Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

You can make the argument its not in the category of the really severe war crimes, on the other other hand the rebels are being really blatant about their violation in this case.

I already made that argument.

[Omega18]

You can make the argument its not in the category of the really severe war crimes, on the other other hand the rebels are being really blatant about their violation in this case.

I already made that argument.

You appeared to go further and question if it was a war crime at all.

Furthermore, to the extent injured soldiers were being forcibly paraded and having bottles thrown at them you can argue for the war crime to be put in a more serious category.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Flip the coin and the Kievan government can ve accused of war crimes for shelling and rocketing civilian areas but you don't see the Western media saying it's a war crime so...

[Sea Skimmer]

We have plenty of videos of the rebels setting up and firing mortars, rockets and artillery pieces in civilian areas, some of these events having been geolocated to specific points. It is not a war crime to fire on an civilian area when it is being used for military purposes. Nor for that matter is it always a crime to shoot down a civilian airliner, though in the later case a aerial blockade must first be declared.

Parading POWs meanwhile, is just illegal out of hand, and was made so largely because of events in WW2 by both sides.

[cosmicalstorm]

Is there any doubt about Russia not sending tanks, artillery, rockets, crazy guys with guns and everything else across the border?
Putin reminds me of GWB in the early months of 2003 when Iraq was getting started. He is obviously invading Ukraine as we speak. I don't have a big problem with this, it's how the US would respond if Canada was increasingly becoming a Soviet satellite.

I think it likely, but its remarkable how little hard evidence there is of it to date.

Is the evidence weak? There are thousands of pieces of Russian military hardware all over Ukraine by now. Putin admitted invading Crimea. It's about as believable as the yellow cake story.
If the Russian army was in such a lousy security condition that entire battalions could be stolen from bases it would be scandalous, even after wall came down it did not get that bad.
Wonder if there will be a leak of heavy weapons to other parts of the world?

[K. A. Pital]

There are thousands of vehicles? Seriously? I mean, there is a supply line from Russia (let's be honest because I also know some people running activities related to that supply line), but 'thousands' there are not. Which is also why the rebels are in a tight spot.

After the USSR collapsed entire military depots were looted to the bones and everything resold at the black market. You were simply not there to see it. It was much worse, and greatly exacerbated the conflicts in some parts of the world.

[Mange]

There were reports earlier today about a Russian incursion (probably pro-Russian militia) to the south near Mariupol but which was stopped. I dismissed that (as there have been many similar unsubstantiated reports), but it seems as if pro-Kremlin media now reports that the Ukrainian National Guard has been forced to evacuate Mariupol due to a counter-offensive by the militia, but as Mariupol is located some distance away from the front, one can't help but wonder (but there could also be nothing to it): L!feNews via Google Translate

[K. A. Pital]

The rebels have been on the counteroffensive since the last few days. One has to remember that the 'National Guard' is a volunteer formation, and territories under its control are by no means firmly controlled. It is more like the Vietcong, though nowhere near in numbers and penetration.

Some of the rebel videos I saw last week also demonstrate a huge improvement in tactics and weapons handling.

[cosmicalstorm]

There are thousands of vehicles? Seriously? I mean, there is a supply line from Russia (let's be honest because I also know some people running activities related to that supply line), but 'thousands' there are not. Which is also why the rebels are in a tight spot.

After the USSR collapsed entire military depots were looted to the bones and everything resold at the black market. You were simply not there to see it. It was much worse, and greatly exacerbated the conflicts in some parts of the world.

Well maybe only several dozens or hundreds of tanks that were probably parked firmly in Russian territory this time last year. To argue that they just happened to find their way into Ukraine is laughable. It's a huge insult to the current status of the Russian military to imply that their base security is bad enough to allow entire cargotrains of tanks, grads, artillery, SAM-systems to roll around without control. Maybe the weeks after the Berlin wall but today? No way.

[Vympel]

Is the evidence weak? There are thousands of pieces of Russian military hardware all over Ukraine by now. Putin admitted invading Crimea. It's about as believable as the yellow cake story.
If the Russian army was in such a lousy security condition that entire battalions could be stolen from bases it would be scandalous, even after wall came down it did not get that bad.
Wonder if there will be a leak of heavy weapons to other parts of the world?

You can count the credible evidence on one hand, if at all. Most of the 'evidence' is Kiev's crap, which you can regonise easily - its always a claim about an incursion that is a: too large for there to be so little evidence and b: still too small to actually change anything.

If the Russians were going to go that big - we'd know about it.

I don't doubt the Russians are running supplies, but its a question of scale. Ukraine has always had thousands of pieces of Russian military hardware. Its been there from the start. Whatever the Russians are adding to the mix is barely a blip.

Well maybe only several dozens or hundreds of tanks that were probably parked firmly in Russian territory this time last year. To argue that they just happened to find their way into Ukraine is laughable. It's a huge insult to the current status of the Russian military to imply that their base security is bad enough to allow entire cargotrains of tanks, grads, artillery, SAM-systems to roll around without control. Maybe the weeks after the Berlin wall but today? No way.

There's little reason to believe the rebels have 'hundreds' of tanks, and even less reason to think they mostly came from Russia. The majority of rebel equipment has certainly come from within Ukraine - including the outright purchase of it through unofficial channels. There was a scandal about that in the Ukrainian papers a few weeks ago - a plant or depot or some such getting T-64s/72s (can't remember which) ready for sale to parties unknown IIRC.

Same sort of shit happened in the Chechen wars - Chechens would literally buy military materiel from the enemy (corrupt Russian officers).

[Irbis]

Well maybe only several dozens or hundreds of tanks that were probably parked firmly in Russian territory this time last year.

What?

Hundreds of tanks? You know that Ardennes offensive, largest battle on Western front in WW2 featured about 300 tanks on German side despite massing of several SS Panzer armies and corps? Or, for reference, entire army of Italy, one of largest NATO members, has about 200 Ariete tanks?

Is there one, I repeat, one photo of indisputably Russian tank (not ex-Ukrainian, tank that in 2014 was in Russian active service) captured or even clearly photographed on front line by Ukrainians? Much less of 'hundreds' such tanks?

It's based on an interpretation of Article 13 of the Geneva Convention.

Ok, but only thing that is defined as war crime are grave breaches of the treaty, that is:

willful killing, torture or inhumane treatment, including biological experiments;
willfully causing great suffering or serious injury to body or health;
compelling a protected person to serve in the armed forces of a hostile power;
willfully depriving a protected person of the right to a fair trial if accused of a war crime.

None of which apply here. Parading of prisoners, is, at best, ordinary crime. I'd also like to mention quoting person that came up with 'illegal enemy combatants' crap specifically to pee all over the conventions might not be the wisest thing to do.

Then, there is this inconvenient fact that we only really see prisoners on one side. What happens to the guys from the other one? Especially seeing that Ukrainians are supposedly constantly overrunning separatist positions?

You'd think they would have at least equal numbers of prisoners to show, especially some of these fabled Putin's Spetsnaz boys. Yet, separatists took 300-1200 prisoners according to various sources, while I struggle to find anything but kill tallies on the other side. Corpses are awfully convenient and problem-free, aren't they?

[Vympel]

It is not a war crime to fire on an civilian area when it is being used for military purposes.

There's no carte blanche to fire on civilian areas purely because it may be being used for military purposes. Article 51 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions:

4. Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited. Indiscriminate attacks are:

(a) those which are not directed at a specific military objective;

(b) those which employ a method or means of combat which cannot be directed at a specific military objective; or

(c) those which employ a method or means of combat the effects of which cannot be limited as required by this Protocol; and consequently, in each such case, are of a nature to strike military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction.

5. Among others, the following types of attacks are to be considered as indiscriminate:

(a) an attack by bombardment by any methods or means which treats as a single military objective a number of clearly separated and distinct military objectives located in a city, town, village or other area containing a similar concentration of civilians or civilian objects; and

(b) an attack which may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.

Its highly dubious that Ukraine's shelling of Donetsk could be considered proportionate in the circumstances. In any event its clearly very inaccurate judging from the proliferation of videos / pictures of dead civilians who have no rational reason to be standing around looking at rebels firing mortars or artillery pieces (if the Ukrainians even had the capacity to accurately locate artillery firing at them with whatever counter battery sensors they have at their disposal, which given the deleterious state of their forces is much in doubt).

In any event, whether it would be judged a war crime or not, with civilians dying I have a hard time caring about the sensibilities of captured soldiers being subjected to some mere verbal abuse from a clearly victimised civilian population. This shit just needs to end with an acceptable peace for all parties, yesterday.

[K. A. Pital]

Poroshenko dissolved the Parliament.

[Vympel]

Ukraine's going to get an even less representative parliament in exchange for - perhaps - a less extremist cabinet. My hopes are not high that they're in a condition to have proper elections by October or whenever the date is.

[cosmicalstorm]

I take back any numbers of tanks in Russia because I realize it's impossible to make firm assertions.

My take on this in short:
1. Fall of Soviet is not approved in Moscow.
2. Ukraine (western parts) leans towards Europe (Not in a small part thanks to CIA/Western intelligence operations I'm sure)
3. Covert invasion of Ukraine disguised as rebellion is planned, funded and executed by Russian military to seize control of Ukraine.

We are now somewhere inside of nr 3.

Just watching pics of Russian paras nabbed a way bit inside Ukr

[Mange]

Is there one, I repeat, one photo of indisputably Russian tank (not ex-Ukrainian, tank that in 2014 was in Russian active service) captured or even clearly photographed on front line by Ukrainians?

Well, this video (filmed today close to these coordinates in Sverdlovsk, Luhansk Oblast) and which seems to show T-72s is interesting (though I haven't seen it claimed that it shows regulars) as Ukraine has retired most T-72s and those held in reserve are rusting away.

[Irbis]

2. Ukraine (western parts) leans towards Europe (Not in a small part thanks to CIA/Western intelligence operations I'm sure)

That runs deeper than that. Sure, we have infamous quote of 5 billion dollars by Nuland, but rabidity of western Ukraine is partly the result of their 130 year occupation under German/Catholic Austro-Hungary. You had both religious, linguistic and ethnic struggle, while eastern Ukraine under Russia shared alphabet and religion, with only slight linguistic differences allowing them to mostly assimilate.

After AH monarchy fell, west Ukraine fell to Poland, which also renewed religious conflict due to Russophobian views of the elite, and end result was creation of Nazi-aligned movements committing atrocities as bad as the Nazi ones. Their defeat and 50 years under Soviets moderated that a bit, but it begun to rise again in 90s thanks to bad economy, and now we're seemingly back in 30s, except the nationalist aggression this time is that of a conqueror, not subjugated.

Think about it for a moment - what provoked Maidan? The government ruled for 5 years, why it got so bad just then? No, it was not about EU (though it was also a factor). The EU prospects were being ruined the whole time. No, the nationalist protest erupted when Regions Party decided to enact one of their promises and make Russian official language in the east. This was unacceptable to fascist movements because it threatened to destroy dream of greater Ukraine, with forcibly ukrainized population for a start.

To everyone who claims there are no fascist in Ukraine - please. There is big, important Polish Cemetery in Lvov, with graves of French and American volunteers helping Poland in 1920 independence war. Last 20 years once anyone in Poland dared to remember - just remember, not even criticize - UPA atrocities in 40s, they were always told to shut up as invariably some rabid ukrainian right wing group or another threatened to vandalize the Cemetery in repression. How sick and dehumanized you need to be to take important historic monument as hostage?

It would be like German neonazis threatened to demolish allied Cemeteries in Germany every time someone mentioned Auschwitz - imagine the outrage it would cause. And yet, the Ukrainian Lvov officials unilaterally change everything they want there, from the contents of memorial plates to removing statues. Elected officials, not even random vandals

3. Covert invasion of Ukraine disguised as rebellion is planned, funded and executed by Russian military to seize control of Ukraine.

That is wrong, I believe.

I do not say, of course, that Russian special services don't keep tabs on the rebellion. They would be utterly incompetent to do so.

However, Polish anti-Russian press sent people to make interviews with rebels, to show us how evil they are. But, when I looked into them, I saw completely disorganized coalition with dozens of views, Russian monarchists, right wingers, pan-Slavists, anti-oligarchs, anti-fascists, communists, etc.

Dozens of weird ideologies that, surprisingly, often hated Putin and Russian government, but groups that felt they were too weak to do anything about it in Russia and who decided to wage anti-oligarch (or pro-Russian, or pro-Slavic, or anti-fascist, etc) war in Ukraine by proxy because they feel they can win there.

I don't think Polish press would be crafty enough to invent ideologies most of people here didn't even heard to describe group after group of rebels, so I decided to take their word for once. Does it mean there were no Russian agents among rebels - well, no, of course if such people are present, they wouldn't advertise it. But, the rebels described are majority, and whatever Russian government help is present, it's small enough for our press to not immediately notice and finger 'look, here are Putin's cronies!'.

I don't thing the rebellion would have lasted so long with purely foreign instigation. Whatever these people are, they do believe in what they fight, and they do have support of the population. At least from what I saw. They are no 'green men', this is not Crimea, IMHO.

Well, this video (filmed today close to these coordinates in Sverdlovsk, Luhansk Oblast) and which seems to show T-72s is interesting (though I haven't seen it claimed that it shows regulars) as Ukraine has retired most T-72s and those held in reserve are rusting away.

Ok. But still, it's a tank exported to close to 40 countries, found in abundance in all ex-Soviet states. Had it been say T-90 or advanced T-72 variant, sure, it would be Russian. Normal T-72 could have easily been found in Ukrainian army storage, they still have over 1000+ of them.

Moreover, outside of some skirmishes, had the rebel have access to any significant tank force we'd already hear about tank/tank battle. Did we? I am not aware of any, but I could have missed something.

[Vympel]

Well, this video (filmed today close to these coordinates in Sverdlovsk, Luhansk Oblast) and which seems to show T-72s is interesting (though I haven't seen it claimed that it shows regulars) as Ukraine has retired most T-72s and those held in reserve are rusting away.

Well:



Ukrainian Army T-72B behind Poroshenko.

[FaxModem1]

Looks like Ukraine is the number one vacation spot for Russian soldiers, or you know, it's an actual invasion:

CNN

U.S. official says 1,000 Russian troops enter Ukraine
By Victoria Butenko, Laura Smith-Spark and Diana Magnay, CNN
updated 10:17 AM EDT, Thu August 28, 2014
Your video will play in 0 secs
STORY HIGHLIGHTS

NEW: Lithuania requests an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine
U.S. official: Intelligence indicates up to 1,000 Russian troops are in southern Ukraine
Donetsk rebel leader: Up to 4,000 Russians are fighting; some are active servicemen
U.S. ambassador to Ukraine says Russia is "now directly involved in the fighting"

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- A top Ukrainian army officer said a "full-scale invasion" of his country was under way Thursday, as a U.S. official said up to 1,000 Russian troops had crossed Ukraine's southern border to fight alongside pro-Russian rebels.

U.S. officials said Russian troops were directly involved in the latest fighting, despite Moscow's denials.

Rebels backed by Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers fought Ukrainian forces on two fronts Thursday: southeast of rebel-held Donetsk, and along the nation's southern coast in the town of Novoazovsk, about 12 miles (20 km) from the Russian border, according to Mykhailo Lysenko, the deputy commander of the Ukrainian Donbas battalion.

"This is a full-scale invasion," Lysenko said, referring to the fighting in the south.
Fighting in Ukraine may be spreading
Photos: Crisis in Ukraine Photos: Crisis in Ukraine
Ukraine: Russians captured in east

Intelligence now indicates that up to 1,000 Russian troops have moved into southern Ukraine with heavy weapons and are fighting there, a U.S. official told CNN Thursday.

Ukraine's National Defense and Security Council said that Russian forces were in full control of Novoazovsk as of Wednesday afternoon.

Russia's military fired Grad rockets into the town and its suburbs before sending in two convoys of tanks and armored personnel carriers from Russia's Rostov region, it said in a statement

"Ukrainian troops were ordered to pull out to save their lives. By late afternoon both Russian convoys had entered the town. Ukraine is now fortifying nearby Mariupol to the west," the NDSC said.

A number of villages in the Novoazovsk, Starobeshiv and Amvrosiiv districts were also seized, it said.

The NDSC also warned that a rebel counterattack is expected in the area where Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in July. Ukrainian and Western officials believe it was downed by rebels armed with Russian-made weapons.

Novoazovsk is strategically important because it lies on the main road leading from the Russian border to Ukraine's Crimea region, which Russia annexed in March. Separatist leaders in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions then declared independence from Kiev.

U.N. Security Council to meet

As international concern mounted over the apparent escalation in fighting, Lithuania requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine.

UK ambassador to the United Nations Mark Lyall Grant said Russia would be asked to explain why its soldiers are in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk had earlier called for the U.N. meeting, as well as action by Europe.

The latest flare-up comes despite a meeting between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Belarus on Tuesday at which some progress appeared to have been made toward finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
Ukrainians fight to survive amid siege
Questions return with Russian convoy

Poroshenko canceled a planned trip to Turkey on Thursday "due to sharp aggravation of the situation in Donetsk region ... as Russian troops were brought into Ukraine," a statement from his office said.

In a Cabinet meeting, Yatsenyuk said Russia "has very much increased its military presence in Ukraine" and that tougher measures may be needed to curb Russia's support for the rebels.

"Unfortunately, the sanctions were unhelpful as to de-escalating the situation in Ukraine," he said, referring to the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union against Russian individuals and companies.

Yatsenyuk suggested one way to halt "Russian aggression" could be to freeze all assets and ban all Russian bank transactions until Russia "pulls out all its military, equipment and agents" from Ukraine.

"Vladimir Putin has purposely started a war in Europe. It is impossible to hide from the fact," he said.

U.S. ambassador: Russia is directly involved

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also said Thursday that Russian soldiers were directly involved in the fighting, alongside the pro-Russia rebels.

"Russian-supplied tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and multiple rocket launchers have been insufficient to defeat Ukraine's armed forces, so now an increasing number of Russian troops are intervening directly in the fighting on Ukrainian territory," he said on Twitter.

"Russia has also sent its newest air defense systems including the SA-22 into eastern Ukraine and is now directly involved in the fighting."

Moscow denies supporting and arming the pro-Russia rebels. It has also repeatedly denied allegations by Kiev that it has sent troops over the border.

A Russian senator and the deputy head of the Committee on Defense and Security in Russia's upper house of Parliament, Evgeny Serebrennikov, dismissed the latest reports of a Russian incursion as untrue.

"We've heard many statements from the government of Ukraine, which turned out to be a lie. What we can see now is just another lie," he said to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky also accused Kiev of lies, in comments to RIA Novosti.

"I can only say that there's no ground for claims like this, and the junta tries to lay its own fault at someone else's door," he said, referring to the Kiev government.

Moscow regards it as illegitimate because it took charge after Ukraine's pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February.

Russian soldiers detained in Ukraine; leaders meet in Minsk

Rebel leader: 3,000 to 4,000 Russians in our ranks

However, the Prime Minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, acknowledged Thursday that there are current Russian servicemen fighting in the rebels' ranks in eastern Ukraine.

In his statement, televised on state-run Russia 24, Zakharchenko said the rebels have never concealed that many Russians are fighting with them. He said up until now there were 3,000 to 4,000 volunteers, some of whom are retired Russian servicemen.

Zakharchenko went on to reveal that the Russian servicemen currently fighting in their ranks are active, "as they came to us to struggle for our freedom instead of their vacations."

On Tuesday, Ukraine's Security Service said it had detained 10 Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

Russian state media cited a source in the Russian Defense Ministry as saying the soldiers had been patrolling the border and "most likely crossed by accident" at an unmarked point.

The NDSC said Thursday that Ukraine's Security Service detained another Russian serviceman who testified that his unit was supplying heavy military equipment to militants.

Six questions -- what's happening in Ukraine?

Ukrainian volunteers retreat from Mariupol area

Pro-Kiev forces apparently already have engaged with rebel forces between Novoazovsk and Mariupol, the Sea of Azov port city 35 kilometers to the west that the country's security council said was being fortified.

A CNN crew north of Mariupol saw a ragged convoy of about 25 vehicles, some with their windows smashed out, belonging to pro-Kiev volunteer fighters heading away from the city Thursday afternoon.

The volunteers, including two from the country of Georgia, said they'd been involved in fighting in the Mariupol area but didn't provide details.

Earlier Thursday and further north, the CNN crew was near Donetsk city, which Ukrainian forces have been trying to wrest from rebels for weeks. Heavy Ukrainian artillery fire targeted areas near Donetsk's southern suburbs amid a heavy downpour of rain.

The main highway 15 kilometers south of Donetsk was deserted. With return fire coming from Donetsk, villagers in the area said they'd been taking shelter indoors or underground, coming out only for an hour or two a day to get supplies.

Ukraine's secret weapon: Funding from the country's millionaires

'Russian-directed counteroffensive'

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki on Wednesday highlighted the latest reports of heavy fighting around Novoazovsk and Donetsk airport, as well as of "additional columns of Russian tanks, multiple rocket launchers and armored vehicles" heading for communities in southeastern Ukraine.

"These incursions indicate a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely underway in Donetsk and Luhansk," she said. "Clearly that is of deep concern to us."

She accused Moscow of not acting in a transparent manner when it came to the Russian people, as well as Ukraine and the rest of the world.

"We're also concerned by the Russian government's unwillingness to tell the truth even as its soldiers are found 30 miles inside Ukraine," she said. "Russia is sending its young men into Ukraine but are not telling them where they're going or telling their parents what they're doing."

On Wednesday, NDSC also claimed that members of a Russian tactical battalion were present in the village of Pobeda, in Ukraine's Luhansk region.

"If these troops got lost and accidentally found themselves in Ukraine as well, they should go back East," the update said.

The city of Luhansk, a rebel stronghold, has been at the center of fighting for days, prompting a humanitarian crisis. The NDSC said it remained without water, power or phone connections Thursday.

[Mange]

A Reuters journalist at the Russian/Ukrainian border has photographed Russian armored vehicles and military trucks returning to Russia from Ukraine. At least one injured soldier was seen atop one of the APCs: Reuters: Towed truck, Reuters: APCs

[Vympel]

Looks like Ukraine is the number one vacation spot for Russian soldiers, or you know, it's an actual invasion:

If it was an "actual" invasion, the Russians would already be in Kiev. Ukraine's armed forces would utterly collapse. You've got two different claims here:

1. That Russian servicemen (current and ex) are fighting with rebel formations in Ukraine. Almost certainly true, and they're certainly being supplied with weapons that give Russia (mostly) plausible deniability as to their arming the rebels.

2. That actual Russian armored columns - like from the regular Russian army - are attacking their troops in Ukraine, which is what Kiev's bullshit artists are saying. Still no evidence for that whatsoever.

[K. A. Pital]

So intervention or not? Let's see.

Personally if that is it, a worse time could hardly be chosen...

[Mange]

So intervention or not? Let's see.

Personally if that is it, a worse time could hardly be chosen...

I think it would've been quite difficult to capture Novoazovsk without any kind of intervention (artillery and command-and-control support, and the tanks and armored vehicles can't have materialized from thin air) from Russia.

NATO has released satellite pictures of what it claims shows Russian forces (including self-propelled howitzers) inside Ukraine: Twitter

[K. A. Pital]

I already explained the method used to give heavy equipment to the rebels. The vehicles are driven to no mans land in the border crossing. Then the rebels come and take everything that is left.

[Mange]

I already explained the method used to give heavy equipment to the rebels. The vehicles are driven to no mans land in the border crossing. Then the rebels come and take everything that is left.

My apologies Stas, I must've missed it...