Plans for Nicaraguan canal

[Welf]

I don't think you should invest in Nicaragua the next 30 years. This sounds like a massive economic disaster in the short and middle run. Long term it may improve the situation for Nicaragua.

First, if a politician says it costs 40 bn it will cost usually at least the double. It's possible to estimate the costs, but as soon as a project is not commonly accepted the numbers will be distorted to convince the public.
Nicaragua currently has a economy of 30 bn USD, so they can't just get the money from the bond market, or only to very high rates. So they will have to pay interest of at least 3 bn, probably double, which would be 10-20% of GDP. Maybe private investors will advance that money, but only to a high price.
And if they build this, they will pour dozens of billions of dollar into the tiny local economy. This will lead to inflation and an economy dependent on one project. The hangover and recession after the boom is guaranteed.

[Sea Skimmer]

Nicaragua is relying completely on foreign investment for this project in exchange for 100 year concession on toll revenue. If they've really attracted enough investment or not to justify starting construction is unclear, but China has an awful lot of capital doing nothing right now. However the contract signed so far for the concession also provides several other concessions for tax free port development and a railroad which can be built independently of the canal. The concession would end with Nicaragua taking full control of the canal, but they also don't get a dime until it operates, and almost no revenue for decades.

So the canal may never happen and the entire thing may be a scam just to get those much smaller projects tax free while the Nicaraguan government gets a political football for the next election. Who knows.

[Broomstick]

Nicaragua is relying completely on foreign investment for this project in exchange for 100 year concession on toll revenue. If they've really attracted enough investment or not to justify starting construction is unclear, but China has an awful lot of capital doing nothing right now. However the contract signed so far for the concession also provides several other concessions for tax free port development and a railroad which can be built independently of the canal. The concession would end with Nicaragua taking full control of the canal, but they also don't get a dime until it operates, and almost no revenue for decades.

How does that compare with the original US/Panama agreement for the existing canal? Panama sure as hell couldn't pay for it. In fact, if I recall weren't Columbia and France involved with failed attempts prior to the US getting involved? It was finally handed over completely to Panama in the late 1990's, but prior to that it was either jointly run by the two nations (from the late 1970's) or completely controlled by the US.

There have been ways to finance such projects for a long time now. It could be done, if there's sufficient interest.

[Sea Skimmer]

The Panama canal Zone was US territory granted in perpetually to the United States, though Panamanians had the right of free movement within and across it. The Panama canal was built in no small part for US national defense so that one navy could cover two oceans, and some of the heaviest fortifications on the planet were put in at each end for its defense. Panama got no share of the canal toll revenue, but under US control the canal was only priced to fund its own operations. It was open to all traffic in time of peace billed by the ton.

Panama didn't like the treaty, but Panama was only able to be an independent country from Columbia by accepting US protection that came with said treaty, forcing Columbia to simply fold rather then fight the US. Panama had had uprisings against Columbian rule multiple times leading up to this and US troops had landed in some of those to keep order on the railroad but never maintained an occupation for any great length of time. The US tried to get Columbia to grant it a concession during this, Columbia refused, so the US just supported Panamanian independence to get it instead.

The original French attempt was a purely commercial venture on the lines of the present Nicaraguan canal. It was funded by mass public subscription in France and Europe. It also had no chance of ever working because the French had assumed they could dig the canal through a tropical mountain range with 45 degree slopes. This was not going to work, and so the amount of evacuation needed was underestimated by a collossal sum, nor did the French ever figure out how to deal with flood water from existing rivers. The French effort collapsed when it ran out of money and nobody in the world was willing to lend it more. The amount raised was pretty damn high as it was. When the company collapsed the US government bought up the remaining assets.

The US congress actually favored and formally approved a Nicaraguan canal project to be built by US government funds because its much more feasible as a sea level project, even though the route is longer. However at the last minute the project was shifted to Panama to exploit the chance to get the sovereign concession and take advantage of the existing French effort which had moved a fair bit of earth, even if it was nowhere near its goal. In the end about half the French earth moving proved to be actually useful to the US lock based canal.

[Adam Reynolds]

In the random department, would it be possible to design a conventional carrier to fit through the Panama canal? Obviously the VTOL carriers can fit as the Wasp-class has retractable elevators are for exactly this reason.

Though I would assume that any military for which this was a sufficient strategic priority would simply widen the canal.

[Simon_Jester]

You could build a conventional carrier that would fit through the Panama Canal... but it'd be the size of a WWII carrier or something. Angled flight decks make the ship a lot wider, and width is an obstacle in the canal. A ship with a straight flight deck (runway parallel to the long axis of the ship) would not be so wide, but it'd be longer, and there's a length limit too.

As in, a Nimitz-class carrier is 1092 feet long; Panamax is 950 feet. Its draft is 37 to 41 feet, which is close to the deepest the canal can accomodate. Even at the waterline (not including the angled deck) a Nimitz is 132 feet wide... and Panamax is 106 feet.

So to make a carrier pass through the Panama Canal it would have to be a lot smaller than a Nimitz, which would in turn mean making it less capable.

[Elheru Aran]

IIRC the biggest ships to ever go through the Canal were the Iowa-class battleships, and they only had a scant few feet of clearance all around. There may have been tankers or merchant ships with greater tonnage since then, though.

But yes, if you want a carrier to go through the Canal, it won't be a *super* carrier along the lines of the Nimitz. It'd be closer to the lines of something built on an Iowa hull, which were pretty big in their own right but not Nimitz big. It could still do plenty, no worries-- but it'd be closer to a helicopter carrier than an aircraft carrier.

Expanding the canal isn't going to happen. Would have to drain it and rebuild the locks. Would shut down the canal for a pretty long time.

[TimothyC]

Expanding the canal isn't going to happen. Would have to drain it and rebuild the locks. Would shut down the canal for a pretty long time.

Or, you just build a third set of locks, like what is happening now. The New Panamax dimensions are 1200ft * 161ft * 50ft. The 190ft air draft will remain the same.

[Simon_Jester]

That... could probably accomodate a respectable aircraft carrier, as long as it didn't have an angled flight deck amping up the width (the Nimitz-class is 134 feet wide at the waterline, but 252 feet wide at the deck).

[Elheru Aran]

That... could probably accomodate a respectable aircraft carrier, as long as it didn't have an angled flight deck amping up the width (the Nimitz-class is 134 feet wide at the waterline, but 252 feet wide at the deck).

What's the depth between the waterline and the top of the canal's side? Though I suppose that changes as water flows between the locks...

[Sea Skimmer]

IIRC the biggest ships to ever go through the Canal were the Iowa-class battleships, and they only had a scant few feet of clearance all around. There may have been tankers or merchant ships with greater tonnage since then, though.

The Iowa class was only allowed through with special precautions because while designed to provide 1ft of beam on each side, it was actually more like half a foot as built. Tankers with much greater tonnages and obeying the normal 108ft beam restriction have gone through on a regular basis. The maximum actual displacement of ships able to transit is around 80,000.

Or, you just build a third set of locks, like what is happening now. The New Panamax dimensions are 1200ft * 161ft * 50ft. The 190ft air draft will remain the same.

The Culebra cut is also getting widened and that does involve some delays in traffic for when they fire off blasting shots, but its minutes in each day. Unfortunate though and a boon to the concept of Nicaraguan canal having a chance in hell of being built, that Panama can never be realistically enlarged further then the present project. It simply doesn't have enough water storage capacity even with raising the level of Gatum lake in the final stage of construction. Heavy enough use of the third set of locks may actually limit total transits through the canal system as it is, that limitation is simply being accepted since the enlarged locks will command a higher toll.