Syriza wins Greece election

[K. A. Pital]

The political union preceded the monetary union, especially regarding free travel agreements. Many nations do not accept the Euro or have an opt-out, either with a peg or without a peg, and the peg decision is taken by the central bank.

Sorry, but your words are untrue. The best-performing economies among the 'poorer' nations that classified for EU aid, Poland and Czech, are not and were not, and possibly will not be, in the monetary union. This did not stop them from receiving aid and investment in huge amounts.

[Thanas]

The political union preceded the monetary union, especially regarding free travel agreements. Many nations do not accept the Euro or have an opt-out, either with a peg or without a peg, and the peg decision is taken by the central bank.

Sorry, but your words are untrue. The best-performing economies among the 'poorer' nations that classified for EU aid, Poland and Czech, are not and were not, and possibly will not be, in the monetary union. This did not stop them from receiving aid and investment in huge amounts.

The Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which established the European Union, was tied directly to the Euro.
The Schengen agreement regarding free travel was established in 1995 and changed into EU law in 1999.

[K. A. Pital]

The right to free travel with only your passport was established in 1958 with the Treaty of Rome - which also created the EEC. The Schengen treaty was signed in 1985; Maastricht as you note, was signed 7 years later. How the fuck could the signing in 1985 be 'connected' to a nonexistent treaty?

Stop the bullshit already, I'm sick of it.

[Thanas]

The right to free travel with only your passport was established in 1958 with the Treaty of Rome - which also created the EEC. The Schengen treaty was signed in 1985; Maastricht as you note, was signed 7 years later. How the fuck could the signing in 1985 be 'connected' to a nonexistent treaty?

No matter how much you try to pretend otherwise, European political integration was always tied to economic integration. The Euro is merely the latest in this step as Europe tries to move to a closer union.

If you think the EU is merely a collection of international agreements, then we do have a fundamental disagreement here.

[K. A. Pital]

Even after trancending the collection of agreements and becoming a fully developed confederation, many nations do not accept the common currency. This concerns both well-off ones, like the Scandinavian nations and Denmark, and the less developed ones like Poland and the Czech Republic. Their economies do not collapse, and their citizens do not seem to enjoy a substantially worse life standard than nations fully integrated into the EMU.

Goal-wise the common currency could have well been planned from the start; who knows and who cares?

What I am saying is that it works all right for citizens without it. So maybe the common currency is beneficial to capitalists from developed European powers, as the weakness stemming from uncertaintly drives down prices, making goods competitive, but it does not seem to translate into benefits for the common citizen of the periphery.

How are citizens of Sweden worse off than those of Germany? How are citizens of Poland or the Czech Republic much worse off than Greece or Spain? It simply isn't true, and you know it.

[Tribble]

No matter how much you try to pretend otherwise, European political integration was always tied to economic integration. The Euro is merely the latest in this step as Europe tries to move to a closer union.

If you think the EU is merely a collection of international agreements, then we do have a fundamental disagreement here.

If the ultimate goal is for a total economic, political and monetary union, then the EU has already failed. "More Europe, not less Europe" isn't working. It's sad that even people like Nigel Farage predicted that trying to combine the economies of southern European countries to Northern European countries was going to end poorly, yet none of the bureaucrats in Brussels were willing to listen.

But again that's besides the point. Syriza was elected by the Greek people with a mandate to renegotiate the bail out conditions or potentially even leave the Euro. Thanas, even if the EU is absolutely right in its assertion that the bail out conditions should be followed to the letter, do you honestly believe that telling the Greek voters "your vote doesn't matter, renegotiation is verboten, now shut the fuck up and do as you're told!" is going to end well? Do you honestly believe that the status quo can be maintained in conditions like that, and that Syriza will eventually cave in and become another EU mouthpiece? Do you honestly believe that if Syriza folds that the Greek people will simply roll over and say to themselves that Merkel knows best?

IMO it's far more likely that if Syriza fails to renegotiate and/or fails to leave the Euro and becomes another EU mouthpiece the Greeks will vote for someone who will do whatever it takes to get out, even if its parties like Golden Dawn. Or potentially even worse, you might see outbreaks of violence as the people get fed up with government after government that completely ignores their wishes. This is why I think that the sooner Greece leaves the Euro the better - it's going to happen eventually one way or another, so why insist on dragging things out?

[salm]

When people claim that economic, political and monetary or other unions have or will fail, how long of a time frame do they generally allow before declaring the attempt a failure?

Another interesting question is, that because of the complex nature of such a union it can be expected that, if possible at all, it won´t be a clean, linear transition but one with bumps and smaller or larger regressions. How large may bumps and regressions be until the unionizing attempt is called a failure?

To me it seems that often people are not willing to allow a large enough time frame and will call it a failure after very small bumps. This is not only the case with the EU but with a lot of social, political and economic progres. People just seem to be really bad at dealing with time frames above a certain threshold.

[Thanas]

Even after trancending the collection of agreements and becoming a fully developed confederation, many nations do not accept the common currency. This concerns both well-off ones, like the Scandinavian nations and Denmark, and the less developed ones like Poland and the Czech Republic. Their economies do not collapse, and their citizens do not seem to enjoy a substantially worse life standard than nations fully integrated into the EMU.

Goal-wise the common currency could have well been planned from the start; who knows and who cares?

I do not expect you to care, what with your well-documented history of disgust with any western power bloc. That being said, a lot of people care, especially in Germany. Because otherwise this got to be the biggest heist in human history.

If the ultimate goal is for a total economic, political and monetary union, then the EU has already failed. "More Europe, not less Europe" isn't working. It's sad that even people like Nigel Farage predicted that trying to combine the economies of southern European countries to Northern European countries was going to end poorly, yet none of the bureaucrats in Brussels were willing to listen.

Take a look at the times involved. People have declared the EU a failure in the nineties. It is quite frankly impossible to consider the EU a failure after it has existed for two decades.

But again that's besides the point. Syriza was elected by the Greek people with a mandate to renegotiate the bail out conditions or potentially even leave the Euro.

I hear a lot of value being placed on the 11 million Greek votes, of whom not even half went to Syriza.
What about the 88 million of German votes? You cannot just say that the mandate of Greece is worth more than the mandate of Germany.

Thanas, even if the EU is absolutely right in its assertion that the bail out conditions should be followed to the letter, do you honestly believe that telling the Greek voters "your vote doesn't matter, renegotiation is verboten, now shut the fuck up and do as you're told!" is going to end well?

Yes, eventually.

IMO it's far more likely that if Syriza fails to renegotiate and/or fails to leave the Euro and becomes another EU mouthpiece the Greeks will vote for someone who will do whatever it takes to get out, even if its parties like Golden Dawn. Or potentially even worse, you might see outbreaks of violence as the people get fed up with government after government that completely ignores their wishes. This is why I think that the sooner Greece leaves the Euro the better - it's going to happen eventually one way or another, so why insist on dragging things out?

If Greece wants to leave, they can leave. They can also deal with the consequences then on their own. But they do not want that. What they want is to continue on as before (quite frankly, Syriza talks a lot about reform but all they have done so far is to stop reforms and roll them back) with the EU footing the bill. They also want to continue lying (Seriously, in the same speech the Greek finance minister says "we do not want to burden the tax payers of Europe" and then followed that up with "we need another loan") and not dealing in good faith.

[K. A. Pital]

If you want to strip nation-states of the last vestiges of sovereignity in the name of your chimaera - the votes of their people be damned! - then damn right it's the biggest heist in history.

Germany's voters have no right to determine the fate of Greece. They are not citizens of the place.

[LaCroix]

Well, at the same time, Greek voters have no right to determine the fate of the EU on their own. They either play by the rules the EU as a whole has deemed binding for all member states, and the deals they have made, or they can leave, and try if they can do better on their own. The EU cannot throw states out, but states still have the right to leave.

So if they want, they can go.

Their fate is theirs to decide. They just want to have their cake and eat it.

[K. A. Pital]

They do not determine the 'fate of the EU' - but them walking out is their right.

[Tribble]

@ Thanas, Salm and LaCroix

Perhaps we have miscommunication here. I am saying that the status quo cannot be maintained and that one way or another, either the EU will renegotiate or Greece will end up leaving the Eurozone. I'm not saying those are necessarily the best outcomes, but rather they are the outcomes that are the most likely to happen given the circumstances.

What exactly are the points you are trying to make? Are you suggesting that the status quo will somehow be maintained? Do you believe that if Syriza and its allies cave in that the Greek people will simply shrug their shoulders and say "We'll I guess we had better obey our EU masters!".

I honestly don't see how that's going to happen, I think it's far more likely the Greeks will eventually turn to even more extreme parties like Golden Dawn or perhaps even resort to violence if Syriza becomes another EU mouthpiece, but then again I don't live there.

[Thanas]

They do not determine the 'fate of the EU' - but them walking out is their right.

Yes. That is their right. But their right is not to dictate terms to a majority.

@ Thanas, Salm and LaCroix

Perhaps we have miscommunication here.

I don't see the miscommunication. I see you claiming the EU is a failure, others are disagreeing.

I am saying that the status quo cannot be maintained and that one way or another, either the EU will renegotiate or Greece will end up leaving the Eurozone. I'm not saying those are necessarily the best outcomes, but rather they are the outcomes that are the most likely to happen given the circumstances.

What exactly are the points you are trying to make? Are you suggesting that the status quo will somehow be maintained? Do you believe that if Syriza and its allies cave in that the Greek people will simply shrug their shoulders and say "We'll I guess we had better obey our EU masters!".

I believe Syriza will throw a hissy fit to justify them being elected. I don't believe they are so crazy as to leave the Eurozone. To put it bluntly, their strategy has been to point a gun at their own head and then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger. But everybody is so sick of Greece being treated as something special that the European nations so far pretty much said "go ahead, pull the trigger. We have big enough mops for cleanup."

What I think will most likely happen is that some sort of compromise is found in which some meaningless concessions will be made to allow Greece to save face (like replacing the troika with something that is the same in all but name or turn the power directly over to the ECB) while the debt remains pretty much the same (except maybe some small cuts or further interest postponent - which I already noted as a likely possibility several days back).

I honestly don't see how that's going to happen, I think it's far more likely the Greeks will turn to even more extreme parties like Golden Dawn or perhaps even resort to violence, but then again I don't live in Europe.

Maybe they will, or maybe even probably they will. But that being said, this is not about Greece anymore. This is about the question whether a nation is allowed to demand even more special treatment after getting it for several years already and whether agreements made are worth anything.

[Crown]

I do not expect you to care, what with your well-documented history of disgust with any western power bloc. That being said, a lot of people care (about the Euro/Eurozone ~ Editorial input by Crown), especially in Germany. Because otherwise this got to be the biggest heist in human history.

Define 'a lot of people care, especially in Germany'. Is it 4%?

German public opinion on Greece

So far, the public posturing has had little effect on public opinion within Germany. By and large, Germans are still surprisingly sanguine about Europe and the euro, with soft-Euroscepticism being a niche interest. Even the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the only German party that is widely billed as Eurosceptic, has largely focused on immigration in recent months. The explanation for this conspicuous absence of any upheaval is simple: the south of Europe is largely perceived as someone else’s problem by the German population.

A recent series of Politbarometer polls shows this very clearly. On the one hand, the polling indicates that more than 80 per cent of German voters think the Eurozone crisis will continue, and 40 per cent expect that the situation will further deteriorate in the aftermath of the Greek election result (although almost 50 per cent say that they don’t know what the effect will be). However on the other hand, only four per cent of respondents included the Eurozone crisis in their respective list of the most important political problems facing Germany.

Note; I'm not saying German's don't have strong opinions on Greece and the Grexit in general, we're discussing the Eurozone crisis in particular here.

I hear a lot of value being placed on the 11 million Greek votes, of whom not even half went to Syriza.
What about the 88 million of German votes? You cannot just say that the mandate of Greece is worth more than the mandate of Germany.

Tsipras is polling at 41% approval rating amongst people that voted for ND in the last election (source) as of yesterday, with an overall total of 75% of the population in favour of his stance of renegotiating the deal. There is no equivalent poll in Germany.

Yes, eventually.

The beatings will continue until moral improves eh? I can't believe how deluded you are here. You have no appreciation of who is representing Greece right now.

If Greece wants to leave, they can leave. They can also deal with the consequences then on their own. But they do not want that. What they want is to continue on as before (quite frankly, Syriza talks a lot about reform but all they have done so far is to stop reforms and roll them back) with the EU footing the bill. They also want to continue lying (Seriously, in the same speech the Greek finance minister says "we do not want to burden the tax payers of Europe" and then followed that up with "we need another loan") and not dealing in good faith.

Quote and reference your claims. It has not escaped anyone's attention that in this thread you have made claim after claim with no sourcing and when you are proven to be wrong (I think J is still waiting a response on Iceland) you change tack and slink off again.

You've parroted nearly all the myths that ZEIT have already debunked in quite spectacular form, these being;

• Greek vs German shipowners
• The Greeks are lazy and work less meme
• Tsipra's visit to the war memorial
• Whatever the Germans say they will pay
• Greece not reformed enough

So unless you show me the actual video footage of your claim I'm calling bullshit.

[BabelHuber]

If you want to strip nation-states of the last vestiges of sovereignity in the name of your chimaera - the votes of their people be damned! - then damn right it's the biggest heist in history.

Germany's voters have no right to determine the fate of Greece. They are not citizens of the place.

The (old) Greek government signed the bail out contract with the EU, IMF and ECB after their country was on the verge of bancruptcy.

If the new Greek government now just says "fuck you, we have been voted now, so we do not intend to keep these contracts", wouldn't that mean that it is impossible to sign long-term contracts with democratic states?

After all, every new government could just claim to represent the new voter's opinion and hence would be free to cancel any contract. Note that this works in both directions - a new government in France or Germany could claim that the voters don't want to be a EU net contributor anymore.

I do not see how an organization like the EU could work this way.

[K. A. Pital]

No, you fucking moron, it would simply mean a small and bankrupt nation undergoes a sovereign default - something that happened with many other nations too, and it was not the end of the world.

You cannot strip a nation of its sovereign default right unless you, dunno, occupy it militarily and make it pay regardless of the people's vote or something.

That means bad things for Greece, but it does not mean the EU cannot function or stuff like that.

[BabelHuber]

You haven't understood my point, stupid idiot! My point is that long-term contracts are valid across governments in general, even for democracies!

So when the Greece government can say that a contract is invalid because it was signed by a preceeding government and the voters have changed their minds meanwhile, every democratic government can do this, too!

This of course also applies to EU net contributors, then! So Germany or France could also say "we do not give the EU any money anymore, since our voters have changed their minds meanwhile" after any election!

And this would mean that contracts involving states are worth jack shit in general - any new government would be free to cancel any contract!

How should this work in real life?

[Jub]

No, you fucking moron, it would simply mean a small and bankrupt nation undergoes a sovereign default - something that happened with many other nations too, and it was not the end of the world.

You cannot strip a nation of its sovereign default right unless you, dunno, occupy it militarily and make it pay regardless of the people's vote or something.

That means bad things for Greece, but it does not mean the EU cannot function or stuff like that.

Stas, who exactly put the Greeks into this position? Also, nothing is stopping them from leaving the EU, except knowing that they'll be blackballed after literally taking the money and running.

Simply put Greece can and should be able to fix this and pay back their debts. If they aren't willing to I don't see why anybody should respect them or give a shit about their plight, especially after the people voted for this mess of a government that says a different thing from each side of their mouth.

[Thanas]

Tsipras is polling at 41% approval rating amongst people that voted for ND in the last election (source) as of yesterday, with an overall total of 75% of the population in favour of his stance of renegotiating the deal. There is no equivalent poll in Germany.

Of course there is. Took me less than two seconds of googling to find it, though to be fair I wrote in German.
Link is in German, but I'll translate
Source is the most respected polling group in Germany which is the official basis for all surveys being used in the evening news.

Even after the parliament vote in Greece a majority supports the country remaining in the Eurozone. Almost exactly like two weeks ago 54% (January 1st: 55%) are in favor of Greece keeping the Euro, 36% (Jan 33%). The demands for a debt cut are rejected by most voters, the same as demands for a loosening of austerity rules. 79% of all voters as well as a majority of members of all German parties are in opposition to such changes with only 13% supporting a lessening of the austerity rules. A debt cut is only supported by 20% and rejected by 76%, especially among members of the CDU/CSU (conservatives, 84% against), SPD (social democrats, 73% against) and AFD (right-wing fascists, 69%), but even amonst members of the Green Party (59%) and the Left (socialist-communists, 52%) a rejection of the greek terms is in the majority).

So it seems that every German party is against it and even the radical left parties are against it. So German voters seem to be even more against a debt haircut. Merkel's popular mandate is 4-5% stronger than that of Syriza.

The beatings will continue until moral improves eh? I can't believe how deluded you are here. You have no appreciation of who is representing Greece right now.

I do, I see people who are isolated in Europe, filled with hubris and think they have the right to dictate terms while begging for money. When asked to deliver a plan, said plan was not to make a single concession.

Quote and reference your claims.

What claims? The claim that Syriza is rolling back reforms? He stopped the privatization of the power market and rehired thousands of former bureaucrats. Did you miss that part? It was all over the news. Do you really want me to source that?


EDIT: http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... ve-updates
This is interesting.
EDIT2: In fact, I highly would recommend the guardian's live feeds for this issue.

[Vendetta]

Stas, who exactly put the Greeks into this position? Also, nothing is stopping them from leaving the EU, except knowing that they'll be blackballed after literally taking the money and running.

Simply put Greece can and should be able to fix this and pay back their debts. If they aren't willing to I don't see why anybody should respect them or give a shit about their plight, especially after the people voted for this mess of a government that says a different thing from each side of their mouth.

They are willing to pay back their debts. They are offering the only possible route in which that can actually happen, a reduction in the required surplus and greater internal investment in the form of government spending in order to stimulate the Greek economy.

Austerity as a means to address national debt is like bleeding a patient to remove the ill humours. It's stupid and counterproductive.

If the Greeks need to exit the euro to get away from the quacks that are trying to "heal" their ills then so be it, but they absolutely cannot continue the bleeding "for their own good" because it is destroying their economy and directly reducing their ability to pay back their debts!.

[LaCroix]

You cannot strip a nation of its sovereign default right unless you, dunno, occupy it militarily and make it pay regardless of the people's vote or something.

Nobody took that right from them.

Greece can leave the Eurozone, maybe the EU, too, go back to Drachma, and then the government can default/devaluate their heart out. Nobody will stop them. But that would mean facing the consequences (Much worse than what they are going through right now), and they don't want to do that.

They want everybody else to get creative with their accounting to prop Greece back on its feet for free, because Greece, and... and... and... They got invaded by Germany in WW2!!!

[Thanas]

From the guardian news feed (link above):

GREEK JANUARY BUDGET SHOWS ABOUT €1bn REVENUE SHORTFALL BECAUSE OF DELAYS IN TAX PAYMENTS - DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER TO REUTERS

Taking it seriously, I see.

[Vendetta]

What's probably worth noting at this point for our northern european chums is that the deal Syriza is offering is actually to pay their debts back at a slower rate, rather than to not pay them at all.

[Thanas]

What's probably worth noting at this point for our northern european chums is that the deal Syriza is offering is actually to pay their debts back at a slower rate, rather than to not pay them at all.

Yes, everybody knows that is what they are saying.

But how can you pay back any slower than no debt payments until 2030 and no interest until 2020?

[Vendetta]

By not trying to run an unsustainably large primary surplus via spending cuts when your economy is shrinking faster than you can cut spending.

Because there will be no money by the time the debt payments come due, the policies being enforced as part of the bailout deal are directly causing the economic contraction, Greece's GDP has reduced by 25% since 2007. A quarter of the whole economy disappeared directly due to the cuts required by the troika and you think a billion euro in tax delinquency is Greece's "problem". These are the tiniest of possible beans compared to the bleeding by economic quacks who think austerity isn't the single stupidest thing to do in a recession!

If the creditor nations want anything at all back, they'd stop insisting on policies based on ideology not reality.

But they don't, because the same damnfool economists who crashed the global economy seven years ago are still at it, crippling national economies because they put ideology ahead of reality.