Game of Thrones Season 4 discussion (book spoilers included)

[Napoleon the Clown]

Everybody and their dog is aware Oberyn knows his way around poison. If the Mountain showed symptoms of having been poisoned, they'd probably figure he had been and it was Oberyn's doing.

Thing is, the situation meant that they wouldn't be able to do much about it beyond say that Tyrion lost the trial because Oberyn "cheated" at it. Given the way Tywin expressed the need for Dorne to stabilize Westeros, I doubt they'd really want to raise a fuss. You can't really tell a foreign power that you're going to be tossing one of their princes in the clink for using poison in a fight to the death.

[Thanas]

If there is one death due to poison, it looks suspicious. If there are two and they have a connection to a well-known posioner, it looks mighty suspicious. Three deaths, all known enemies? Now everybody wants his head.

Which is why I don't believe he poisoned Tywinn.

[SCRawl]

Everybody and their dog is aware Oberyn knows his way around poison. If the Mountain showed symptoms of having been poisoned, they'd probably figure he had been and it was Oberyn's doing.

As I had said, though, if the duel had gone Oberyn's way, poison wouldn't have been an issue, unless the agent in question was something which would impair his performance during the fight. There's no evidence that this is the case.

If there is one death due to poison, it looks suspicious. If there are two and they have a connection to a well-known posioner, it looks mighty suspicious. Three deaths, all known enemies? Now everybody wants his head.

Which is why I don't believe he poisoned Tywinn.

Here's a question: would even a Maester be able to detect the use of the sort of poison alleged to have been used against Tywin? From the description it seems to cause the victim to not be able to urinate/defecate. Tywin was an older fellow who probably had some trouble with these functions. Would even Pycelle, who is familiar with the effects of the poison, be able to determine, or even inclined to investigate, the cause of death of a man in his sixties who sickened and died over a week or so? And is Tywin the sort of guy who would start complaining of being unable to pee? Finally, Oberyn probably planned to have been long gone by the time the (alleged) poison had its final effects.

One thing sounds promising: given the way the show has been treating plot developments, we'll be hit over the head with the explanation when the time comes.

[Thanas]

A sixty year old men who was in the best of health and took good care of himself and his body? Sure. Besides, far less suspicious death have been alleged to be by poison. Three of them in the span of one visit? No way that will not arouse people yelling bloody murder.

[SCRawl]

A sixty year old men who was in the best of health and took good care of himself and his body? Sure. Besides, far less suspicious death have been alleged to be by poison. Three of them in the span of one visit? No way that will not arouse people yelling bloody murder.

You keep missing the point about two out of the three. For the Mountain's death, that was supposed to have been from combat, not poison. And for Tywin's death, Oberyn would have planned on being long gone, so even if poison were suspected, Oberyn could have been out of the reach of the victim's grieving family. And I bet Oberyn would have been happy to take credit once he was safely in his home.

And the third death? The Imp did it with Sansa's help, everyone knows that.

[Thanas]

And you keep missing the point that Oberyn did use poison only as a fallback option, aka the "Screw the consequences I am dead anyway". It takes more than a bit of a jump from poisoning a flunky to poisoning the hand of the king.

[SCRawl]

And you keep missing the point that Oberyn did use poison only as a fallback option, aka the "Screw the consequences I am dead anyway". It takes more than a bit of a jump from poisoning a flunky to poisoning the hand of the king.

I'm not sure about the "poison as a fallback option only" point, but if we take it as given, what would be the primary plan to get to Tywin without sacrificing his own life? He couldn't challenge Tywin to a duel, and he probably couldn't just sneak up on him when no one was looking. He clearly wanted Tywin dead, as justice for his sister and her children, and he didn't seem to think of poison as a particularly objectionable weapon.

When was the next time Oberyn was likely to be allowed to get within ten feet of Tywin again? I'm thinking probably never. So why not poison him, if he got the chance to do it without being immediately detected?

[Thanas]

Oberyn wanted Tywinn dead. Doesn't mean he acted on it.

[SCRawl]

Oberyn wanted Tywinn dead. Doesn't mean he acted on it.

This is certainly true. But given his competence and confidence, do you really think that (from his point of view) imposing justice on Tywin was out of character?

Please also keep in mind that I'm not arguing that this theory must be true. I'm arguing that it fits the facts as we know them. No court would convict Oberyn based on the evidence we have, though I have to say that I feel kind of silly saying that to you in particular.

[Thanas]

Oberyn wanted Tywinn dead. Doesn't mean he acted on it.

This is certainly true. But given his competence and confidence, do you really think that (from his point of view) imposing justice on Tywin was out of character?

Please also keep in mind that I'm not arguing that this theory must be true. I'm arguing that it fits the facts as we know them.

My main problem is that I just do not see Oberyn as that suicidal to poison the head of the biggest house there is and - if caught - condemn himself and Ellaria to death.

No court would convict Oberyn based on the evidence we have, though I have to say that I feel kind of silly saying that to you in particular.

No modern court after the beginning of the 20th century would (though I shall note that Britain did produce a guilty verdict for witchcraft against a women during WWII). Ancient and medieval courts convicted people for less and on the basis of far less evidence. Heck, just look up the trials under Henry VIII.

[Ralin]

My main problem is that I just do not see Oberyn as that suicidal to poison the head of the biggest house there is and - if caught - condemn himself and Ellaria to death.

Well again, seems pretty likely he would have bugged out back to Dorne as soon as Ser Gregor was dead and he was reasonably sure Tywin would follow him, doesn't it?

[SCRawl]

Oberyn wanted Tywinn dead. Doesn't mean he acted on it.

This is certainly true. But given his competence and confidence, do you really think that (from his point of view) imposing justice on Tywin was out of character?

Please also keep in mind that I'm not arguing that this theory must be true. I'm arguing that it fits the facts as we know them.

My main problem is that I just do not see Oberyn as that suicidal to poison the head of the biggest house there is and - if caught - condemn himself and Ellaria to death.

Yes, but do your ancestors cry out for justice? Are you a man of decisive action, accustomed to seizing opportunity with both hands? I'm not, but I'm trying to think like one for this exercise. If the one man I held most responsible for deaths I had sworn to avenge were to be within my grasp but once, briefly, and never again, would I shrink from the task? If I had already agreed to face the most formidable fighter in the known world, the Mountain That Rides, in single combat, for that same offence, how would a mere poisoning compare?

No court would convict Oberyn based on the evidence we have, though I have to say that I feel kind of silly saying that to you in particular.

No modern court after the beginning of the 20th century would (though I shall note that Britain did produce a guilty verdict for witchcraft against a women during WWII). Ancient and medieval courts convicted people for less and on the basis of far less evidence. Heck, just look up the trials under Henry VIII.

I think it is possible that you misunderstand me. I mean to say that I don't think that anyone could conclusively state that Oberyn poisoned Tywin from the evidence that we have. I think it not unlikely, given the hints dropped so far, and obviously you take the other position. And yes, I'm familiar enough with the show-trials of our pre-modern counterparts, at least in broad strokes.

[Thanas]

Yes, but do your ancestors cry out for justice? Are you a man of decisive action, accustomed to seizing opportunity with both hands? I'm not, but I'm trying to think like one for this exercise. If the one man I held most responsible for deaths I had sworn to avenge were to be within my grasp but once, briefly, and never again, would I shrink from the task? If I had already agreed to face the most formidable fighter in the known world, the Mountain That Rides, in single combat, for that same offence, how would a mere poisoning compare?

Well, you know, the mountain that rides is a well known thug who nobody cares about and pretty much beneath Oberyn. Though he is far from being the most formidable fighter in the known world. Point is, nobody really cares about the mountain being dead. Tywinn is another matter. As crazy as Oberyn as, I very much doubt he would want to care to have Jamie and the Lannisters on his head.

I think it is possible that you misunderstand me. I mean to say that I don't think that anyone could conclusively state that Oberyn poisoned Tywin from the evidence that we have. I think it not unlikely, given the hints dropped so far, and obviously you take the other position. And yes, I'm familiar enough with the show-trials of our pre-modern counterparts, at least in broad strokes.

I think we won't come to an agreement here.

[Raw Shark]

Granted, certainly-- but this is a society that's existed for several thousand years at least, during which the use of poison has been a valuable tool in arranging affairs one way or another. As such they have become fairly expert in its use and effects, to the point where it's one of the links in the maesters' chains. [snip]

Nitpick: There is no link specifically for the study of poisons; it is included in the silver link for the study of medicine in general (AFFC, Prologue).

[SCRawl]

Yes, but do your ancestors cry out for justice? Are you a man of decisive action, accustomed to seizing opportunity with both hands? I'm not, but I'm trying to think like one for this exercise. If the one man I held most responsible for deaths I had sworn to avenge were to be within my grasp but once, briefly, and never again, would I shrink from the task? If I had already agreed to face the most formidable fighter in the known world, the Mountain That Rides, in single combat, for that same offence, how would a mere poisoning compare?

Well, you know, the mountain that rides is a well known thug who nobody cares about and pretty much beneath Oberyn. Though he is far from being the most formidable fighter in the known world. Point is, nobody really cares about the mountain being dead. Tywinn is another matter. As crazy as Oberyn as, I very much doubt he would want to care to have Jamie and the Lannisters on his head.

In single combat, I'm not sure who would be more intimidating than the Mountain. In any case, Oberyn was certainly taking his own life in his hands by agreeing to fight him; he could not be assured of victory, and therefore survival. So from my perspective, if he's already willing to take that kind of risk -- not risk of retribution for the killing, of course, but risk of not surviving the duel -- the risk of sneakily dropping some Widow's Blood into Tywin's wine does not seem out of line, especially if he was planning on being out of town when the poisoning would finally be discovered.

If this chain of events did take place as suggested, then yes, house Martell would have been number one on the Lannisters' shit list, for sure. But Oberyn himself would just have to make for Dorne, and he would be safe. Would he risk war for justice? I think that he would. In Tywin's own words: "Oberyn has always been half-mad."

[Thanas]

In single combat, I'm not sure who would be more intimidating than the Mountain.

Currently alive? Barristan Selmy, Jamie Lannister (who coincidentally would also be after Oberyn) are both stated to be the best fighters there are. I would also maybe rate Bronn and Loras Tyrell above or equal to the mountain. And that is without going into the Bravoosi swordsmen or the next tier of fighters like the hound who can probably kill him in a duel with a bit of luck.

In any case, Oberyn was certainly taking his own life in his hands by agreeing to fight him; he could not be assured of victory, and therefore survival. So from my perspective, if he's already willing to take that kind of risk -- not risk of retribution for the killing, of course, but risk of not surviving the duel -- the risk of sneakily dropping some Widow's Blood into Tywin's wine does not seem out of line, especially if he was planning on being out of town when the poisoning would finally be discovered.

Would he be willing to risk the lives of his family though? That is where I disagree. I see Oberyn as willing to risk his own life but not the life of others or his lover.

[Imperial Overlord]

The Mountain is an expendable beast, a fact that Tywin is reminded of in the books. Tywin, on the other hand, is the leader of the faction that is winning the civil war, allied to High Garden which does not like Dorne, and Dorne can field one of the smallest armies in the Seven Kingdoms. Poisoning The Mountain is not at all like poisoning Tywin.

As for single combat, The Mountain is a huge, strong, sociopath. He's a scary guy, but he's not smart or ever described as particularly skilled. Bronn, for example, is fairly sure he can take him he just thinks its a bad risk now that he's a got land and money. Loras beats him at the tourney and The Hound stalemates him when The Mountain loses his shit afterward. The Mountain is a big, scary guy who will rape, murder, and burn without conscience but don't confuse that with being the best fighter in Westros.

[Scrib]

Meh. Bronn knew how to fight the Mountain. Doesn't mean that he could. It's kinda like those athletes that are very good at those few things they do: you might intellectually talk about doing X, but good luck. One fuck up against an opponent that has faced these strategies before and is really good at what he can do and it's all over. So Bronn can talk about strategy because he has no intention of fighting the Mountain. Call me when he actually does it.

As for Loras: he straight up cheated in a jousting match by using a horse in heat to confuse the Mountain's horse. Not quite some titantic struggle

[Vympel]

Meh. Bronn knew how to fight the Mountain. Doesn't mean that he could. It's kinda like those athletes that are very good at those few things they do: you might intellectually talk about doing X, but good luck. One fuck up against an opponent that has faced these strategies before and is really good at what he can do and it's all over. So Bronn can talk about strategy because he has no intention of fighting the Mountain. Call me when he actually does it.

I'm pretty sure Bronn flat out refused to fight the Mountain, actually.

[Scrib]

Meh. Bronn knew how to fight the Mountain. Doesn't mean that he could. It's kinda like those athletes that are very good at those few things they do: you might intellectually talk about doing X, but good luck. One fuck up against an opponent that has faced these strategies before and is really good at what he can do and it's all over. So Bronn can talk about strategy because he has no intention of fighting the Mountain. Call me when he actually does it.

I'm pretty sure Bronn flat out refused to fight the Mountain, actually.

That's my point? Bronn can talk about how he'd win all he wants because he has no intention of actually facing the Mountain. Because he knows that it's one thing to talk about it and another to actually do it.

[Mr Bean]

I'm pretty sure Bronn flat out refused to fight the Mountain, actually.

Bronn states explicitly he could take the mountain and has a strategy to do so but any mistake on his part would be instant death. Further the reward was not worth the risk because again he has to fight perfectly in order to win. Which tells me he has a tiny chance against the Mountain but 95 fights out of 100 he loses.

[Thanas]

Sounds more like there is a fifty-fifty chance.

[Raw Shark]

[snip] As for single combat, The Mountain is a huge, strong, sociopath. He's a scary guy, but he's not smart or ever described as particularly skilled. [snip]

No one could withstand him. That’s truth enough. No one could ever withstand Gregor. That boy today, his second joust, oh, that was a pretty bit of business. You saw that, did you? Fool boy, he had no business riding in this company. No money, no squire, no one to help him with that armor. That gorget wasn’t fastened proper. You think Gregor didn’t notice that? You think Ser Gregor’s lance rode up by chance, do you? Pretty little talking girl, you believe that, you’re empty-headed as a bird for true. Gregor’s lance goes where Gregor wants it to go.

[Scrib]

How did you come to that conclusion? Bronn says it so fifty-fifty?

Never overestimate people's ability to actually implement The Perfect Strategy. There's a reason it hasn't happened yet.

[Thanas]

How did you come to that conclusion? Bronn says it so fifty-fifty?

Never overestimate people's ability to actually implement The Perfect Strategy. There's a reason it hasn't happened yet.

No, just the same as in every duel. If you got a plan that will work (and I trust Bronn to have enough experience in deciding that) then it depends on your abilities to implement it.

That being said, I think nobody here will disagree with the sheer fact that the Mountain does not hold a candle to the top tier of fighters there are, meaning Selmy and Jamie (before losing his hand).