Poland's Pension Reform

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Murazor
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Poland's Pension Reform

Post by Murazor »

From Reuters
* Reform moves bond assets from private to state fund
* Some equity assets to gradually move to state as well
* Changes seen reducing Polish public debt by 8 pct of GDP
* Funds say moves could be unconstitutional
* Warnings that private pension funds could be wiped out
By Dagmara Leszkowicz and Chris Borowski
WARSAW, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Poland said on Wednesday it will transfer to the state many of the assets held by private pension funds, slashing public debt but putting in doubt the future of the multi-billion-euro funds, many of them foreign-owned.
The changes went deeper than many in the market expected and could fuel investor concerns that the government is ditching some business-friendly policies to try to improve its flagging popularity with voters.
The Polish pension funds' organisation said the changes may be unconstitutional because the government is taking private assets away from them without offering any compensation.
Announcing the long-awaited overhaul of state-guaranteed pensions, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said private funds within the state-guaranteed system would have their bond holdings transferred to a state pension vehicle, but keep their equity holdings.
He said that what remained in citizens' pension pots in the private funds will be gradually transferred into the state vehicle over the last 10 years before savers hit retirement age.
The reform is "a decimation of the ...(private pension fund) system to open up fiscal space for an easier life now for the government," said Peter Attard Montalto of Nomura. "The government has an odd definition of private property given it claims this is not nationalisation."
Tusk said people joining the pension system in the future would not be obliged to pay into the private part of the system. Depending on the finer points, this could mean still fewer assets in the private funds.
"The (current) system has turned out to be built in part on rising public debt and turned out to be a very costly system," Tusk told a news conference.
"We believe that, apart from the positive consequence of this decision for public debt, pensions will also be safer."
MARKET FEARS
By shifting some assets from the private funds into ZUS, the government can book those assets on the state balance sheet to offset public debt, giving it more scope to borrow and spend.
Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said the changes will reduce public debt by about eight percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
This in turn, he said, would allow the lowering of two thresholds that deter the government from allowing debt to raise over 50 percent, and then 55 percent, of GDP. Public debt last year stood at 52.7 percent of GDP, according to the government's own calculations.
The private funds hold assets worth about one fifth of Polish economic output and are among the biggest investors on the Warsaw bourse. Players in the pension market include international firms such as ING, Aviva, Axa , Generali and Allianz.
Bonds make up roughly half the private funds' portfolios, with the rest company stocks.
Soon after Tusk unveiled his plans, the benchmark index on the Warsaw stock exchange was down 2.6 percent on the day.
"This is worse than many on the markets had feared," a manager at one of the leading pension funds, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters.
"The devil is in the detail and we don't yet know a lot about the mechanism of these changes, what benchmarks will be use to evaluate our performance... (It) looks like pension funds will lose a lot of flexibility in what they can invest."
Polish officials have tried to reassure investors, saying the overhaul avoids the more radical options of taking both bond and equity assets away from the private funds outright.
They say the old system effectively made Polish public debt appear higher than it really is.
UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR FUNDS
Poland has a hybrid pension system at the moment; mandatory contributions are made into both the state pension vehicle, known as ZUS, and the private funds, which are collectively known by the Polish acronym OFE.
The funds would effectively be left with only the equities portions of their assets, even this would be depleted, and there will be uncertainty about the number of new savers joining.
"This may lead to the private pension systems shutting down," said Rafal Benecki of ING Bank Slaski.
Policy in Poland is still much more prudent than in many of its European peers. However, the reform could erode Poland's reputation under Tusk for steady financial stewardship.
In the past few months, the opinion poll rating of Tusk's Civic Platform party has, for the first time in years, slipped below that of the main opposition, the conservative Law and Justice Party.
Though the next election is not until 2015, some analysts believe electoral concerns are already influencing economic policy and pushing the government to find scope for spending.

No possible way this can go wrong, sir. Nope.
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Irbis
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Re: Poland's Pension Reform

Post by Irbis »

Murazor wrote:No possible way this can go wrong, sir. Nope.
:roll:

Yes, it can go badly. But, one thing the article "forgot" to mention about, the main reason why PO, the most liberal and pro-business party Poland had in power since 1989 (ironically, '89 because the 1988 communist government enacted ridiculously liberal laws, but I digress) did this: because OFE (pension funds) are, and could never be anything but, one big scam.

How do they work? Simple, state gives OFE % of money from wages, OFE skim off their provision off the top (which was incidentally outright robbery until high provision was forbidden by law), they take it and invest it into state bonds, which after a set time are bought by state with interest; skim off another provision, rinse and repeat. In effect, they are parasites doing what national pension fund is doing already, just skimming off billions to abroad companies. The bit of money they were allowed to invest into actions? Oops, turns out they did badly with that, 2008-2009 saw huge sums wiped out by crisis.

But even the above is not the real problem. The real problem came out in last years when it came time for the first gullible to finally receive their pensions. You see, when the OFE starts paying funds it had to set monthly amount for the funds to last the retired person's life. Turns out this is difficult, so they proposed they will set it to hard 10 year period (life expectancy). Imagine - 77 year old that needs more money than ever for medicines suddenly stops receiving money because after decades of skimming off the top OFE decided they no longer owe anything. Oh, and if you die before 10 years is due? OFE put multiple proposals to pay as little of the money as possible to heirs.

To sum it up - it's hugely unfair system stealing large sums for doing something state fund already did and not even succeeding in one thing it was supposed to do, help state pay larger/longer pensions. In fact, with rising life expectancy they will be smaller and shorter - so why bother? :roll:
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PainRack
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Re: Poland's Pension Reform

Post by PainRack »

Woah Irbis.... Just how did that situation happen?
Let him land on any Lyran world to taste firsthand the wrath of peace loving people thwarted by the myopic greed of a few miserly old farts- Katrina Steiner
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Irbis
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Re: Poland's Pension Reform

Post by Irbis »

PainRack wrote:Woah Irbis.... Just how did that situation happen?
Rant:

How? Because economic dilettante Balcerowicz, ultra-radical neocon and laissez-faire proponent (who even after 2008 adamantly claimed 'no state is good state' and blamed the crisis not on banking system, but on overgrown state regulations in finances) happened to be coalition's vice-prime minister in charge of finances. Since that government was at once populist (meaning no one with real education in charge) and anti-"communist", Balcerowicz had an easy time selling anti-left reform the results of which would be only visible in 10-12 years.

That reform was energetically supported by his buddies from big finance corporations that would be soon in charge of OFE by spending billions on ads 'how good retirement will be in new system' and the result is a ticking bomb that has to be disarmed somehow, with no good option how to tackle it. True, Tusk and Rostowski probably have ulterior motivation of not rocking the boat before elections (for which they need to not reach debt ceiling) but at the same time, they realize they need to deal with it now while they can or it will explode soon bringing in massive wave of discontent and distability.

Incidentally, Balcerowicz got his seat in 1998 due to his fame of radical* anti-communist reforms in 1990, which were (to everyone sane) as botched as his later one, as they left big part of the country economically ruined and Poland as a whole poorest of ex-Warsaw Pact states. Even today, divide between sound Poland A and poor Poland B persists. He is also responsible for 1999 'preventive cooling' of economy that rose 7% per year for multiple years to negative numbers - how anyone still listens to that disgraced slime is beyond me.

*so radical, in fact, I read years later in memoirs of US advisor that helped Balcerowicz to write it that even the Americans in team were shocked what he did to their draft, making it far more extreme in run to destroy 'communist system' with no regard at all for society's well being and bankrupting a lot of companies that could have been saved and profitably sold later, just because they were 'ineffective state junk'.
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