Who's next on Shrubby's hitlist?

[Axis Kast]

Our focus will remain on North Korea after Iraq.

Expect to see no more military preemption (outside possible missile strikes like those of the Clinton years) after régime-change in Iraq.

No other dictatorship out there is really as high on the Administration's threat indicator as was Iraq save for North Korea - and they are more or less beyond military action at this point. Bush isn't going to movie without South Korean support - and that's not forthcoming. Stormbringer is correct. Political and diplomatic arm-twisting; nothing more violent.

Syria, Libya, and others are best handled economically. Their financial infrastructures are at this time much more fragile than that in Iraq. They each bet heavily on free exposure to global markets at this point in time and would not do well to be suddenly cut off a la Hussein.

[Iceberg]

North Korea. Definitely North Korea.

[Montcalm]

I voted for North Korea but on your list instead of Cuba you should have written France

[RedImperator]

North Korea is the biggest threat remaining, but a preemptive invasion means that Seoul vanishes in nuclear hellfire, and even if you were a full blown bedsheet wearing racist who might think it's a good thing that millions of South Koreans die, the global financial collapse that would follow the destruction of Seoul would make the war not worth it no matter how well it turned out. Adding Tokyo and possibly Honolulu to that list only exacerbates the problem. The only way we could strike North Korea is if we had cast iron, airtight, 100% positive intelligence about the location of N. Korea's existing nuclear devices to be destroyed in the first strike, and that kind of intelligence simply doesn't exist in the real world, and it's too much of a gamble otherwise. There's no danger of North Korea forcibly unifying the peninsula under Communism--the South Korean army is more than capable of smashing any North Korean invasion despite the numerical disparity, and throwing them back to the Yalu River (not that they'd get that far before the army revolted and overthrew the regime in Pyongyang before Kim Jong Il could order a nuclear strike that would get all the senior government officials and army commanders killed in retaliation). The Chinese, South Koreans, Japanese, and Russians are capable of containing North Korea without our help. The most useful thing we provide is a nuclear gurantee for Japan and South Korea, and we can provide that with SLBMs in the Sea of Japan and not one American GI on the ground on the Peninsula.

Invading Iran would be totally counterproductive at this stage. The government's hold on the population is much weaker than Hussein's is (or was) on his. Something like 75% of the population there is too young to remember the Islamic Revolution and want very badly to be rid of the mullahs. That regime will collapse on its own before it can build a bomb. There's no point unifying the country behind the Islamicists by invading, an a war against Iran would be a damn sight harder than one against Iraq.

The Syrians are assholes, but they're not actively developing WMDs and are no military threat to anyone and aren't in any hurry to prove otherwise after three ass-stompings by Israel in one century.

Lybia is yesterday's news. They've just settled Lockerbie ($10,000,000 per victim), and have been trying to get back into the world's good graces. And frankly, compared to Mullah Omar, Kim Jong Il or Saddam Hussein, Qadaffi is a third-rate threat under any circumstances.

The American strategy for Cuba has been, "Wait for Castro to die" since the 1960s. Castro might be a threat to pro-democracy dissidents in his own country, but not anyone else, and the outcry from all Castro's bed-wetting apologists in this country and elsewhere would be obnoxious enough to not make it worth the bother.

A few other potential candidates:

While it would be satisfying to tell the Saud dynasty told to pack their harems and fly to Brunei, the material and political cost of creating and maintaining a new puppet state on the Arabian peninsula wouldn't be worth the benefit, compared to what could be accomplished by reminding the Crown Prince that the survival of his regime depends on remaining in America's good graces the next time some of his cousins try to build a Wahabbi mosque in Dayton.

China: 500 million potential recruits in a semi-modern army. That and nuclear weapons would ensure any forced regime change there would make the Japanese experience on the mainland look like a picnic. We missed our chance in 1948.

Russia: Thrown in for nostalgia's sake more than anything else.

Keep an eye on Venuzela. Chavez is showing every sign of being a world-class leftist asshole. He's also letting Colombian rebels hide in his territory to avoid retaliation by the Colombian army. Venuzela is also the single largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States. If things keep up at the rate they're going, don't be shocked if we Noreiga his sorry ass in the next few years.

[Knife]

Suadi Arabia!

[Joe]

Keep an eye on Venuzela. Chavez is showing every sign of being a world-class leftist asshole. He's also letting Colombian rebels hide in his territory to avoid retaliation by the Colombian army. Venuzela is also the single largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States. If things keep up at the rate they're going, don't be shocked if we Noreiga his sorry ass in the next few years.

He's Castro's Mini-Me, so to speak.

I should also add that if oil really was the primary motivation of U.S. foriegn policy we'd be going after this guy right fuckin' now.

[Durandal]

There's no way he'll mount a military effort on North Korea. The whole reason we're attacking Iraq is because they don't have nuclear weapons yet. North Korea does, so they'll get diplomacy, if Bush ever gets around to acknowledging that its leader exists. Right now, Bush is just ignoring North Korea entirely, and that's pissing them off and forcing them to clamor for more attention.

[Joe]

He's commented on N. Korea at press conferences a couple times (including smacking down Helen Thomas at one point in the process). To the best of my knowledge, at no point has he suggested military action in this matter.

[Next of Kin]

N. Korea. However, given the fact that the U.S. will soon be reducing it's military presence in Korea, I think it will be dealt with diplomatically.

Hopefully a diplomatic solution can found. Given the fact that N.Korea has a little more 'teeth' than Iraq, do you think the U.S. will be more hesitant to use force to cause a regime change?

[Joe]

N. Korea. However, given the fact that the U.S. will soon be reducing it's military presence in Korea, I think it will be dealt with diplomatically.

Hopefully a diplomatic solution can found. Given the fact that N.Korea has a little more 'teeth' than Iraq, do you think the U.S. will be more hesitant to use force to cause a regime change?

Of course. The U.S. wouldn't gain much by the nuclear annihilation of Seoul (and Jong is crazy enough to do it).

[Enlightenment]

Did you ever stop to consider the fact that diplomacy failed in this stituation because Saddam had no intention of negotiating in good faith?

Relevance?

[Axis Kast]

New evidence has supposedly developed linking Chavez to al-Qaeda. He apparently delivered $1 million in funds to Osama Bin Laden's network just one month after 9/11. There's also furious speculation over the extent of his ties to FARC, a Columbian paramilitary group with clear and acknowledged links to Middle Eastern terrorism. I think we'll see a bit of Adminitration politiking to turn this whole situation in South America onto a new route once the fires in Iraq (literally and figuratively) die down.

Again, I reiterate that most of our focus will be split between Iraq and the North Koreans - whom we will attempt to keep surrounded and under constant observation. As has been said before, there will be no war without South Korea. Not that we'd charge in so soon after Iraq anyway.

Efforts will continue apace to knock off terrorist cells in Pakistan. Expect some back-door dealing to contain Syria. We could potentially see some cruise missile strikes on Iran inside the next decade - depends how aggressive that situation becomes, whether democracy really develops, and how well the new Iraqi state solidifies in upcoming years.

[Frank Hipper]

Suadi Arabia!

SECONDED!!!