Ukraine War Thread

[Welf]

Indeed and with the situation being what it is in retrospect I can't blame the baltics for being weary of Russia. They apparently were very smart to demand loyalty tests by its minorities.

You can always blame people for discrimination against minorities. Also, if this is really a uprising of the Russians in Crimea then the Kremlin is not orchestrating the events but only riding the wave. And if this is only a show by the Kremlin and people don't really want to leave the Ukraine (as your link with the empty plaza implies) the Russian minority is not the problem, but the Kremlin is.

I also think we should stop talking about "Russians" or "Russia" when only the Russian government has their hand in this. I can understand that it's more comfortable to write the short "Russia" than the longer "Russian government" but we can also say "Kremlin" or "Putin". Because if we start to call the normal people the enemy we will lose what is good about the EU, the spirit of tolerance and brotherhood between people.

Crimea has not been poor. It is a net giver in the Ukrainian budget. Why wouldn't they remain a donor for the Russian budget? And please, I know you hate Ossetians, but why shouldn't they get money from Russia? They have suffered from the war and the last thing they need is to cut off the money supply and leave them with nothing. Weren't you all against leaving people in financial ruin, because it makes them more extremist?

But how is the wealth level compared against Russia? Wikipedia tells me Russia has a per capita GDP of 19.000 USD and the Ukrain has one of 7,400 USD. Even if the Crimea has a 50% higher income then the rest it would still be around 60% of the average of Russia. That will make the Crimea a subsidized region in Russia. For that reason I doubt the Kremlin can annex the whole eastern part of Ukraine. Adding 15-20 million people with less then or around half the per capita income will be a massive burden the the budget. Germany did that after the reunification and became the "sick man of Europe" for almost a decade until the Euro helped with a massive export boom.

[IronStar]

apparently the Navy HQ in Sevastopol is resisting the Russians.

It is apparently for you only, nobody else. There is blog in livejournal.com of a guy who actually lives in Sevastopol, witnesses and takes active part in all this movement. Its in russian language(and livejournal.com belongs to russian company) so it is hardly interesting for you, but may be interesting for other people here. He actually witnesses this process- he says that Sevastopol is calm now and there is NO resistance from troops and navy during disarmament.

[Thanas]

This is interesting and shows just how the Kremlin is making this up:

https://twitter.com/crusoes/status/440036175512756224
https://twitter.com/crusoes/status/440040255329415168
https://twitter.com/RyskeldiSatke/statu ... 3723246593

It is apparently for you only, nobody else.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405082
BBC livestream, go to around 12:00 and 13:56. Looks like the HQ is not in Russian hands.


And oh my, what upstanding and fine citizens Russia has sent to the crimea.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ngels.html

[Thanas]

Another point showing that the ukrainian bases are not surrendering or defecting en masse.
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status ... 2570924032
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... 1677ed2b23

[fgalkin]

http://lenta.ru/news/2014/03/02/lugansk/

Lugansk regional council considers the return to the 2004 constitution illegitimate and sets a referendum for the secession of Donbass.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Thanas]

The Ukrainian State Border Service's regional HQ in Simferopol has been stormed and captured by "unidentified armed men", the service says in a statement circulated by UNIAN news agency. The headquarters of the Simferopol border detachment has also been taken.

According to the report, the attack was started by a group of plain-clothed men wearing bullet-proof vests and helmets, who were later joined by members of the Russian military.

[IronStar]

The commander of Ukraine navy Dmitry Berezovsky refused to be subordinate to Kiev and gave the oath to serve Crimea during press-conference at Sevastopol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt9efnLV4UY#t=116 f

[Irbis]

This is slightly off topic, but why did the USSR transfer the crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to Ukraine in 1954? Hind sight is 20-20 of course, but some of this unpleasantness could have been avoided if this didn't happen.

I stated several times - head of USSR was Ukrainian then. And anyway, what was transferred was autonomous socialist republic, not dependent territory. Too bad ex-Soviet states decided to collectively shit on the freedoms ASRs had and simply annexed them (or tried to, which led to several wars).

And oh my, what upstanding and fine citizens Russia has sent to the crimea.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ngels.html

So, bike gang is worthy of contempt... But actual, real neonazis from west Ukraine coming to central and east one isn't. Just as these same guys capturing arms caches wasn't issue, while Crimeans doing it is. Got it.

I condemn both, but I can't help and look with fascination at mental gymnastics required to praise one and condemn the other.

If by deserting en masse you mean "being given the choice of disarming or joining the Russians" then yes.

I like how that wasn't a problem when right wingers did it.

Indeed and with the situation being what it is in retrospect I can't blame the baltics for being weary of Russia. They apparently were very smart to demand loyalty tests by its minorities.

Imagine Germany had a coup and several lands decide to detach at behest of corrupt regional authorities, ignoring things like popular vote or consent of population. Schleswig-Holstein declares everyone uses Danish now, North Rhine mandates use of Dutch-like Low Rhenish, Saarland French, while Bavaria mandates usage of Hochdeutsch Bavarian dialects, promotes Catholicism, and suppresses rights of Protestants and people using standard Deutsch. Every time Germany tries to do anything about rights of German speaking population it is called arrogant aggressor and repressions are temporarily stepped up, while France, Holland and Poland all court new states by giving them money and access to their markets.

How is that different from most of the problem Russia has with Baltics and Ukraine?

I also did not say there is anything wrong with throwing money down the Rain, hey if Russia has too much then they can do what they want with it, but it is a financial drain.

So, it's bad when Russia does it, but OK when USA or EU do it? Mind if I ask why?

I wonder what Greeks think about EU when their country was nearly strangled on austerity altar but now, suddenly finding 20 or 30 billion is non issue.

Do you realize how Putin's actions are the perfect pretext and justification for more of this crap? How could any country trust its Russian minority after what happened in the Crimea?

Except that went on for a lot longer than Putin had been in power. In fact, big part of why Putin rose to power was treatment of Russian minorities in ex USSR. Are you sure you're not mistaking symptoms for a cause?

And for the uptenth time, if the fascists were the one in control they would be in control rather than being the smaller coalition partner.

Just like certain 'weak figure we'll easily control' in Franz von Papen's government?

Even if it were not so, if Russia wants to encourage seperatists in other nations then other nations can do the same in Russia.

Right. And what you'd say if Putin used the same justification to fund Bavarian or Frisian separatism movements? Typical evil Russian plot?

[fgalkin]

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Navy officially throwing his lot in with the separatists and ordering his men in the Crimea to no longer obey orders from Kiev.

http://youtu.be/Zt9efnLV4UY

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Mange]

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Navy officially throwing his lot in with the separatists and ordering his men in the Crimea to no longer obey orders from Kiev.

http://youtu.be/Zt9efnLV4UY

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Yes, but defection by the gun (which seems pretty certain) isn't worth much. He's also been dismissed by the minister of defence. The claim that the Hetman Sahaydachniy has defected has also been denied.

[Thanas]

So, bike gang is worthy of contempt... But actual, real neonazis from west Ukraine coming to central and east one isn't. Just as these same guys capturing arms caches wasn't issue, while Crimeans doing it is. Got it.

I condemn both, but I can't help and look with fascination at mental gymnastics required to praise one and condemn the other.

Show me where I praised the fascist or STFU.

I like how that wasn't a problem when right wingers did it.

I like how you insist the situations are comparable when they are really not, or do you see Polish troops invading Ukraine to enforce demands of right wingers?

Imagine Germany had a coup and several lands decide to detach at behest of corrupt regional authorities, ignoring things like popular vote or consent of population. Schleswig-Holstein declares everyone uses Danish now, North Rhine mandates use of Dutch-like Low Rhenish, Saarland French, while Bavaria mandates usage of Hochdeutsch Bavarian dialects, promotes Catholicism, and suppresses rights of Protestants and people using standard Deutsch. Every time Germany tries to do anything about rights of German speaking population it is called arrogant aggressor and repressions are temporarily stepped up, while France, Holland and Poland all court new states by giving them money and access to their markets.

This scenario is so far out there that it is not even worth contemplating. For one, Low Rhenish cannot even be considered a lingua france anymore.

So, it's bad when Russia does it, but OK when USA or EU do it? Mind if I ask why?

It is not bad when Russia does it, they are allowed to throw their own money away. Do you even read what I wrote, potato head?

I wonder what Greeks think about EU when their country was nearly strangled on austerity altar but now, suddenly finding 20 or 30 billion is non issue.

Oh please, as if the situations are comparable. When did Turkey recently invade Greece?

Except that went on for a lot longer than Putin had been in power. In fact, big part of why Putin rose to power was treatment of Russian minorities in ex USSR. Are you sure you're not mistaking symptoms for a cause?

Doesn't really matter when one state is invading the other, does it?

Just like certain 'weak figure we'll easily control' in Franz von Papen's government?

Because the situations are comparable, right?

Right. And what you'd say if Putin used the same justification to fund Bavarian or Frisian separatism movements? Typical evil Russian plot?

He is more than welcome to fund those few hundred people to his hearts content. Makes up for good comedy and will achieve nothing.

Are there even organized Frisian seperatist movements?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Navy officially throwing his lot in with the separatists and ordering his men in the Crimea to no longer obey orders from Kiev.

http://youtu.be/Zt9efnLV4UY

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Yes, but defection by the gun (which seems pretty certain) isn't worth much. He's also been dismissed by the minister of defence. The claim that the Hetman Sahaydachniy has defected has also been denied.

It was his boss who got dismissed. He had just got his appointment shortly before the televised conference.

[Mange]

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Navy officially throwing his lot in with the separatists and ordering his men in the Crimea to no longer obey orders from Kiev.

http://youtu.be/Zt9efnLV4UY

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Yes, but defection by the gun (which seems pretty certain) isn't worth much. He's also been dismissed by the minister of defence. The claim that the Hetman Sahaydachniy has defected has also been denied.

It was his boss who got dismissed. He had just got his appointment shortly before the televised conference.

I'm pretty certain fgalkin and I referred to Denys Berezovsky, who was appointed Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian navy yesterday and who was dismissed today following his "defection" (in a lack for a better word). According to the prosecutor-general, he's being investigated for high treason.

[Thanas]

So can anybody tell me how a ship in Crete is supposed to have defected?

The Ukrainian navy's flagship, the Hetman Sahaydachny, remains loyal to Ukraine and is "proudly flying the Ukrainian flag", Rear-Adm Andriy Tarasov says in a statement published on the Defence Ministry's website. The Hetman Sahaydachny frigate is currently docked at a naval base on Crete, Greece, on the way back to Ukraine from an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, the statement says.

[Elheru Aran]

*Scratches head*

OK, this is all moving very quickly.

Let me see if I understand the situation. Let's step back from all the bitching about who's doing what and hammer down a few details for those who are just now starting to catch up. I don't really trust Wikipedia as anybody could edit that shit in five minutes and I don't want to troll through a million articles on news sites because nobody has the attention span to actually write a cogent summary of the ongoing situation... so:

--Protestors wanted Ukraine to join the EU, help its economy or something, and get President Yank out of office. Things turned ugly after troops were sent in.

--Sections of Ukraine started taking sides. There's a Fascist type party who are virulently anti-Communist, the Communists, and various formerly self-governing regions such as Belorussia and Crimea who are starting to make a play for independence?

-- Now we have a situation where Russia is basically engaging in a blatant land grab? Or is it more of a "peacekeeping" exercise?

How's that?

[Thanas]

Almost everything is disputed, but here is what happened:

1. The EU offered the Ukraine an association agreement which would steer the country towards the EU. The populace was for it, overwhelmingly.
2. Putin then bribed a lot of people and put economic pressure on the Ukraine, causing the President to reverse course.
3. The western part of the country revolted against that. Protests in Kiev started forming including a whole group of factions including Jews, Fascists, western and eastern factions. Reason for the revolt was both the agreement as well as the new constitution reforms.
4. Protests got violent. Depending on who you believe either the protestors or the police are to blame for that.
5. The EU brokered a peace agreement.
6. Protestors broke it. Then many members of parliament switched sides.
7. Parliament voted to depose Janukovitch who fled to Russia.
8. Parliament repeals a law making Russia the second official language.
9. Russians in the crimea fear retaliation against them.
10. Putin intervenes and grabs at least part of the crimea.

[Elheru Aran]

OK. So, to over-simplify, internal political pressures are leading to a change of government and policy in the Ukraine and meanwhile the Russians are sensing opportunity one way or another?

[fgalkin]

OK. So, to over-simplify, internal political pressures are leading to a change of government and policy in the Ukraine and meanwhile the Russians are sensing opportunity one way or another?

Yes and no. The country is going the way of Yugoslavia. Russia is trying to make sure that its interests are protected. Note how it only landed in the Crimea and nowhere else, and how they haven't (yet) fired a single shot.

Of course, now that Putin sees an opportunity, he may not want to stop there.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[fgalkin]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStor ... a-22740153

The German government said Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday accepted a proposal by Chancellor Angela Merkel to set up a "contact group" aimed at facilitating dialogue in the Ukraine crisis.

Merkel raised the idea in a phone conversation in which she accused Putin of breaking international law with the "unacceptable Russian intervention in Crimea." German government spokesman Georg Streiter said in a statement that Putin also accepted the idea of setting up a fact-finding mission.

A Kremlin statement said Putin defended Russia's action against "ultranationalist forces" in Ukraine and insisted measures taken so far were "fully adequate." It said Putin directed Merkel's attention to the "unrelenting threat of violence" to Russian citizens and the Russian-speaking population.

It didn't refer specifically to Merkel's proposal but mentioned a need to continue "consultations in both a bilateral ... and multilateral format with the aim of cooperating to normalize the socio-political station in Ukraine."

Earlier Sunday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe could be asked to put together a fact-finding mission to determine what is really happening in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

He added that an international "contact group" — involving European countries and perhaps the United Nations along with Russia and Ukraine — could be part of the solution. Streiter said the group could be led by the OSCE — a body that includes 57 countries, among them European Union nations, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

"In the end, the result must be that Russian soldiers return to their barracks," Steinmeier told ARD television.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers will meet to discuss the crisis.

Steinmeier stressed dialogue rather than possible action against Russia, and said there are differences among leaders of the Group of Eight industrial nations over Moscow's future in the club.

"Some say we must now send a strong signal and exclude Russia," he added. "Others say — I am more with them — that the G-8 format is actually the only format in which we from the West still speak immediately with Russia, and should we really sacrifice this one format?"

"I think we have to see that we contribute to de-escalation in Ukraine," Steinmeier said.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[IronStar]

Almost everything is disputed, but here is what happened:

1. The EU offered the Ukraine an association agreement which would steer the country towards the EU. The populace was for it, overwhelmingly.
2. Putin then bribed a lot of people and put economic pressure on the Ukraine, causing the President to reverse course.
3. The western part of the country revolted against that. Protests in Kiev started forming including a whole group of factions including Jews, Fascists, western and eastern factions. Reason for the revolt was both the agreement as well as the new constitution reforms.
4. Protests got violent. Depending on who you believe either the protestors or the police are to blame for that.
5. The EU brokered a peace agreement.
6. Protestors broke it. Then many members of parliament switched sides.
7. Parliament voted to depose Janukovitch who fled to Russia.
8. Parliament repeals a law making Russia the second official language.
9. Russians in the crimea fear retaliation against them.
10. Putin intervenes and grabs at least part of the crimea.

Well, this is mostly right, but there are some more details.
1. As we see now - not all people in Ukraine want to EU, mostly western part.
2. I really dont know about bribing, but there was some economic pressure- in 2013 Russia increased tariffs for some goods that Ukraine exported to Russia. But i really dont think it to be the main reason of the Yanukovich decision to postpone EU association. Association would have definitely worsened economic situation in Ukraine(and there is not only it- there were also terms of IMF loans) and the elections were relatively soon(beginning of 2015)- so you see where this was going.
Yanukovich team made some calculations and stated, that Ukraine required at least 160 billion dollars to soften consequences of association. EU refused of course, so Yanukovich postponed the process hoping to negotiate for fin help. As a reaction- Maidan has began.
And about Russia being worry about EU- this is not only because of decrease of influence but also cause association means expansion of EU goods not only in Ukraine, but in Russia too. And terms of association also mean utter collapse of Ukaine industry and Russia doesnt need it cause of import of some important goods from Ukraine(Russia was about 30% of Ukraine exports).
3. Right. But the role of fascists was far more important- check my previous posts. Right sector is very well organized group, equipped and prepared far better than average maidan protester. Their had crucial role in fighting the riot forces(to the point that right sector squads were perfoming succesfull diversions behind riot forces lines) and capturing government buildings.
4.Actually, in december riot forces attacked protesters first- but it could be provocation(many DFA ministry officials were fired after this and there was no logical reason for Yanukovich to order it, really)
And also there was idiotic move of Yanukovich draconian anti-demonstration legislation which cause more hate.
7. Well, actually Yanukovich gone to Harkov to attend the conference of south-east officials, and during his visit rada decided to remove him from presidency.And then there was arrest warrant issued. His last footage before Rostov press conference was from Harkov.
Other is pretty much right.

[Vympel]

This bullshit in Crimea is a direct result of Khruschev's idiocy in 1954. If the Crimea wants independence / to become part of Russia, then let them.

[Thanas]

OK. So, to over-simplify, internal political pressures are leading to a change of government and policy in the Ukraine and meanwhile the Russians are sensing opportunity one way or another?

Yes and no. The country is going the way of Yugoslavia. Russia is trying to make sure that its interests are protected.

That is a nice euphemism what everybody else would characterize as a land grab if the USA would be acting.

Well, this is mostly right, but there are some more details.

Like I said, everything is disputed. Glad our official Kremlin propagandist is here to do his part.

1. As we see now - not all people in Ukraine want to EU, mostly western part.

Which is why I said the populace was for it, overwhelmingly. Not totally, but the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens was for it.

2. I really dont know about bribing, but there was some economic pressure- in 2013 Russia increased tariffs for some goods that Ukraine exported to Russia. But i really dont think it to be the main reason of the Yanukovich decision to postpone EU association. Association would have definitely worsened economic situation in Ukraine(and there is not only it- there were also terms of IMF loans) and the elections were relatively soon(beginning of 2015)- so you see where this was going.

I don't. Yanukovich signed the agreement. Then Putin complained. Then he broke it. This points to Putin, not some concerns sudddenly coming in. The agreement was considered to be fine until Putin complained about it.

Yanukovich team made some calculations and stated, that Ukraine required at least 160 billion dollars to soften consequences of association. EU refused of course, so Yanukovich postponed the process hoping to negotiate for fin help. As a reaction- Maidan has began.

That is a convenient excuse after the fact. You tell me that Yanukovich never thought about it before declaring his intent to sign? Pull the other one, nobody believes he is that stupid (and if he is what does that say about his voters?).

And about Russia being worry about EU- this is not only because of decrease of influence but also cause association means expansion of EU goods not only in Ukraine, but in Russia too. And terms of association also mean utter collapse of Ukaine industry and Russia doesnt need it cause of import of some important goods from Ukraine(Russia was about 30% of Ukraine exports).

How does expansion of EU goods into Ukraine means expansion in Russia as well?

3. Right. But the role of fascists was far more important- check my previous posts. Right sector is very well organized group, equipped and prepared far better than average maidan protester. Their had crucial role in fighting the riot forces(to the point that right sector squads were perfoming succesfull diversions behind riot forces lines) and capturing government buildings.

The people are not majority fascist nor is the parliament, despite the very public Kremlin attempt to call them such.

4.Actually, in december riot forces attacked protesters first- but it could be provocation(many DFA ministry officials were fired after this and there was no logical reason for Yanukovich to order it, really)
And also there was idiotic move of Yanukovich draconian anti-demonstration legislation which cause more hate.

Agreed.

7. Well, actually Yanukovich gone to Harkov to attend the conference of south-east officials, and during his visit rada decided to remove him from presidency.And then there was arrest warrant issued. His last footage before Rostov press conference was from Harkov.

That is inconsistent with the picture reported by all media but very consistent with the Kremlin picture which does not need its puppet be known as a coward.

**************

BTW, what do you think of Russia invading another country without provocation?

[Thanas]

This bullshit in Crimea is a direct result of Khruschev's idiocy in 1954. If the Crimea wants independence / to become part of Russia, then let them.

If idiocy in redrawing borders were a valid reason for attempting a landgrab.....if they want to go then they should be able to vote for it in a free referendum. But such referendum cannot be anything more than a sham if it happens under Russian guns.

[Vympel]

If idiocy in redrawing borders were a valid reason for attempting a landgrab.....if they want to go then they should be able to vote for it in a free referendum. But such referendum cannot be anything more than a sham if it happens under Russian guns.

Given the demographics of Crimea, the outcome is a foregone conclusion. There's no chance that they would vote to stay in Ukraine - remember they voted for independence before. Twice, I believe.

[Thanas]

Is it the likely outcome? Sure. But it won't be a legitimate one unless the issue of free voting and Tatars can be dealt with.