Gas Attack in Syria

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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Dominus Atheos »

Thanas wrote:
Broomstick wrote:The bombing hasn't even started yet and already you've forgotten the weeks of other people saying "The US has to do something!" Same old story - everyone whines the Americans aren't doing something, then bitch when the something happens. Except, apparently, for those who start bitching about the something happening before the something is even started.
Citation needed for people demanding action from the US.
http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2013/0 ... omb-syria/

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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Simon_Jester »

I don't think Broomstick was talking about the media.

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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Grumman »

Broomstick wrote:
ChaserGrey wrote:Done right, the objective of the strikes would be to destroy the nerve gas stockpile, not topple Assad. And yes, you can do that with bombs. It will suck for anyone in the area, but less people will die than if the stockpile's used.
Really? Doesn't that depend on where those stockpiles are, and who is downwind of them? Bombing a pile of chemical weapons can potentially release toxic shit into the local area. What, exactly, would happen depends on how the weapons/chemicals involved - in some cases the precursor chemicals are in separate vessels and are only mixed to produce the toxic gas just prior to launch or even after launch while en route to target. Those probably aren't as hazardous to bomb as some others but I can't imagine the precursor chemicals are entirely harmless.
Think about it: how likely is it that a chemical weapon would be more dangerous by accident when it's bombed than when it is being used with the express purpose of killing people? By way of analogy, grappling a spree shooter might get someone shot as the gun is being waved around, but it's still safer than giving him time to aim.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by LaCroix »

Broomstick wrote:
ChaserGrey wrote:Done right, the objective of the strikes would be to destroy the nerve gas stockpile, not topple Assad. And yes, you can do that with bombs. It will suck for anyone in the area, but less people will die than if the stockpile's used.
Really? Doesn't that depend on where those stockpiles are, and who is downwind of them? Bombing a pile of chemical weapons can potentially release toxic shit into the local area. What, exactly, would happen depends on how the weapons/chemicals involved - in some cases the precursor chemicals are in separate vessels and are only mixed to produce the toxic gas just prior to launch or even after launch while en route to target. Those probably aren't as hazardous to bomb as some others but I can't imagine the precursor chemicals are entirely harmless.
Most chemical agents are moderately/highly flammable (explosive dispersol of Vx had a ~30% "dud" rate due to the spreader charge igniting the gas it tried to disperse), so a bombardment will neutralize most of the agent set free, especially if you mix some firebombs into the payload. Most...
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Broomstick »

Grumman wrote:Think about it: how likely is it that a chemical weapon would be more dangerous by accident when it's bombed than when it is being used with the express purpose of killing people? By way of analogy, grappling a spree shooter might get someone shot as the gun is being waved around, but it's still safer than giving him time to aim.
I'm not privy to the exact type of such weapons being used, of course so I can only speculate. IF it's one of the weapons that don't have to be mixed en route, that are essentially mixed up already and stored in containers, then bursting those containers would be much the same as bombing something with them.

Location is also important. While I agree that any sane regime is going to store shit like that away from people and in a bunker or other sort of secure facility, if they're being used they're outside of such a thing and potentially more vulnerable, even if not so much is in one spot. The other problem is if, in fact, it's the opposition to the government using it (which seems unlikely here but I don't think it's been entirely ruled out) then the shit might actually be inside a city because they don't have secure facilities like a government would.

Not as dangerous as finely targeted, no, but it still could be quite deadly.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Simon_Jester wrote:I don't think Broomstick was talking about the media.
Not so much them, but some of them certainly do seem to be pro-bomb. The media is currently showing images of refugees and claiming they are calling for US intervention, and given the number of refugees it's not improbable there are a few who are angry and just want those responsible dead.

I'll look for some cites that can be linked to, but since I do have to work today I might not be able to find any until I get home tonight.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Parliament has been recalled for Thursday.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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And the Arab League has released a statement holding the Assad Regime responsible for the chemical attacks.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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That is no surprise with Saudi-Arabia heavily financing the rebels already.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Dr Roberts »

Parliament are expected to vote in favour of action on Thursday but I don't know what that action will be. Jordan has said it doesn't want to be used as a launching ground but Turkey seems to support intervention.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Patroklos »

NPR Morning Addition had an ex Syrian ambassador on this morning that characterized the decision to use chemical weapons by Assad to be perhaps an attempt to call Obama's bluff a second time to basically convince the rebels that help is never coming and break their moral.

That seems horribly risky, but looking at it from the perspective of a megalomaniacal dictator it has the added benefit of staring down the POTUS man to man. Which unfortunetly for Assad will probably force Obama's hand because the loss of face for the US pretty much makes no response impossible this time around. The best he can hope for is that the airstrikes are relatively minor so he can pretend to laugh them off (and that may work for some select audiances). I don't think they will be minor if they do happen but rather at least enough to tip the momentum to the favor of the rebels, the govenment have a tenuous advatage at best as it is.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Dr Roberts »

Yeah, France has just said that it will up military support. Clearly leaders are trying to raise public opinion of intervention.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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The thing I am concerned about is the exit plan. What comes after Assad is gone? Another Saudi-financed Islamic dictatorship replacing a secular one? Or worse, Iraq 2.0? Nobody seems to have an answer for that other than "We must do something" which is never a good idea.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Dr Roberts »

Well these sort of things have no precedent in that before the late 20th Century and now regime change on moral grounds and of those attempted I can't think of a success.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Thanas »

Also, will Obama break his word again?

Regarding action without congressional approval:
OBAMA: The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by NettiWelho »

Thanas wrote:Also, will Obama break his word again?

Regarding action without congressional approval:
OBAMA: The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.
Lucky for Obama he can freely label his actions whatever he wants to skirt around any laws. For example, coup is not a coup if you simply refuse to formally recognize it as such.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50153286n
White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the White House has concluded "it is not in the best interest of the United States" to call the situation in Egypt a "coup."
Also; more on target:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13820727
http://yro.slashdot.org/story/11/06/18/ ... ot-hostile
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/18/world ... ml?_r=2&hp&
Barack Obama overruled the advice of administration lawyers in deciding the US could continue participating in the Libya conflict without congressional approval .... ....
The White House insists the president did not need congressional approval to authorise US support for Nato's mission, because the military campaign is limited in scope. ...
Not satisfied with the legal conclusion of the DOJ, the Obama administration found other in-house lawyers willing to declare a bomb dropped from a drone is not 'hostile'.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Not satisfied with the legal conclusion of the DOJ, the Obama administration found other in-house lawyers willing to declare a bomb dropped from a drone is not 'hostile'.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Stas Bush wrote:
Not satisfied with the legal conclusion of the DOJ, the Obama administration found other in-house lawyers willing to declare a bomb dropped from a drone is not 'hostile'.
Thank you for this. I didn't even know such a thing was possible. Now I know.
What do you expect from the guy that decided that an "imminent threat" need not be imminent nor a threat?
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Thanas wrote:
Broomstick wrote:The bombing hasn't even started yet and already you've forgotten the weeks of other people saying "The US has to do something!" Same old story - everyone whines the Americans aren't doing something, then bitch when the something happens. Except, apparently, for those who start bitching about the something happening before the something is even started.
Citation needed for people demanding action from the US.
NPR reported this afternoon that the Saudis, through their ambassador, have been lobbying heavily for U.S. intervention for some time.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Not satisfied with the legal conclusion of the DOJ, the Obama administration found other in-house lawyers willing to declare a bomb dropped from a drone is not 'hostile'.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Hillary »

I sort of sympathise with Broomstick's point a little. The US is in a bit of a "damned if they do, damned if they don't scenario". However, it is largely of its own making through its previous actions.

Obama has rather dropped himself in it by his earlier ultimatum - now that Assad has crossed that line, he's left with the options of losing his credibility or committing to unwanted military action - being a politician, credibility was always going to trump the cost and suffering of air strikes.

Why we in the UK feel the need to get involved is completely beyond me - but there is the Blair-like glint of Christian Morality in Cameron's make-up which may explain it.

I guess, to be fair to both, it can't be easy sitting watching Assad behave this badly with the knowledge that you have the fire power to stop him if you wished. However, we all know that involvement is, in the longer run, likely to make the situation no better and, in all probability, make it worse. This isn't going to end well, is it?
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Apologies for the OT - but where is Shroom? I've been noticing his absence as well.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by K. A. Pital »

Hillary wrote:Apologies for the OT - but where is Shroom? I've been noticing his absence as well.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

Post by Hillary »

Stas Bush wrote:
Hillary wrote:Apologies for the OT - but where is Shroom? I've been noticing his absence as well.
Shroom's IRL. Which is the most useful way to spend the time given to us all.
Thanks, Stas - glad to hear it's for a good reason.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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OK, having reviewed where I'm getting information from, I think the “the US should do something” calls are coming from the following:

1) A subset of refugees – the video media has been interviewing refugees from the fighting and has found a number who want someone (anyone, really) to “do something”, mostly kill whoever was responsible for the gas attacks. I suppose if you want someone to bomb/kill someone asking the Americans to do it makes a certain sense given recent history. These same people also emphasize they don't want the Americans in Syria or running it, they just want a few cruise missiles or drones to take out the people responsible for the chemical weapons.

2) Some members of the Arab League
, such as Saudi Arabia. However, this isn't a whole-hearted endorsement and it's clear they'd like buy-in by the UN. It's clear that however much they'd like the Americans to kill those responsible they don't want Americans interfering in Syria like in Iraq, which is an entirely understandable point of view.

3) The UK and now France seem to be on board with cruise missiles or whatever is being planned. The Wall Street Journal reports that Turkey is on board now, too.

4) Lots of Op-Ed pieces in the US media (haven't checked the foreign Op-Ed) are pro-”do something”, but I wasn't considering them because they are opinion. There are also Op-Ed pieces on the opposite side, though a minority in the US.

5) Politicians in the US and UK
who feel they now have to do something or lose face or, I dunno, have their dicks shrink or something.

6) Some opposition groups in Syria seem to be hoping that a strike will weaken Assad's regime enough for them to finish taking it down.

On the opposite side we have

A) Russia definitely and China presumably opposed. Without those two on board this won't get past the UN security council. I'm assuming that the Russians and Chinese are anti-intervention because the chemical weapons were used in an internal affair of Syria and both those countries seem to feel that whatever the ruling power of a nation does to suppress rebellion and dissent is OK and no one else's business. And, oh yes, Syria is an ally/client of Russia. I suspect that if the Syrians had used gas against another nation those two countries might feel differently.

B) Some members of the Arab League, who really don't want more American involvement in the Mid East. Given recent history, I don't blame them for that sentiment. Lebanon and Jordan fear it will escalate the fighting and it could spill over into their territory, and even if it doesn't, it will still result in even more Syrian refugees in their countries. Egypt is opposed. This means that while a few members of the Arab League are in favor the majority are opposed to a military response.

C) A different sub-set of refugees from the fighting in Syria, same reasons as B

D) Apparently, Europe aside from the UK and France are opposed to intervention

E) The “street” in the US and UK. Really. Stop listening to the US government for a minute, the general public in the US is not at all eager to get into yet another war. The video media went to places like State Fairs, usually bastions of covervative/pro-military/AMERICA FUCK YEAH! and mostly found opinions ranging from “let's not” to “let someone else do it if it's so important”. Unfortunately, I don't expect Americans as a whole to do jackshit if the government does start another war (damn sheeple).

If South America or Asian nations outside of China have an opinion no one in the Anglo-sphere seems to be reporting on it. Australian newspapers are reporting on the situation but so far as I know haven't mentioned any sort of Australian position on the matter (I'm presuming they're intending not to get involved at all)

The people pushing military intervention a.k.a. bombing seem to be US and UK politicians. The rest who are pro “do something” are decidedly reluctant to use military force and would be happy for someone to suggest a response that isn't military. I'm not sure what else there is – a sternly worded warning? That's been done. Sanctions? It's a civil war, I doubt foreign disapproval is going to have an impact on whoever was desperate enough to use these weapons.

Which brings up another point – it is NOT, despite the statements of salivating politicians, conclusively proven that Assad's regime is responsible. They are are a logical suspect, but nerve agents have been manufactured and deployed by non-government entities.. I find it suspicious that the opposition seems reluctant to allow the UN inspectors into the affected region, and no one wants to claim the snipers that fired on them.
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Re: Gas Attack in Syria

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Hillary wrote: Apologies for the OT - but where is Shroom? I've been noticing his absence as well.
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