Ukraine War Thread

[Thanas]

Yeah, and I am sure the Russians counted all people who got to vote fairly and never had any bias against groups who might vote against a union.

Thanas, in your view how are an ethnic Ukrainian and an ethnic Russian, both of whom speak Russian as primary language, different in the way of nationality? Do tell, because Russian is used as primary language in Crimea by 97% of the population; all signs and official building descriptions always had Russian versions and Crimea actually used Russian as a regional language per the abolished law - before the idiots in Kiev decided that their petty feud was more important than keeping Russians complacent?

I mean, you all keep bringing up the "58% ethnic Russians". How come the 40% others use Russian as a primary language? That means using it as a primary language to speak inside their families. Do evil Russians make them do it, or maybe they are, in fact, ethnically different but belong to the Russian culture?

I don't give a damn what language they speak. The Russian numbers assume everyone voted for the union. This is simply unthinkable. Heck, even the elections in the Saar only managed to get two-thirds.

[Vympel]

It amazes me that people are actually going through the pretense of complaining about the legitimacy of the vote, as if there was ever any serious doubt what the outcome would be, and there's some sort of hidden majority of majority Russian Crimea who actually really love Ukraine and don't consider themselves Russian.

I don't give a damn what language they speak. The Russian numbers assume everyone voted for the union. This is simply unthinkable. Heck, even the elections in the Saar only managed to get two-thirds.

Voter turn out was ~80%. This info isn't hidden. Its a 97% yes vote amongst those who voted.

[Siege]

Ukraine crisis: Putin signs Russia-Crimea treaty

President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of Crimea have signed a bill to absorb the peninsula into Russia.

Mr Putin told a special joint session of parliament that Crimea had "always been part of Russia" and the move had corrected a "historical injustice".

As expected.

[Vympel]

On a lighter note, see the Russian ambassador getting his ass handed to him in the UN chamber. The crowd in the background appears to be enjoying the show.

That's because the "crowd" are Russians and are in all liklihood laughing at Samantha "Responsibility to Protect" Power, not Churkin.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-ru ... oto-2014-3

Seriously, why would you think the people in the Russian delegation section are anything other than Russians?

[Thanas]

It amazes me that people are actually going through the pretense of complaining about the legitimacy of the vote, as if there was ever any serious doubt what the outcome would be, and there's some sort of hidden majority of majority Russian Crimea who actually really love Ukraine and don't consider themselves Russian.

Crimean tatars count, don't they?

Are you saying the election was fair and legitimate?

[Borgholio]

On a lighter note, see the Russian ambassador getting his ass handed to him in the UN chamber. The crowd in the background appears to be enjoying the show.

That's because the "crowd" are Russians and are in all liklihood laughing at Samantha "Responsibility to Protect" Power, not Churkin.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-ru ... oto-2014-3

Seriously, why would you think the people in the Russian delegation section are anything other than Russians?

All I saw in the pic I originally posted was a group of people standing around laughing. There was nothing about the scene to tell me they were Russians.

[K. A. Pital]

I don't give a damn what language they speak. The Russian numbers assume everyone voted for the union.

They do not. 95% out of 75% which IIRC is the final turnout, is 71%. 29% did not vote. This means that only two-thirds of eligible voters support the union, others boycotted.

This is simply unthinkable. Heck, even the elections in the Saar only managed to get two-thirds.

BTW, me and Mange were wrong - Crimea is to be incorporated into Russia. Well, good day for all map makers, they can fix some hefty profits.

[Vympel]

While we're talking about Kosovo, regardless of how applicable it is to this situation (and I believe the main principle is referenda without the permission of the central government) - its pretty ridiculous how the argument is "oh well Kosovo was a one-off special case, because we say so", and this is an argument that people are expected to take seriously. Its not even disguised special pleading.

[Edi]

There are direct reports of those poll workers who were not pro-Russian being beaten, result lists having been filled out in advance even though no votes were yet in the urns and similar improprieties on a scale larger even than normal elections in Ukraine.

Tjhe vote results are about as credible as those in fucking North Korea. Anyone who tries to claim with a straight face that they are legitimate is a fucking liar.

[K. A. Pital]

Obviously the vote is no more legitimate than Russia's vote for Putin with 70% something. But then, it is also true that the majority of people support Putin. True extent of this support can't be known, but since all other political forces struggle to survive even when economy is in crisis and there are clear points of attack against the government, it is very obvious that they do.

Same here - the vote's a sham. But Russians there do support what's happening. If not - there'd be civil war and blood already. Yugoslavia is a good example. Republika Srpska, if you still remember that name.

[Edi]

Yes, the Russian minority supports it, but the problem here is that they haven't even attempted to make anything about the vote look legit. The mark of a tyrant is rigging shit even when they would still handily win without tampering.

It does not bode well for any non-Russian minorities in the Crimean.

[Edi]

To add to that, the way the Russian minority in the Crimean is handling this bit, if the Russian minorities in the rest of Eastern Ukraine decide to take the same tack, and they are already starting to look like it, there is no incentive for Ukrainian nationalists to refrain from using violence in return. Things could go to shit pretty fast if that happens.

[Thanas]

Obviously the vote is no more legitimate than Russia's vote for Putin with 70% something. But then, it is also true that the majority of people support Putin. True extent of this support can't be known, but since all other political forces struggle to survive even when economy is in crisis and there are clear points of attack against the government, it is very obvious that they do.

That is a very weak argument. By that standard every dictator who manages to not have armed uprisings against him has the support of his people.

Same here - the vote's a sham. But Russians there do support what's happening.

And you have got the free poll to prove that where exactly? The poll which goes against every single poll in the past?

If not - there'd be civil war and blood already. Yugoslavia is a good example. Republika Srpska, if you still remember that name.

There would be civil war against Moscow troops, Moscow gangsters and Moscow thugs on the street, with the same forces being better armed and entrenched already? Doubtful.

[Mange]

Well, I was wrong (as you pointed out), Stas!

It amazes me that people are actually going through the pretense of complaining about the legitimacy of the vote, as if there was ever any serious doubt what the outcome would be, and there's some sort of hidden majority of majority Russian Crimea who actually really love Ukraine and don't consider themselves Russian.

Of course this referendum was illegitimate. The referendum went both against the Ukrainian constitution, but more importantly, against international law regardless whether 50 percent or 99.99 percent voted to secede and join Russia. A referendum for independence is by itself not against international law of course, but international law doesn't guarantee the right of regions that wants to become independent or joining another country to do so. Furthermore, Crimea was under de facto military control of another country and an occupying power can not change the law or the legal status of the area under its control. This is an annexation which doesn't belong in the 21st Century and President Putin, in his speech, said that Crimea "had always been part of Russia". Well, Russia had signed not one but two treaties guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity so this looks like he was only looking for a pretext (reminds me of another leader with the same attitude towards treaties).

Furthermore, the election itself was a sham. The referendum, about something that up until then had been a non-issue, was organized in ten days, there was no proper debate, the only media on Crimea, after Russian engineers turned off the Ukrainian channels, were Russian state propaganda channels painting the interim Kiev-government as neo-Nazis, Russiophobes, anti-Semites etc. and there were gangs such as Serbian Chetniks (talk about hypocrisy!) roaming the streets as well as Cossacks beating up those with dissenting voices. I also mentioned the other issues with voter lists etc. earlier.

EDIT: I just heard on the news that a Ukrainian military base is under attack and that a Ukrainian officer has been wounded. Wasn't there supposed to be a cease-fire until March 21st?

[K. A. Pital]

Yes, the Russian minority supports it, but the problem here is that they haven't even attempted to make anything about the vote look legit. The mark of a tyrant is rigging shit even when they would still handily win without tampering. It does not bode well for any non-Russian minorities in the Crimean.

Tatars? Personally I think they're not in danger. Russia will not risk turning Tatarstan into another Chechnya (if one recalls some history - in the 1990s it was very close to declaring a separate islamic state, no matter how awful this may sound). I may be wrong, of course. For the others - which minority is there? You could not tell a Ukrainian from a Russian by sight, and by speech almost 100% of Crimea is Russian.

To add to that, the way the Russian minority in the Crimean is handling this bit, if the Russian minorities in the rest of Eastern Ukraine decide to take the same tack, and they are already starting to look like it, there is no incentive for Ukrainian nationalists to refrain from using violence in return. Things could go to shit pretty fast if that happens.

Yes, that's what I'm afraid of. If the East of Ukraine decides to follow suit, Ukraine would just self-destruct. Not that it isn't on that way already, the end of a long path started in the 1990s. Scary, the Yugoslavian scenario just right next to Russia. Although obviously Russia's next in line for the Yugoslavian scenario. The country destroys every chance for a non-oil&gas based economy with every step. Though maybe Western sanctions, which I really hope will happen, will force Russian oligarchs to stop investing in overseas properties and embezzling money and start investing in something in Russia... *sigh* One can always hope.

That is a very weak argument. By that standard every dictator who manages to not have armed uprisings against him has the support of his people.

That is not a weak argument - that is a strong argument. Indeed many dictatorships had very strong public support. The lie that they had not is generally just resentment, inability to accept that a huge part of the populace supported the dictatorship, and thereby denial of public guilt and the way to absolution... and the idea of some exclusivity of support that only a certain type of democracy can have. The inability to estimate a level of public support in peacetime dictatorship does not mean there's none; in wartime the public support is easily estimated by the ferociousness of state supporters. For example, Hitler's supporters were plentiful, ferocious and willing to go until the end. Total war succeeded. Saddam Hussein had no such support - his state folded immediately and the rebel groups post-war fought pretty much everyone for their own goals, not for Hussein.

The poll which goes against every single poll in the past?

So that's why in 1991 Crimea voted to restore the Crimean ASSR (a sovereign state-precursor, since an Autonomous Soviet Republic - Chechnya was also one) instead of remaining just a region of Ukraine (as it was before)? And voted with a result of 93,26%? That's why in 1992 Ukraine's president seriously considered war with this new Crimean ASSR? That's why its parliament made a declaration of sovereignity in December 1991? Mind you, these events happened way before the current shit; at that time Russia and Ukraine were much closer; nationalism wasn't as strong, nazism was nowhere to be found at all and neo-fascism was only being born. And still Crimea almost fell off. At this time it was resolved diplomatically. In 20 years Ukraine did nothing but turn itself into a piece of steaming shit - life standards, corruption, economy, human rights - everything is shit there, just everything. Remove Yugoslavia and the only candidates vying for the Somali of Eastern Europe would be Ukraine and Albania.

There would be civil war against Moscow troops, Moscow gangsters and Moscow thugs on the street, with the same forces being better armed and entrenched already? Doubtful.

Of course, why not? After all, under the threat of ethnic cleansing people usually take up arms. If there are Ukrainian nationalists in the Crimea, they would probably do so. They were not afraid to fight the government in Kiev. Part of the problem is that there aren't that many in Crimea, and another part is that it is very unlikely someone can get cleansed if he speaks Russian. Even the 3% for whom it's not a primary language can probably speak it well enough to completely blend with the Russian crowd. One the other hand, if Russians form armed uprising units, capture administrations and create a revolution in the East, this means they are very seriously afraid since they risk civil war (and in the event of defeat, summary executions and prisons), and they really wish not to be with Ukraine. So who riots obviously is willing.

The referendum went both against the Ukrainian constitution, but more importantly, against international law regardless whether 50 percent or 99.99 percent voted to secede and join Russia.

Actually, constitution is irrelevant here. Russian constitution also disallows regions to rebel; yet Chechnya did, Tatarstan was very close and Dagestan and Ingushetia were close and may still be getting closer to that. International law also doesn't matter. Kosovo was a part of Serbia for centuries. East Timor wasn't a part of Indonesia, but the 'world community' and more particularly United States not only allowed Indonesia to take over it and commit grand-scale ethnocide, but also blocked any and all actions in the UN to stop it. Only moral aspects matter, legalism sucks balls. Moral aspects here are not in Russia's favor, since it is a corrupt autocratic oligarchy.

...but international law doesn't guarantee the right of regions that wants to become independent or joining another country to do so.

Some clever use of fundamental UN legalese ('right of national self-determination') for Kosovo let this happen. People warned against it. Some years later you have Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea. Catalunia and Scotland may secede in the future. And this is not the end. Is it good? Perhaps it is, the genie's out of the box and some empires may seriously suffer in the future. In fact, Russia's Far East may want to secede at some point if Russian economy collapses like Ukraine's.

Although this event reminds me far more of India's retake of Goa. Relatively bloodless, pretty swift and no major consequences. So far.

[Block]

Weren't both options Yes anyway? Just different versions.

[Siege]

Yes. The options were 'increased autonomy' and 'join Russia'.

Now, solely for your amusement, I give you the words of Vladimir Putin, from six months ago. His working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust! We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today’s complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos!

Wise words indeed!

[mr friendly guy]

While we're talking about Kosovo, regardless of how applicable it is to this situation (and I believe the main principle is referenda without the permission of the central government) - its pretty ridiculous how the argument is "oh well Kosovo was a one-off special case, because we say so", and this is an argument that people are expected to take seriously. Its not even disguised special pleading.

To add on, Obama has sanctioned individuals because of "undermining the sovereignty, territorial integrity and government of Ukraine." That's exactly what Kosovo is. All this talk about how Albania didn't annex Kosovo misses the point.

[Vympel]

Weren't both options Yes anyway? Just different versions.

No. The options were 1. Join Russia and 2. Stay with Ukraine with more autonomy (by reverting to the 1992 constitution). If you wanted the status quo, you could just boycott, since less than 50% turnout would've meant the referendum failed.

[mr friendly guy]

Putin thanked India and China for their help in the crisis. As far as I can tell China's "help" as it were was simply to abstain. Wonder what Putin's game is here? Maybe to give the impression that Russia is not alone in this dispute.

[Metahive]

There were of course no real options in the "referendum" since it was rigged from beginning to end and I find it mighty cynical to say that the crimean Russians will be better off in Russia than in a "failed" state like Ukraine when Russia has done its darndest to destabilize the Ukraine even further than it already was. Much can be said about the legitimacy of the crimean Russians to rejoin Russia, but the fact that Putin decided to achieve this via imperialist bullfuckery taints the whole process.

[Thanas]

Putin thanked India and China for their help in the crisis. As far as I can tell China's "help" as it were was simply to abstain. Wonder what Putin's game is here? Maybe to give the impression that Russia is not alone in this dispute.

IMO that is exactly it. China cannot have an interest in supporting Russia without answering dozens of questions about Tibet and Taiwan.

Some clever use of fundamental UN legalese ('right of national self-determination') for Kosovo let this happen. People warned against it. Some years later you have Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea. Catalunia and Scotland may secede in the future. And this is not the end. Is it good? Perhaps it is, the genie's out of the box and some empires may seriously suffer in the future. In fact, Russia's Far East may want to secede at some point if Russian economy collapses like Ukraine's.

One can hardly call it national self-determination if a foreign power is rigging the vote and has troops on the ground. That is like calling Hitler's attack on the USSR a correct use of the right to national self defence.

One the other hand, if Russians form armed uprising units, capture administrations and create a revolution in the East, this means they are very seriously afraid since they risk civil war (and in the event of defeat, summary executions and prisons), and they really wish not to be with Ukraine. So who riots obviously is willing.

Or bribed or enticed by Russia.

Also, Putin's argument of "we gave it away 50 years ago and were wrong in doing so, so we can take it back" is beyond bizarre.

EDIT: Oh wow, Putin apparently thinks this is the same situation as German reunification. How delusional can one get?

[Borgholio]

Putin apparently thinks this is the same situation as German reunification. How delusional can one get?

Wait, did he actually say that?

[mr friendly guy]

You can watch the translated speech for yourself. No I haven't watched it.

[Thanas]

Putin apparently thinks this is the same situation as German reunification. How delusional can one get?

Wait, did he actually say that?

Yes. From the official Kremlin website, official translation:

I believe that the Europeans, first and foremost, the Germans, will also understand me. Let me remind you that in the course of political consultations on the unification of East and West Germany, at the expert, though very high level, some nations that were then and are now Germany’s allies did not support the idea of unification. Our nation, however, unequivocally supported the sincere, unstoppable desire of the Germans for national unity. I am confident that you have not forgotten this, and I expect that the citizens of Germany will also support the aspiration of the Russians, of historical Russia, to restore unity.

I also want to address the people of Ukraine. I sincerely want you to understand us: we do not want to harm you in any way, or to hurt your national feelings. We have always respected the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state, incidentally, unlike those who sacrificed Ukraine’s unity for their political ambitions.

The entire speech is one lol to another. If he would not be the head of Russia, one would think this to be a raving lunatic on the level of UKIP. The Orwellian doublespeak is great.