China raises tensions in South China Sea

[madd0ct0r]

from the gaurdian:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... s-cambodia

Cambodia said hundreds of Chinese nationals had poured across the border from Vietnam to escape the riots.

"Yesterday more than 600 Chinese people from Vietnam crossed at Bavet international checkpoint into Cambodia," Kirt Chantharith, a police spokesman, told Reuters on Thursday. Bavet is on a highway stretching from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's commercial centre, to Cambodia's capital, Phnom Penh.

On Thursday the death toll was unclear, although some news agencies reported at least 20 people had been killed.

A top Taiwanese diplomat said rioters had stormed a large Taiwanese steel mill in Vietnam, killing at least one Chinese worker and injuring 90 more. Huang Chih-peng said the violence took place late on Wednesday and early on Thursday at the Formosa steel mill in central Vietnam.

...

In 2012 Chinese authorities permitted large-scale anti-Japan protests amid rising tensions between the two countries over competing territorial claims in the East China Sea. Protesters in cities across the country vandalised Japanese shops and smashed Japanese-made cars before authorities ordered them to disperse.

China's propaganda authorities are censoring coverage of the protests, according to a leaked circular obtained by the online magazine China Digital Times. "Absolutely do not report on any news related to 'Chinese-funded enterprises in Vietnam being attacked by Vietnamese,'" it said. "Do not republish foreign coverage."

Meanwhile - the Phillipines and Vietnamese navy are attempting reconcilment via the dipolmatic medium of beach parties:

The Philippine and Vietnamese navies will hold a beach party to bond over their common mistrust of China, and forget — just for a day — their mistrust of each other.

Reuters reports that in June a delegation from the Philippine navy will travel to the disputed island of Southwest Cay, currently held by Vietnam. There, sailors from the two navies will drink beer, listen to music and play volleyball in celebration of their improved relations.

The islet is part of the disputed Spratly Islands, of which parts are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and China. The beach party symbolizes the way in which smaller countries have had to find new alliances in order to contain China’s growing might.

Southwest Cay was cunningly seized from the Philippines by Vietnam 40 years ago, when its Philippine occupiers left it momentarily to visit another island. However, these days the two nations share concerns over China’s assertiveness and recently agreed to expand cooperation. China warned them not to do joint military exercises, so a barbecue and beach volleyball will have to do for now.

via: http://time.com/59050/vietnam-philippin ... a-spratly/

[mr friendly guy]

I'm unclear on the meaning of your picture - it's a Korean Company, but has a chinese language signboard in vietnam? Why *wouldn't* anyone assume it was a Chinese* company?

*Leaving aside figuring out if it was PRC or ROC, presumably simplified = PRC, traditional = TW (or HK, for that matter).

Funny you should mention that

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da1c007e ... z321wGOXWO

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da1c007e-dc14 ... z321ynAKvC

Taiwan has expressed surprise at the attacks given that Vietnam’s dispute is with China. Asked why its companies were being hit, the government said Vietnamese mobs were unable to differentiate between the names of mainland Chinese companies – written in a simpler form of Chinese characters – and Taiwanese factories.
“The situation has been chaotic because we all speak Chinese,” said one official. “Vietnamese cannot tell the difference between traditional and simplified Chinese characters and we all have Chinese faces.”

Of course other sources are saying that Vietnamese were aware of the companies and they targeted those companies (including non Chinese ones) because of building resentment about how Vietnames workers are treated (yet note the Chinese workers injured in those same companies targeted).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/ ... s-oil-rig/

The reaction among Vietnamese against China goes far beyond resentment of China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Vietnamese workers believe Chinese factory owners have been exploiting them, and their anger extends to projects owned by Chinese from non-communist enclaves. Vietnamese have also long resented what they see as harsh working conditions imposed by Korean factory owners and their managers.

On a popular level, people do not distinguish much between Chinese from China and those from elsewhere. They may know the difference between Chinese and Koreans but include South Korean bosses among their oppressors. Vietnamese leaders, having permitted the riots to flicker and flare, are suppressing them. They want the rioters to make their point, but they don’t want the mayhem to get out of control.

Note of course the forbes piece seems to be apologia for Vietnam and conveniently ignores some finer details. Plus I tend to follow the rule that you "never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity" so I would take the Forbes article with a piece of salt.

[mr friendly guy]

The final tally has been done, and it seems that more Vietnamese factories were ransacked than mainland Chinese ones.

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1 ... nese-owned

Just 14 factories targeted in Vietnam's anti-China protests belonged to mainland Chinese
Of 351 plants damaged in one province, just 14 are mainland Chinese-owned, official report says

Only a tiny fraction of the factories looted and damaged in the violent anti-China protests in Vietnam last week were owned by mainland Chinese enterprises, according to an internal Vietnamese official survey seen by the South China Morning Post.

Taiwanese businesses bore the brunt of the two-day frenzy of arson, vandalism and theft as initially peaceful protests triggered by Beijing's move to drill oil in disputed waters off the Paracel Islands ran out of control.

Some 351 factories suffered various degrees of damage in Binh Duong province - the epicentre of the unrest in Vietnam's south.

Of these, more than 190 were Taiwanese. At least 27 Vietnamese and 19 South Korean factories were also ransacked.

In comparison, only 14 factories owned by mainland Chinese companies were attacked. Eight Hong Kong-run factories were damaged. One was torched, while another one lost six cars and some computers, according to the internal survey provisionally compiled last Thursday by the provincial government.

While the survey was limited to Binh Duong province it gives a general idea of the impact of the protests, which hit 22 provinces.

Binh Duong authorities estimate that more than 111,000 workers have been temporarily put out of work because of the riots, with many foreign investors saying they may not return. Only 1 per cent of these workers were employed by mainland Chinese companies.

Some in Vietnam are starting to worry that the protests may have done more damage to Vietnam than to China, which has used the opportunity to seize the moral high ground.

"It's not in our interest to damage our image in the world and kill foreigners," said a university lecturer based in Ho Chi Minh City who refused to be named.

Beijing yesterday evacuated another 2,000 Chinese citizens from Vietnam by sea, with two more ships still on the way.

HK firms shutting Vietnam plants after riots

Hong Kong investors in Vietnam have either decided to withdraw their business from the country or are considering doing so after the anti-China protests, according to businessman and lawmaker Felix Chung Kwok-pan.

Chung, the lawmaker representing the textiles and garment sector, said he had talked to around 10 Hong Kong businessmen who have textile factories in Vietnam after the protests.

"Two of them said they were definitely withdrawing because it's just too dangerous. And it's not that the rest of them do not want to leave, but they will need some time to see how the situation unfolds," he said.

He had heard that some Vietnamese were frustrated that Chinese occupied senior positions in many companies there.

Many other Vietnamese were dissatisfied by the long working hours and poor working conditions in Chinese factories, he said.

Rioting broke out last week, sparked by anger over China drilling for oil in a disputed area in the South China Sea.

Chung said the two businesses which had decided to withdraw from the country were located in Binh Duong province, the epicentre of the riots. Some 22 provinces were affected.

Another textile company, which is listed in Hong Kong, has already invested US$300 million in Vietnam and originally planned to invest US$100 million more. But Chung said the company was putting that plan on hold to see how the situation unfolded.

Stanley Lau Chin-ho, chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, estimated there were about 100 Hong Kong factories in Vietnam, many of which produce garments or electronic goods.

Lau denied allegations that Vietnamese workers had a limited chance of promotion to top jobs if they worked at Chinese factories.

"My understanding is that many Hong Kong businessmen are not usually based in Vietnam and they hire locals to help manage their factories," Lau said.

He said it was too early to say whether Hong Kong businessmen would pull out of Vietnam.

"For the near term, if their factories were damaged in the riots, they could not start operating again very soon.

"Production would certainly be put on hold for some time," he said.

While I linked this from a Chinese source, it was reproduced from Vietnam's own survey.

Lets see

1. 110,000 workers out of work in one province of which only 1% were employed by mainland Chinese companies

2. 190 Taiwanese factories damaged, 27 Vietnamese factories and 19 South Korean factories damaged. Contrast to 14 mainland Chinese factories. Its not about them mistaking traditional from simplified Chinese script, its just an excuse to loot.

This begs the question, close to a hundred factories were targeted which the article doesn't mention the country of origin. I wonder will there be any Western countries affected.

[Thanas]

Seems to be nothing more than a riled up mob which the authorities are unable or unwilling to contain. Not a flattering picture either way.

[madd0ct0r]

unwilling, primarily. The party clamped down very hard on planned demonstrations over the last weekend.

at the same time, some commentators who went down to film noted that most of the rioters weren't factory workers, they all seemed to have identical weapons, huge numbers of people turning up in a sparsely populated area and the local police forces were present, but not doing much.

Options:
1) police incompetance (entirely possible)
2) riots led by agents to discredit the party. possible sources would be chinese agents, the american-vietnamese backed groups or factions within the party itself.
3) riots allowed by party to scare middle classes back into line
4) all of the above, plus looting

to give you an idea of how out of touch some of the communist aristocracy is one quote from a friend: "Why's that commentator stirring trouble up by reporting lies like that? Stupid workers rioting because they don't get healthcare or unemployment pay? Even I don't get that!"

The person I'm quoting is the daughter of a government official and a police official who lives an extremely comfortable life in HCMC. Fucking eat brioche all over again.

[mr friendly guy]

Well Taiwan has rejected Vietnam's compensation package. This is going well.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 4244928384

Taiwan rejected a compensation plan sketched out by Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung for factories burned and looted in the unrest last week, and a Taiwanese steel company threatened not to resume building what would be Southeast Asia's largest steel mill, underscoring the challenge for Vietnam in restoring its allure as a manufacturing center.

"The Vietnamese government must give us a firm and clear assurance that our staff, including our contractors, and our assets will be fully protected in the future," said Lin Hsin-I, chairman of Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, whose site was one of the worst hit. "Otherwise we won't continue to build the plant."

Formosa Ha Tinh Steel is a division of Formosa Plastics Group, Taiwan's leading conglomerate and one of Vietnam's major investors. It has suspended construction on the plant since May 14, at an estimated loss of $10 million for each day construction is delayed. The site was looted and partly burned down during the riots. A contractor building the plant, Metallurgical Corp. of China, said Tuesday that four of its workers died in the riots and more than 100 workers were injured.

[mr friendly guy]

Further update.

1. A Vietnamese protester has self immolated herself in protest against the Chinese oil rig.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... test-china

2. According to Voice of America, Hanoi is no longer getting involved in ramming fights with the Chinese ships. They are now content to scream at them with loudspeakers which is reported as a de-escalation..
http://www.voanews.com/content/source-h ... oContainer

[madd0ct0r]

a caveat on 1. - the woman definetly self-immolated in protest, but it's the state media who are reporting the reason being china.

Hanoi came out with an offical statement this week, declaring the islands were below the 17th parrallel, and thus the official letter from the north vietnamese goverment to china during the war, gifting them the islands is not valid, since north vietnam never owned them in the first place.

This is the first time the hanoi lot have ever,ever publicly recognised south vietnam as an inpdependent, legitimate goverment. Change is in the air.

[madd0ct0r]

Not much new to report, but I thought it would be helpful to link Johnathan London's Blog. He's one of the top english speaking experts on Vietnam in the country.

quote from here: http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=492

Not two days ago the situation in Vietnam was extremely tense, in largely foreboding ways. It still is. Yet the character of those tensions has also shifted dramatically from one of resignation to one of possibility, as it seems apparent (or is it illusory?) that Vietnam is on the verge of fundamental changes, the great irony of which is that the whole process has owed to Beijing’s own short-sighted rapaciousness.

The riots

While a great deal of discussion has been given to the riots of last week there are a substantial amount of questions that remain. While the outside world has been fixated on the images of chaos and destruction, much less attention has been given to Beijing’s apparent effort to harm Vietnam’s image. Here is what, according to my own understanding, we know and do not know about the riots of last week.

The precise causes of the riots are still unknown. While it is true that Vietnamese authorities organized or gave green-lights to protests in more than 20 provinces, it is not the case, as has been widely reported, that the chaos extended to 22 provinces. We do know that violence and chaos were concentrated in Ha Tinh and Binh Duong provinces. We also know that protests around the same time were undertaken peacefully and without incident. The 22 provinces figure was traced to Vietnam’s Minister of Planning and Development, but indicated the number of provinces in which demonstrations were held, not the number of provinces in which there was chaos. I have met the Minister on several occasions a few years ago as part of child-poverty reduction projects and know him to be a man of integrity.
Reports on the number of fatalities has fluctuated from a figure of two (according to Vietnamese authorities) and four (according to Chinese sources). And yet as recently as last week Reuters was still circulating a figure of 20 deaths, a figure that was also recently quoted in the Guardian. In fact, the total number of fatalities is not know.
There are mixed accounts of the causes of the chaos and violence, with unconfirmed reports that payments were made in Binh Duong (where the largest scale chaos was seen), with rumors swirling around. I am only reporting here the ideas circulating in Vietnam: Unconfirmed reports from Ha Tinh report Vietnamese protesting non-violently were provoked by Chinese workers around an industrial site in which relations between the Chinese and Vietnamese were already extremely tense. Hypothesized sources of the payments in Binh Duong have include: (1) The banned Viet Tan Party, (2) Corrupt local authorities and criminal elements along with foreign (read mainland) elements (3) A combination of 2 and an inept response force.
What occurred is consistent both with a mob run amok but also an organized campaign to cause widespread damage and destabilize Vietnam. In such an opaque political environment it is near impossible establish at this point precise causes. To ply in conspiracy theories is as easy as it is dangerous. Again, with respect to these points I am only reporting ideas circulating in Vietnam.

What is certain is that Vietnamese of all brands are shocked and disappointed at the scale and indiscriminate manner of the damage wrought in Binh Duong. The fact that the damage was indiscriminate is difficult to understand. Particularly as Vietnamese (contrary to certain media portrayals) are generally polite and know the difference between Korea, the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

The mood swings

The biggest change in recent days has been the change in the national mood. The most recent event was the Prime Minister’s unprecedented speech in Manila in which he steadfastly stated that Vietnam be not part to a subordinate relationship. But bigger than that is the unprecedented sense, however ephemeral, that Vietnam is making a clear break from China as must boldly embrace both fundamental institutional changes and new friendships and alliances, which Vietnam lacks. Yesterday a woman self-immolated herself in Saigon, adding still further tension.

I don’t have time for any more comments at the moment… more soon. These are very interesting and exciting if occasionally scary times. Best regards to the undercover security agents stationed across the street and in my hotel lobby.

again, I'm not sure this is much different to what I've been reporting, but it's nice to have it confirmed by an expert on the ground. The banned Viet Tan party are the 'reform party' - the political arm of american Vietnamese who'd like to see vietnam remade in the USA's image. I've heard them described as unifying the worst traits of vietnam and america.

[mr friendly guy]

Yet the character of those tensions has also shifted dramatically from one of resignation to one of possibility, as it seems apparent (or is it illusory?) that Vietnam is on the verge of fundamental changes, the great irony of which is that the whole process has owed to Beijing’s own short-sighted rapaciousness.

So what is this fundamental change going to entail, and how is it bad for Beijing? He sort of tries to answer this with the following.

The biggest change in recent days has been the change in the national mood. The most recent event was the Prime Minister’s unprecedented speech in Manila in which he steadfastly stated that Vietnam be not part to a subordinate relationship. But bigger than that is the unprecedented sense, however ephemeral, that Vietnam is making a clear break from China as must boldly embrace both fundamental institutional changes and new friendships and alliances, which Vietnam lacks. Yesterday a woman self-immolated herself in Saigon, adding still further tension.

He mentions Vietnam having a break from China, but I thought they had breaks from each other since the early days of the sino-soviet split. Nor am I quite sure how institutional changes occurred because of the dispute in the South China sea. As for making new friendships, I was unaware Vietnam was unable or unwilling to do that.

[mr friendly guy]

After almost 4 weeks drilling the oil rig has finished its first phase and moved to another location. Also disputed.

I suspect Vietnamese nationalists will claim victory even though it seems China will continue to drill in various parts of the disputed areas while the full damage to Vietnam's economy from protesters who were more interested in looting than, well protesting will become clearer in time, but its clearly done more damage to Vietnam than to China.

[madd0ct0r]

@your previous post (been typing this for a while)

Well, America only lifted the trade embargo a decade or so ago.

Fundamental changes. I'm just spit balling here, no privileged information or contacts. no names.

Break from China:
as I've mentioned upthread, despite the pointless war of 1979, the communist party of Vietnam is pretty firmly in China's pocket. If a chinese company want to build a bauxite mine despite mass local opposition, they do so. The reports from the recent riots suggested there's a lot of chinese living and working in Vietnam, almost to the point of colonisation.

Why would the communist party be so busy denouncing china in public and encouraging investment in private? Money and corruption is the shortest and broadest answer, but a communist China is also a significant deterrent to a popualr uprising. The idea that the party in China would intervene to smash opposition to the party in Vietnam isn't far fetched. It's domino theory all over again (the area got very twitchy during the Arab spring). On the other hand, if China is threatening to invade anyway, that threat has no power. If the party cannot keep China out, or the party is seen to be china's puppet, they loose all credibility in Vietnam and a popular revolt would be nearly inevitable.
Unlike 1979, most of the population is fed up with what is seen as a corrupt, incompetent and bloated parasite on the economy, and there's an entire new generation who've grown up chafing under the party and not remembering the horrors of the American War.

Throw in the Viet Khieu (overseas vietnamese, especially the American and Australian branches, but also the Russian and the French) who would raise a big stink (and lots of cash) if their home countries are seen to be abandoning a democratic revolution in Vietnam to China's mercies. Half these expats have never accepted the communists (and probably expect to go back to being at the top of the heap post revolution., deluded idiots that they are). The other half have and have happily opened companies and traded with vietnam since the nineties, but I doubt they'd lift a finger to save the party. They would probably be the actual ones on top of the heap afterwards.

Finally, just like the first time around, families will be split. Every family had members in the north fighting as communists, and members in the south selling equipment to the americans. This time around every family will have members in the military, police or civil governance and other members working for private companies (and a couple living overseas too). Don't expect the party to pull together. There's factions within it who have openly campaigned for reform, and like gay marriage, they are keeping a close eye to the wind. The police are probably more dangerous then the army. They have a lot to lose and are reasonably cohesive, unlike the army, the bulk of whom are conscripts to poor to bribe their way out.

[mr friendly guy]

I personally doubt China would lift a finger to help the Communist party of Vietnam in a revolution. I am betting they are confident (or perhaps overconfident) they can negotiate with whoever comes out on top in Vietnam and continue doing deals (my bet would be on the party, albeit weakened). Although I am not too sure how likely Vietnam would undergo revolution.

[madd0ct0r]

When I say help, I mean invade and install a puppet regime. or to quote some keyboard warriors 'let's pull a crimea'.

As for the potential for revolution in Vietnam, unless some really radical reforms get pushed through soon, I'd say when, not if. And I'd measure the fuse in months, not years anymore.

[mr friendly guy]

I didn't think it was that...intense in Vietnam. I think China would be making a mistake in doing anything but sealing its borders in such an event, unless the UN authorises a multinational intervention force in. From memory puppet regimes (well one of them anyway) that China installs in Vietnam don't last long against popular uprising. All China would be doing is making it harder to negotiate with the winners. Stick with its policy of non intervention. On another point, I would be curious what ASEAN's response would be, particularly those countries who have territorial disputes with Vietnam.

[madd0ct0r]

As an anecdotal example, I was in a taxi heading back to a site with another vietnamese engineer.
Nice guy, unassuming, quietly competent with his work.

I was joking about how my wife (working at that time in a goverment department) was paid her full wage into her bank account (minus taxes) but then had to pay back 'the department' a certain % in cash for 'operating costs'. The accountant who collected the money was also the building's cleaner. Just another every day absurdity story.

He lost his temper at the punchline. "And this another reason why the country will never get anywhere with the fucking party in charge." We looked at each other. He didn't say another word for the rest of the trip. Later that month a 22 year old self immolated infront of the city hall in protest over land confiscation. That was 4-5 years ago. Things have gotten tenser since.

[Pelranius]

madd0ct0r: How does Viet Tan view Cambodia and Laos, especially their relationship with Vietnam?

Thanks

[madd0ct0r]

I have no fecking idea.
It probably hinges on whether they feel the local goverment is a continuation of the regime installed by vietnam after it deposed pol pot. Since it is, I'd guess they feel a certain sympathy to their brothers in opposition, but AFAIK they are focused purely on reclaiming vietnam first.

Terrible as it sounds, I had to go look up both of the countries on wiki to see whether they were democracies or not. They're not, but being smaller and poorer then even Vietnam no one seems to care much either way. The fact they aren't the geopolitical equivalent of a drunk bar fighter facing down the town's mill owner probably helps there too.