2014 STGOD OOC Commentary Thread 1

[TimothyC]

TJ, as to mistakes analyzing ships, I do not know.

Someone IMed me the answer so I'll tell it here. He took the T212 cost in Euros and used that as a value in USD. In current terms, 371 Euros is over 500 USD (and this is before we adjust the cost of the T212s for inflation).

Also, who is Saint Norman?

Norman Friedman.

For everyone else: He's a major author of many books on ship design, including the totally awesome "Illustrated Design History" series.

[Simon_Jester]

Re: Gill:

What needs to be modernized?

Also: ...No. Trust me. Just... no.

[Beowulf]

Price for two Virginia class subs: 5414 million
Price for one 212a sub: 371 (wikipedia)

Wait.

Anyone else care to guess where Thanas has gone really wrong here?

The really wrong part has been covered. The kinda wrong part is: we don't know what year those prices are for. Inflation makes a difference. Also, making more ships tends to make them cheaper. The USN just ordered 10 more Virginia class subs for $17.6 billion, or $1.76 billion each. The last wrong part is he's comparing apples to pears. Virginia class submarines are not built to perform like a Type 212, only with nuclear power. Virginias don't have to worry about power budget nearly as much, and so they can have much more capable sensor suites (which drives costs higher, but capability higher even faster).

Given that a huge portion of Rheinland's strategic airlift is predisposed towards ferrying troops as quickly as possible to Ostrheinland in case of war I'd imagine airlifting a bataillon of engineers is just SOP.

No surprise there. But it's different for the Umerians- or at least, not airlifting outside their own territory where they can count on certain types of equipment being there. Umeria has no transport aircraft capable of handling a cargo of more than about 30 tons. The "needle-nosed, high-winged" turboprop planes are modeled on the Shaanxi Y-8, and there's another jet transport in the same general performance class as the C-141. So they can't move heavy engineering vehicles by air.

C-141 class is still on the order of 70klbs. A medium bulldozer like a Caterpiller D7 is in the 30klbs class. Can't necessarily do the really big stuff, but could do a decent amount. Probably weigh a bit more after you add in CBR equipment though.

[Thanas]

The really wrong part has been covered. The kinda wrong part is: we don't know what year those prices are for. Inflation makes a difference. Also, making more ships tends to make them cheaper.

Yeah, my mistake in forgetting to convert EUR to $. As for the year, that was 2008 to 2014. I doubt that there was a 33% inflation rate in the USA. So instead of a 1/6 ratio it would have been more like 1/3. Still a large difference in numbers alone.
That being said, cost savings would also have happened had Germany ordered twenty more.

The last wrong part is he's comparing apples to pears. Virginia class submarines are not built to perform like a Type 212, only with nuclear power. Virginias don't have to worry about power budget nearly as much, and so they can have much more capable sensor suites (which drives costs higher, but capability higher even faster).

Yes, agreed.

C-141 class is still on the order of 70klbs. A medium bulldozer like a Caterpiller D7 is in the 30klbs class. Can't necessarily do the really big stuff, but could do a decent amount. Probably weigh a bit more after you add in CBR equipment though.

Who is using C-141s? Umeria?

And because you may have to fight enemy carrier groups and highly competent national navies all over the place, having an 'edge' over an enemy fleet in some key performance parameter of your ships is valuable. Such as, say, being able to keep sailing at top speed for several thousand kilometers without needing to refuel, while an enemy's ships have long since run out of diesel and had to stop and render themselves vulnerable with a rendezvous with a fleet oiler.

OTOH, if you have a much larger fleet than your opponent because he spends about 1/4 more per ship then you can take a bit of time or just station more escorts elsewhere.

[Siege]

I propose that in-game Granadia should start out as hunkering down due to an economic crisis and thus unable to make major international interactions unless utterly necessary, which should reflect the times I am able to post here.

That's alright.

In SDNW6, a peer competitor navy could cut you off from supplies unless you have lots and lots of your own oil, so having ships that can run for years without running out of gas is appealing.

As long as you have enough money you can just buy your supplies from San Dorado and there'd be nothing this peer competitor could do about it, unless they start torpedoing SANDEX ships, which would be a very bad idea for anyone that likes their wartime economy robust and functional.

[Simon_Jester]

C-141 class is still on the order of 70klbs. A medium bulldozer like a Caterpiller D7 is in the 30klbs class. Can't necessarily do the really big stuff, but could do a decent amount. Probably weigh a bit more after you add in CBR equipment though.

Yeah.

Basically, I was trying to think of some realistic limitations of the Umerian force structure, and "is not designed for airlifting heavy supplies" is one of the obvious ones. The latest model of the C-141-equivalent aircraft might be theoretically capable of handling some pretty heavy vehicles, but it was not designed to carry the heavy vehicles actually used by my military, nor were the heavy vehicles used by my military designed for air transport.

C-141 class is still on the order of 70klbs. A medium bulldozer like a Caterpiller D7 is in the 30klbs class. Can't necessarily do the really big stuff, but could do a decent amount. Probably weigh a bit more after you add in CBR equipment though.

Who is using C-141s? Umeria?

That was in one of my more recent OOC thread posts: the Umerians are in fact using a C-141-equivalent aircraft, something broadly comparable in configuration, range, payload, and so on. It is not exactly a C-141 Starlifter, but that's a good reference point for what the plane might be capable of. Then again, it might be a bit less capable. The point is, it's a functional cargo plane, but an old, lightweight design from an era when nobody seriously considered the idea of, say, airlifting tanks around the world.

And because you may have to fight enemy carrier groups and highly competent national navies all over the place, having an 'edge' over an enemy fleet in some key performance parameter of your ships is valuable. Such as, say, being able to keep sailing at top speed for several thousand kilometers without needing to refuel, while an enemy's ships have long since run out of diesel and had to stop and render themselves vulnerable with a rendezvous with a fleet oiler.

OTOH, if you have a much larger fleet than your opponent because he spends about 1/4 more per ship then you can take a bit of time or just station more escorts elsewhere.

While being outnumbered five to four is inconvenient it is far from decisive. Especially if you are able to use superior mobility and ability to engage in long independent cruises to isolate and destroy a small part of the enemy's fleet when it is far from reinforcement.

I think the real takeaway here is that this is an actual, viable choice. Not a case where clearly option A is so much superior to option B that people who take A should always easily defeat people who take B.

In SDNW6, a peer competitor navy could cut you off from supplies unless you have lots and lots of your own oil, so having ships that can run for years without running out of gas is appealing.

As long as you have enough money you can just buy your supplies from San Dorado and there'd be nothing this peer competitor could do about it, unless they start torpedoing SANDEX ships, which would be a very bad idea for anyone that likes their wartime economy robust and functional.

In practice, that is normally going to be true, but if I'm doing procurement for a national military and I'm a really paranoid bastard I can think of a lot of problems with putting all my eggs in that basket. Because I'm designing these ships to fight a purely hypothetical war that might take place ten, twenty, or even thirty years in the future. Who can know what that future might hold?

Maybe SANDEX will be offering to sell me oil, but at such a massive price hike that it cramps my military style to pay it. Maybe my country will have already pissed off SANDEX and I have that problem in addition to being at war with a peer competitor. Maybe my enemy has decided they can get away with pissing off SANDEX. Maybe SANDEX looks at the risk of losing supertankers to any bozo with an antiship missile and an itchy trigger finger, and decides it's not worth it. Maybe my enemy has managed to bribe SANDEX to avoid my ports. Maybe they've struck some kind of deal with SANDEX in the runup to the war. Maybe some disaster will have befallen SANDEX, or San Dorado in general, and they will no longer be the magnificent international scofflaws we know and love to loathe today.

In all these cases, it's at least desirable for my warships to still be able to do their jobs.

People have been worried about ensuring a secure supply of oil for their fleets for literally as long as there have been oil-powered warships. About the only countries that felt secure enough to do this without having constant public arguments were the ones that already had major oil reserves on their home soil (like the US in the 1910s). Even countries that legally owned plenty of oil elsewhere (like Britain in 1910) were a bit reluctant to switch from coal (which Britain has lots of on its land) to oil (which it doesn't).

[Beowulf]

In SDNW6, a peer competitor navy could cut you off from supplies unless you have lots and lots of your own oil, so having ships that can run for years without running out of gas is appealing.

As long as you have enough money you can just buy your supplies from San Dorado and there'd be nothing this peer competitor could do about it, unless they start torpedoing SANDEX ships, which would be a very bad idea for anyone that likes their wartime economy robust and functional.

Running a declared blockade sounds like it could be a very bad idea.

The really wrong part has been covered. The kinda wrong part is: we don't know what year those prices are for. Inflation makes a difference. Also, making more ships tends to make them cheaper.

Yeah, my mistake in forgetting to convert EUR to $. As for the year, that was 2008 to 2014. I doubt that there was a 33% inflation rate in the USA. So instead of a 1/6 ratio it would have been more like 1/3. Still a large difference in numbers alone.
That being said, cost savings would also have happened had Germany ordered twenty more.

Wasn't 33%, but was 10% inflation over those 6 years. I'll grant the economy of scale if Germany would have ordered more.

And because you may have to fight enemy carrier groups and highly competent national navies all over the place, having an 'edge' over an enemy fleet in some key performance parameter of your ships is valuable. Such as, say, being able to keep sailing at top speed for several thousand kilometers without needing to refuel, while an enemy's ships have long since run out of diesel and had to stop and render themselves vulnerable with a rendezvous with a fleet oiler.

OTOH, if you have a much larger fleet than your opponent because he spends about 1/4 more per ship then you can take a bit of time or just station more escorts elsewhere.

Wouldn't be much larger. Be less than a 1/4 larger, because the greater number of ships require more manpower, and manpower can be expensive, and is a continuing cost.

[Thanas]

Oh yeah, true. I really should stop posting while watching F1....

[Siege]

Running a declared blockade sounds like it could be a very bad idea.

Sure. But declaring an economic war with one of the world's largest economic superpowers on top of your existing war sounds like it could be a very bad idea too. And I don't particularly see why anyone in San Dorado should care about blockades randomly declared by countries half the world away. That's an infringement on our right of access to markets.

In other words, it's a game of who blinks first.

[Simon_Jester]

True- but I'd be a complete idiot to plan my whole national strategy for a hypothetical war that hasn't even started yet on the assumption that SANDEX will win the staring match.

As I see it, San Doradan corporations have a lot of different strengths and weaknesses, compared to nations which have comparable total wealth. Among their advantages, they are dispersed geographically. They have a lot more different countries with an interest in their continued survival: they are "too big to fail" in the eyes of many parties in the overall world economy, even if San Dorado itself would reject such a concept out of hand.

But one of their weaknesses can be summed up with a quote from Keynes: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

He based this on the idea that there are a lot of strategies for getting rich by knowingly exploiting an 'irrational' economic situation... BUT that many of them risk you running out of money before the law of averages catches up with you and you get your "the house always wins in the long run" payoff. If your capital reserves are very deep and you think very long-term, you can get away with this kind of thing... but only if your pockets are deeper than your opponent and your patience doesn't run out first.

Now, that's a valid business model- casinos run that way. Their pockets are several orders of magnitude deeper than yours, so they can be really sure that no matter how long your winning streak is, you won't actually "break the bank." The law of averages guarantees their profit margin no matter how lucky you get, realistically.

But (and correct me if I'm wrong) the San Doradan megacorps are ultimately supposed to be profitable, and Bad Things can happen to individuals within the company, or even the company itself, if those profits do not materialize. And while their pockets are no doubt immensely deep for a private organization, and having their fingers in so many different pies makes them relatively diversified... there are limits.

A national government can survive not making money for five or ten years. SANDEX probably couldn't- at the very least, there'd be a lot of pressure on the company to reorganize itself along more profitable lines.

[Flip side of this is, because of how big and old SANDEX is, it's going to be really hard to stop them making money; even if you can cost them money in one place you can't necessarily stop their worldwide profits from being positive]
_____________________

So suppose I am at war with, for example, Klavostan.

[Suppose for the sake of argument that Klavostan has a navy comparable in size to mine]

Klavostan's military strategy begins with a submarine warfare campaign trying to close my ports. In consequence, they sink several SANDEX ships. SANDEX responds by blacklisting Klavostan. Thing is, Klavostan's already a bunch of goddamn commies. Having one of the largest corporations in the world blacklist them will probably actually make their population feel better about the war effort. And their economy is (like most command economies) probably set up to have a lot of redundancy, war stockpiling, and autarky at the expense of efficiency.

So while SANDEX could certainly make its displeasure known against Klavostan, it's not going to be easy. They might have to exert indirect pressure by threatening the trade of third parties that are themselves trading with Klavostan... and that could get unpopular fast, and cuts SANDEX's profit margins quite sharply, and also risks a lot of nations losing interest in SANDEX contracts because they don't want to accept the risk that SANDEX will decide to 'alter the deal' because they've got a political agenda against a particular country.

Essentially, if SANDEX wants to fight a trade war with Klavostan, it's going to hurt Klavostan, but it may not hurt them much unless SANDEX is willing to risk being hurt even more. At least, that's a possibility I have to consider, and in my mind one SANDEX would have to consider.

Given SANDEX's rep as you've described it, they have probably proven in the past that they are actually willing to take the chance- to accept a big, short-term hit in order to make sure that in the long run everyone knows that you Do Not Screw Over SANDEX.

[/me pictures Jules Winfield doing a hit on someone's submarine pens and screaming "DOES SIDNEY HANK LOOK LIKE A BITCH?" and yes I know full well that Sidney Hank is an SDNW2/4 character not an SDNW6 character, you get the idea]

Anyway.

Point is, SANDEX presumably has a history of accepting short-term losses in order to establish their reputation as a company not to be trifled with... but it's very much possible that someone else might be dumb/ballsy/tough enough to be willing to climb into the ring with them.

---

And so, (here's the punch line), while the existence of a company like SANDEX whose shipping is neutral and who no one really wants to tangle with will change the dynamics of blockades, it won't eliminate them outright. It just means that blockades are used less often, except against people who have already pissed off SANDEX.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Here's a thought...if there was a hypothetical war between two players as described by Simon, and a third party torpedoed some of SANDEX's ships in a false-flag operation, what would be the result?

Also, is it even feasible to build dirty bombs with the limitations Tellus has?

[Beowulf]

Here's a thought...if there was a hypothetical war between two players as described by Simon, and a third party torpedoed some of SANDEX's ships in a false-flag operation, what would be the result?

Let's continue Simon's hypothetical: Komradistan is at war with Umeria. Umeria is getting supplies via SANDEX. What stops Umeria from getting SANDEX pissed at Komradistan by torpedoing a SANDEX freighter? Evidence of Umerian involvement is now at the bottom of an ocean, and fairly inaccessible. The crew isn't going to talk ( most of them probably won't have a clue who they shot at, and the rest are probably looking at lengthy jail times if they talk). Worse: Umeria hires a mercenary company to do same, through a cutout. Mercs don't even know who hired them to do the hit. And we have multiple mercenary companies willing to do such a thing in this world.

SANDEX declaration of trade war may result in another multinational deciding to take advantage of SANDEX's weakness too. If you try short-selling, someone with deep pockets may decide to make you eat it, and there's no limit to the potential loss if you fail. Just because George Soros broke the Bank of England doesn't mean that you'll necessarily succeed. And if you're trying other unpopular things at the same time, it's likely someone will do so, just to watch you fail. Heck, doesn't even necessarily need to not like SANDEX. It could just be a competitor looking to get a leg up, and seeing the opportunity.

Realistically, the proper SANDEX response to a blockade declaration is to hire mercs to protect their ships, and then proceed to jackup their prices to the customer to cover the potential loss. Losing profits because you decide to get into a trade war with a country invites an investor revolt, because that harms their returns on investment.

[Simon_Jester]

Here's a thought...if there was a hypothetical war between two players as described by Simon, and a third party torpedoed some of SANDEX's ships in a false-flag operation, what would be the result?

Also, is it even feasible to build dirty bombs with the limitations Tellus has?

The Umerian military doesn't want to take any unnecessary risks. Which is an answer to both your questions.
__________________________________________________

Meanwhile, I do hope Thanas doesn't object to any lines from my most recent post, in particular:

1) My claim that Umeria purchased a number Type 209 submarines from Rheinland in the 1970s (historically, West Germany built about sixty Type 209 boats, all of them for export).
2) Or my decision to write a scene from the viewpoint of two enlisted personnel manning the hydrophones of one of his frigates.
3) Or, and this is important, my assumption that Thanas's carrier and other ships will be approaching the Champa coast (within several hundred kilometers) as of January 4, roughly 2-3 days after the reactor mishap in Champa. If this assumption is in error I will retcon or modify the post.
____________________

The practical upshot is that in the wake of the accident, there is indeed a picket line of (relatively loud) Umerian diesel submarines either already on station well off the Champa coast, or headed in that direction at a pretty good clip (usually around twenty knots).

Any naval task force approaching the Umerian coast will know they're there, unless all their sonar operators have inexplicably gone deaf.

I also wish to confirm that a Umerian submarine captain, who might know and is certainly familiar with Umerian submarine warfare doctrine but might be wrong, thinks there should be a fairly strong concentration of other Umerian submarines rather closer to the Champa coast.

The reason for all this is, of course, that there are about 3-4 carrier battlegroups, plus assorted surface action and amphibious task forces, headed for a region of the sea that is pretty close to the northern coast of Umeria. While the Umerian government believes that all their intentions are honorable and has no desire to interfere in their operations, they do take it seriously when they expect such an assembly of force so close to their shoreline. Thus, the Umerian Navy wants to make sure there's a fleet presence in the area in case anything nasty happens, and to make sure their interests are respected by the various foreign warships coming to visit.

Umerian surface warships are probably headed for the area, as well. I'll get more into that later perhaps.

If anyone has more questions about the details, tone, or content of my post I would be happy to enlighten them, though I'd prefer not to reveal classified details about my attack submarines.

[Thanas]

Simon, I got no objections whatsoever, especially because Rheinland sells to anybody who can pay. Usually a sub or a DD would be on ASW duty (as most of the frigates are primarily AA) though the subs probably would be absent in such a scenario as approaching the coast (after all, not here to wreck face) and the task force probably is clumped together to avoid any misunderstandings and probably has no ASW craft in the air either to avoid pissing off the Champans. So having a frigate hear them makes sense and I don't think you should change anything.

(OOC: Schultz probably is a completely inept sonar operator, after all, he probably hears nothing.)

Though I don't know either how maddoctor would use the aid provided to him.

EDIT: The German used is also correct. Bravo.

[Simon_Jester]

[bows]

Danke. I took three semesters of German in college, and I can usually compose correctly to this day if I consult references.

As to the rest:

Schultz may be half-deaf, but he knows his software analysis and frequency profiles. He is objectively correct on the observable facts. His speculation as to the reasons I will neither confirm nor deny, but the fact remains: the Umerian 209s were altered in a native yard in the 1980s, and came out quite a bit louder and clunkier than they went in. The refits done in the first decade of the 21st century did very little to reduce the noise levels.

Umerian engineers are only so good. Sometimes they strike gold; sometimes they strike guano.

As to the ship roles, well, I had already decided that in my navy the frigates are the ASW platforms and the destroyers are the SAM platforms, rather than the other way around, and I guess I was projecting. It wouldn't bother me a bit to switch around to one of the destroyer names.

[Thanas]

Nah, don't bother. We clumped together and sent subs aways as to not bother the Champans too much. We figure the name of the ships were threats enough.

[Thanas]

So the huge foreign policy post is up, addressing all nations and a few in particular. To be followed by equally important post on (IC) January 5th, to outline the domestic challenges faced by Rheinland.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Part II of Orion's terrorist situation is now up, as well as reactions to Fischer's speech, since things always happen at the same damn time, don't they?

[RogueIce]

Ok, so yeah, we'll send a Hospital Ship to Orion. Because we know what's it like to be hit by terrorists and we'll gladly lend our aid to you.

The Romulan Republic, we're asking if we can make a friendly port visit! To, you know, commemorate our mutual victory against the Apelians all those years ago and stuff. Plus, it keeps my naval assets close at hand to Orion - if they're needed - without seeming to be too forward about it.

Also Eternal_Freedom, when/if would it be known to people outside your security services that this was an AVALANCHE splinter group? Because that will set the tone for my story post (probably made at some point towards the end of the day on the 4th, Midgar time). Because if we know it's an AVALANCHE off-shoot that'll change things from 'general feelings of helping out another nation with a history of eco-terrorism, which we're sympathetic to' into a 'God damn, unknown AVALANCHE splinter groups out in the world, we'd better start some mutual investigations and other responses with the Orions' reaction.

If it's not publically known until after the 4th, well the latter reaction will still happen, just at a later date obviously. I'd just like to know how it'd stand on the 4th so I can write it appropriately. I just don't feel like making a fluff post now, but under the idea that "it's not official until it's in the IC thread" I made the summary, and I'll edit in the story bits later.

[The Romulan Republic]

Reply sent. Corona's uneasy about it due to their issues with Orion, but not outright refusing the request.

[Eternal_Freedom]

RogueIce, your offer of assistance is gladly accepted. As for when others would know, well, we wouldn't tell everyone publicly until the bastards are tried and executed, but I did say we would pass on relevant information to other nations....so you may consider yourself informed, via some unofficial back channel source at present, with "official" confirmation to follow.

[The Romulan Republic]

Would Corona be one of the countries informed?

[Eternal_Freedom]

I'm not sure as yet. We will be informing Shinra, since they are already invovled with AVALANCHE. If we develop information about other splinter groups operating in your area, we'll pass that along, but at present we have no such information (read: if you want to go with that storyline, PM me and I'll "find some new intelligence" )

Oh, and unless anyone else really wants it, Orion is (indirectly) claiming credit for the Warhammer tabletop games, since it's a diversion the King and his family enjoys.

[The Romulan Republic]

Corona's terrorist problems mainly involve pro-secession religious nuts, though I suppose their could be some other terrorists.

Edit: AVALANCHE's involvement and greater support for Orion by Shinra would cause problems for Shinra's plan to send ships to Corona. Corona won't want their ports to be used as a staging area to provide military support to Orion.

[RogueIce]

Corona's terrorist problems mainly involve pro-secession religious nuts, though I suppose their could be some other terrorists.

Edit: AVALANCHE's involvement and greater support for Orion by Shinra would cause problems for Shinra's plan to send ships to Corona. Corona won't want their ports to be used as a staging area to provide military support to Orion.

They wouldn't be. The port visit - while a genuine port visit - is mainly so that they're in the general area, should the need for them arise.

Which, since we know it's AVALANCHE now, is quite likely. But if we did conduct operations, we'd certainly operate out of Orion's ports. It's the least they could do if we're going to be bombing people and/or sending in the Marines on their (and our, to an extent) behalf.