China raises tensions in South China Sea

[madd0ct0r]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... in_chinese

China has triggered a potentially dangerous escalation in tensions in the South China Sea with the dispatch over the weekend of the Haiyang Shiyou 981, a massive billion-dollar rig designed to drill for oil in waters claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi.
Vietnam has vociferously protested the move because the rig is squarely inside the 200-mile exclusive economic zone that extends offshore from every country; China, which claims the nearby Paracel Islands, says the rig is legal because it is working in waters that it says belong to Beijing.
It's hardly the first time that the search for energy has sparked fights between China and its neighbors in the region, but the latest step is a big deal for several reasons.
China had carried out energy survey activities in disputed areas, and prevented other countries, including Vietnam, from carrying out their own surveys in disputed waters, but this seems to be the first time that Chinese oil companies are actually drilling wells in waters claimed by other nations. Just as alarmingly, China and Vietnam have a history of armed conflict, including a bloody land war in 1979 and a series of armed skirmishes over disputed islands in the South China Sea. The oil drilling issue could potentially trigger a new round of sparring.
The Chinese move also represents a slap in the face to President Barack Obama, who just returned from a trip to Asia designed to reassure jittery allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines that the U.S. would deter Chinese maritime bullying. Six days later, Beijing took one of its most provocative steps to date. A State Department spokesperson didn't respond to requests for comment.

Last time they were gearing up over this (ships cutting each other's survey cables and the like) fighter jets were doing a hell of a lot of low flight training over my house. Hopefully it won't end up like the last Sino war, where both sides lost (or disposed of) a few thousand young soldiers and both claimed victory.

[mr friendly guy]

Not that this is that comforting, but the war in 1979 was over different reasons with the military aim of drawing Vietnamese troops out of Cambodia to focus on the Chinese troops coming across Vietnam's northern border. Needless to say Vietnam didn't pull their troops out to reinforce those facing the Chinese border. Based on this aim, one can sort of see why the Chinese were willing to commit troops across the border.

Contrast to the other disputes over islands in the 1980s where it was the PLAN coming to blows with the Vietnamese navy. The casualties are obviously going to be less than a land war. Currently the dispute if it escalates would likely be fought between navies, as there is no advantage for either side to fight on the land. Hence casualties would be less than the 1979 war.

[madd0ct0r]

Singapore-based South China Sea expert Ian Storey said the rig movement risked a "potentially very dangerous scenario."

"There have been standoffs with survey ships in the past, but this is something new," said Storey of the Institute of South East Asian Studies.

"There's been a great deal of speculation about how China would use this expensive new rig and it seems we now have the answer. It puts Vietnam in a very difficult position."

"They will have to respond to a challenge to their sovereignty, and when they do, China will be sure to make a counter move, so we are in a situation where a potentially very dangerous scenario could unfold."

China's Global Times, an influential tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily, wrote in an editorial on Tuesday that China should show a "firm attitude" towards Vietnam.

"China follows a moderate policy. But no country can always show a smiling face to the world. China shouldn't be angered easily, but if its interests are infringed upon, a strong retaliatory move should be expected," it said.

[LaCroix]

It's a queen trap.
China puts a very expensive rig into disputed water.
Vietnam can react in two ways - ignore it and loose sovereignity, or try to force them out.

If they try to force them out, China will probably play a passive game plan, and wait until the rig is either seized or damaged, and then proclaim moral high ground and send the navy in to deal with the "pirate neighbors", securing the sea for them. It would hard to ague for intervention on the Vietnamese side if they were the ones to initiate hostile activities. After all, it's a disputed territory. The fact that the rig is so expensive makes it even worse, because if something happesn to the rig it's huge monetary damage they dealt with their attack. Which China can spare, it's their part of the wager that they can only win - right now, they are only haggling about the final price.

However you want to look at it, Vietnam has already lost.

[madd0ct0r]

in any conflict with china, however you look at it, vietnam looses

I'm hearing on the vietnamese language media that 'a vietnamese boat has been attacked.' Waiting for a real news source.

Today is the 60 year anniversary of Dien Binh Phu, 'the battle that drove France out of Vietnam's territory.' There's parades out in the streets. I forsee something stupid happening.

[mr friendly guy]

Madd0ct0r, what are the views of Vietnamese nationalists on official media about the future. I have seen in English message boards quite imperialistic claims about Vietnam thinks it can do. Granted the guy was an idiot who thought Russia would lend them money because of "friendship" and they would eventually invade Australia after defeating China in the Spratlys. Just how far do official Vietnamese nationalists think they will go.

[Thanas]

China, continuing to demonstrate why the west and neighbours should be wary of them.

How far are Chinese nationalists willing to go? Because they are the ones escalating, not the vietnamese.

[madd0ct0r]

Just how far do official Vietnamese nationalists think they will go?

There's no shortage of idiots in Vietnam, but empty vessels make the most noise. AFAIK, all nationalism in Vietnam is focused on pushing China back. The phrase 'chopping off the dragon's tongue' refers to refuting their claim to the South China Sea. Official line is that that area is called the South Asia Sea or some such nonsense. I don't think there's a sensible person in Vietnam, including the nationalists, who would like to see war again.

The Vietnamese claims are almost as silly as the Chinese ones though. I personally support Phillipines as the only one who's offered to go international court.

How far are Chinese nationalists willing to go?

Well, I've heard people who still talk about Vietnam as a rebellious province

There is no doubt at least half of the communist aristocracy are in China's pocket, along with some key generals. When a Chinese company want's to open a new Bauxiite mine, it does so. The Chinese gambling resort in Da Nang is staffed completely by Chinese workers who sleep in barracks next door. The resort is not connected to the sewage system , but discharges directly out at sea. All the waste from the resort is piled up behind the barracks rather then go to the municipal landfill.
It is rumoured that certain army bases have Chinese workers inside the compounds, farming fish and shrimp for export up north. Further rumours that those workers are actually soldiers are, of course, false

Personally, I suspect both countries are quite happy to have this tension to serve as a distraction and unifying factor internally. I just hope some poor conscripts don't get chewed up because of it, but there's a long tradition of wars to reduce 'bare branches' (young men without hope of marriage)

[mr friendly guy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Schina_sea_88.png

The Wiki map gives a better idea. Several countries claim disputed islands in that region including the Paracel islands and the Spratleys.

The Paracel islands are about equidistant between the coastlines of both the PRC and Vietnam, but closer to Hainan island. Hainan is of course well known for beaches, captured American spy planes and hosting a couple of Miss World pageants in the last 10 years in the Chinese city of Sanya.

China current administers the Paracel islands. From what I understand the rig is closer to the Paracels than Vietnam. Where two nations EEZ intersect, its up to them to decide on the boundary, although as a general rule it an area defaults to whichever is closer to a particular country's territory. In this case it would be closer to whoever has sovereignty over the Paracel's, which is disputed.

[LaCroix]

Since they administer the Paracel islands, if the rig is keeping close to them, then their claim is (more) valid. Of course, this depends on where exactly they put it. They do walk a fine line, though.

[Thanas]

Since they administer the Paracel islands, if the rig is keeping close to them, then their claim is (more) valid. Of course, this depends on where exactly they put it. They do walk a fine line, though.

Indeed.

[mr friendly guy]

China, continuing to demonstrate why the west and neighbours should be wary of them.

How far are Chinese nationalists willing to go? Because they are the ones escalating, not the vietnamese.

I have seen claims about wanting to annex Vietnam, although I suspect these guys think war is like playing the board game Risk. Just move your troops over and presto. Idiots they are.
I think realistically, most nationalists dream of only taking China's existing claims (ie a bunch of islands which can greatly extend China's EEZ) but not like ah, Russia in Crimea.

However lets be frank. Vietnam has been licensing exploration rights to foreign oil companies to explore these same disputed waters for years before China offered the same deal to foreign oil companies (in 2012).
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 01303.html

That's provocative as well. Its just that now China actually can and bothered to build its own oil rig rather than relying on foreign ones, whereas Vietnam cannot.

The Vietnamese claims are almost as silly as the Chinese ones though. I personally support Phillipines as the only one who's offered to go international court.

I am no expert so take this with a grain of salt. The Phillipines claims are somewhat weaken because when they achieved independence they defined their boundaries quite clearly. That is the area that Spain conceded to the United States by treaty after the latter won their war in the late 19th century. This does not include the disputed territories. Even if they have some stronger historical claims than what the other nations are using as argument, the fact they didn't pursue it (unlike the others) for a while after independence could be seen as them having initially giving up the claim and now suddenly wanting it back.

[mr friendly guy]

Since they administer the Paracel islands, if the rig is keeping close to them, then their claim is (more) valid. Of course, this depends on where exactly they put it. They do walk a fine line, though.

The claimed location by Vietnam is 15° 29’ N and 111° 12’ E
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2014/05/pet ... g-rig.html

Here is what it looks like


Image generated by http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html

I put a red box around the Paracels because its not obvious when I zoom out to show where China, Vietnam and the Paracels relative to each other.

[LaCroix]

Reading up on the Paracels, the Chinese claim is very old, they claimed these Islands practically forever, and Vietnam basically only has the fact that one dude (Emperor Gia Long) claimed them to be Vietnamese, in 1816, and that French Indochina held them, briefly, specking for them (apart from publicity stunts and pissing contests, like declaring jurisdiction from afar or speches at conferences without China present).

Together with the proposed location of the rig, my call this move a rough, but fair game.

[mr friendly guy]

I suspect that an actual military conflict over this occurred in 1974 inflames tensions. Vietnamese nationalists refer to the Chinese stealing the Paracels from them. The problem though is that prior to the conflict, both sides held some of the islands so they didn't exactly "steal" all of them.

[madd0ct0r]

Reading up on the Paracels, the Chinese claim is very old, they claimed these Islands practically forever

go back that far, and china can claim all of vietnam

[Thanas]

Having read at the history, I think both China and Vietnam have a valid claim to the Islands. The most important thing speaking in China's favor is that after WWII the area was practically handed over to China and that they were the last ones to hold the territory. Vietnamese claims are valid in light of them being heirs to Colonial French Indochina. History before that is very convoluted and it seams nobody before the 20th century really cared much about the islands to really settle them and built fortresses etc, all those things which are usually expected to settle disputed territory.

As it stands, I think the Chinese claim is more valid - they actually administer the territory, they hold the islands etc.

OTOH, the Chinese claim to the Spratleys is beyond absurd.

[madd0ct0r]

it's hit the BBC. Pretty much as described by the VN language news, except slightly less hyperbole and no video (which may date from 2007)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27293314

Vietnamese naval ships and Chinese vessels have collided in the South China Sea, Vietnamese officials say.

The incident happened as the Vietnamese navy was trying to prevent the Chinese from setting up an oil rig in an area claimed by both nations.

No shots were fired, reports say. But Vietnamese officials said that water cannons were used on their ships.

The incident is the most serious between the countries at sea in years, with dozens of boats now in the area.

Vietnamese officials said on Wednesday that the Chinese ships intentionally rammed their vessels.

Several sailors were injured, AP quoted one official as saying.

Vietnamese maritime police official Ngo Ngoc Thu told media in Hanoi on Wednesday that Chinese boats had collided with Vietnamese vessels three times since 3 May.

Continue reading the main story
Analysis

Nga Pham
BBC News
Details are sketchy, but there is no doubt that this is one of the highest escalations of tension in many years between the two neighbours.

China wants to establish an oil rig and start drilling soon in the area only 120 miles (193km) from Vietnam's coast. This is the first time China has tried to explore the disputed waters between the two countries using its own rig and Vietnam does not want China to set a precedent.

Hanoi said it would do everything possible to protect its rights and does not rule out taking legal action against China at an international tribunal.

The US called China's plan "provocative" and urged restraint from both sides. But with dozens of ships from both sides confronting each other in the area, any careless move could ignite a bigger and potentially much more damaging conflict.

Chinese officials said during a regular briefing on Wednesday that the oil rig was within China's territorial waters.

"The disruptive activities by the Vietnamese side are in violation of China's sovereign rights," Hua Chunying said.

The incident came as Philippine police seized a Chinese fishing boat and detained its 11 crew in another disputed part of the South China Sea on Wednesday.

The boat carrying "large numbers of endangered species" was seized "to enforce maritime laws and to uphold Philippine sovereign rights", the Philippine foreign ministry said in a statement.

'Armed men'
China's foreign ministry called the action provocative and demanded the immediate release of the fishermen, who have been taken to a Philippine port.

The Chinese fishing boat was being towed to shore and charges would be brought against the crew members, a Philippine maritime official told Reuters news agency.

China's Xinhua state news agency said the fishing boat - named as Qiongqionghai 09063 - had been seized by an "unidentified armed vessel".

"Several armed men forced themselves on to the boat and fired four or five shots in the air. They then took control of the boat," Xinhua said.

China claims ownership of large parts of the South China Sea, including shoals and reefs, located off the coast of the Philippines.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, China and Taiwan all have competing claims in the region.

[ChaserGrey]

Personally, I suspect both countries are quite happy to have this tension to serve as a distraction and unifying factor internally. I just hope some poor conscripts don't get chewed up because of it, but there's a long tradition of wars to reduce 'bare branches' (young men without hope of marriage)

Given the reported demographic effects of China's one-child policy, one hopes they don't follow that tradition in the coming decades.

[madd0ct0r]

so pushing and shoving between ships is still going on and demonstrations in Vietnam are building.

Yesterday I almost posted the amusement factor of protestors with banners starting " I agree with the Goverment" but things got ugly last night.

A mob broke into the special economic area and looted a few chinese company processing plants. Rumours were flying that shooting had started at sea and 10 were dead. False, as far as I can tell.
Not all of the companies targeted were actually chiniese:
It's the Taiwanese I feel really sorry for.

[AniThyng]

I'm unclear on the meaning of your picture - it's a Korean Company, but has a chinese language signboard in vietnam? Why *wouldn't* anyone assume it was a Chinese* company?

*Leaving aside figuring out if it was PRC or ROC, presumably simplified = PRC, traditional = TW (or HK, for that matter).

[mr friendly guy]

Speaking of Taiwanese companies

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/1 ... 0F20140514

Taiwan companies suffering big losses in Vietnam as China tensions grow
TAIPEI Wed May 14, 2014 8:27am IST

May 14 (Reuters) - Taiwan companies doing business in Vietnam have lost billions of dollars as tensions mount tensions between Vietnam and China, an industry association said on Wednesday.

The losses included damage to manufacturing facilities which were set on fire, including those operated by Formosa Plastics Group, said Serena Liu, chairwoman of the Council of Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.

Tensions rose in the resource-rich South China Sea last week after China positioned a giant oil rig in an area also claimed by Vietnam. Each country accused the other of ramming its ships near the disputed Paracel Islands.

(Reporting by Lin Miao-jung; Writing by Faith Hung; Editing by Kim Coghill)

[mr friendly guy]

more information courtesy of NY times

Its a long article so I will draw attention to what I want to point out.

The marauding crowds appeared to take their greatest toll on Taiwanese and South Korean factories. The few workers and guards who remained in the streets, where the acrid odor of burned plastic lingered early Thursday, said they assumed rioters were at first confused about the factories’ ownership, then got caught up in indiscriminate looting that rippled out from the show of anger at China.

“There was quite a lot of damage,” said Chen Bor-show, the director-general for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, which functions as Taiwan’s de facto consulate in Ho Chi Minh City. Mr. Chen said that around 200 Taiwanese companies were affected. The South Korean Foreign Ministry said 50 Korean-owned factories were damaged in the riots, and one South Korean citizen was hospitalized.

While Taiwanese, South Korean and other foreign companies have flocked to Vietnam for its relatively cheap labor, Chinese firms have been able to meet most of those needs at home.

I have seen numbers on another message board (unfortunately not sourced) which indicates that the damage has been done mainly to Taiwanese companies which easily outnumber the amount of Chinese companies damaged. Next comes South Korea and then Japanese before finally China makes the list in terms of destroyed businesses. This article does suggest the Taiwan and South Korea angle here especially if Chinese firms still have been able to meet the cheap labour costs at home.

All I have to say is that the Vietnamese nationalists are shooting themselves in the foot.

[madd0ct0r]

more riots last night in a different province.

more factories torched, including one that allegedly had 2000 Chinese workers. Possibly 1 dead, possibly more (but unlikely).
Nearly all the Taiwanese and South Koreans ect have left the country. Factories standing idle, hundreds of thousands of vietnamese now out of work and the stock market has crashed.

rumours that the rioting was started by chinsese agents. more a reflection of the paranoia and stupidity of the mob then anything else.

[LaCroix]

Radio news are claiming over 20 casualties during the riots.
Reuters