Ukraine War Thread

[Ahriman238]

Relevant again after a hundred and fifty years or so. Well, the names and some locations change.

[K. A. Pital]

I just wonder, do people even realize that Ukraine is bankrupt and has wages lower that China? It is one of the truly failed states in the post-Soviet space. Russia is for all faults not a failed state. People seem to forget that Austria was not a victim of Germany. It was a critical racist component of the Third Reich and rejoined willingly, supporting nationalists until... Well, they never stopped, actually. If people make these parallels, they should remember some people can really wish to go to the bad guys.

[mr friendly guy]

I am not a fan of territory trading hands like this unless one state willingly sells land to another. However I can appreciate irony. So when can we expect Russia to remind the US and Europe about Kosovo in direct diplomatic conversation?

[Edi]

I am not a fan of territory trading hands like this unless one state willingly sells land to another. However I can appreciate irony. So when can we expect Russia to remind the US and Europe about Kosovo in direct diplomatic conversation?

They already have.

[K. A. Pital]

To be frank, Ukraine could have sold Crimea for a fixed price, but this would mean self-destruction for the new elite. So they did not. Can't blame them, they're completely powerless to stop what is happening now.

Russia is wrong to bring up Kosovo, because Kosovo wasn't directly annexed by Albania. Heh, the results of nation-building in Serbia proper are only marginally better than in Albania (though perhaps more than in Kosovo).

Two closer examples, Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain nominally independent, but for all intents and purposes integrated with Russia. The Transdniester Republic is landlocked, but also supported by Russia.

If one counts all the separatist enclaves Russia supports, that would be way more than Kosovo. Good or bad? Not sure. I'm all for independent X, unless it ends up in something like PMR or Kosovo - rampant poverty and the economy is heavily influenced by crime and human trafficking.

[Siege]

When a referendum only allows a choice between "more autonomy" and "join Russia" with no option for maintaining the status quo then it's a farce no matter how the vote turns out. The fact that apparently the citizens of Crimea couldn't be trusted with that third choice combined with the armed gunmen on the streets and the extremely high pro-Russian result doesn't fill me with an abundance of faith in the bona fide nature of the vote.

That's pretty much immaterial though because Putin has manoeuvered himself into a position where he can't back away from absorbing Crimea even if he did have second thoughts. So there'll be posturing and talk about how terribly illegal this referendum was, and plenty of outrage in Kiev no doubt, and it'll all amount to nothing because nobody is going to actually do anything beyond token sanctions, suspended talks or asset freezes.

So, when all is said and done, hopefully being part of Russia works out for Crimea and it won't end up like some of the other black holes of post-Soviet disputed territorial misery. Frankly though what's more immediately interesting is how the Ukrainian government reacts, and if the moderates can keep the right-wing anti-Russian reactionaries from flying off the chain. It seems to me they have a choice between taking their loss with some grace, or giving Putin all the justification he needs to keep chipping away at their country.

[K. A. Pital]

When a referendum only allows a choice between "more autonomy" and "join Russia" with no option for maintaining the status quo then it's a farce no matter how the vote turns out.

Abstaining and not voting would kill it then. Referenda aren't automatically binding unless there's enough people voting.

The fact that apparently the citizens of Crimea couldn't be trusted with that third choice combined with the armed gunmen on the streets and the extremely high pro-Russian result doesn't fill me with an abundance of faith in the bona fide nature of the vote.

Me neither. Russian elections aren't elections, perhaps they're worse than Iranian ones. However, it is true that in times of intense propaganda war landslide votes are possible.

That's pretty much immaterial though because Putin has manoeuvered himself into a position where he can't back away from absorbing Crimea even if he did have second thoughts.

Oh no he can't. If he does it, Russians at home would start asking: "How come now? Giving our brothers who voted to be with us to the banderovites?!"

It seems to me they have a choice between taking their loss with some grace, or giving Putin all the justification he needs to keep chipping away at their country.

Well, attacking Crimea right now with some right-wing paramilitaries hastily formed in the West of Ukraine would be Putin's dream. It would mean that his propaganda was right. It would also solidify the pro-Russian sentiment even further, possibly leading to civil war and Ukraine's total destruction.

[Col. Crackpot]

A 97% vote in favor of anything reaches almost North Korean levels of bullshit

[Borgholio]

EU and US have imposed sanctions on Russia.

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/201 ... oin-russia

Hang on a minute. The sanctions are just travel bans and asset freezes of a couple of people? Some of whom are actually Ukrainians who are pro Russian. Wow, this will really hurt Putin.

The EU and the US need to step up their game if they "really" want to make things difficult for Russia rather than to look like they are doing something about Putin after the latter just sent a big fuck you to their faces like in 2008. I suggest oil and gas to make things interesting. * Can Europe live well without Russian energy? Can Russia find a new buyer on reasonably short notice, cough China cough.


* that was tongue in cheek.

[Tribble]

Do you think that Putin is going to stop with just Crimea, or is he going to keep chipping away at Ukraine until he has the lot under his direct control?

[mr friendly guy]

Not sure. But if I made an educated guess, that will depends on whether you mean by "under his direct control" having it a part of Russia or as a separate state but highly pliable to his goals. An example of the latter would include being a part of his Eurasian customs union. I think he will go for the second option (well he has pretty much stated he wants some ex Soviet republics to be part of his custom union which naturally will be dominated by Moscow) but I doubt he will try the former. While its quite conceivable to me that Crimea would have quite high pro Russian sentiment, having say Western Ukraine feeling the same way ain't going to happen unless Russia invents sci fi like brainwashing tech. Thus its not within his power to do the former (ie merge them into Russia as opposed to a customs union), and I figure Putin is at least aware of this and would aim for more realistic goals.

[Mange]

I am not a fan of territory trading hands like this unless one state willingly sells land to another. However I can appreciate irony. So when can we expect Russia to remind the US and Europe about Kosovo in direct diplomatic conversation?

My personal feelings on Kosovo's status aside, I agree with Stas on this one: Kosovo is not a good comparison. Not only did Albania not annex Kosovo, but the country wasn't under an illegal military occupation (and the referendum wasn't about joining the occupying country which is contrary to international law), the United States didn't turn it into the 51st state, the Kosovo Albanians had been subject to ethnic cleansing and oppression and the declaration of independence followed an almost decade-long debate. The referendum in Crimea was set up ten days in advance with no public debate (and in an atmosphere that didn't allow for much debate either and this was a non-issue before the crisis started) and with circumstances, and a result, that's laughable (the local news here reported that the voting lists in some polling stations were from 1999 and on CNN a journalist claimed that an official at a polling station said that only one-fifth of the voters were on the voting lists with four-fifths being added on when they voted which of course makes it possible to go from polling station to polling station and cast ballots).

Uh, Lonestar, you realize that there were very few ethnic Ukrainians in the place to begin with and that 95% are from the number of people voted, which IIRC is around 80% of the total eligible population. And this is pretty much in line with the ethnic breakdown.

Uh, Stas. The last census was conducted in 2001, and then ethnic Russians made up 58 percent of the population of Crimea, 24 percent were Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars made up 12 percent of the population. In the last poll about secession from Ukraine before the crisis erupted and which I referred to earlier, 53 percent of the respondents wanted Crimea to continue to be part of Ukraine.

I'm pretty sure ethnic Russians would vote for joining Russia anyway. There's not a single idiot among the Russians who wants to be ukraininzed or, in the event if that fails, to get a non-citizens passport because he doesn't know Ukrainian, a language he never ever intended to learn or know. I'm sorry I'm putting it very bluntly, but this is how it is.

I've seen plenty of e-mails etc. from "idiot Russians" who wants Crimea to remain part of Ukraine. BBC had a nice piece on a Russian family in Sevastopol who considered moving to western Ukraine:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26521311

What's so appealing becoming part of an increasingly authoritarian regime? I believe that many young Ukrainians of Russian heritage are asking the same question.

People seem to forget that Austria was not a victim of Germany. It was a critical racist component of the Third Reich and rejoined willingly, supporting nationalists until... Well, they never stopped, actually. If people make these parallels, they should remember some people can really wish to go to the bad guys.

Sorry Stas, but that's flat out wrong (heck, the Moscow Declaration in 1943 doesn't agree with you). Is your view on history that skewed as well? Austria didn't willingly become part of the German Reich and even Schuschnigg was certain that the referendum he planned to held was going to turn out in favor of Austria remaining independent (something that was most likely correct) with the help of the Social Democrats which he legalized shortly before the referendum was to take place. The referendum was of course cancelled following the National Socialist coup. That elements in Austria supported the Anschluss to Germany and that Austria has failed to come to terms with its history is undeniable though.

[Welf]

My question is - what next? Everybody knows that this referendum is a sham, but what would anybody realistically be able to do if Russia annexes the territory? Would Ukraine risk war to try and stop this?

Easy question, so people can say this:

Uh, Lonestar, you realize that there were very few ethnic Ukrainians in the place to begin with and that 95% are from the number of people voted, which IIRC is around 80% of the total eligible population. And this is pretty much in line with the ethnic breakdown.

I'm pretty sure ethnic Russians would vote for joining Russia anyway. There's not a single idiot among the Russians who wants to be ukraininzed or, in the event if that fails, to get a non-citizens passport because he doesn't know Ukrainian, a language he never ever intended to learn or know. I'm sorry I'm putting it very bluntly, but this is how it is.

Maybe the Crimeans want to join Russia, maybe not. We will never know. The only way we could have find out what the people want would have been free and fair elections. Instead we have a number and can only speculate. Putin will build up the narrative that the Crimeans wanted to join Russia and that the number is correct. People with antipathies for the west will share that story, people with antipathies for Russia will claim it was an illegal vote. But since most people somewhat assume the Russians are in the majority and all Russians always want to go back to Russia the narrative of the Kremlin will prevail long-term.

[Mange]

Putin is going to adress both chambers tomorrow, but I have a feeling that he doesn't dare to annex Crimea and that Crimea will end up something like South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We'll see how this is going to play out.

[mr friendly guy]

I am not a fan of territory trading hands like this unless one state willingly sells land to another. However I can appreciate irony. So when can we expect Russia to remind the US and Europe about Kosovo in direct diplomatic conversation?

My personal feelings on Kosovo's status aside, I agree with Stas on this one: Kosovo is not a good comparison. Not only did Albania not annex Kosovo, but the country wasn't under an illegal military occupation (and the referendum wasn't about joining the occupying country which is contrary to international law), the United States didn't turn it into the 51st state, the Kosovo Albanians had been subject to ethnic cleansing and oppression and the declaration of independence followed an almost decade-long debate. The referendum in Crimea was set up ten days in advance with no public debate (and in an atmosphere that didn't allow for much debate either and this was a non-issue before the crisis started) and with circumstances, and a result, that's laughable (the local news here reported that the voting lists in some polling stations were from 1999 and on CNN a journalist claimed that an official at a polling station said that only one-fifth of the voters were on the voting lists with four-fifths being added on when they voted which of course makes it possible to go from polling station to polling station and cast ballots).

The arguments against Russia are not just its 1) wrong to annex Crimea, but it also includes 2) it violates Ukraine's sovereignty (which it does) or 3) people have a right to self determination. Kosovo is a good example of arguments 2 and 3. Both justifications would also cause Ukraine or Serbia to lose territory. Guess which argument I am referring to when I bring up Kosovo.

[K. A. Pital]

A 97% vote in favor of anything reaches almost North Korean levels of bullshit

Heh, Georgia elected Mikhail Saakashvili with just that number in 2004. It isn't North Korea.

Putin is going to adress both chambers tomorrow, but I have a feeling that he doesn't dare to annex Crimea and that Crimea will end up something like South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We'll see how this is going to play out.

I think the same. So far it's another in the line of unaccepted republics like Transdniester, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Putin just said the independent Crimean Republic is recognized by Russia, although by the beginning of next year - if Russia goes forward with the "zero option" and economically crushes Ukraine, which is well within the behaviour pattern of Russian imperialists - Ukraine could be bankrupt and disintegrating. Then incorporating Crimea may go quiet and unnoticed.

Uh, Stas. The last census was conducted in 2001, and then ethnic Russians made up 58 percent of the population of Crimea, 24 percent were Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars made up 12 percent of the population. In the last poll about secession from Ukraine before the crisis erupted and which I referred to earlier, 53 percent of the respondents wanted Crimea to continue to be part of Ukraine.

Like I explained to Lonestar, you are looking at the wrong numbers. Which primary language do people in Crimea speak? 97% Russian. "Ethnic Russian" and "ethnic Ukrainian" are too similar to actually matter here. That's like saying ethnic Belorussians are a completely different ethnicity from Russians. They're too close. And of course, before the crisis a lot of people maybe wanted to stay with Ukraine. Now that it's controlled by people whose first action is to rescind regional language preferences, I'm pretty sure a lot of people have changed their minds. The example of Latvia is pretty fresh (and Russia made sure it stays fresh through propaganda on TV - nobody wants to become a pariah with non-citizenship unless you learn to use the official language). This could've been avoided if Ukraine adopted official bilinguality (like many nations do) - that'd send a strong signal of non-belligerence to the Russian-speaking minority.

I've seen plenty of e-mails etc. from "idiot Russians" who wants Crimea to remain part of Ukraine.

Found by the BBC's tireless correspondents? I mean, I am sure some want to remain part of Ukraine, but I cannot be sure this number exceeds 30% of the population. Can you?

What's so appealing becoming part of an increasingly authoritarian regime?

If you are choosing between that and a failed and bankrupt state, I'm afraid the answer is obvious. Or rather, one small example for you. I once had an income below poverty line in Russia. When I went to Ukraine, my income seemed twice higher than theirs. It was absolutely atrocious, since it was barely enough to buy food and sometimes you had to do without, though you could avoid being malnourished. In 20 years of this independence nothing has changed. A state with equal position as Poland in the early 1990s is now in a position barely better than China or some failed poor parts of former Yugoslavia. I am pretty sure that joining Russia is bad, but I am also sure staying in a collapsing post-Soviet bantustan is much worse for many people.

Sorry Stas, but that's flat out wrong (heck, the Moscow Declaration in 1943 doesn't agree with you)

I know. I also know for a fact that there was neither a German Civil War nor an Austrian Civil War to prevent Nazism or the Anschluss. No civil war? No resistance. What I know is that massive numbers of Germans and Austrians fought for the Reich until the very end, bitterly, and massive numbers were involved in its extermination programs and war. I also know that the results of the Nazi vote in Austria were simply overwhelming. It is infeasible to both heavily support the Nazis and also support independence, since the very same Nazis reattached Austria to the Reich.

[Siege]

I don't believe Putin will stop at leaving Crimea as another South Ossetia. The Kremlin has not forgotten what that sort of setup lead to in '08 and Putin probably also realizes that if Ukraine moves closer to the EU and if its economy subsequently improves, Crimea might well move right back out of Russia's sphere of influence. That's a big 'if', but right now Russia has a window of opportunity to 'recover' Crimea and decisively rule out the possibility entirely so why waste it? Putin has clearly hedged all his bets on the idea that 'these are Russians who want to once more be part of Russia', he's not going to stop short of full reabsorption of Crimea:

Russian President Vladimir Putin, defying Ukrainian protests and Western sanctions, told parliament on Tuesday that Russia will move forward with procedures to annex Ukraine's Crimean region.

Putin signed an order "to approve the draft treaty between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Crimea on adopting the Republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation". The order indicated the president would sign the treaty with Crimea's Russian-installed leader, who is in Moscow to request incorporation into Russia, but it gave no date.

The move followed a disputed referendum in Crimea on Sunday, staged under Russian military occupation, in which a Soviet-style 97 percent of voters were declared to have voted to return to Russian rule, after 60 years as part of Ukraine.

By pressing ahead with steps to dismember Ukraine against its will, Putin raised the stakes in the most serious East-West crisis since the end of the Cold War.

If the EU were to pull out all the stops on sanctions then maybe, maybe that might deter Russia. Even then though I doubt it'd stop Putin at this stage: given the rhetorical strength of the 'fascist threat to the oppressed peoples of Crimea supported by the West' narrative that just would appear like caving into pressure from the very people the Kremlin claims to want to protect the Crimeans from. And from a purely political standpoint Crimea isn't worth the headache for the EU.

The Ukrainians meanwhile seem to be making the right moves by promising to grant "the broadest range of powers" to Ukraine's other Russian-speaking regions. That I'd say is the right thing to do: be reasonable, grant the eastern regions more autonomy, defuse the protests, prove Putin's fear-mongering about the new government wrong, don't give Moscow more munition to use against you.

[fgalkin]

also realizes that if Ukraine moves closer to the EU and if its economy subsequently improves,

Wait, what? I'm sorry. My brain just stumbled over that to the point that I can't even finish the rest of your post. How is this thing you speak of possible?

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Ahriman238]

MOSCOW - Crimea was “stolen” from Russia when it was handed to Ukraine half a century ago, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday.

In a speech setting out Moscow’s historical ties to the peninsula, Putin said Crimea was a symbol of Russia’s military glory and the birthplace of its navy. Putin moved closer to annexing Crimea on Tuesday, two days after a controversial referendum.

To rapturous applause from lawmakers during an address to a joint session of parliament, Putin described the 1954 allocation of Crimea to Ukraine by then Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev as a mistake and said that the wishes of the local people had been ignored.

He said Russia was going through a “difficult phase” at the time.

"The people of Crimea were not asked about anything,” he said. “It was hard to imagine then that Russia and Ukraine would be different countries. But it happened. The U.S.S.R. collapsed."

"When Crimea became part of a different state Russia felt it was stolen. A million people went to bed in one country and woke up in another.”

He said Russia thought Ukraine would be a friendly neighbor but that the situation "developed differently."

The U.S. and E.U. responded to the Crimean referendum Monday by imposing asset freezes and travel bans on Russian and Ukrainian officials.

They said the vote vote was illegitimate and carried out under threat of violence and intimidation from forces believed to be backed by Moscow.

Alexander Smith contributed to this report from London.

A "difficult phase?" Really?

Well, he's sure pushing hard in that rhetoric.

[Thanas]

A 97% vote in favor of anything reaches almost North Korean levels of bullshit

Heh, Georgia elected Mikhail Saakashvili with just that number in 2004. It isn't North Korea.

Given how only 58% of the Crimea is ethnically Russian I very much doubt that the 97% vote is in any way legitimate.

[Borgholio]

A 97% vote in favor of anything reaches almost North Korean levels of bullshit

Heh, Georgia elected Mikhail Saakashvili with just that number in 2004. It isn't North Korea.

Given how only 58% of the Crimea is ethnically Russian I very much doubt that the 97% vote is in any way legitimate.

Not to pick nits, but could they be referring to 97% of the people who actually voted? I mean if you don't vote, your voice isn't counted...

[Thanas]

Yeah, and I am sure the Russians counted all people who got to vote fairly and never had any bias against groups who might vote against a union.

[Borgholio]

Yeah, and I am sure the Russians counted all people who got to vote fairly and never had any bias against groups who might vote against a union.

Russia influencing an election? That's unpossible...

[K. A. Pital]

Yeah, and I am sure the Russians counted all people who got to vote fairly and never had any bias against groups who might vote against a union.

Thanas, in your view how are an ethnic Ukrainian and an ethnic Russian, both of whom speak Russian as primary language, different in the way of nationality? Do tell, because Russian is used as primary language in Crimea by 97% of the population; all signs and official building descriptions always had Russian versions and Crimea actually used Russian as a regional language per the abolished law - before the idiots in Kiev decided that their petty feud was more important than keeping Russians complacent?

I mean, you all keep bringing up the "58% ethnic Russians". How come the 40% others use Russian as a primary language? That means using it as a primary language to speak inside their families. Do evil Russians make them do it, or maybe they are, in fact, ethnically different but belong to the Russian culture?