But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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TimothyC
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But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by TimothyC »

WRAL wrote:By Laura Leslie

Raleigh, N.C. — State elections officials said Wednesday that they're investigating hundreds of cases of voters who appear to have voted in two states and several dozen who appear to have voted after their deaths.

State lawmakers last year mandated the State Board of Elections to enter into an "Interstate Crosscheck" – a compact of 28 states that agreed to check their voter registration records against those of other states. The program is run by a Kansas consortium, checking 101 million voter records. The largest states – CA, FL, NY, and TX – are not part of the consortium.

State Board of Elections Executive Director Kim Westbrook Strach delivered the report Wednesday to the legislative Elections Oversight committee.

Strach said North Carolina's check found 765 registered North Carolina voters who appear to match registered voters in other states on their first names, last names, dates of birth and the final four digits of their Social Security numbers. Those voters appear to have voted in North Carolina in 2012 and also voted in another state in 2012.

"Now we have to look individually at each one," Strach said. "Could there have been data error?"

The crosscheck also found 35,570 voters in North Carolina who voted in 2012 whose first names, last names and dates of birth match those of voters who voted in other states in 2012, but whose Social Security numbers were not matched.

"A lot of states don't provide last four SSN, or they don't have that information," Strach explained.

Additionally, the analysis found 155,692 registered North Carolina voters whose first and last names, dates of birth and final four Social Security number digits match voters registered in other states but who most recently registered or voted elsewhere.

That last group, Strach said, was most likely voters who moved out of state without notifying their local boards of elections. "Those may be voters we need to remove because they've left North Carolina."

Strach also said a "10-year death audit" found 13,416 deceased voters who had not been removed from voter rolls as of October 2013. Eighty-one of those individuals, she said, died before an election in which they are recorded as having voted.

Strach cautioned that about 30 of those 81 voters appear to have legally cast their votes early via absentee ballot and then died before Election Day.

However, she said, "There are between 40 and 50 [voters] who had died at a time that that's not possible."

"We're in the process of looking at each of these to see," Strach said. "That means either a poll or precinct worker made a mistake and marked the wrong person, or someone voted for them. That's something we can't determine until we look into each case."

Strach's agency is asking legislators for a few key changes they say will improve voter security.

First, the elections board is asking for permission to compile a secure database of digital photographs and electronic signatures that would be available to county elections workers through the state's secure electronic poll book system.

Only 38 counties use that state system, said elections board analyst Marc Burris, while 53 counties still rely on paper election rolls. Counties would have to pay for the hardware in each precinct. But Burris says it would allow workers to check immediately for duplicate voting.

The board is proposing to use state Division of Motor Vehicles photos where possible but is also seeking permission to start a pilot program to take digital photos of voters at voting sites. Those photos would be stored securely and would allow poll workers to use biometrics or facial recognition systems to verify voters' identity.

Burris couldn't immediately say how many cases of duplicate voting are reported in the state. He said the current system, in theory, would block one person from obtaining two ballots. Where there have been cases of duplicate voting, Burris said, "It's more typical that an absentee vote is filed and an Election Day vote is filed."

"I think the big bombshell today is that you have documented voter fraud that has occurred," said Rep. Tim Moore, R-Cleveland. "We have over 36,000 people who apparently voted in this state illegally and committed felonies."

"Are these coming from particular counties?" Moore asked. "Do you have their names and addresses? Is that public information?"

Strach said it is not public information. "We're treating it as a potential criminal investigation until we discern otherwise."

"Could it be voter fraud? Sure, it could be voter fraud," Strach said. "Could it be an error on the part of a precinct person choosing the wrong person's name in the first place? It could be. We're looking at each of these individual cases."

Republican committee members seized on the report as proof that voter fraud is common. Moore asked how many cases happened during early voting, but Strach didn't have that data.

"This is proof positive that voter fraud has in fact occurred." Moore said. "For years, all of us have known anecdotally of different types of voter fraud."

"We have the 'Walking Dead,' and now we've got the 'Voting Dead,'" said Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg. "I guess the reason there's no proof of voter fraud is because we weren't looking for it."

Asked by Rucho to confirm that 50 dead people had voted, Strach declined.

"I do want to stress that the reason could be precinct error," she said.

Asked if her agency had sent any cases to local law enforcement, Strach said it had, but none had so far been prosecuted.

Sen. Angela Bryant, D-Nash, pointed out that the current changes in voting laws and the requirement for voters to present photo identification at the polls will not stop anyone from voting in two states.

Moore said he believes at least 36,000 people committed voter fraud in 2012.

"I would say, if you've got a first name, a last name and a date of birth, you've got the same person. What are the odds of that?" he said, adding that the numbers would be higher if the largest states were part of the compact.

"It is just as much voter suppression if votes are being cast fraudulently or illegally in this state as vote not being cast, because it is resulting in a result that does not reflect the will of the electorate," he said.

House Speaker Thom Tillis and Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger said in a joint statement that the data shows the need for the voting changes that lawmakers approved last year.

“While we are alarmed to hear evidence of widespread voter error and fraud, we are encouraged to see the common-sense law passed to ensure voters are who they say they are is working,” Tillis and Berger said in the statement. “These findings should put to rest ill-informed claims that problems don’t exist and help restore the integrity of our elections process.”

Voting rights advocate Bob Phillips with Common Cause NC said he, too, is concerned about the repoirt and wants to see the cases investigated. But he said it still doesn't justify House Bill 589, the 2013 law that included voter ID and several other key changes.

"I think a lot of [lawmakers] are saying, 'Aha, this proves what we did,'" Phillips said. "But if I have an ID, how is that going to stop me from voting in North Carolina if I've already voted in Florida?"

"In my mind, it doesn't justify cutting early voting. It doesn't justify eliminating same-day voter registration. It has nothing to do with eliminating the pre-registration for 16- and 17-year-olds. A lot of what 589 did, that is not connected to this information," Phillips said. "But I'm saying - as an advocate for good government, and an advocate for easy, accessible voting - sure, this needs to be looked at."
So, we've got 700+ probable cases of double voting, and about 40 probable cases of voting while dead.

Of course, if you want to know how hard/easy fraud can be, I suggest that one reads the NYC Department of Investigations reportfrom last year - where they found it was easy to commit fraud (the individuals in question were operating as agents of the local government and double-voted for 'John Smith' to avoid tainting the outcome).

I would like to hear suggestions from the gallery about actions they think would work to reduce fraud. Let's suggest things like tying death records to the voter rolls so that the dead can't vote anymore, lets talk about integrating voter lists on a national level.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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The US doesn't have a national voter list?

This seems puzzling.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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A whopping 765? Considering the sheer amount of registered voters that sounds like the system is working pretty good.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by TimothyC »

Gandalf wrote:The US doesn't have a national voter list?

This seems puzzling.
Managing voter lists was a task that was not delegated to the federal government, and thus has always been run by state or county governments.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by TimothyC »

General Zod wrote:A whopping 765? Considering the sheer amount of registered voters that sounds like the system is working pretty good.
You do realize those are situations where someone is stupid enough to vote in one of the specified counties in North Carolina, and vote in one of the other states that the study had data for while having records that matched names, DoBs, and last-4 SSNs. The 765 is a very low-ball estimate. Numbers in the thousands are not only possible, but likely.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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TimothyC wrote:
General Zod wrote:A whopping 765? Considering the sheer amount of registered voters that sounds like the system is working pretty good.
You do realize those are situations where someone is stupid enough to vote in one of the specified counties in North Carolina, and vote in one of the other states that the study had data for while having records that matched names, DoBs, and last-4 SSNs. The 765 is a very low-ball estimate. Numbers in the thousands are not only possible, but likely.
Where's the evidence that all of these are malicious? Out of all the fraudulent voting cases prosecuted in the last decade most of them were simply a result of mistakes, not a direct intent to commit fraud.

Look, if you're so concerned with fraudulent voting, here's one idea to solve the "problem". Instead of requiring an ID which is easily circumvented, why not simply request a thumbprint when you submit your ballot? The thumbprint is transmitted instantly to a centralized database and compared against existing thumbprints of submitted ballots. If there's a duplicate found it gets flagged and sent to review. You avoid any messy bullshit about purging ballots for having names that sound non-white or names that are spelled too closely to another person's.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Judging from the report, depending on the type of fraud, it seems to be at or around 0.2% to 0.6%. That isn't what I would consider "common" or enough to go overboard on the issue and risk voter disenfranchisement. A lot of this seems to be people not understanding the laws concerning moving and voting, a small portion of people disrespecting the dead, and a whole lot of mole-hills made into mountains. Obviously, corrections need to be made as voter fraud should be fought.

But, I don't think I've ever heard even the most die-hard liberal claim voter fraud doesn't exist. There's a difference between not existing and not being a massive issue. If anything, fraud already exists at a much higher level of government, as you can easily see just by looking at the gerrymandering in a state like Texas. Politicians seem to only give a shit about voter fraud if it impacts them negatively. Not exactly surprising.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Until the qualification of appears is removed by them actually investigating, who cares?
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Block wrote:Until the qualification of appears is removed by them actually investigating, who cares?
Given the conviction rate for investigated voter fraud I suspect we could wind up seeing that number drop considerably.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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General Zod wrote:
Block wrote:Until the qualification of appears is removed by them actually investigating, who cares?
Given the conviction rate for investigated voter fraud I suspect we could wind up seeing that number drop considerably.
Yeah, I think part of that is you have to prove intent to commit fraud rather than the poll worker being an idiot. It would make sense to have the FEC issue a free Federal voter ID or ya know, just use the Social Security card that every citizen should have and can get for free, but there'd still be bitching about fraud I'm sure.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Block wrote:
General Zod wrote:
Block wrote:Until the qualification of appears is removed by them actually investigating, who cares?
Given the conviction rate for investigated voter fraud I suspect we could wind up seeing that number drop considerably.
Yeah, I think part of that is you have to prove intent to commit fraud rather than the poll worker being an idiot. It would make sense to have the FEC issue a free Federal voter ID or ya know, just use the Social Security card that every citizen should have and can get for free, but there'd still be bitching about fraud I'm sure.
The problem with social security numbers is that they're far from reliable.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38678753

20 million Americans have more than one number associated with their name. 40 million numbers are associated with more than one person. Do the math.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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General Zod wrote:The problem with social security numbers is that they're far from reliable.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38678753

20 million Americans have more than one number associated with their name. 40 million numbers are associated with more than one person. Do the math.
I'm pretty sure that article is pointing to errors with credit agencies and other commercial entities rather than the SSA. I know that some credit card company tried to give my dog a credit card, but the Fed has never offered him Social Security.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Block wrote:
General Zod wrote:The problem with social security numbers is that they're far from reliable.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38678753

20 million Americans have more than one number associated with their name. 40 million numbers are associated with more than one person. Do the math.
I'm pretty sure that article is pointing to errors with credit agencies and other commercial entities rather than the SSA. I know that some credit card company tried to give my dog a credit card, but the Fed has never offered him Social Security.
People can share social security numbers though, and good luck proving you're who you say you are when that number is one of the key pieces to proving your identity.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Gandalf wrote:The US doesn't have a national voter list?
No, voter registration is by state.

Remember, the US has a passion for doing a lot of stuff on the state level that other nations do on the national level.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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Block wrote:Yeah, I think part of that is you have to prove intent to commit fraud rather than the poll worker being an idiot. It would make sense to have the FEC issue a free Federal voter ID or ya know, just use the Social Security card that every citizen should have and can get for free, but there'd still be bitching about fraud I'm sure.
As noted upthread, the Feds don't have the authority to register voters, that's a state power.

Also, no, not every citizen eligible to vote participates in the social security system. The two groups that come to mind are the railroad workers and the Amish. Why should they be disenfranchised? There are also concerns with identity theft when using social security numbers these days.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by Simon_Jester »

There are plenty of ways the state could make it cheap and easy to get voter ID. The easiest would be to have a modest number of roving workers who operate on the state's behalf out of the back of a van and routinely frequent areas where it's hard to get to the DMV, making photo IDs of citizens for free.
TheFeniX wrote:Judging from the report, depending on the type of fraud, it seems to be at or around 0.2% to 0.6%.
Since a lot of elections are decided by a few percentage points, I would argue that a voter fraud rate of 0.5% or so does justify some pretty significant anti-fraud measures. If 90% of that turns out to actually be bad record-keeping then 0.05% fraud rates are less of a big deal... but it IS reasonable to be seriously concerned at a 0.5% fraud rate. It's not enough to make elections a joke, but it's enough to have a good chance of tilting the outcome of an election.

While this may turn out to be overblown (see below) people are right to worry at a 0.5% rate of apparent voter fraud.
That isn't what I would consider "common" or enough to go overboard on the issue and risk voter disenfranchisement. A lot of this seems to be people not understanding the laws concerning moving and voting, a small portion of people disrespecting the dead, and a whole lot of mole-hills made into mountains. Obviously, corrections need to be made as voter fraud should be fought.
I'm honestly not sure how you could vote in two places during the same election by "not understanding the laws concerning moving and voting." For that matter, well, ignorance of the law is not an excuse.

But let's look at this.

There were 50 cases of "dead man voting-" but over thirteen thousand dead voters on the rolls who had not been purged. If whoever tallies votes at the precincts checks the wrong name randomly 1% of the time, so that about 1% of votes are recorded to a random wrong name... well, in that case you'd have about 130 votes randomly scattering to the names of dead voters, I suspect. Less for low participation- actually more like 65 votes if voter participation is 50% or so.

Again- OK, they found 765 definite cases of double-voting. On the other hand they found a hundred and fifty thousand voters registered to vote in two states. Again, suppose that 1% of all votes are misrecorded as being cast by the next person on the list in alphabetical order- that means that in every election cycle, the number of people wrongly recorded is 1% of all people. Including 1% of all people who are "double-booked" by having registered to vote in another state without cancelling their North Carolina registration.

Again, if we assume a 50% voter turnout, we get half of 1500, or 750 people who:
1) Moved
2) Were not purged from North Carolina's voter rolls
3) Appear on some precinct official's checklist
4) Were accidentally checked off as having voted, because they're Bill Smith and Betty Smith's vote was recorded by a careless septuagenarian precinct worker.


So the anomalies in North Carolina's voter records are consistent with a noticeable rate of vote fraud... BUT they are also consistent with what you'd expect if, say, 1% of all votes cast are incorrectly attributed to the wrong person at a given precinct because people are checking off names carelessly.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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here you go Simon, you're not far off:
Statewide, 68% of the state’s 6.6 million registered voters cast ballots in 2012,
and the article has a bit more breakdown for different groups if you want to do a meta analysis:
http://www.carolinamercury.com/2013/01/ ... ocracy-nc/
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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The numbers I chose were actually rather arbitrary, to illustrate the main point: that if you combine:

1) Tens of thousands of voters on the North Carolina rolls that should have been removed, and
2) Even a tiny percentage of improperly recorded votes at North Carolina precincts...

It's inevitable that some people will be accused of "trying to vote twice" when in fact they didn't vote in North Carolina at all. It's just that the late Samuel Jones got checked off for a vote that was actually cast by Samantha Jones.

How often that happens is difficult to estimate.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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America's system is too, in my opinion, decentralized to effectively police for voter fraud. There are some ways to address this, obviously (just pulled them outta my ass, admittedly):

1) An amendment that will move elections at the federal level should work. This would require federal IDs issued for free, with as little hassle as possible, in most government buildings; police stations, city halls, perhaps courthouses. Voter rolls, registrations etc will have to be turned into one nationwide system. The State Department can handle it, though it might need an extension.

2) Pass laws supposedly against fraud, but actually with the intent to hinder your opponent's voters from voting. Brag about it and get on the Intertubes for bonus points.

3) Decide that your government is fine as it is, your problems don't warrant all that reform, and accept minor inefficiency as the cost of doing business.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by madd0ct0r »

Simon_Jester wrote:The numbers I chose were actually rather arbitrary, to illustrate the main point: that if you combine:

1) Tens of thousands of voters on the North Carolina rolls that should have been removed, and
2) Even a tiny percentage of improperly recorded votes at North Carolina precincts...

It's inevitable that some people will be accused of "trying to vote twice" when in fact they didn't vote in North Carolina at all. It's just that the late Samuel Jones got checked off for a vote that was actually cast by Samantha Jones.

How often that happens is difficult to estimate.
I just guessed you'd want to rerun the numbers - with a higher voeter turn out rate, the error rate could be much lower and still result in the 700 they found.

with the pop size and voter turn out rate for sub groups with known voting tendacies, it should be possible to estimate how many votes from each group may have been recorded in error and thus how many legitimate votes for each party might be contested.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

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The real problem is that it's hard to measure the error rate. The easiest way would be to make up completely fictitious voters and see what percentage of votes wind up attributed to them, when you KNOW no one is registering under those names.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by madd0ct0r »

Now that's a sensible recommendation. You'd need a lot of them though - For the assumed error rate of 1%, for a real population of 1 million that's 10 thousand misallocated votes.
If you added a fictional person for every real one you could expect 5 thousand votes allocated to known fictions.
If you added a fictional person for every hundred real ones you could expect ~99 votes allocated to known fictions, and that still requires inserting 10k fictional people in to the electrol roll!
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by General Zod »

Incidentally, voting twice isn't really that easy to get away with.

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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by The Kernel »

This is all bullshit.

Politifact on voter fraud in the North Carolina report.

So yes, voter fraud is STILL not an issue. Move along.
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Re: But voter fraud doesn't exist!

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Jesus Christ, Timmy, let it fucking go. Your thread title's a blatant strawman of the issue under discussion, no one denies that voter fraud occurs. Individual voter fraud is neither common nor effective enough to statistically matter and make it an issue deserving of national or state attention or outweigh the fact that the "cure" you're proposing is worse than the "disease".
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