasonable, since Haven (like Manticore)
does use merchant ships as cover for intelligence activities. And, for that matter, has some merchant ships with ridiculous and powerful weapons that make them a military threat in their own right, as we learn when Honor's ship gets shot full of holes by such a 'merchant ship' in the first mainline novel.
So is it really paranoia if Haven actually IS out to get you?
More discussion on how Haven is trading with Solarian weapons manufacturers for equipment. The way their internal economy runs means that they have a serious foreign exchange problem, which they cope with by essentially bartering with Technodyne of Yildun and similar companies. Using their copious forced labor programs and power to loot whole planetary economies, Haven can provide Yildun with materials in exchange for a healthy sample of their weapons... by way of the Junction. These 'export version' Solarian weapons are considerably better than anything Haven can produce for itself "after so many decades of self-inflicted infrastructure damage."
In other words, the Havenite government is not stupid, they know Manticore is doing some kind of R&D work, and they're trying to counter as best they can. Which is admittedly not very well, since they've basically torpedoed their own academic establishment to the point where they are just plain not up to First Galaxy standards in science and advanced technology.
However, as of 1877 PD Haven either already has bought or is about to buy a working laser head design from Astral Energetics, now that the Andermani have it (see above; I think I rambled about this in one of my posts on the ships of the RMN). Roger doesn't know that Haven has one, but that doesn't mean they don't, since it's not like Haven is short of places to test-fire a lazormissile without anyone noticing.
Roger remembers happily that the secret weapons of Project Gram are located around Gryphon (yes, Gryphon, not Sphinx) orbiting Manticore-B, and are comfortably out of effective sensor range of any sneaky bastard Havenite surveillance ships near the junction. He's been collaborating with Klaus Hauptman on this, Hauptman being the man who effectively owns the "Unicorn Belt" asteroid fields that Adcock's team is using to test the weapons.
So despite what we've seen of him so far, Hauptman is not made of pure suck. Sort of.
Roger ends this section by resolving to create a permanent naval station in Basilisk. No fortifications, he promised- but he's going to at least station some light units there to keep an eye on things, particularly "any 'civilian Peep freighters' that happen to pass through." Cromarty foresees more political trouble, but doesn't really say anything about it.