Ukraine War Thread

[Irbis]

Reports about the conditions in Ukraine's armed forces are not great. This is probably the first conflict where the government has had to crowd fund for equipping its troops.

Speaking of which. 2 things on Ukraine from recent days, Polish press:

A) Massive arms and combat material smuggling and half-smuggling into Ukraine recently. Especially helmets and combat vests - one person can carry one during border crossing, Ukrainians evade it by handing the stuff to random people to carry through or walking through border dozens of times per day.

Now, investigative reporter could ask, why the hell Ukrainian state doesn't buy them en masse through proper channels, is it so failed now they don't have money, or do the arms go to someone else, say the right winger militia that totally doesn't exist? Yet, no one asks that. Why bother? Not like our border might be in danger from gangs armed with looted army guns, can it?

Especially disgusting was case of large transport that was stopped on border by customs. Not even whole transport - just helmets and vests decreed by NATO laws to be full military grade ones, needing permits. Others were let through. Our russophobic press didn't congratulate border guards on upholding both Polish and pact law, though, they digged up token Maidan girl with ready quote: "I thought Poles were our friends, why you help Putin?" and started howling how we hurt allied country

B) Russia slapped Poland with counter-sanctions, at first just for Polish apples. Polish russophobes responded with "Eat apple to kick Putin", but we'd need to basically double internal consumption to make any dent in deficit. Since we sell stuff worth close to a billion per year, this is kind of serious.

Of course, states that can capitalize on it by selling their own products to Russia, states rhyming with "ermany", "olland", "ance", "taly" and "itain" didn't do anything to protest save for a few insincere words, a few crocodile tears, and a few snicks as they walked to bank. Like they always do when Russia bans some Polish goods after barking from local loonies. Why I am not surprised? We'll sanction Russia to last Złoty, eh, comrades?

[Thanas]

Oh please, as if the German economy was not hit sanctions as well. Estimates are that we will lose several thousand jobs, possibly up to 250.000 from it.

[Siege]

Also there is no country called 'Holland' in the EU.

[Purple]

Oh please, as if the German economy was not hit sanctions as well. Estimates are that we will lose several thousand jobs, possibly up to 250.000 from it.

So why on earth are you imposing those sanctions than?
That's kind of like having your child misbehave so you go and spank your self.

[Thanas]

Because
a) we think it might hurt them too
b) we can afford it
c) It is something, which is better than doing nothing in the minds of the politicians
d) It is a better alternative than telling the Bundeswehr to get ready because we are marching eastwards again

[K. A. Pital]

Also there is no country called 'Holland' in the EU.

I think that wasn't intended; it's a common error for those that have a Slavic linguistic background. In Slavic languages, the name of the country either was Holland, or still is. In Russia, it was Holland because that's the only part where Peter the Great was, and he misindentified the region with the country - a linguistic error that was later fixed in the XX century (not sure if the Netherlands specifically asked for it).

In Poland, however, the country is still called Holandia, if memory serves me right.

[Purple]

Because
a) we think it might hurt them too
b) we can afford it
c) It is something, which is better than doing nothing in the minds of the politicians
d) It is a better alternative than telling the Bundeswehr to get ready because we are marching eastwards again

If you do not mind me saying this openly only A makes any sort of sense to me. B is just plain stupid, and if you do not believe it just ask some of the people whose jobs will be lost over it. C is again stupid and relies on the rather foolish notion that something is always better than nothing regardless of what that something is. And as for D, I will be honest. Anyone who thinks that Germany or anyone else should go to war with Russia over this, or any other similar minor conflict should be locked up in an asylum. Seriously, it's the kind of idiocy that almost lead to WW3 over a small island in central america.

[Thanas]

Your stupid interpretation is missing the point. The main question is how you hurt Russia at this point. If not the economy, then the military is the other only option, unless you care to point out another one everybody in the world must have missed until now?

[Purple]

Your stupid interpretation is missing the point. The main question is how you hurt Russia at this point. If not the economy, then the military is the other only option, unless you care to point out another one everybody in the world must have missed until now?

How about this one. You don't. Instead you wisely conclude that the plight of Ukrainians, regardless of what camp they are in is not worth a confrontation, diplomatic or otherwise. And is definitively not worth sacrificing your own economic prosperity for. Let the Ukrainians sort their own problems out by killing each other until they get bored of it. And if Putin wants in on the quagmire let him have it.

[Thanas]

So in short, let the Russians do whatever they want? Yeah, good job there.

[Vympel]

So in short, let the Russians do whatever they want? Yeah, good job there.

You do realise they're doing whatever they want anyway, right? Sanctions are not a policy. They are what you do when you don't have a policy. They have an abominable record of changing a state's behavior.

[Thanas]

Well, it all depends on if a state is willing to pay the costs. Russia right now seems to be willing to do so for now - but at the same time they have not escalated as fast as they could, which might be a result of the resistance from the west - or the sanctions, or both etc. Nobody knows.

[Channel72]

Is there any documented case of sanctions actually achieving the intended result? US sanctions on Iraq basically resulted in over half a million Iraqis dead or living in squalor, while Saddam and his cronies continued to drive Mercedes and live in luxury. The same sort of shit happened in Cuba. Sanctions seem to hurt regular citizens the most, while the people in power basically just off-load the cost of sanctions to the citizenry, while continuing to enjoy their existing privileges and comforts.

[Esquire]

They're the result of a weird kind of double-think the US, and Western powers generally seem to enjoy - it's simultaneously true that the population of, say, Russia is poor and oppressed by the evil Putin and has no chance of overthrowing him, and that we should punish the whole country for the sins of its leaders. But it plays well with domestic audiences, or at least those whose industries aren't being gutted to score PR points.

[K. A. Pital]

Techically sanctions can work (blockade their economy and wait until the state collapses violently, bringing new people to power). However, it takes a lot more than this to accomplish. Stop buying Russian gas and oil for immediate collapse.

[Purple]

Is there any documented case of sanctions actually achieving the intended result? US sanctions on Iraq basically resulted in over half a million Iraqis dead or living in squalor, while Saddam and his cronies continued to drive Mercedes and live in luxury. The same sort of shit happened in Cuba. Sanctions seem to hurt regular citizens the most, while the people in power basically just off-load the cost of sanctions to the citizenry, while continuing to enjoy their existing privileges and comforts.

The issue with sanctions is that the only society against which they have a reasonable chance of working as intended (unless your intent is to simply torture the civilian population out of spite) is a western liberal democracy. Since that is the only system where a disgruntled population can reasonably easily replace the government that provoked them. Against any other system you are basically taking a nation whose people are weak and disempowered already and simply making them even weaker and less powerful to change things. And at that point, the only way you will get what you want is if you impose sanctions that are so draconic that the population basically goes into full on starvation and food riots.

And I personally find such a blockade to be deeply immoral.

[K. A. Pital]

Russia could make use of a good old revolution, since the oligarchs are scum. Too bad it will be coupled with massive human suffering, too.

[Thanas]

Is there any documented case of sanctions actually achieving the intended result? US sanctions on Iraq basically resulted in over half a million Iraqis dead or living in squalor, while Saddam and his cronies continued to drive Mercedes and live in luxury. The same sort of shit happened in Cuba. Sanctions seem to hurt regular citizens the most, while the people in power basically just off-load the cost of sanctions to the citizenry, while continuing to enjoy their existing privileges and comforts.

Take note that the west tried to hit Putin and the oligarchs first. Then they hit their business interests. There are no sanctions that try to directly hit the Russian populace or interfere with the import of food and medicine like in Iraq.

[Mange]

It's interesting to see how Russia responds to calls for increased autonomy for regions within Russia compared to how they tell Ukraine to act... BBC News: BBC rebuffs Russian state complaint over Siberia march

In addition to Siberia, there's similar calls coming from Kaliningrad (where there has even been talk about a "People's Republic").

[K. A. Pital]

Well, considering both regimes are 1:1 cleptocratic oligarchic copies, Russian politicians know full well that Russia is next after Ukraine to be dismembered mercilessly. Heh.

[Vympel]

Well, it all depends on if a state is willing to pay the costs. Russia right now seems to be willing to do so for now - but at the same time they have not escalated as fast as they could, which might be a result of the resistance from the west - or the sanctions, or both etc. Nobody knows.

At this stage its not clear if Putin is just biding his time for the siege of Donetsk and Luhansk to turn into a full blown humanitarian disaster which will give him a stronger pretext to intervene (seems unlikely - no pretext will be believed), or if he's hoping said disaster will accelerate calls from other countries for a cease fire and some sort of settlement. In any event, for sanctions to work there needs to be carrot, as well as stick. If he doesn't think he'll get anything apart from an end to sanctions, he won't have any interest in changing course.

Well, considering both regimes are 1:1 cleptocratic oligarchic copies, Russian politicians know full well that Russia is next after Ukraine to be dismembered mercilessly. Heh.

I think certain parties (i.e. elites) would much rather just quietly replace Putin with a more malleable ruler - like Yeltsin - and otherwise keep things as they are - same as Ukraine.

As to calls for greater Federalisation in Russia, it was Putin who changed the system so regional governors were no longer elected by the regions themselves - and changed it again when Medvedev rolled it back after he was re-elected President. It could always go back again, but not in circumstances where Putin's approval ratings are 87% or whatever they are right now, I don't think.

[mr friendly guy]

They're the result of a weird kind of double-think the US, and Western powers generally seem to enjoy - it's simultaneously true that the population of, say, Russia is poor and oppressed by the evil Putin and has no chance of overthrowing him, and that we should punish the whole country for the sins of its leaders. But it plays well with domestic audiences, or at least those whose industries aren't being gutted to score PR points.

The way I look at this is that these people are not interested in helping the "oppressed" people of <insert country we don't like here>, they are interested in limiting the power of a geopolitical rival. It just sounds better to say the former.

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In other news, Russia is retaliating with its own sanctions. Australia or rather Malcolm Turnbull whines even though we are quite happy to sanction Russia. The sense of ethnocentricity is vomit inducing. Its like we can do things to hurt others, and when they retaliate (a very human thing to do) its like they are doing something wrong.

[montypython]

They're the result of a weird kind of double-think the US, and Western powers generally seem to enjoy - it's simultaneously true that the population of, say, Russia is poor and oppressed by the evil Putin and has no chance of overthrowing him, and that we should punish the whole country for the sins of its leaders. But it plays well with domestic audiences, or at least those whose industries aren't being gutted to score PR points.

The way I look at this is that these people are not interested in helping the "oppressed" people of <insert country we don't like here>, they are interested in limiting the power of a geopolitical rival. It just sounds better to say the former.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In other news, Russia is retaliating with its own sanctions. Australia or rather Malcolm Turnbull whines even though we are quite happy to sanction Russia. The sense of ethnocentricity is vomit inducing. Its like we can do things to hurt others, and when they retaliate (a very human thing to do) its like they are doing something wrong.

It's this very thing that I've gotten the feeling that WWIII will be inevitable, simply because the US and its associates just don't care about anybody else except their own power, and any nation (whether it be Russia, China, India etc.) that can possibly threaten their stranglehold on global power is to be crushed. Mutual understanding simply can't exist in that type of environment.

[Thanas]

How the heck is this wanting Russia to get crushed? Last I checked the USA did not invade a sovereign nation to get rid of Russian influence.

[Purple]

How the heck is this wanting Russia to get crushed? Last I checked the USA did not invade a sovereign nation to get rid of Russian influence.

Where did that come from?