Ukraine War Thread

[Simon_Jester]

It's this very thing that I've gotten the feeling that WWIII will be inevitable, simply because the US and its associates just don't care about anybody else except their own power, and any nation (whether it be Russia, China, India etc.) that can possibly threaten their stranglehold on global power is to be crushed. Mutual understanding simply can't exist in that type of environment.

The empirical fact that both China and India are steadily growing in power and significance on the world stage tends to argue against that view.

[Thanas]

How the heck is this wanting Russia to get crushed? Last I checked the USA did not invade a sovereign nation to get rid of Russian influence.

Where did that come from?

Can you read the post directly above the one you are replying to?

[montypython]

It's this very thing that I've gotten the feeling that WWIII will be inevitable, simply because the US and its associates just don't care about anybody else except their own power, and any nation (whether it be Russia, China, India etc.) that can possibly threaten their stranglehold on global power is to be crushed. Mutual understanding simply can't exist in that type of environment.

The empirical fact that both China and India are steadily growing in power and significance on the world stage tends to argue against that view.

I'd say it's more in spite of US intentions and actions than because of, that China and India are managing to improve to where they are presently, particularly given how the US-orchestrated global economic order essentially enables it to push costs onto other countries vis a vis the petrodollar for instance.

[Purple]

How the heck is this wanting Russia to get crushed? Last I checked the USA did not invade a sovereign nation to get rid of Russian influence.

Where did that come from?

Can you read the post directly above the one you are replying to?

I did. And I still do not understand why you suddenly jumped strait toward mentioning a military action.

[cosmicalstorm]

Not sure if trustworthy but interesting. What do you say Stas?

Something out of the ordinary happened today, on the 7th of August, in Kremlin. In any case, there haven’t been so many high-ranking power structure officers fired since the times of Stalin. This time, eighteen of the highest officers lost their jobs, including: military, heads of the Ministry of the Interior, Federal Drug Control Service, and the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation. The corresponding decrees were signed by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin.

It is interesting to note that Putin’s press service has kept delicately quiet about the mass firing of officer personnel that took place today. The only sources so far that confirm the aforementioned fact are the following decrees by Vladimir Putin: “Changes in Personnel in the Investigative Committee” and “Changes in Personnel in Federal Public Authorities”, published on Kremlin’s official website.

The list of sacked “siloviki” is more than interesting, in and of itself. It starts with Colonel General Vladimir Rushailo, whose last position is not named in the documents. He is known for being the Minister of Interior in Boris Yeltsin’s administration, and for having led the first Chechen War and later anti-terrorist activities in the Northern Caucasus. This is indirectly confirmed by Major General Vasiliy Fedoruk also being on the list, who was fired from the position of Deputy Commander of Forces responsible for anti-terrorist operations in the Northern Caucasus region. Putin also fired Colonel of Militia Vladimir Didenko, who held the position of Head of the Chief Directorate of Counteraction to Extremism of MOI of the Russian Federation. Apart from those three, many other highest-ranking officers from different regions were let go, including, which is rather juicy, Yuri Lazarev, Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of the Federal Drug Control Service in Putin’s native city of Saint-Petersburg.

Considering the Investigative Committee, officials from many regions were affected. Eleven heads of regional offices and their deputies were fired, including Major General of Justice Andrei Stryzhakov, who worked as the Deputy Chief of the Office of the Investigative Committee in the Southern Federal District – the district with its central city of Rostov-na-Donu, which is famous for housing the main headquarters of Russian forces responsible for undeclared military action against Ukraine and sending terrorist forces there.

If one is to estimate the scale of 18 firings of generals and colonels today, a picture of some epic failure arises. Which failure it is remains a mystery, however this morning, sources in several regional offices of the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company reported independently of each other that they received an urgent dispatch from Moscow. This dispatch demanded to air an urgent address of Vladimir Putin to the people of Russia at 19:30 (Moscow time). The address was cancelled later, and Dmitry Peskov, the press-secretary of the President of Russia, officially stated that it wasn’t even planned.

What exactly happened today in Kremlin? Why were so many generals and colonels fired? What was Putin going to tell the people of Russia before he changed his mind? Those questions still remain a mystery.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/08/p ... -officers/

[mr friendly guy]

It's this very thing that I've gotten the feeling that WWIII will be inevitable, simply because the US and its associates just don't care about anybody else except their own power, and any nation (whether it be Russia, China, India etc.) that can possibly threaten their stranglehold on global power is to be crushed. Mutual understanding simply can't exist in that type of environment.

The empirical fact that both China and India are steadily growing in power and significance on the world stage tends to argue against that view.

China growing stronger is one thing, China growing strong enough to surpass the US in important metrics, for example GDP and economic influence is another.

One can already see in this very thread people and articles posted talking about China even though this is about Ukraine and Russia. They literally try and shoehorn the issue in Europe with China. This isn't just confined to just a bunch of whackos on youtube, you can see this type of thinking in various opinion pieces published in respected media outlets. During these rants you usually hear the magic words "the status quo" which is code speak for US dominance.

Now lets consider also US double standards. When US allies do it, its ok. Lets say Japan declares an ADIZ, totally cool. Heck the US has one too. China declares an ADIZ and Joe Biden starts sprouting shit about "unilaterally changing the status quo" and the totally non bias Western Media goes apeshit. Lets put this in perspective. If the US was interested in FAIR coexistence, what is good for the US should be ok for China as well. But its not. Its not like China is asking for special treatment in the above example.

I would argue that the US (or more specifically those in the US who want to limit China) can't do too much to China without hurting itself badly in the process even if they do achieve some sort of "victory". Lots of reasons for that including factions in the US who want to trade with China and don't care if it strengthens them. Thus China can continue to "grow in power and significance" despite hostility from certain powerful factions in the US.

[K. A. Pital]

Not sure if trustworthy but interesting. What do you say Stas?

That happened before as well. Rumors about a 'Putin address' have been circulating since April, when the war started. However, nothing happened. The hardliners probably don't have enough weight to sway his opinion. The firings may be related to the 'anti-corruption' program (which is also a way to elimiate 'weak links' in the power structure built by Putin).

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5iPCQzuFKo

Russian media is suggesting things Russia might do in retaliation for sanctions including with interfering with flights from Asia to Europe which use Russian airspace. In economic terms this could get nasty.

[Edi]

If they ban overflights by foreign companies, Finnair is going to be fucked.

All the news about the counter-sanctions here has been really fucking irritating me, because so much of it has been of the "Oh woe is us why-oh-why is Russia doing this waaaahh!" when it is fucking obvious that they have to retaliate somehow. The problem with sanctions is that they can be imposed both ways and as part of the EU, we really don't have much moral high ground to protest. Yeah, it may hurt. Them's the facts.

[fgalkin]

Meanwhile, on Maidan....

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine ... 59649.html

Protesters have resisted the most serious attempt yet to clean up Maidan, or Independence Square, since the EuroMaidan Revolution ended with the ouster of the corrupt President Viktor Yanukovych on Feb. 22. Dozens of remaining demonstrators – perhaps more than 100 – set tires on fire on Kyiv's main square to protest the government's attempt to free the city's main road for traffic.

The square still has a tent city left over from the revolution. However, the protesters' space has gradually diminished as city officials have attempted to return the area to normalcy since the May 25 election of Petro Poroshenko as president and Vitali Klitschko as mayor. Many are who remain there are suspected of occupying the area after the popular uprising ended in late February.

A part of Khreshchatyk Street was cleared off last month.

Klitschko is taking a harder line regarding the protesters and called on the city's police chief to defend the residents and communal worker. “The things that are going on there last time are criminal. Attacks, shootouts, explosions and taking over of businesses,” he was quoted as saying, according to his Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform website. “This is a total desecration of the Maidan to which the Ukrainian came in autumn.”

Klitscho added that city authorities had long negotiations with people living in tents on Maidan in an attempt to persuade them to leave. “But these people were speaking with the stance – bring us refrigerators, WCs or something else. Is this a fight for democracy?” Klitschko said. “When there is a war on the east, where there is a need to restore the country and work some people privatized Kyiv’s center and is dictation their conditions. Moreover the major demands with which Maidan stood have been fulfilled.”

Kyiv police reported that when clearing the street, officers confiscated “guns, grenades, knives and Molotov cocktails” from the protesters, who sang patriotic songs as some threw Molotov cocktails. “Fighters of the special unit and the police officers received various wounds during the clashes mostly being hit by parts of pavement.”

A Kyiv Post reporter also saw young men carrying grenades, knives, Molotov cocktails, and one armed with an automatic rifle standing on the second-floor window sill of the central post office.

Some 300 municipal workers arrived on Maidan around 9:30 a.m. on Aug. 7, backed by cranes, to clean up the rest of the street. The workers started on both sides of Khreshchatyk – European Square closer to the Dnipro River as well as the other side.

The Kyiv Post saw volunteer Kyiv-1 and Kyiv-2 military battalions, whom the protesters called "Klitschko's people," accompanying the city workers. They are subordinated to the Interior Ministry and are comprised mostly from former EuroMaidan self-defense units. Kyiv-2 battalion later retreated to Prorizna Street and is currently awaiting orders. They do not give official comments, but unofficially they say their job is to peacefully clear Khreshchatyk Street for traffic.

After the attempt to clear the place began on Aug. 7, protesters started throwing cobblestones at the volunteer battalions and municipal workers and setting tires on fire, using the same defense tactics that were used during the revolution. Maidan Nezalezhnosti metro station was forced to close for exit because of fires and fights, a company spokesman said. Several tents that once stood near the intersection of Prorizna and Khreshchatyk Streets were set on fire as well.

Volodymyr, a masked 27-year-old protester from Volyn in western Ukraine who did not give his last name, said he set one of the tents on fire to prevent the communal workers from "accessing our documents and personal belongings. was ready to go to the east (of Ukraine) in several days, and I don't know if I will now do it when such things are happening," he said.

Ivan Lyukiv, a Maidan self-defense member said: "We will wait for Klitschko and (President Petro) Poroshenko to negotiate. They are the only two people we will negotiate with. We won't have any discussions with the police or Kyiv-2 battalions who started the cleanup today."

After coming across fierce resistance by the protesters, communal workers called the police. At least one protester was arrested, visible through the live feed set up by one of the activists.

A man who only identified himself as Volodymyr, one of the communal workers, said that his job was to clean up the city. "I don't know what there people stand for. The Maidan that started in autumn achieved its goals. Kyiv is a European city and now it's all in a mess. But the bunch of homeless people who are left here do not understand that," he said.

The ongoing presence of protesters on Maidan is a source of deepening controversy. Many Kyivans want them gone, saying that the people who remain are not the same ones who fought the revolution.

“Activists resided in our House of Trade Unions for some time, and we all supported them up to Feb. 20. They were fed. Every day I came, checked the posts, helped them as I could. And I agree that the Maidan had to stay up to May 25, because we didn’t have a president. But there is nothing to do at the center of Ukraine after the election. There are no real activists at Maidan nowadays - they are in the east - only homeless people and titushky are here,” said Valery Kiparenko, assistant to the chairman of the Federation of Trade Unions Safety.

The tent city has, in fact, become inhabited by homeless people and other men who continue to wear masks even without much justification for hiding their identities. Crimes, including thefts and assaults, are becoming more common, residents say. Many Kyivans say the able-bodied men should battle the Russian-backed insurgents on Ukraine's war front in the east.

The protesters who remain, however, say they stay to defend the space. Their presence, they say, is needed to hold the current government accountable and in case another revolution is needed.

Kyiv residents started gathering at the site of protests and said they support the government's actions to clear up the capital.

"Maidan is a mess now. Russian TV will be happy to show the picture when protesters clash with utility workers here. It's time to clean it up and solve major problems," said Kateryna Belkova, a native Kyivan who came to Maidan on Aug. 7 to see what's going on.

But dozens of protesters who put up resistance to the authorities clearly don't share that point of view. Olena Leonova, one of the protesters who remains on Maidan, says that the activists here were trying to persuade the government "to make ATO (anti-terrorist operation) headquarters here on Maidan."

"But now I see that the new government does not want to listen to people. Almost everything is the same as Yanukovych did. Maidan activists just started a dialogue with Kyiv city officials and the president's administration, but now I see that they just want a cleanup," Leonova said.

Klitschko said last month that the main street needs to be cleared up from protesters. “On weekdays, Khreshchatyk is an important artery of the city and its blockage ends up being a great inconvenience for the whole central part of the city,” Klitschko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Moreover, he had said that in its current state, Maidan no longer represents the mood of the people. “Today it's dangerous to be on Maidan. There are occasional shots fired there, and fights break out. We communicate, try to persuade people to do everything to make sure Maidan returns to a normal life.”

Many Kyivans who came to the central square made it clear that they do not support the resistance to authorities. "Those who want to fight - go to Donbass," shouted Yuriy Lyashko, a 51-year-old city guide who came to see what's happening.

One communal worker said the protesters were bringing in new tires to continue resistance. Kyiv-1 and Kyiv-2 military battalions retreated with the words “glory to Ukraine.”

You can watch the live feed on Spilno.tv and on Hromadske.tv

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Irbis]

The empirical fact that both China and India are steadily growing in power and significance on the world stage tends to argue against that view.

India is tiny player on world stage. It might be regional power, but does (and can do) very little to threaten US interests.

China? Policy of propping up China against Soviets backfired spectacularly and Chinese hold most of the cards today. Not only holding enormous debt from USA, China also has thousands of US factories they could seize had USA attempted any kind of sanctions against them. USA can play hard against Russia because they have little common trade, trying to do so hard against China would have ended in cataclysmic clash.

Russia? USA has this vacant pool of vassals that was out of work after Cold War, semi-aligned against Russia already, they pretty much win-win on setting up their lapdogs on Putin as sanctions weaken economies of both EU and FR.

If they ban overflights by foreign companies, Finnair is going to be fucked.

Oh, many more countries are going to be fucked.

Let's see, from the north, Russia's neighbours:

Finland - huge amount of trade, mutual interests, technology swap, sanctions are going to hit them pretty hard.

Baltic countries - saved some ties to Russian economy, greatly benefited on being EU-Russia intermediary. Lithuania is already asking EU for some sort of compensation, I heard today on radio.

Poland - not only we face up to 2 bln losses on sales, the russophobic hysteria started by foreign newspapers and some anti-Russian politicians here greatly destabilized internal politics. After some rallying behind government, Poles started to vote en-masse for a single party that said "screw Ukraine and its Bandera worship, Russian relations are more important". Imagine something far worse than Neocons - utopian predatory libertarians with extremely sexist, backwards views on women. They had reliable 0.2% of popular support, now they sensationally were big victors of EU elections and it looks like they will form government with right wing primitives from PiS. "Polish Merkel", PM Donald Tusk has 20% of support to 45% of right wingers, and might be out of work next year.

Congratulations, NATO, hope you liked Potato brothers period of 2005-2007, because thanks to you and your fucking adventures, Poland might be back to fundamentalist police state, except worse as back then they weren't so radicalized

Slovakia - another big ties to Russia, opposes any kind of sanctions.

Hungary - maybe worst of the lot, Orban used Ukraine to drum up support for radical jingoist right wing, demanding annexing of Carpathian Ruthenia that Hungary lost to Ukraine in Triannon, or at least including it in federalized state deal, giving it autonomy. Orban's popularity soared after this, making him Haider 2.0, except revanchist one.

Bulgaria - as Slovakia, maybe even worse because it faces internal EU sanctions for working too closely with Russia on gas transit.

Moldavia - massive internal protests, Gaugazia and Transnistria radicalizing. Hell, a few Moldavian villages defected to Transnistria, despite Moldavia having EU prospects.

Greece, Cyprus, Turkey - Russians are cancelling holidays there due to falling course of Rouble, which, as 3 countries were extremely popular destinations and had whole cities turning bilingual with signs and language knowledge, will hit them hard. Unofficial predictions mention 5 billion loss for poorer regions living off tourism. I wonder, how happy Greeks will be seeing thanks to power plays they now suffer doubly, while russophobes debate how many free billions to dump into far more failed state? And people wonder why countries radicalise

All in all, not only Russia is fucked, all of its neighbourhood will be, while West EU and USA take care to not embargo economy sectors that might actually hurt them. Gee, I wonder why this doesn't sound cool to interested parties. Must be Russian bribery

Also, I must say I like sour grapes butthurt appearing in Western press over embargo. "Poor Russians will have less, more expensive food!". Pfft, as it they care about a single human being. They should praise Russia for giving farmers from poor South American and Asian countries lucky break by opening big European market to them, oh, wait, every single thing Russia does is evil and so helping poor countries is now doublyplusevil

Huh, Khrushchev would be proud his drunken, then completely meaningless border gift changes are defended by rotten imperialists to the last cent of Central European peoples, while self-determination of nations ideology they whipped him with landed quietly in trash can. The irony would make him laugh for weeks...

[Simon_Jester]

One can already see in this very thread people and articles posted talking about China even though this is about Ukraine and Russia. They literally try and shoehorn the issue in Europe with China. This isn't just confined to just a bunch of whackos on youtube, you can see this type of thinking in various opinion pieces published in respected media outlets. During these rants you usually hear the magic words "the status quo" which is code speak for US dominance.

Now lets consider also US double standards. When US allies do it, its ok. Lets say Japan declares an ADIZ, totally cool. Heck the US has one too. China declares an ADIZ and Joe Biden starts sprouting shit about "unilaterally changing the status quo" and the totally non bias Western Media goes apeshit. Lets put this in perspective. If the US was interested in FAIR coexistence, what is good for the US should be ok for China as well. But its not. Its not like China is asking for special treatment in the above example.

I would argue that the US (or more specifically those in the US who want to limit China) can't do too much to China without hurting itself badly in the process even if they do achieve some sort of "victory". Lots of reasons for that including factions in the US who want to trade with China and don't care if it strengthens them. Thus China can continue to "grow in power and significance" despite hostility from certain powerful factions in the US.

All true, especially the last paragraph. Which is why it bothers me when people like montypython start shrieking about how American evilism or whatever is going to result in World War Three.

It's like, they're so quick to perceive the US as a unified villainous bloc that they lose sight of the political and economic realities. Which is disturbing and frustrating enough for me, as an American, when it happens in people from other countries. It's even more disturbing when it becomes self-hatred on the part of actual Americans who start thinking of their own nation's political process as a thing separate from themselves.

I have no desire to imagine any country as being a comic book villain-state full of irredeemable evil and debased orc-like humanity. I don't understand why other people feel a need to think this way.

The empirical fact that both China and India are steadily growing in power and significance on the world stage tends to argue against that view.

India is tiny player on world stage. It might be regional power, but does (and can do) very little to threaten US interests.

Yes, but they're going from "totally impoverished and helpless backwater" toward "regional power;" their trend is upward.

Please remember that my statement is directed against the idea that the US is so overweening, so stupidly, blindly, self-destructively ambitious that it will provoke World War Three rather than 'allow' any potential rival to emerge that it hasn't made a client state.

China? Policy of propping up China against Soviets backfired spectacularly and Chinese hold most of the cards today. Not only holding enormous debt from USA, China also has thousands of US factories they could seize had USA attempted any kind of sanctions against them. USA can play hard against Russia because they have little common trade, trying to do so hard against China would have ended in cataclysmic clash.

EXACTLY. So, contrary to what montypython's hysteria suggested, the US is not about to provoke a world war over the fact that China has a large and growing economy.

Now, this kind of squabbling, sordid nonsense in which everyone and their cousin decides they have to weigh in on another country's civil war because it is just unacceptable to have Russia intervening on behalf of a disenfranchised ethnic Russian minority in a state on its own borders... That's another matter.

I don't think it can even really be said to be a case of the US playing off the EU against Russia, or at any rate not on purpose. Obama's actions have been fully consistent with what you'd expect in a situation where he dislikes what a foreign country is doing: specifically, he does essentially nothing, waggles his finger disapprovingly, decries the situation in press releases and quietly hopes it'll all go away by morning. Just like ISIL/ISIS.

Remember that most of the EU states have their own reasons to be anti-Russian (such as being subject to Soviet imperial dominance, or fear of same), and have always been hypocritical about the idea of ethnic self-determination when it wasn't to their advantage to support such self-determination. Self-determination was a great rallying cry for dismantling the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, but once that was done with the whole thing became something of an embarrassment.

This kind of thing has been a part of European politics for centuries in one form or another, and major European states need no prompting from their big fat cousin across the Atlantic to engage in it.

[And yes, Putin's a rotten corrupt oligarchic ass, that doesn't mean you get to poke his country with a stick and expect no response]

[Welf]

China? Policy of propping up China against Soviets backfired spectacularly and Chinese hold most of the cards today. Not only holding enormous debt from USA, China also has thousands of US factories they could seize had USA attempted any kind of sanctions against them. USA can play hard against Russia because they have little common trade, trying to do so hard against China would have ended in cataclysmic clash.

The USA still holds most of the cards. What should china do with it's US debts? Stopping to accept interest payments? Sell them and devalue the dollar and fuck up their own export industries? China has massive export surpluses with both EU and USA, so they are dependent on them to not start trade wars. And what should they do with the foreign owned factories? Disassemble them in an afternoon and send them to china? They already transfer all knowledge they can get to the homeland and still need much more of that to further modernize their industries. In small conflicts and negotiations china has the upper hand, but in a massive conflict they can only loose.

If they ban overflights by foreign companies, Finnair is going to be fucked.

Oh, many more countries are going to be fucked.

Let's see, from the north, Russia's neighbours:

Finland - huge amount of trade, mutual interests, technology swap, sanctions are going to hit them pretty hard.

Baltic countries - saved some ties to Russian economy, greatly benefited on being EU-Russia intermediary. Lithuania is already asking EU for some sort of compensation, I heard today on radio.

The Baltic countries have strong Russian minorities. They very well could be next. And if they get compensation it will be a net win for them.

Poland - not only we face up to 2 bln losses on sales, the russophobic hysteria started by foreign newspapers and some anti-Russian politicians here greatly destabilized internal politics. After some rallying behind government, Poles started to vote en-masse for a single party that said "screw Ukraine and its Bandera worship, Russian relations are more important". Imagine something far worse than Neocons - utopian predatory libertarians with extremely sexist, backwards views on women. They had reliable 0.2% of popular support, now they sensationally were big victors of EU elections and it looks like they will form government with right wing primitives from PiS. "Polish Merkel", PM Donald Tusk has 20% of support to 45% of right wingers, and might be out of work next year.

Congratulations, NATO, hope you liked Potato brothers period of 2005-2007, because thanks to you and your fucking adventures, Poland might be back to fundamentalist police state, except worse as back then they weren't so radicalized

So polish voters are fickle? Also it's still more then one year till next election and there very likely will be subsidies for polish farmers. Also, why NATO? Weren't the Kaczyńskis mostly a problem for EU?

[montypython]

China? Policy of propping up China against Soviets backfired spectacularly and Chinese hold most of the cards today. Not only holding enormous debt from USA, China also has thousands of US factories they could seize had USA attempted any kind of sanctions against them. USA can play hard against Russia because they have little common trade, trying to do so hard against China would have ended in cataclysmic clash.

The USA still holds most of the cards. What should china do with it's US debts? Stopping to accept interest payments? Sell them and devalue the dollar and fuck up their own export industries? China has massive export surpluses with both EU and USA, so they are dependent on them to not start trade wars. And what should they do with the foreign owned factories? Disassemble them in an afternoon and send them to china? They already transfer all knowledge they can get to the homeland and still need much more of that to further modernize their industries. In small conflicts and negotiations china has the upper hand, but in a massive conflict they can only loose.

The thing is that the more unstable the US get with its internal politics and economics, the more attractive armed force gets as a means of sustaining its global power, and I say this as an American who does not want to see people (American and otherwise) get run roughshod because short-sighted ideologically blinded politicians and their enablers wish to keep their power and privileges above all else. Iraq and Libya were already bad enough, letting this proliferate any more is antithetical to the public welfare.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The USA still holds most of the cards. What should china do with it's US debts? Stopping to accept interest payments? Sell them and devalue the dollar and fuck up their own export industries? China has massive export surpluses with both EU and USA, so they are dependent on them to not start trade wars. And what should they do with the foreign owned factories? Disassemble them in an afternoon and send them to china? They already transfer all knowledge they can get to the homeland and still need much more of that to further modernize their industries. In small conflicts and negotiations china has the upper hand, but in a massive conflict they can only loose.

Debatable. Companies in US and the EU are looking for growth and none can be found at home. So they go to China. Close off foreign companies, and a good number of European and US companies, European especially, would be fucked.

[mr friendly guy]

The USA still holds most of the cards. What should china do with it's US debts? Stopping to accept interest payments? Sell them and devalue the dollar and fuck up their own export industries? China has massive export surpluses with both EU and USA, so they are dependent on them to not start trade wars. And what should they do with the foreign owned factories? Disassemble them in an afternoon and send them to china? They already transfer all knowledge they can get to the homeland and still need much more of that to further modernize their industries. In small conflicts and negotiations china has the upper hand, but in a massive conflict they can only loose.

I think he is referring to US factories located in China, as opposed to factories in the US owned by Chinese businesses.

[Tanasinn]

I can't see how barking mad you'd have to be to unilaterally seize U.S.-owned foreign factories, anyway. Even assuming the U.S. doesn't respond, you're killing future investment in your country, because hey - these guys steal factories. But of course the U.S. would respond, and everything is on the table there from trade embargoes (which wouldn't work out so hot for China's export economy) to naval blockade (unlikely, but possible).

[K. A. Pital]

I can't see how barking mad you'd have to be to unilaterally seize U.S.-owned foreign factories, anyway. Even assuming the U.S. doesn't respond, you're killing future investment in your country, because hey - these guys steal factories. But of course the U.S. would respond, and everything is on the table there from trade embargoes (which wouldn't work out so hot for China's export economy) to naval blockade (unlikely, but possible).

1. Naval blockade is impossible.
2. Seizure with compensation is always a legal right of the government. In some cases, factories may be seized without compensation (which is what countries generally don't like).
3. Embargoing China is going to tank the US economy just as it would injure the Chinese one, but the larger the Chinese internal market becomes, the less significant the US becomes. So wait another 10-15 years and the US wouldn't mean anything to China.
4. The seizing in case of a relations cooling is pretty normal, if the relations are really cold.

[Welf]

I think he is referring to US factories located in China, as opposed to factories in the US owned by Chinese businesses.

I didn't look at china's asset/liablity structure; china indeed has a net surplus of 1,7 trillion direct investments. But the net of all assets/liabilities is about 2 trillion, so they still have to loose a lot. (Fun fact: china pays net interest of 60 bn USD to the rest of the world because of it's terrible asset structure. Link.)

Debatable. Companies in US and the EU are looking for growth and none can be found at home. So they go to China. Close off foreign companies, and a good number of European and US companies, European especially, would be fucked.

Individual companies need china as growth market, but in the sum of all companies the gain would be for EU/US. Otherwise there wouldn't be a import deficit for EU/US. A trade war would hurt both sides because export industries will get hit and lay off people, but long term the countries with export deficit can shift the unemployed to the industries that now don't have Chinese competition while china can't.
Note: I doubt that the long-term gain of having more employment will be higher than the cost of having to restructure your economies, so in a trade war both sides would loose, but with the EU/US loosing much less.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Individual companies need china as growth market, but in the sum of all companies the gain would be for EU/US. Otherwise there wouldn't be a import deficit for EU/US. A trade war would hurt both sides because export industries will get hit and lay off people, but long term the countries with export deficit can shift the unemployed to the industries that now don't have Chinese competition while china can't.
Note: I doubt that the long-term gain of having more employment will be higher than the cost of having to restructure your economies, so in a trade war both sides would loose, but with the EU/US loosing much less.

The export deficit exists because your companies have chosen to avoid setting up factories in Europe but in China instead and then re-export back to home and the rest of the world. This is just not a numbers thing, but the fact that European laws are often very biased towards the worker. So what will they do when they get banned from their biggest market and blocked from their own factories? In all likelihood, they'd shift the factories to say South America but in the short run, the pain will be tremendous. They are't going to shift the factories back home, mind you.

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4730c97a ... z3AHPquVvq

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August 11, 2014 5:13 pm
EU plans Russia sanctions talks with Latin America countries
By Christian Oliver in BrusselsAuthor alerts

The EU plans to hold talks with countries such as Brazil and Chile to dissuade them from stepping in to replace Europe’s banned agricultural exports to Russia, senior officials said on Monday.
Since Russia banned food imports from the EU and the US last week in a response to sanctions, Moscow has been courting Latin America for alternative supplies. Several countries and trade groups in South America have said that Moscow’s measures could offer them a lucrative windfall.

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Brazil has authorised about 90 new meat plants immediately to start exporting chicken, beef and pork to Russia, and Chile is tipped as a leading beneficiary of Russia’s embargo on European fish.
Seneri Paludo, Brazil’s secretary for agricultural policy, said Russia’s embargo could also allow Brazil to export more corn and soyabeans to the country. “Russia has the potential to be a large consumer of agricultural commodities, not just meat,” he said.
Such excitement in the agricultural powerhouses of Latin America has triggered concern in Brussels. “We will be talking to the countries that would be potentially replacing our exports to indicate that we would expect them not to profit unfairly from the current situation,” said one senior EU official at a briefing on the situation in Ukraine.
The official said he understood that individual companies could sign new contracts with Russia but it would “be difficult to justify” countries pursuing diplomatic initiatives to fill the gap left by the EU, the US, Norway and Australia.
Another EU official said the talks would be “political”, seeking to map out the importance of a united international front on Ukraine, rather than raising specific legal objections to food exports to Russia.
The EU, as the world’s largest trade bloc, can exercise influence through its negotiations with Latin America’s Mercosur trade grouping, although these 15-year-old talks on a trade accord are mired in difficulties over market access.
Most attention on potential winners from Europe’s trade war with Russia has focused on Latin America but Belarus and Turkey are also expected to profit.
While senior European diplomats are due to protest to any country seeking to fill the gap left by EU exports, an official from the EU’s agricultural commission was more sanguine. He explained that any country diverting exports to Russia would very probably create a new market for the EU.
The announcement of the diplomatic protests came as the EU unveiled its first measures to support farmers hit by the Russian ban – propping up peach and nectarine farmers, whose business had already been crippled by bad weather. The EU said that it would increase the amount of the fruit available for free distribution and would make more funds available for promotion.
While Russia’s ban has exacerbated the difficulties for peach farmers in Spain, Greece and Italy, the EU had been planning to act on peaches and nectarines before Moscow’s embargo.
A more comprehensive EU response to the food ban is expected to be drawn up at a meeting of agricultural experts from all 28 EU countries in Brussels on Thursday.
Additional reporting by Samantha Pearson in São Paulo

Lets sum up the boycott game.

1. EU / US boycott Russia.
2. Russia bans EU goods such as agricultural products
3. Latin American sees a good opportunity to expand into agricultural goods to make up the shortfall.
4. EU whines.

[Thanas]

Does anybody really think that Russia will close her airspace? There are international treaties and (more importantly) hundreds of millions of income via flyover dues at stake. So far Putin has avoided damaging the direct income of the state.

[Borgholio]

It's been mentioned that Putin hasn't been acting fully rationally recently, due to is potential loss of standing with the Oligarchs. If it would win him more brownie points, he'd probably consider doing it.

[K. A. Pital]

Locking VTB out of Western capital markets injured state incomes. And surely this was foreseen.

As for airspace, why not? Not all companies come from Europe.

[Welf]

Lets sum up the boycott game.

1. EU / US boycott Russia.
2. Russia bans EU goods such as agricultural products
3. Latin American sees a good opportunity to expand into agricultural goods to make up the shortfall.
4. EU whines.

The whining is mostly just usual political game to get EU subsidies and to some part the usual pundit idiocy.