Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

So you said Nazis don't run the show.

Sorry, but they do. Andriy Parubiy, founder of the neonazi Party in Ukraine, personal friend of Tiagnibok and commander of all "self-defence forces" in the Maidan mostly formed from fascists and radical nationalists, is now in charge of Ukraine's Security and National Defence Council. His replacement, vice-leader, is Yarosh, leader of the "Right Sector".

Who of you said that nazis and fascists will not be given control over the armed forces and police? What will you say now?

Parubiy already talked to Saakashvili on how to "deal with Crimea".

Once again: Ukraine is not a democracy. Power is controlled by a revolutionary junta. Neofascists directly control the armed wings of power, like the Defence Council, a neofascist was appointed by the Rada just this day.

I think illusions about "peaceful democratic protestors" will be quickly dispelled after the fascists clean their ranks and the infighting produces a "king rat" who'll rule whatever's left of Ukraine by then.

[Thanas]

Oh come on. If people from Brussels can't see Nazi symbols right under their nose, yeah, they're probably unqualified to be the judging bureaucrats, I agree. Fatal blow to democracy - is the failure of this parliamentary democracy to provide people with any semblance of a decent life, their states are being run by thugs, liars and security fanatics, but instead leading nations into financial ruin, collapse, civil strife and finally another strongman coming out on top of things. EU transfusions may help to slow this process, but I highly doubt they'll reverse it.

And what happens as soon as the fascists transform into not displaying their symbols publicly and try to become more electable? All this does is push fascism into forms that makes it acceptable to more people.

Europe and America almost destroyed the economy of Tehran because they thought they wanted to have nuclear weapons, a right that a sovereign state has and will always have.

And you think this is a good idea? Because that is what you are saying if you want states to be punished for what a fraction of their populace wants.

Ethnic Russians who stood side by side with the very fascists and nazis that on their web forums say Russians are the eternal enemy and should be forcibly ukrainized are most likely useful idiots, often they're recruited from football fan groups that are infused with right-wing fascist movements.

Or maybe the situation is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

I can understand why the Crimean Tatars, who formed the majority population on the peninsula before the Russian annexation in 1783 and still was a sizeable minority before the peninsula was ethnically cleansed in 1944, are deadset against any integration with Russia

You want to allow 10% of the population to dictate its will to the others? I like democracy, but this is not it. This is ethnocracy and ethnic dictatorship.

Wait, when the Russian minority does it it is good but when the Tartar minority does it it is suddenly ethnocracy? Shouldn't by that argument the Russian minority also suck it up?

If the "armed men" are loyal to another country, why their only demand is a referendum on Crimean status? Why not demand the deputees to sign a declaration of independence at gunpoint?

Because they know that if they only let the russian minority vote on it, they can look good while getting the same outcome.

I have not heard that Tatars in Kazan, Russia, suffered recently. So even in the worst case (Crimea goes to Russia, not becomes independent) I don't think minorities will suffer. Also, Russians are a minority in the Ukraine, their rights currently are being trampled. Should Europe do anything?

You don't think, but just look at the chechens in Russia facing widespread discrimination. "You don't think" does not seem to be a valid point here. Russia is just as racist.

BTW Stas, why are Russian forcesseizing airports in the Crimea?


As for your spiel with the singulary focus on fascists, you should also be fair and point out that Arsenij Jazenjuk was voted as prime minister.

[K. A. Pital]

And what happens as soon as the fascists transform into not displaying their symbols publicly and try to become more electable? All this does is push fascism into forms that makes it acceptable to more people.

Okay. How do you fight fascism then? That's a serious question. NSDAP was elected by the majority. Coalition parties turned out to be fascist stooges. That happened in Germany very recently. Banning fascists doesn't work, all right. However, letting them come to power doesn't work either, unless they lose it very quickly.

And you think this is a good idea? Because that is what you are saying if you want states to be punished for what a fraction of their populace wants.

Let's wait and see, I'm not saying this should be done now. If fascists get the majority in the elections, what then?

Or maybe the situation is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

It's anything but clear cut. Country's on the brink of collapse.

Wait, when the Russian minority does it it is good but when the Tartar minority does it it is suddenly ethnocracy? Shouldn't by that argument the Russian minority also suck it up?

Yes, Russian minority in the Ukraine's East has to suck it up and will suck it up. They have not indicated any will towards separation, independence or something. Therefore they will and have to suck it up. Crimeans are a different thing. The Ukrainian language there is nigh nonexistent, and I'm not sure the Tatars are so eager to speak it, too.

Because they know that if they only let the russian minority vote on it, they can look good while getting the same outcome.

Crimea is like 80% Russian. If you are asking people of a region whether they want to belong to one state or be independent or go to some other state, it is natural to ask people only from that region. The will of the others is irrelevant there. Is this not what you did with Kosovo?

You don't think, but just look at the chechens in Russia facing widespread discrimination.

Because Russia fought a war with Chechens recently, it must fight and oppress Tatars? Because America throws Arabs in jail and discriminates against them, it must also opress Asians? This doesn't even follow.

BTW Stas, why are Russian forcesseizing airports in the Crimea?

Russian forces? Not rebel Eastern forces? Ukraine just disbanded it's special forces units, and from what I heard, Kiev said that it's the rebel policemen and some military guys. But if you think they're Russian, where's the proof?

[Thanas]

And what happens as soon as the fascists transform into not displaying their symbols publicly and try to become more electable? All this does is push fascism into forms that makes it acceptable to more people.

Okay. How do you fight fascism then? That's a serious question. NSDAP was elected by the majority. Coalition parties turned out to be fascist stooges. That happened in Germany very recently. Banning fascists doesn't work, all right. However, letting them come to power doesn't work either, unless they lose it very quickly.

I think we are mixing a few things together here on different levels. On the domestic levels, banning fascist displays and parties can work in seriously hindering fascists, as evidenced in Germany where the NPD is always on the defence. On the international levels, it does nothing if fascists have a support of the populace and can whip it into a us vs them scenario. Sanctions meanwhile can work depending on the situation.

As to the specific situation in the Ukraine, I think the EU should force them to abandon policies with fascist backgrounds (of course only if they are truly fascists and not just if Putin thinks they are). This would best be done with secret diplomacy coupled to the finance package they need.

Let's wait and see, I'm not saying this should be done now. If fascists get the majority in the elections, what then?

Then we put pressure on them and try to sway public opinion. Which works sometimes (see Austria) but does not always work (see Hungary although there the EU is not trying hard enough IMO).

It's anything but clear cut. Country's on the brink of collapse.

On that we agree.

Yes, Russian minority in the Ukraine's East has to suck it up and will suck it up. They have not indicated any will towards separation, independence or something. Therefore they will and have to suck it up. Crimeans are a different thing. The Ukrainian language there is nigh nonexistent, and I'm not sure the Tatars are so eager to speak it, too.

But what is the Crimean situation if not a minority within a state deciding to become seperate, i.e. an ethnocracy as you termed it? Lastly, it does apparently matter more for the tartars to not be members of Russia (where they probably won't get their own language either) than to be able to speak their own language. Their wishes should be respected.

Crimea is like 80% Russian. If you are asking people of a region whether they want to belong to one state or be independent or go to some other state, it is natural to ask people only from that region. The will of the others is irrelevant there. Is this not what you did with Kosovo?

Yes and I am quite content to let the Crime get on its way provided the tartars get their independence as well. But you were earlier arguing against ehtnocracies, so I assumed that would also extend to the Russians?

Because Russia fought a war with Chechens recently, it must fight and oppress Tatars? Because America throws Arabs in jail and discriminates against them, it must also opress Asians? This doesn't even follow.

That is dodging the issue. The discrimination of minorities living in Russia is well underway, the Chechens are just the most striking example. Thus it stands to reason the Tartars would probably fare as bad if not worse in Russia.

Russian forces? Not rebel Eastern forces? Ukraine just disbanded it's special forces units, and from what I heard, Kiev said that it's the rebel policemen and some military guys. But if you think they're Russian, where's the proof?

The article noted that Sewastopol was taken over by Russian forces, Sinferopol is taken over by unmarked guys in soldier gear using unmarked trucks. The German media also noted that a dozen military trucks left the Russian base for Sinferopol, all unmarked. Whether they are Russian or local milita aided by the Russians makes little difference IMO.

[Siege]

How do you fight fascism then?

Seriously? Are we really having this discussion right now?

Strongmen are elected when citizens become desperate enough to believe that the only way out of whatever predicament they are in is to elect a strongman to cut through red tape, reverse the runaway inflation, create jobs, shoot his corrupt predecessors, eliminate the undesirables, or do whatever the fuck else to resolve whatever the predicament is / is being blamed on.

That's why extremists of any stripe become popular whenever countries are in dire straits: because they offer easy solutions to complex problems. Follow us, we have what it takes to make this country strong again! All we need to do is remove [insert group to blame here] from power to [insert crisis to resolve here]! Use rhetoric, shift blame, take power. Welcome to extremist political ideology 101.

So how do you fight it? You fight it by fighting desperation. Hell, Stas, you said it yourself: "provide people with [a] semblance of a decent life". Take away the desperation and you remove the fascists' source of power. People in tight spot will flock to whoever promises them a quick fix. Get them out of that tight spot and they're infinitely more likely to view strongmen as an undesirable solution.

That's why the EU doesn't kick out states that have fascist parties in power: because it's counterproductive. Kick them out, remove them from the common market, cut them off from EU subsidies, raise the trade barriers -- if their economy was doing badly before it'll be sure to spiral out of control now. The result? Dire straits get more dire, and the fascists will have an easy external target to blame their countries' woes on: it's not us, it's those bad guys in Brussels! They fear us, they don't want us to be strong, but if you just follow us and step up the beatings we can overcome anything!

Fan-fucking-tastic, you've just made a bad situation even worse.

Do you honestly think the people in charge in Brussels don't see the Nazi symbols, that amongst the teeming hordes of bureaucrats there's nobody checking the manifestos of the parties now running the place, that they can't figure out that there might be some deeply unpleasant people involved with the revolution? Come off it. Of course they know. That's precisely why the €20 billion credit line is being offered, because if it's not Ukraine will be even worse off, and then what? Brussels cannot afford to just let Ukraine collapse into an even worse version of itself because that doesn't solve anything, it just makes problems worse.

How do you fight fascism? Well in this case, you hand the country sacks full of cash in the hopes that the economy will do better or at least keep going so that the appeal of fascism will diminish or at least not get bigger. You know, the exact opposite of what shutting the door on Ukraine would achieve.

This isn't exactly rocket science guys.

[Mange]

Russian forces? Not rebel Eastern forces? Ukraine just disbanded it's special forces units, and from what I heard, Kiev said that it's the rebel policemen and some military guys. But if you think they're Russian, where's the proof?

It seems as if it's Russian forces as that was reported by Interfax as well. A reporter from the British BBC has also reported that he met ten lorries with Russian military plates heading towards Simferopol: BBC News (timestamp 11:17). And at 11:09, another reporter says that a Russian officer is present at a roadblock.

[K. A. Pital]

If, Thanas, Tatars are going to suffer horrible discrimination in Russia, why Ossetians aren't suffering the same fate? You think South Ossetians wanted to be with Georgia? It seems not. They've been all but annexed by Russia, since the other part of Ossetia is also in Russia.

Now I want the Russian government to crash horribly (perhaps tripping on a 'little victorious war' may help here), but it doesn't mean I am completely oblivious to the situation with minorities in Russia.

Who really is oppressed? Tajiks, Uzbeks, and yeah, Chechens. The latter have been involved in a war, but the Tajiks and Uzbeks are pretty much getting the sharp end of the stick for their poverty, and lawless exploitation on construction sites. In effect, just like some central EU states, Russia runs an army of migrants as an underclass and these migrants aren't cared about by Europe. Nor by Russia. In fact, Europe has allowed Central Asia to fall into horrible regimes and has closed its eyes on the suffering of Central Asians in Russia (or the cleansing of Russians and mutual ethnic cleansings of Uzbeks and Tajiks in Central Asia itself).

This now means that Tatars face discrimination? That's hardly true. Unlike most of the really opressed minorities, Tatars have their own republic, by some accounts the third most well-off town in Russia, and their own TV channels and newspapers.

Sevastopol was taken over by the protesters, who are Russian, well before any movements of paramilitaries. SBU was searching for "Russian BTRs", but couldn't find any. I highly doubt - even if it was Russia, I mean come on, Russian special services couldn't be that dumb! - people would be able to prove that these rebels are Russian as in, actually current servicemen of the Russian military, and not just armed ethnic Russians staging a rebellion.

I agree that cutting off supplies now would be actually counterbeneficial. I hope Ukraine gets the money from Europe.

[Mange]

Russia has confirmed troop movements in the Crimea, and says it has informed the Ukrainian government, to protect its naval base. The quote by the purported Black Sea officer was interesting... The Telegraph

[Thanas]

Stas, the Crimean tatars do not really want to be part of Russia by all accounts.

Sevastopol was taken over by the protesters, who are Russian, well before any movements of paramilitaries. SBU was searching for "Russian BTRs", but couldn't find any. I highly doubt - even if it was Russia, I mean come on, Russian special services couldn't be that dumb! - people would be able to prove that these rebels are Russian as in, actually current servicemen of the Russian military, and not just armed ethnic Russians staging a rebellion.

a) What is SBU?
b) BTR is the wrong search term. By all accounts they are moving only in trucks.

[IronStar]

Sorry, but they do. Andriy Parubiy, founder of the neonazi Party in Ukraine, personal friend of Tiagnibok and commander of all "self-defence forces" in the Maidan mostly formed from fascists and radical nationalists, is now in charge of Ukraine's Security and National Defence Council. His replacement, vice-leader, is Yarosh, leader of the "Right Sector".

This. I confirm these appointments- info about them is at Ukraine news sites. At the moment- enforcement pretty much belongs to right sector. It seems that all info i ve posted was not enough.....(of course- its all "Kremlin propaganda" which is not)

the Crimean tatars do not really want to be part of Russia by all accounts

It is not entirely true. From my info- there are some tatars along anti-maidan movement. And most anti- russian rhetorics comes from so called "Mezdlis"(organization which claims to represent ALL crimean tatars) and this it not the single organization representing tatars. I ve checked some opinions of notable members of crimean Tatars community- one of notable ones is interwiew with Vasvi Abduraimov on IslamicNews.ru- notable activist of crimean tatars movement since 1987 and leader of "Milly Firka" tatarian party- he claims that Mezdlis has support of 10% of crimean tatars only(according to 2012 elections) and that a lot of tatars dont share the point of view of Mezdlis.
Also- he claims that that recent tatars protest in simferopol was influenced by tatarian suppoters of hizb ut tahrir.
And please-dont even begin to throw shit at me- i just show another info and other opinions.
By the way- it may seem strange for you but on that very demonstration tatars had right sector flags and were shouting this fascist "Glory to Ukraine glory to heroes" motto.
By the way- Mezdlis is quite radical and ruthless organization- i can later tell how recently they were terrorizing two crimean historians.

About russian army in Crimea- governmental bodies in simfereopol were taken and occupied not by them but by units organized by crimean protesters(its only that new government which claims them to be russian special forces)
while these in airports are likely to be russian

SBU is akin to National Security Agency
BTR is APC
And while this is not confirmed- right sector has an APC and it guards parliament(i ll provide foto and vid later if you want)

[Thanas]

It is not entirely true. From my info- there are some tatars along anti-maidan movement. And most anti- russian rhetorics comes from so called "Mezdlis"(organization which claims to represent ALL crimean tatars) and this it not the single organization representing tatars. I ve checked some opinions of notable members of crimean Tatars community- one of notable ones is interwiew with Vasvi Abduraimov on IslamicNews.ru- notable activist of crimean tatars movement since 1987 and leader of "Milly Firka" tatarian party- he claims that Mezdlis has support of 10% of crimean tatars only(according to 2012 elections) and that a lot of tatars dont share the point of view of Mezdlis.
Also- he claims that that recent tatars protest in simferopol was influenced by tatarian suppoters of hizb ut tahrir.
And please-dont even begin to throw shit at me- i just show another info and other opinions.
By the way- it may seem strange for you but on that very demonstration tatars had right sector flags and were shouting this fascist "Glory to Ukraine glory to heroes" motto.
By the way- Mezdlis is quite radical and ruthless organization- i can later tell how recently they were terrorizing two crimean historians.

Yeah well I don't believe a word of it. Show me tatars supporting the Russian takeover and I will.

About russian army in Crimea- governmental bodies in simfereopol were taken and occupied not by them but by units organized by crimean protesters(its only that new government which claims them to be russian special forces)
while these in airports are likely to be russian

Agreed. Which confirms that Russia is indeed moving in and violating the sovereignty of Ukraine without provocation.

SBU is akin to National Security Agency
BTR is APC
And while this is not confirmed- right sector has an APC and it guards parliament(i ll provide foto and vid later if you want)

I know what a BTR is and it is not the right search term. The russians are moving with lorries right now in Sinferopol, not in APCs.

[IronStar]

Yeah well I don't believe a word of it

Sure you are. These some examples https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efto7AfAFjY it is mall but still
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v4FpKmhiKw representatives of other tatar communities give interview to crimean IPC.org.ua. Also i have found "Vkontakte" social network groups of anti-maidan tatarians(and there are many members there). Yon wont understand what they say- and you are free not to believe me but here they are. And this is quite fast search- i think something more can be found about this problem.
Again- Mezdlis mostly has anti-russian position and this is not the only organization of crimean tatars.

Russia is indeed moving in and violating the sovereignty of Ukraine without provocation

I is extremely unlikely that Russia will fight there, i think that they just worry about military assets in Sevastopol.
I am REALLY against Putin s imperialism(i am Russian by the way and live in Russia- i really know who is Putin and his supporters) but still- there are many statements by new Kiev officials(they are in Ukraine media) that they wont tolerate "separatism" and will apply force if necessary, and given that there are A LOT of people in Crimea have Russian citizenship one can understand them. And this "sovereignty" stuff........i dont even want to begin talking about how west values it and nobody gives a shit.

By the way- APC of right sector near rada

[IronStar]

Some interesting info(a bit otdated-26 of february)
Gennady Moscal(deputy from Batkivshina) claimed that he found possible plans of Maidan dispersion
his personal site http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=997
Its Ukranian language so you have to believe me here- i ve read these plans- first- main targets of riot forces and special forces are "right sector extremists"; firearms equipment mentioned(snipers too) and mentioned units having them- BUT- their roles only suppression and neutralization of extremists with firearms; no any mention of massive application of firearms- as i mentioned only against armed ones- and frequently mentioned that extremists must be "captured". Also mentioned possible overall number of forces fro this operation- 10000 riot forces fighters including special forces.
And no mention of any particular date or that this operation will be actually carried out- it can effectively be plan prepared "just in case".

And more interesting from the same site http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=1001
Moskal s statement about horrible behaviour of Maidan combat units(which all are almost completely right sector).
There are mentioned beatings, robberies, raping and shooting for no reason. And he mentions that the worst units are 31 and 33 "sotni" of "Maidan defense"- also he mentions that automatic firearms are widespread among them
And from these people the new enforcement is formed.........
And please dont tell me this fuckin "Kremlin propaganda" again, but you are still free not to believe me if you want.

Althought- Yanukovich is in Russia where he was provided smth like political asylim, and there was his press-conference in Rostov- i think that there is no need for details.

[Siege]

In fact, Europe has allowed Central Asia to fall into horrible regimes and has closed its eyes on the suffering of Central Asians in Russia (or the cleansing of Russians and mutual ethnic cleansings of Uzbeks and Tajiks in Central Asia itself).

"Europe" "has allowed" this? When did this happen? And what is the Europe in this sentence? The EEC? The EU? The Benelux? Germany? Scandinavia? Luxembourg? All of the above? None? Using a term like "allow" implies that whoever does the allowing has the means to disallow, or in this case prevent "Central Asia to fall into horrible regimes". Did it really? What was "Europe" supposed to do, deorbit its X-Com squads into Tashkent to assume direct control?

Let's be frank here: the EU is the closest the continent has come to a single-voiced "Europe" since the Roman Empire, and it even today barely has such a thing as a common foreign policy. It was even worse in the past. So to suggest that in the nineties or whenever there even was a "Europe" that "allowed" events tens of thousands of miles away in Central Asia to unfold as if it was in any position to do a single goddamn thing about what was going down is absolutely ludicrous.

[Thanas]

Some interesting info(a bit otdated-26 of february)
Gennady Moscal(deputy from Batkivshina) claimed that he found possible plans of Maidan dispersion
his personal site http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=997
Its Ukranian language so you have to believe me here- i ve read these plans- first- main targets of riot forces and special forces are "right sector extremists"; firearms equipment mentioned(snipers too) and mentioned units having them- BUT- their roles only suppression and neutralization of extremists with firearms; no any mention of massive application of firearms- as i mentioned only against armed ones- and frequently mentioned that extremists must be "captured". Also mentioned possible overall number of forces fro this operation- 10000 riot forces fighters including special forces.
And no mention of any particular date or that this operation will be actually carried out- it can effectively be plan prepared "just in case".

Well, they did shoot guys without firearms (you linked to that video).

And more interesting from the same site http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=1001
Moskal s statement about horrible behaviour of Maidan combat units(which all are almost completely right sector).
There are mentioned beatings, robberies, raping and shooting for no reason. And he mentions that the worst units are 31 and 33 "sotni" of "Maidan defense"- also he mentions that automatic firearms are widespread among them
And from these people the new enforcement is formed.........
And please dont tell me this fuckin "Kremlin propaganda" again, but you are still free not to believe me if you want.

It does not mention numbers or specific instances and as such is worthless.

[Lonestar]

Anyone want to comment on the "pinky promise" we made to Ukraine about defending them if they gave up their nukes? Skimmer?

[K. A. Pital]

Let's be frank here: the EU is the closest the continent has come to a single-voiced "Europe" since the Roman Empire, and it even today barely has such a thing as a common foreign policy. It was even worse in the past. So to suggest that in the nineties or whenever there even was a "Europe" that "allowed" events tens of thousands of miles away in Central Asia to unfold as if it was in any position to do a single goddamn thing about what was going down is absolutely ludicrous.

You're right, Europe couldn't do anything about it. However, it is a bit hypocritical to say that Europe cares about Tatars (a minority that, in the recent times, has been outside of the focus of nationalist extremists or government pressure), when it hardly cares about Tajiks. Tajiks in Russia are not thousands of miles away, they are often as close as Moscow. The problem is, Russia won't be pressured on this because of oil. Pretty much like Saudi Arabia. Routine criticism of human rights there is usually centered around other things, although of course sometimes the EU hits the right spot (Russia should've been criticized a lot more harshly for the moronic and hateful antigay laws, problem is, large parts of Eastern Europe are probably just as homophobic, so the farther from Brussels, the less pronounced is the criticism).

[Flagg]

So is it just me or is Putin going to annex Crimea?

[K. A. Pital]

So is it just me or is Putin going to annex Crimea?

I'm personally of the opinion that the Ossetian scenario will happen. Formally independent but unrecognized by most nations Crimea with Russian roubles as currency. Fighting... unsure. No real capability to fight now, all Crimean power structures and military and special forces are already under rebel control or will be very shortly. Referenda have been moved to March; this would disallow the Rada in Kiev to legitimize itself in May and then try to restore territorial integrity by force.

[Flagg]

Give or take 24 hours and John "There isn't a War I Wouldn't Love to Start" McCain will be on 12 channels saying we're all Ukrainians now.

[K. A. Pital]

Actually, what is happening is eerily similar to 1914. If the East of Ukraine revolts and "separates" en masse, this would mean the end of Ukraine as a state. It would be literally torn apart by two, part will be annexed by Europe, part by Russia. It may spiral out of control.

[Broken]

New York Times push around 9:30 am EST just said "Putin asks Russia's Senate for permission to send troops to Ukraine". Looks like things are about to get even more interesting and not in a good way.

[Dartzap]

New York Times push around 9:30 am EST just said "Putin asks Russia's Senate for permission to send troops to Ukraine". Looks like things are about to get even more interesting and not in a good way.

And according to the BBC breaking new ticker....

Upper House of Russian parliament unanimously approves President Putin's request for troops to be used in Ukraine

[The Romulan Republic]

Actually, what is happening is eerily similar to 1914. If the East of Ukraine revolts and "separates" en masse, this would mean the end of Ukraine as a state. It would be literally torn apart by two, part will be annexed by Europe, part by Russia. It may spiral out of control.

Is the last sentence a euphemism for World War III?

[Cecelia5578]

I think SDN has been traditionally quick to overreact to international events-if anything, it seems more like the Turkish takeover of northern Cyprus, if you want an historical parallel.