Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

Is it the likely outcome? Sure. But it won't be a legitimate one unless the issue of free voting and Tatars can be dealt with.

Tatars can vote against, but they just don't have the numbers to change the outcome. Besides, I already said this: Northern Ireland. Let's not forget that it was ethnically cleansed to make way for being a loyal part of the Empire. It is absolutely irrelevant that this happened hundreds of years ago, since 100 and even some 60 years ago Crimea was firmly a part of Russia.

[IronStar]

Then Putin complained. Then he broke it.

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/en/148/547775/ i dont deny possible Putin s pressure, i just think it was not THAT important

How does expansion of EU goods into Ukraine means expansion in Russia as well?

Ukraine can become something akin to transit zone for EU goods.

That is inconsistent with the picture reported by all media but very consistent with the Kremlin picture which does not need its puppet be known as a coward.

What media? There is info by Ukraine LB.ua http://lb.ua/news/2014/02/21/256575_yan ... arkov.html
of 21 february that Yanukovich went to Kharkov, then there is this(i used different news site cause it was faster to find) http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/yanukovich-pr ... 50642.html
other Ukraine news site- Yanukovich being in Kharkov confirmed.
There- 112.ua http://112.ua/politika/zayavleniya-yanu ... 25130.html
Interview of Yanukovich to Kharkov channel- there is 15:50 p.m.(his last footage before Rostov conference) and there is the fragment of live footage from rada at a moment of "impeachment"- it is 17:11 p.m.
And there is info from his counsellor about his opinion on the rada decision - http://112.ua/glavnye-novosti/yanukovic ... 25204.html
She says that "his half of day working tour cant be the ground for this decision"
I remember filtering news flow at that day- when Yanukovich left Kiev most Ukraine (and not only) mass media were shouting "Yanukovich ran away" and then his presence in Kharkov confirmed. After his "last" vid from Kharkov and last info from his counsellor there was no info AT all until Rostov conference, but news were blistering with sensations about his location.

Glad our official Kremlin propagandist

I consider this to be trolling.
But if this is not........
This became personal. You dont know me AT ALL and you make this assumptions......you have no fuckin idea at all about my views. I live in Russia, i see what happens, i fuckin know who is Putin and his oligarchy- you are bloody first person in my life to call me FUCKIN KREMLIN PROPAGANDIST. I ve never thought one is going to call me one....
You know, while writing my posts i ve used source from russian mass media only ONCE- almost every my source is from Ukraine news- or do you think that bloody Putin personally inflitrated (hacked or whatewer the hell is suitable for you) LB.ua, 112.ua, ukpravda.ua, unn.com.ua, segodnia.ua and placed there all info i posted? WHERE THE HELL DO YOU SEE KREMLIN PROP THERE?
The fact that you are ignorant doesnt entitle you to call everybody and everything not in conformity with you views whatever the bloody fuck you want.

[fgalkin]

That is a nice euphemism what everybody else would characterize as a land grab if the USA would be acting.

You mean like Grenada? Or Panama? Or Bay of Pigs?

Last I checked, no one hit the US with sanctions or expelled them from the G8 for that. Because Freedom.

Like I said, everything is disputed. Glad our official Kremlin propagandist is here to do his part.

As opposed to our official EU troll? Seriously, Thanas, that is completely uncalled for.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Vympel]

This is awesome:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... el-russian

Hague denied that western condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was weakened by the allied invasion of Iraq in 2003, saying Ukraine had never represented a threat to Russia or any other nation.

We're back to pretending Iraq was a "threat", people.

[Kane Starkiller]

If US is hypocritical for condemning Russia even though it had its share of invasions does that make anyone defending Russia here a hypocrite aswell? All in all Ukraine has yet to use chemical weapons on its own population.

[K. A. Pital]

Last I heard, Russian soldiers aren't taking Kiev and creating a Green Zone there while half a million Ukranians die in civil violence. Should Russia wait until Ukraine firebombs Crimea? Because it damn well can: the West said Putin shouldn't move forces into Ukraine. I think it's clear that rebel forces are Russia-aligned, but if anyone's even present there, it's a bunch of military advisors. Is it unfair to send military advisors to a civil war? If yes, then why American military advisors were present in Georgia?

[Vympel]

If US is hypocritical for condemning Russia even though it had its share of invasions does that make anyone defending Russia here a hypocrite aswell? All in all Ukraine has yet to use chemical weapons on its own population.

Like Stas said, huge numbers of Iraqis died in civil violence. I don't see why anyone should give the US credit for deposing Saddam because of something they actively aided and abetted when it happened back in the 1980s - i.e. the use of chemical weapons on Iraq's own people.

As to the issue at hand, IMO there's clear historical, legal and popular reasons why Crimea wants to seperate itself from Ukraine. I see no reason why the Russians shouldn't aid the effort. It was part of Russia from 1783 to 1954, Khruschev's "gift" of it to Ukraine was of dubious legality at best (and so long as the USSR remained in existence, a move of no importance), and the population overwhelmingly never wanted to be part of Ukraine in the first place and has agitated for seperation more than once. That's a trifecta. More justified than say ... Kosovo? You betcha.

The irony of all this indignation about Crimea is that apparently the borders of a country set by the arbitrary act of a communist dictator 60 years ago are apparently now considered sacrosant by the West

At the end of the day, the western world has absolutely no moral or legal authority in these sorts of matters. That would be if where Ukraine goes is any of their damn business in the first place - which it isn't.

[K. A. Pital]

It's pretty much the same as with Chechnya that was incorporated in the RSFSR, except in this case for some reason the West didn't think borders of Russia were sancrosant. But borders of Ukraine and Georgia are.

Well, or they aren't. I'm fairly confident the West will huff and puff (like with Georgia), then it will introduce token sanctions for half a month that would barely impact the oil trade. Then even those will be removed and everyone will forget about it.

Maybe they'll make a propaganda film afterwards, where some new Saakashvili (Turchinov?) eats his tie while Mordor hordes attack.

[Edi]

I don't give a rat's ass about who gets Crimea, but the Russian part of Crimean population is doing itself no favors with its organized campaigns of violence against anyone who does not jump for joy at the prospect of joining Russia.

Allowing Russia to also casually violate the sovereignty of another state without protest is not a good precedent to set. There is already ample precedent of Russia doing that or otherwise interfering on completely trumped up charges of mistreatment of Russian minorities (Estonia and the other Baltic countries, statements of similar conduct aimed at Finland and then the Georgian affair and others) while at the same time stomping down the jackboot on minorities at home.

Doesn't mean the US has any standing to speak really, given their own bullshit, but such is the glorious world of Realpolitik.

[K. A. Pital]

It seems by now all of Ukraine's East is aflame, many city governments are literally overthrown. Not sure Ukraine could even contain this situation, as it seems that disbanding the riot police has caused a chain of defections and deserting units aren't going to be loyal to Kiev any time soon.

To be frank, if Russia and Europe don't completely go nuts over this, Ukraine may soon see joint "peacemaker" patrols, kind of like in former Yugoslavia, done by forces of the EU/NATO and Russia. How long can Kiev survive with half the police disloyal and no money to pay to anyone?

[Kane Starkiller]

Last I heard, Russian soldiers aren't taking Kiev and creating a Green Zone there while half a million Ukranians die in civil violence. Should Russia wait until Ukraine firebombs Crimea? Because it damn well can: the West said Putin shouldn't move forces into Ukraine. I think it's clear that rebel forces are Russia-aligned, but if anyone's even present there, it's a bunch of military advisors. Is it unfair to send military advisors to a civil war? If yes, then why American military advisors were present in Georgia?

This evades the question: did US have any right to invade Iraq because of what might be in the first place? If not then why does Russia have the right today? Preemptive strike because Crimea might be firebombed? Out of all regions Crimeas Russian population was already pretty much safest because of limited overland access routes, large majority and presence of Russian military. It was chosen because it was a low hanging fruit not because Russian population there was particularly threatened. All is not said in Ukraine, there are large parts of country with no overwhelming ethnic majority and if things escalate and turn into civil war the death toll and displacement could theoretically reach Iraqi levels. This doesn't really have bearing on whether invasion itself is justified currently.

As to the issue at hand, IMO there's clear historical, legal and popular reasons why Crimea wants to seperate itself from Ukraine. I see no reason why the Russians shouldn't aid the effort. It was part of Russia from 1783 to 1954, Khruschev's "gift" of it to Ukraine was of dubious legality at best (and so long as the USSR remained in existence, a move of no importance), and the population overwhelmingly never wanted to be part of Ukraine in the first place and has agitated for seperation more than once. That's a trifecta. More justified than say ... Kosovo? You betcha.

The irony of all this indignation about Crimea is that apparently the borders of a country set by the arbitrary act of a communist dictator 60 years ago are apparently now considered sacrosant by the West

At the end of the day, the western world has absolutely no moral or legal authority in these sorts of matters. That would be if where Ukraine goes is any of their damn business in the first place - which it isn't.

Getting something as a "gift" 50 years ago in your mind makes the land more or less legitimately Ukrainian than if they conquered it in blood? Legally there is no question: Crimea is no less legally Ukrainian than Kaliningrad is Russian. In no way is invasion of Crimea more justified than invasion of Kosovo where ethnic cleansing was already well underway by the time NATO got involved. (Which is not to say that Albanian extremists didn't have hand in escalating the violence).
Obviously where Ukraine goes should be of no ones business but of Ukraine, regardless of whether every Ukrainian subdivision agrees.
Ultimately, at this point, I agree that the best thing is to organize a referendum in Crimea and let it choose its own path since there is little chance that the population will accept going back under Ukrainian control.

It's pretty much the same as with Chechnya that was incorporated in the RSFSR, except in this case for some reason the West didn't think borders of Russia were sancrosant. But borders of Ukraine and Georgia are.

That the politicians are often hypocrites goes without saying. But are you saying that leveling Chechnya to the ground is equivalent to hanging Bandera posters and revoking official status of Russian language?

[Mange]

I just heard on the local news that according to an unconfirmed report from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry relayed by Interfax, the Russian forces on the Crimea has given the Ukrainian forces on the peninsula until 5:00 AM local time tomorrow to surrender or their bases will be attacked.

[K. A. Pital]

All is not said in Ukraine, there are large parts of country with no overwhelming ethnic majority and if things escalate and turn into civil war the death toll and displacement could theoretically reach Iraqi levels. This doesn't really have bearing on whether invasion itself is justified currently.

If there was an invasion, war would be declared. Is there an invasion? Or are there military advisors at most, helping Russian rebels?

Ultimately, at this point, I agree that the best thing is to organize a referendum in Crimea and let it choose its own path since there is little chance that the population will accept going back under Ukrainian control.

It seems that this is the way it goes. Referendum is scheduled for March 30th, quite soon. If you saw the photos, the population doesn't seem to be hellishly afraid of the "Russian invasion" and considers the armed rebels and rebel former Ukraine military/riot police forces to be "friendly units".

That the politicians are often hypocrites goes without saying. But are you saying that leveling Chechnya to the ground is equivalent to hanging Bandera posters and revoking official status of Russian language?

Nah; but Abkhazia and South Ossetia were shelled and ethnically cleansed (or attempted to be cleansed) during the first civil war in Georgia, the second one seemed to be a belated attempt to do the same. It seems that this hasn't precluded the West from saying blah blah blah about Georgian territorial integrity.

[Civil War Man]

All is not said in Ukraine, there are large parts of country with no overwhelming ethnic majority and if things escalate and turn into civil war the death toll and displacement could theoretically reach Iraqi levels. This doesn't really have bearing on whether invasion itself is justified currently.

If there was an invasion, war would be declared. Is there an invasion? Or are there military advisors at most, helping Russian rebels?

I'm not going to get into the rest of the stuff since I'm not well-versed enough in the situation in Ukraine, but "military advisers" is a pretty common euphemism used when politicians want to commit troops to a situation while telling their constituents that they aren't at war. The US used that term back in Vietnam, and are currently using it to describe the troops that are still stationed in Iraq.

[Thanas]

All is not said in Ukraine, there are large parts of country with no overwhelming ethnic majority and if things escalate and turn into civil war the death toll and displacement could theoretically reach Iraqi levels. This doesn't really have bearing on whether invasion itself is justified currently.

If there was an invasion, war would be declared. Is there an invasion? Or are there military advisors at most, helping Russian rebels?

Military units being stationed there without the consent of the Government is still an invasion.

[Flagg]

Of course all the rethugs are either masturbating over how powerful Putin is, or saying this is all because Obama is weak. Well short of launching nukes I'd like to know what the fuck the US can do to stop Russia from doing whatever they want with Ukraine.

[Borgholio]

Of course all the rethugs are either masturbating over how powerful Putin is, or saying this is all because Obama is weak. Well short of launching nukes I'd like to know what the fuck the US can do to stop Russia from doing whatever they want with Ukraine.

Or NATO for that matter.

[Thanas]

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/en/148/547775/ i dont deny possible Putin s pressure, i just think it was not THAT important

If the Ukraine was going to sign it until Putin complained then you can bet your ass it was the deciding factor.

Ukraine can become something akin to transit zone for EU goods.

How? That is a very weak argument. And even if so that hardly justifies invasion.

What media?

You know the same media which reported that he could not be found? That he dismissed his bodyguards and ran away in an unmarked car?

But if this is not........
This became personal. You dont know me AT ALL and you make this assumptions......you have no fuckin idea at all about my views. I live in Russia, i see what happens, i fuckin know who is Putin and his oligarchy- you are bloody first person in my life to call me FUCKIN KREMLIN PROPAGANDIST. I ve never thought one is going to call me one....
You know, while writing my posts i ve used source from russian mass media only ONCE- almost every my source is from Ukraine news- or do you think that bloody Putin personally inflitrated (hacked or whatewer the hell is suitable for you) LB.ua, 112.ua, ukpravda.ua, unn.com.ua, segodnia.ua and placed there all info i posted? WHERE THE HELL DO YOU SEE KREMLIN PROP THERE?
The fact that you are ignorant doesnt entitle you to call everybody and everything not in conformity with you views whatever the bloody fuck you want.

My apologies, I should instead have said "guy who defends only Putin without ever acknowledging he might be at fault here, guy who repeats Russia's propaganda word for word and guy who is of the opinion Russia can just invade other countries whenever they want to despite no provocation whatsoever."

[Thanas]

A few more developments:

International:

Russian stock markets have gone down by 11%. Russia's central bank also raised its main interest rate to 7% from 5.5%. The rouble plunged to historic new lows.

German chancellor Angela Merkel told US president Barack Obama that she thought Russian president Vladimir Putin may be “in another world.”

US President Barack Obama says Russia has violated international law in Ukraine. Russia is on the "wrong side of history", he said, adding that the US would look at a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions that would isolate Moscow.

Extraordinary summit of EU Presidents & Prime Ministers called for Thursday to help de-escalate situation. Chris Morris BBC News says there is strong language in the EU statement - Russia has violated the UN charter and its troops should withdraw to their bases in Crimea without delay. If that doesn't happen by Thursday, when EU leaders will meet in Brussels for an emergency summit, then talk will turn to possible sanctions, some of them diplomatic, some potentially economic.

Ex-Liberal Democrat leader and special forces veteran Lord Paddy Ashdown has told the BBC Russia may win control of Crimea, but the consequences will be severe: "This is a very stupid move on the part of the Russians. They will win in the short term in Crimea - let's hope they don't try and expand this into eastern Ukraine - but in the long term, if the West acts together and if it uses diplomacy, but muscular diplomacy, and uses the financial and diplomatic instruments at its leverage, there will be a heavy price to pay for what Russia has done."

Ukraine:

Wives of Ukrainian soldiers have been prevented from taking food to their husbands at a Crimean military base, according to France 24’s Douglas Herbert.

Pro-Russian troops have taken over a ferry terminal on the easternmost tip of Crimea, which serves as a common departure point for many Russian-bound ships.[...]Early on Monday, soldiers were operating the terminal. The men refused to identify themselves, but they spoke Russian and the vehicles transporting them had Russian license plates.

The Guardian’s Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) writes that while reports of a blanket ultimatum applying to the Ukrainian military posture as a whole should be taken with a generous grain of salt, it should “also be remembered that there have been ultimatums at all bases, including the one I was inside at Feodosia yesterday. They were ignored, and nothing happened.”

"On 2 bases today, [saw] Russian troops asking Ukrainians not to defect to Crimean authorities but to join *Russian* troops. Huge distinction. To clarify that last tweet, they are being asked to join Crimean forces or "Crimean people" too, but first demand is for defection to Russia"

Kyiv Post editor Christopher Miller reports personally hearing an ultimatum delivered from a Russian ship to a Ukrainian force near what appears to be Slavutych recreation camp in Alushta, Crimea.

A crowd of an estimated 3,000 pro-Russian demonstrators rallied outside a government building in the port city of Odessa. Led by head of “People’s alternative” Anton Davydchenko, the crowd chanted “Referendum!” They broke into a session of local parliament, smashed windows and injured a prosecution worker, according to a local report. The demonstrators hung a Russian flag and an Odessa city flag atop the building.

Dozens of mostly young people from the far-right Pravy Sector came later in the day, demanding the demonstrators leave the building and remove the Russian flag. Hundreds of pro-Kiev activists later joined them. The police separated the two rival groups. Odessa governor Mykola Syrotiok held negotiations with representatives of both sides behind closed doors, Dumskaya.net reported.

Some 6,000 extra Russian troops and 30 additional armoured vehicles are now in Crimea, the Ukrainian Defence Minister said on Saturday.

Sources:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... rimea-live
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

[Thanas]

Also, the pictures shown are very conclusive, showing how heavily armed the pro-russian forces are. Maidan is nothing in comparison.

The police is also breaking up fascist and and russian violence showing once more that the state is not fascist-dominated.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Well short of launching nukes I'd like to know what the fuck the US can do to stop Russia from doing whatever they want with Ukraine.

Serious question:

Do you think on a broad level the US actually cares? I mean, they are going to condemn the invasion, because that's just the kind of thing politicians always do. And at some level, the US is always a little queasy about anything that seems like a projection or increase of Russian power. But on a broad, long-term strategic level, what would direct Russian control over the Crimea actually change? The Russians already had access to Sevastopol and immense say over whatever was happening in the Ukraine to begin with.

[Metahive]

All this handwringing about the o-so awful ukrainian rightwingers feels hollow when Putin's invasion is defended in the same breath, especially when one considers that this act will strengthen the radical right in the Ukraine. What better way to whip up nationalist and xenophobic fervor than a foreign invasion by the former imperial overlord who used to refer to Ukrainians as "Minor Russians"?

Sorry, but I'm opposed to imperialist bullies, be it the US or Russia so I condemn it.

[Flagg]

Well short of launching nukes I'd like to know what the fuck the US can do to stop Russia from doing whatever they want with Ukraine.

Serious question:

Do you think on a broad level the US actually cares? I mean, they are going to condemn the invasion, because that's just the kind of thing politicians always do. And at some level, the US is always a little queasy about anything that seems like a projection or increase of Russian power. But on a broad, long-term strategic level, what would direct Russian control over the Crimea actually change? The Russians already had access to Sevastopol and immense say over whatever was happening in the Ukraine to begin with.

Of course we don't care. Like I said earlier in the thread the Russians taking Crimea will be met with the same reaction as the US taking Baja. The only difference is the Russians have a valid land claim.

[Vympel]

Getting something as a "gift" 50 years ago in your mind makes the land more or less legitimately Ukrainian than if they conquered it in blood? Legally there is no question: Crimea is no less legally Ukrainian than Kaliningrad is Russian. In no way is invasion of Crimea more justified than invasion of Kosovo where ethnic cleansing was already well underway by the time NATO got involved. (Which is not to say that Albanian extremists didn't have hand in escalating the violence).

Well accusations of "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo were largely propaganda. The US and NATO told some outrageous lies about the Serbs throughout that conflict, all of which were proven to be false when they actually got in there and the hundreds of thousands of bodies in mass graves they insisted they would find turned out to not exist. It was the same thing as the "babies thrown out of incubators" thing in Iraq/Kuwait back in 1991, and WMD in 2003. Its a very, very old playbook. Kosovo was a civil war. Civil wars create refugees, persecution and war crimes. That's really as far as it went. There was no legal justification to just slice off a piece of Serbia, yet they did it anyway.

They're still reaping what they sowed in that regard. They really handed Russia an all-purpose propaganda "oh yeah? What about this" tool when they did that. And for what?

Ultimately, at this point, I agree that the best thing is to organize a referendum in Crimea and let it choose its own path since there is little chance that the population will accept going back under Ukrainian control.

Agreed. I would love to know what the Russian end game is for this. I don't know if seperation / annexation of Crimea is their objective, or if they're just sending a massive signal to Ukraine that they will not be fucked with and it can all go away if they do what the Russians say.

[mr friendly guy]

I just heard on the local news that according to an unconfirmed report from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry relayed by Interfax, the Russian forces on the Crimea has given the Ukrainian forces on the peninsula until 5:00 AM local time tomorrow to surrender or their bases will be attacked.

Russia has denied it, although the person who denied it appeared to be a low level spokesman.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-04/u ... ea/5296372

The claim was later dismissed by an unnamed representative at the fleet's headquarters who said no assault was planned, adding that the reports were "complete nonsense".