Game of Thrones Season 4 discussion (book spoilers included)

[SCRawl]

But can sowing chaos really be his ultimate goal? It seems to me that it can only be a means to an end, and that end has to be someone other than the current administration running Westeros. Either that or anarchy, and how could he possibly benefit from that?

[Thanas]

He wants to sow chaos, no better way than to make the ruling dynasty look like a bunch of murdering assholes. Even better if they kill Tyrion, who many people remember as the real hero of the blackwater.

By Many you mean... Ser Garlan and Ser Balon Swann? I can't remember anyone else crediting Tyrion with anyone.

A lot of people saw him fight and lead the fight.

Varys is a Targaryen loyalist apparently. Though it depends how genuine you think the 'Aegon' in Dance of Dragons. My thoughts are not very since him being real would retroactively make Dany's chapters even more pointless.

It would be a great irony if the creator of the web of lies would be himself caught by an even bigger lie.

But can sowing chaos really be his ultimate goal? It seems to me that it can only be a means to an end, and that end has to be someone other than the current administration running Westeros. Either that or anarchy, and how could he possibly benefit from that?

By producing enough chaos that people will flock to the banners of the new Targaryen prince come to reclaim her homeland. And it is not just pure chaos. He systematically eliminates everyone who can be a good leader or a threat to this goal. It is really very smart what he does.

[SCRawl]

So chaos is not the ultimate goal, or more precisely, it is the goal of this penultimate phase of the overall plan. He wants chaos because chaos means the "usurpers" can't hold Westeros when the last phase -- the arrival of the "legitimate" heir to the throne -- begins.

[Thanas]

So chaos is not the ultimate goal, or more precisely, it is the goal of this penultimate phase of the overall plan. He wants chaos because chaos means the "usurpers" can't hold Westeros when the last phase -- the arrival of the "legitimate" heir to the throne -- begins.

Yeah. Just look at what he manages to accomplish. Before the current troubles, there were several noble houses. Now, when FakeAegon arrives?

House Lannister: All competent people are either dead, in hiding, or currently fighting a rebellion. The house went from one of the richest to being nearly bankrupt. People hate it even more than before and they have to deal with religious fanatics as well.
House Stark: Utterly ruined, with its territory being ravaged and everybody currently fighting everyone. The successor house, Bolton, is also in deep trouble in the north.
House Tyrell: Tinged by Lannister association, run by a fool and more occupied with marriage politics than doing anything else. Oh, and their most promising strategist and fighter just got roasted by oil and boiling water, so he is out of action for a looong time. Meanwhile, Margary might very easily be pursuaded to ditch Tommen for fakeAegon if necessary.
House Dorne: Lost their prince and are in general very weak.
House Tully: Ruined. Territory occupied by lannister forces. Head of house a captive of the Freys. Currently have a Lannister army ravaging the countryside.
House Arryn: Head of house captured by a pretender who is hated by everyone. Civil war incoming among them.
House Baratheon: Split in two, one half being Lannisters, the other currently freezing in the north. Lost their base of power to Tyrell forces, who might be unable to hold on to it.

The only one who would currently be able to oppose a determined rebellion would be Jaimie but he is not a leader of men due to his reputation. He also lacks the means.

That is an impressive track record - nearly everybody is neutralized or otherwise engaged.

[Crazedwraith]

Aside from the Lannisters' woes, little of that can be attributed to Varys. Most of it is the fault of the war which littlefinger started.

Oh and its House Martell, not House Dorne.

[Thanas]

Aside from the Lannisters' woes, little of that can be attributed to Varys. Most of it is the fault of the war which littlefinger started.

Sure, but he sure as hell has prevented the situation from getting better. And with Littlefinger out of the immediate picture...

[Mr Bean]

Aside from the Lannisters' woes, little of that can be attributed to Varys. Most of it is the fault of the war which littlefinger started.

Sure, but he sure as hell has prevented the situation from getting better. And with Littlefinger out of the immediate picture...

What Varys did in the book was more covering for Danny. In the show the telegraph office keeps them up to date to the minute but in the books when Robert dies it takes two hundred pages of Danny to hear anything time and again. And Varys is constantly lowballing the information he recieves via Illyrio and his other contacts to the small council.

While Varys does not do much to directly damage the houses, what he does do is keep them on edge and keep the Queen stirred up pretty much 24/7. There's a good bet he knows a great deal of most of the plots in the show like who killed Joffery but says nothing so Tyrion is forced to take his deal. He never acts directly except for a handful of times... and one of them involving a crossbow.

[Spekio]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

[Mr Bean]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

Peace
Stability
And a proven dynasty in his eyes. Keep in mind Varys efforts with Young Griff. To make a king not to breed one. To provide the sort of balance upbringing the right life experiences and training to make a good king rather than hope for breeding to create one. Dany is simply a means of legitimizing Young Griff by having a Targ marry another Targ.

[SCRawl]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

There is a theory that Varys is a
Spoiler

Blackfyre, and therefore a Targaryen himself

and this is what motivates him.

[Napoleon the Clown]

He wants to sow chaos, no better way than to make the ruling dynasty look like a bunch of murdering assholes. Even better if they kill Tyrion, who many people remember as the real hero of the blackwater.

By Many you mean... Ser Garlan and Ser Balon Swann? I can't remember anyone else crediting Tyrion with anyone.

Varys is a Targaryen loyalist apparently. Though it depends how genuine you think the 'Aegon' in Dance of Dragons. My thoughts are not very since him being real would retroactively make Dany's chapters even more pointless.

This will be a kind of squicky idea, but pretty consistent with the Targaryen MO... But Danny needs a king and Aegon would need a queen.

[Dominus Atheos]

Huh? Did I misread the DWD epilogue? I thought it was pretty clear that Varys wanted peace and stability in the realm regardless of loyalty, which is why he supported Tyrion when it looked like he could provide that.

Killing Kevan Lannister was explicitly stated to be part of a plot to throw the realm into chaos, driving the realm into the arms of Aegon, who would provide peace.

[Ralin]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

There is a theory that Varys is a
Spoiler

Blackfyre, and therefore a Targaryen himself

and this is what motivates him.

I'm coming around to that theory myself.
Spoiler

They always said that they were the real Targaryens.

[Guardsman Bass]

Spoiler

I don't think Varys is a Targaryen or Blackfyre, but the Young Griff could certainly be a Blackfyre descendant if what I suspect is his real mother (Illyrio's late wife) was a Blackfyre descendant. Not that I think it matters too much, since he's pretty clearly set up as fraudulent with the "Mummer's Dragon" prophecy - he might just be a total Perkin Warbeck type of character.

As for Varys, I think it's a mixture of "for the realm" attitude alongside him and Illyrio trying to pull off the biggest "long con" possible after a long history of pulling them off together. We know that he thinks power is just where people think it sits, so if people think that Fake-Aegon is a real Targaryen and he rules like a good king, then he might as well be a real Targaryen (obviously not true when you consider the magical side of things, but what Varys might be thinking).

[Ralin]

Spoiler

As a friend of mine likes to point out, the man may not have the eyes but he presumably keeps his head shaven for a reason...

It also adds a new dimension to the story of how he got castrated. Lots of people have dicks. There's nothing rare about those. King's blood on the other hand...

[Thanas]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

I think he truly wants stability. The Targaryens, despite all their madness, provided that for millennia. Thus, why not go with the proven line?

[Lord Relvenous]

The thing I find intersting is Vary's supposed Targaryen loyalism, considering his story. What does he have to gain, I wonder?

I think he truly wants stability. The Targaryens, despite all their madness, provided that for millennia. Thus, why not go with the proven line?

300 years. The Targaryen rule was 300 years long, and was certainly not all peace and stability (what with the Dance of Dragons and whatnot).

[Thanas]

Sorry about the date, must have forgotten something.

Still, 300 years of the Kings only harming themselves or a small fraction of the populace sure beats what is going on now.

[Ralin]

Sorry about the date, must have forgotten something.

Still, 300 years of the Kings only harming themselves or a small fraction of the populace sure beats what is going on now.

This is not the first time I've thought that while three centuries might be a good run for a real-life Chinese dynasty it seems pretty damned short for the magical dragon people from Valyria. Especially when compared to how far back Westerosi history as a whole seems to go.

[Thanas]

It is not as if they did not suffer setbacks mostly related to dragons, heck their most promising king and his line got extinguished in dragon chaos.

[Guardsman Bass]

Sorry about the date, must have forgotten something.

Still, 300 years of the Kings only harming themselves or a small fraction of the populace sure beats what is going on now.

There were periods of peace, but a couple really bad civil wars that affected most of the people in Westeros. Spoiler

The excerpts we've got from the World of Ice and Fire book show that Maegor's suppression of the militant Faith was more or less a civil war

, the Dance of Dragons was incredibly bloody and devastating, and the main Blackfyre Rebellion was another big civil war.

This is not the first time I've thought that while three centuries might be a good run for a real-life Chinese dynasty it seems pretty damned short for the magical dragon people from Valyria. Especially when compared to how far back Westerosi history as a whole seems to go.

Once they lost the dragons, they pretty much just became another Major House, with only the Crownlands, tradition, and allegiances with other Houses to keep them in power (their royal institutions were weaker than IRL medieval Kings, probably because they relied on dragon power and marriages to keep them strong beforehand). They were probably going to lose the Throne eventually with all the crazy people that pop up in the Targaryen line, I think.

[Raw Shark]

Spoiler

I don't think Varys is a Targaryen or Blackfyre, but the Young Griff could certainly be a Blackfyre descendant if what I suspect is his real mother (Illyrio's late wife) was a Blackfyre descendant. Not that I think it matters too much, since he's pretty clearly set up as fraudulent with the "Mummer's Dragon" prophecy - he might just be a total Perkin Warbeck type of character.

As for Varys, I think it's a mixture of "for the realm" attitude alongside him and Illyrio trying to pull off the biggest "long con" possible after a long history of pulling them off together. We know that he thinks power is just where people think it sits, so if people think that Fake-Aegon is a real Targaryen and he rules like a good king, then he might as well be a real Targaryen (obviously not true when you consider the magical side of things, but what Varys might be thinking).

This, yeah. Getting life-partner Illyrio's kid, trained in Good King Skillz by Varys, on the iron throne is the closest Varys can come to getting his own kid on it, having some sort of positive legacy in the world, etc.

[Pelranius]

I wonder if Melisandre will try to burn both Shireen and Rickon? Selyse is certainly addle headed enough to go along with it.

[Ralin]

I wonder if Melisandre will try to burn both Shireen and Rickon? Selyse is certainly addle headed enough to go along with it.

If Melisandre can get ahold of Rickon long enough to burn him she deserves to, given what Rickon's storyline is shaping up to be.

[SCRawl]

I wonder if Melisandre will try to burn both Shireen and Rickon? Selyse is certainly addle headed enough to go along with it.

If Melisandre can get ahold of Rickon long enough to burn him she deserves to, given what Rickon's storyline is shaping up to be.

We haven't seen Rickon since he split with Bran south of the Wall. Did I miss something about his storyline?