Ukraine War Thread

[Simon_Jester]

Ah. So, the international equivalent of the guy who "just wants what's his" to such an extent that he is totally unable to conceptualize that it might not be his, or that someone else has rights to it too.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Ah. So, the international equivalent of the guy who "just wants what's his" to such an extent that he is totally unable to conceptualize that it might not be his, or that someone else has rights to it too.

Or rather to be more precise, a positive feedback system.

[Tiriol]

So that we can see even larger civil wars as Putin represses the large majority of the Ukraine, Estonia, Poland, etc. that want to remain sovereign countries?

But how is that OUR problem? What practical gain does the average citizen of say Germany have from the welfare of the average citizen of say Estonia? We know that Putin is not going to actually go up against any serious OTAN nation like Germany. So knowing the big pieces are safe, what loss do we have from sacrificing a few pawns?

Edit: Just to be clear, I am not advocating this.

Me neither. But it's an argument I've heard often enough. And I want to see what you guys have to say about it.

First of all, thanks for clarifying that you are not advocating this. Makes it much easier to engage in a conversational manner.

Secondly...

The argument could be applied to gay rights, as well. Why should the majority care if, say, Christian radicals block equal marriage right or lobby to re-define homosexuality as a disease or, in the very least, impose sanctions on "gay propaganda"? It doesn't really affect them on practical level and might keep the radicals relatively satisfied. Really, shouldn't we look at the big picture?

Also same arguments can be applied to ISIS, Taleban etc. The only difference is, of course, is that Russia is stronger. However, why should the rest of the West care about American problems with Jihadist terrorists as long as their own citizens are safe and sound?

There's also the fact that at least Baltic States belong to both the EU and NATO. If Germany, USA and the rest figuratively throw them to the wolves, both international organizations lose credibility in a big way. And domestic political enemies in, say, Britain would have a field day of "new Poland -39" situation.

[K. A. Pital]

What are you guys talking about? Russia cannot feasibly win a war with a NATO nation as this by default would be a war with NATO.

Ukraine, however, is not in NATO.

[Purple]

First of all, thanks for clarifying that you are not advocating this. Makes it much easier to engage in a conversational manner.

Secondly...

The argument could be applied to gay rights, as well. Why should the majority care if, say, Christian radicals block equal marriage right or lobby to re-define homosexuality as a disease or, in the very least, impose sanctions on "gay propaganda"? It doesn't really affect them on practical level and might keep the radicals relatively satisfied. Really, shouldn't we look at the big picture?

Also same arguments can be applied to ISIS, Taleban etc. The only difference is, of course, is that Russia is stronger. However, why should the rest of the West care about American problems with Jihadist terrorists as long as their own citizens are safe and sound?

To play devils advocate for a moment I am going to say. Yes, yes it could. And I have heard it being applied to all of those. But you have not actually given me anything that demonstrates it is wrong to do so.

[Tiriol]

First of all, thanks for clarifying that you are not advocating this. Makes it much easier to engage in a conversational manner.

Secondly...

The argument could be applied to gay rights, as well. Why should the majority care if, say, Christian radicals block equal marriage right or lobby to re-define homosexuality as a disease or, in the very least, impose sanctions on "gay propaganda"? It doesn't really affect them on practical level and might keep the radicals relatively satisfied. Really, shouldn't we look at the big picture?

Also same arguments can be applied to ISIS, Taleban etc. The only difference is, of course, is that Russia is stronger. However, why should the rest of the West care about American problems with Jihadist terrorists as long as their own citizens are safe and sound?

To play devils advocate for a moment I am going to say. Yes, yes it could. And I have heard it being applied to all of those. But you have not actually given me anything that demonstrates it is wrong to do so.

Being right or wrong is an ethical and moral choice, though. If one's ethics and morals are constructed in such a manner that so long as at least majority are safe and sound, it isn't really their concern what happens to minority, then there's not much one can argue based on values. However, then enlightened self-interest should come into play: one day I, too, can be in a minority. Then arguments about helping minority could consistently be applied to me. Therefore, in order to prevent me being in a position where I am to be sacrificed for the perceived greater good of majority, I should, out of self-interest if nothing more, care about minorities.

One could also argue that even majority can operate based on information that is false ("Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and is ready to use them against us" or "gays spread AIDS to children" or "witch doctors steal men's penises"). In such case, simply letting an interest group deal with the minority in a way they want (invade Iraq; persecute gays; lynch people suspected of being witches) is pretty stupid, even if it's not realized at that time. Furthermore, simply letting a minority to suffer can have devastating or harmful consequences in the long run even for the majority (since the Nazis persecuted Jews, several prominent Jewish scientists and artists fled Germany and in the long run this hampered both German culture and scientific advancement). Simply saying "let the minority suffer so that majority can prosper" isn't long-term thinking and can cause very negative reactions.

[Purple]

That argument only works for as long as the threat can actually rebound though. It does not hold up to situations when we know with absolute certainty that it won't. And in this situation we know with absolute certainty that Putin is not going to go and try to recreate Berlin 45.

[Tiriol]

That argument only works for as long as the threat can actually rebound though. It does not hold up to situations when we know with absolute certainty that it won't. And in this situation we know with absolute certainty that Putin is not going to go and try to recreate Berlin 45.

Russia doesn't need to do so (invade or to go full Soviet Union) in order for the threat to re-bound. Imagine, for instance, that EU would now meekly let Russia do whatever it wants without even a protest or such small protests that it's one and the same: Eastern Ukraine would secede from Ukraine and Russia could claim victory (moral, economical, military, whatever). EU's prestige and believablity would suffer and no foreign state with more powerful neighbour would trust EU ever again to keep its back. It would also send dangerous signals to smaller EU states close to Russia: if Russia pushes EU, EU's larger nations are ready to sacrifice us. It would weaken EU's integrity and actually lessen Germany's (I use Germany as an example, since Berlin -45 was already mentioned) influence, since those other nations would rather make one-on-one dealings with each other (and Russia) and keep Germany out of the loop, since clearly it isn't really interested in any EU's common good or the good of those smaller nations.

Realpolitik is often touted as the end-all truth of our ages. In reality, however, it isn't only "strong rule the weak and weak must obey or be crushed": it's in those weaker states and nations' self-interest to turn away from stronger nations who don't hold their promises and don't back them up if other stronger nation goes for it. And in current days when global economics and international politics are so important, no nation can go "fuck 'em, I don't need those pesky little countries anyway really" without repercussions. Not even Russia (or it wouldn't be so eager to re-create old Soviet sphere of influence in Europe), Germany (who isn't about conquering and invading, but is all about business and you can't do business if others don't think you're reliable), US, China etc. Hell, even Roman Empire kept its promises to allied tribes and vassal countries despite being much more brutal and callous than Russia could even hope to be and on an entirely different level of hegemony than even USA during 1990s.

[Purple]

That works. I'll try it out next time and see how it gets through.

[cosmicalstorm]

I do not like this situation. 1914, 1939... 2015?

[Simon_Jester]

Again, large scale war really is very unlikely. The reason this war is happening is precisely because it is right on Russia's border. The US and the EU may not want Russia to succeed in snapping the Ukraine in half but they're not going to attack a nuclear power over the issue. Conversely, the Russians' territorial aims are not expansionist in the sense of, say, Nazi Germany.

The basis for a major war just isn't there.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Again, large scale war really is very unlikely. The reason this war is happening is precisely because it is right on Russia's border. The US and the EU may not want Russia to succeed in snapping the Ukraine in half but they're not going to attack a nuclear power over the issue. Conversely, the Russians' territorial aims are not expansionist in the sense of, say, Nazi Germany.

The basis for a major war just isn't there.

Honestly? I would like the war to bloody end. Kiev talks to its own bloody people like you know, they are their actual citizens and stop shelling them and sending poorly trained soldiers to their damn deaths as flippantly as the Red Army was in the worst of World War II.

Then Russia makes some form of reparations for taking Crimea and helps Ukraine rebuild. The West leaves Ukraine alone (and Georgia) and Ukraine is declared some kind of neutral zone.

But somehow? I don't see that happening. Too much pig headed nonsense going on now. Ultimately, the Ukrainians suffer the most and I have seen enough videos on Youtube with dead bodies and what not from the fighting. This has got to be the first war where social media has been truly used in a really macabre fashion. Never mind noisy proclamations on Twitter or Facebook by Ukrainian politicians declaring great victories and then blaming Russia every damn time their army gets routed due to sheer incompetence.

[cosmicalstorm]

Again, large scale war really is very unlikely. The reason this war is happening is precisely because it is right on Russia's border. The US and the EU may not want Russia to succeed in snapping the Ukraine in half but they're not going to attack a nuclear power over the issue. Conversely, the Russians' territorial aims are not expansionist in the sense of, say, Nazi Germany.

The basis for a major war just isn't there.

This time everyone has nukes. That is really good and bad, it is what could make this stop now like you describe. But there is something toxic about the situation that I don't like. The situation seems ripe for a chain of escalation that might be hard to stop with the kind of geopolitical logic described by you. If the US or anyone else starts shipping weapons I could see the war suddenly expanding and starting the chain of feedback that is nasty and unstoppable.

[Mange]

Never mind noisy proclamations on Twitter or Facebook by Ukrainian politicians declaring great victories and then blaming Russia every damn time their army gets routed due to sheer incompetence.

Yes, it's not like those T-72B3s, the 9A52-4 missile system (introduced to the Russian military as late as last year and which the OSCE suspects was used to strike Kramatorsk the other day) and the seemingly endless supply of ammunition the "separatists" have have anything to do with it...

[cosmicalstorm]

Well a peace treaty have been signed. Some needed time to resupply and regroup for the Russian invasion. I wonder when they will begin the next offensive? Wendesday? Thursday?
When does the wintermud go away there?
Also, did Ukraine agree to redraw troops from Mauripol and Debaltseve? I wonder how long until "concerned citizens of Ukraine are seen posting the streets in those towns"

[Simon_Jester]

During World War Two, major offensive operations on the Eastern Front were typically shut down until... what, April? Then again, here both sides are using equipment designed to cope with Russian weather, plus there are no doubt a LOT more paved roads in the Ukraine now than there were in the 1940s.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well it's pretty obvious that the reforms to its military that Ukraine badly needs (since their incompetence means that arms shipments by themselves aren't going to achieve anything), even if they start right away with US/EU support are going to take months if not years to come into effect. Of course that woin't do jack to help those in the conflict zone in the meantime; it would seem to be in Ukraine's advantage for the cease-fire to hold. Russia- not so much.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Well it's pretty obvious that the reforms to its military that Ukraine badly needs (since their incompetence means that arms shipments by themselves aren't going to achieve anything), even if they start right away with US/EU support are going to take months if not years to come into effect. Of course that woin't do jack to help those in the conflict zone in the meantime; it would seem to be in Ukraine's advantage for the cease-fire to hold. Russia- not so much.

That should have been the logic that Ukraine should have undertaken a month ago. But it didn't stop it from shelling here and there and launching an attack on the airport.

[Irbis]

Well a peace treaty have been signed. Some needed time to resupply and regroup for the Russian invasion. I wonder when they will begin the next offensive? Wendesday? Thursday?

Explain one thing for me. Why, oh why - if we buy the message Ukrainian propaganda sells - of evil Russia wanting to crush and rape Ukraine, do Ukrainians flee to the very invading Russia?

And no, these are not eastern Ukrainians, from conflict zone. These are western Ukrainians, Maidan supporters, from the part 1000 km away from the fighting:

Ukraine: draft dodgers face jail as Kiev struggles to find new fighters

Journalist Ruslan Kotsaba, arrested after refusing to fight in video addressed to Petro Poroshenko, is among many weary of conflict that has killed 5,000

Ruslan Kotsaba posted a video addressed to the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, last week in which he said he would rather go to prison for five years for draft-dodging than fight pro-Russia rebels in the country’s east. Now he faces 15 years in jail after being arrested for treason and obstructing the military.

His case is symptomatic of Kiev’s difficulties in mobilising a war-weary society to continue the fight against the rebels, who appear to have an unlimited supply of weapons and training from Russia. As the country nears bankruptcy and the reform programme demanded by the Maidan revolution last year is sidelined by the war effort, the drive to call up new recruits is floundering.

The conflict has cost more than 5,000 lives since it began last spring and Russia shows no signs of toning down its backing for the separatist movement. Poroshenko is due to meet his Russian, French and German counterparts in Minsk on Wednesday, and the financial and emotional burden of months of conflict could mean Ukraine is forced to accept a deal that effectively gives up control of rebel-held territory.

Ukrainian men aged 25-60 are eligible for conscription and 75,000 have been called up, of whom 60% will enter service, Poroshenko claimed last week. Preference is given to men with military experience.

A government decree regulates foreign travel for those subject to mobilisation. It means people could be arrested at border checkpoints, with those guilty of draft-dodging facing up to five years in prison – a law which provided the basis for Kotsaba’s video.

Amnesty International has called on Ukrainian authorities to free the journalist immediately and declared him a prisoner of conscience.

“You can take different views on Ruslan Kotsaba’s position, but by arresting him for stating a particular viewpoint, the Ukrainian authorities are violating the key human right of freedom of thought, which Ukrainians stood up for on the Maidan,” said Tetiana Mazur, director of Amnesty International in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian security services claim that Kotsaba’s arrest has nothing to do with his journalistic activities. “This is not a fight against Kotsaba as [a] journalist, but there are suspicions against him as a citizen of Ukraine,” said SBU senior adviser Markian Lubkivskyi, who said officers had found “evidence of serious crimes” among Kotsaba’s belongings. He declined to elaborate.

The government has denied there is a major problem with mobilisation, and Pavlo Kyshar, an MP who fought with the Donbass volunteer battalion, said there are few people who do not want to fight.

But testimony from the regions, especially in western Ukraine, tells a different story.

“At least here mobilisation has been a total failure,” said Iryna Vereshchuk, mayor of the small town of Rava-Ruska, in the far west of Ukraine. “People don’t understand what they are fighting against. If it’s a war, why has no war been declared? Why are ordinary people being called up to take part in a fight against terrorists?”

The government has avoided officially declaring a state of war, instead referring to the operations in the east as an anti-terrorism operation, despite clear evidence of Russian military incursion. Part of the reason for this is the fact that Kiev would have trouble securing a much-needed support package from the International Monetary Fund if it was officially at war.

“Martial law would mean a lot of restrictions, including on freedom of speech, democratic freedoms and would have a lot of consequences. It would be the complete transfer of the country on to a military track,” said Ihor Lapin, a fighter with the Aidar volunteer battalion who is now an MP.

Vereshchuk said attitudes have hardened in her town as locals who went to fight returned in coffins. Of about 100 call-up papers meant to be distributed as part of the latest wave of mobilisation, only six had been given out. In the other cases, the men had hidden or could not be found, she said.

“We still have diplomatic and financial links with Russia and yet people are saying we have to go and fight their troops and die,” said Vereshchuk. “If our region was coming under attack, people would take up arms, but they are not ready to go to the east and end up killing other Ukrainian citizens.”

The fear of conscription has been exploited by the Russians, with the president, Vladimir Putin, ordering officials to change laws to allow any Ukrainian men escaping the draft to stay in Russia for longer.

“Ukrainian citizens cannot stay in Russia for more than 30 days. After that they have to return to Ukraine where they are being caught and sent under the bullets again. That is why I think that we are going to change something in that law,” said Putin with carefully calibrated concern.

Long story short - after government announced they will bury rebels in bodies by means of 1941 style sustained human wave attacks by conscripts with zero military training, no NCOs, and single 40 year old AK per head people started to have second thoughts about such genius military strategy (no, really, rebel guns slaughtering a few dozen thousands of them would be great PR victory for Poroshenko) and voted with their legs.

Of course, government didn't like that and in truly 'democratic' style issued presidential order forbidding all males aged 18-45 to travel abroad, with slavishly Russophobic countries of east EU heeding the call and closing the borders to/expelling people who looked like useful cannon fodder (which honestly made me sick when I read about it in Polish press). Now, it looks like only hiding, huge bribe, or running into separatist controlled zone can save you from what is pretty much death penalty. Truly EU standards, eh?

I especially like the threatening bit on the journalist - I wonder how long it will take for a proof of him being KGB (and NKVD for good measure) agent to show up, fresh from the printers

Last time I heard, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Russia was nearing 1 mln, and that number would fall pretty soon if not for ceasefire. If someone told me 4 months ago western Ukrainians would be a big part of that number, that Ukraine would be nearly sunk by anti-Russian sanctions, and Russia's economy would be propped up by influx of cheap, highly educated Ukrainian youth I'd call him mad. The irony...

[Vympel]

Reports are that Russia applied immense pressure on the rebels to accept the deal. Russia doesn't want this to continue, for obvious reasons. As for Ukraine using the cease fire to regroup and attack again, I imagine Russia's attitude is "whatever". There's no scenario where they don't lose a fight with Russian-backed rebels.

[The Romulan Republic]

I hope that Putin has realized this has gone too far and is willing to have it end here, but I'm skeptical.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I hope that Putin has realized this has gone too far and is willing to have it end here, but I'm skeptical.

Technically speaking, if you are asking about "how far" everyone has gone, there's plenty of "far". Since Kiev has done a lot on its own accord to alienate its own people.

So quite frankly, what Putin did was "give the Kievan government the tools to screw itself over".

This is far from over. There's still the matter of volunteer battalions and it's still not clear if they can be brought to heel as well. Never mind the private Oligarch armies. Just not too long ago, the Aidar Battalion staged a rally in front of the Ministry of Defense over disbandment.

http://tass.ru/en/world/775035

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Never mind noisy proclamations on Twitter or Facebook by Ukrainian politicians declaring great victories and then blaming Russia every damn time their army gets routed due to sheer incompetence.

Yes, it's not like those T-72B3s, the 9A52-4 missile system (introduced to the Russian military as late as last year and which the OSCE suspects was used to strike Kramatorsk the other day) and the seemingly endless supply of ammunition the "separatists" have have anything to do with it...

So? I have no doubt the Russians have supplied the separatists with equipment. I have seen photos of them. But if you honestly think the incompetence of the Ukrainian army isn't a major factor in this, you are sorely mistaken.

[cosmicalstorm]

Well a peace treaty have been signed. Some needed time to resupply and regroup for the Russian invasion. I wonder when they will begin the next offensive? Wendesday? Thursday?

Explain one thing for me. Why, oh why - if we buy the message Ukrainian propaganda sells - of evil Russia wanting to crush and rape Ukraine, do Ukrainians flee to the very invading Russia?

And no, these are not eastern Ukrainians, from conflict zone. These are western Ukrainians, Maidan supporters, from the part 1000 km away from the fighting:

Ukraine: draft dodgers face jail as Kiev struggles to find new fighters

Journalist Ruslan Kotsaba, arrested after refusing to fight in video addressed to Petro Poroshenko, is among many weary of conflict that has killed 5,000

Ruslan Kotsaba posted a video addressed to the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, last week in which he said he would rather go to prison for five years for draft-dodging than fight pro-Russia rebels in the country’s east. Now he faces 15 years in jail after being arrested for treason and obstructing the military.

His case is symptomatic of Kiev’s difficulties in mobilising a war-weary society to continue the fight against the rebels, who appear to have an unlimited supply of weapons and training from Russia. As the country nears bankruptcy and the reform programme demanded by the Maidan revolution last year is sidelined by the war effort, the drive to call up new recruits is floundering.

The conflict has cost more than 5,000 lives since it began last spring and Russia shows no signs of toning down its backing for the separatist movement. Poroshenko is due to meet his Russian, French and German counterparts in Minsk on Wednesday, and the financial and emotional burden of months of conflict could mean Ukraine is forced to accept a deal that effectively gives up control of rebel-held territory.

Ukrainian men aged 25-60 are eligible for conscription and 75,000 have been called up, of whom 60% will enter service, Poroshenko claimed last week. Preference is given to men with military experience.

A government decree regulates foreign travel for those subject to mobilisation. It means people could be arrested at border checkpoints, with those guilty of draft-dodging facing up to five years in prison – a law which provided the basis for Kotsaba’s video.

Amnesty International has called on Ukrainian authorities to free the journalist immediately and declared him a prisoner of conscience.

“You can take different views on Ruslan Kotsaba’s position, but by arresting him for stating a particular viewpoint, the Ukrainian authorities are violating the key human right of freedom of thought, which Ukrainians stood up for on the Maidan,” said Tetiana Mazur, director of Amnesty International in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian security services claim that Kotsaba’s arrest has nothing to do with his journalistic activities. “This is not a fight against Kotsaba as [a] journalist, but there are suspicions against him as a citizen of Ukraine,” said SBU senior adviser Markian Lubkivskyi, who said officers had found “evidence of serious crimes” among Kotsaba’s belongings. He declined to elaborate.

The government has denied there is a major problem with mobilisation, and Pavlo Kyshar, an MP who fought with the Donbass volunteer battalion, said there are few people who do not want to fight.

But testimony from the regions, especially in western Ukraine, tells a different story.

“At least here mobilisation has been a total failure,” said Iryna Vereshchuk, mayor of the small town of Rava-Ruska, in the far west of Ukraine. “People don’t understand what they are fighting against. If it’s a war, why has no war been declared? Why are ordinary people being called up to take part in a fight against terrorists?”

The government has avoided officially declaring a state of war, instead referring to the operations in the east as an anti-terrorism operation, despite clear evidence of Russian military incursion. Part of the reason for this is the fact that Kiev would have trouble securing a much-needed support package from the International Monetary Fund if it was officially at war.

“Martial law would mean a lot of restrictions, including on freedom of speech, democratic freedoms and would have a lot of consequences. It would be the complete transfer of the country on to a military track,” said Ihor Lapin, a fighter with the Aidar volunteer battalion who is now an MP.

Vereshchuk said attitudes have hardened in her town as locals who went to fight returned in coffins. Of about 100 call-up papers meant to be distributed as part of the latest wave of mobilisation, only six had been given out. In the other cases, the men had hidden or could not be found, she said.

“We still have diplomatic and financial links with Russia and yet people are saying we have to go and fight their troops and die,” said Vereshchuk. “If our region was coming under attack, people would take up arms, but they are not ready to go to the east and end up killing other Ukrainian citizens.”

The fear of conscription has been exploited by the Russians, with the president, Vladimir Putin, ordering officials to change laws to allow any Ukrainian men escaping the draft to stay in Russia for longer.

“Ukrainian citizens cannot stay in Russia for more than 30 days. After that they have to return to Ukraine where they are being caught and sent under the bullets again. That is why I think that we are going to change something in that law,” said Putin with carefully calibrated concern.

Long story short - after government announced they will bury rebels in bodies by means of 1941 style sustained human wave attacks by conscripts with zero military training, no NCOs, and single 40 year old AK per head people started to have second thoughts about such genius military strategy (no, really, rebel guns slaughtering a few dozen thousands of them would be great PR victory for Poroshenko) and voted with their legs.

Of course, government didn't like that and in truly 'democratic' style issued presidential order forbidding all males aged 18-45 to travel abroad, with slavishly Russophobic countries of east EU heeding the call and closing the borders to/expelling people who looked like useful cannon fodder (which honestly made me sick when I read about it in Polish press). Now, it looks like only hiding, huge bribe, or running into separatist controlled zone can save you from what is pretty much death penalty. Truly EU standards, eh?

I especially like the threatening bit on the journalist - I wonder how long it will take for a proof of him being KGB (and NKVD for good measure) agent to show up, fresh from the printers

Last time I heard, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Russia was nearing 1 mln, and that number would fall pretty soon if not for ceasefire. If someone told me 4 months ago western Ukrainians would be a big part of that number, that Ukraine would be nearly sunk by anti-Russian sanctions, and Russia's economy would be propped up by influx of cheap, highly educated Ukrainian youth I'd call him mad. The irony...

Because they are treated well in Russia? Because Ukraine is run by corrupt morons who don't know when it's time to surrender? I don't think Russians are babyrapists. They want to restore Ukraine to a buffer because they remember the utter destruction of Russia in WW2.
I think the leaders of Ukraine are stupid, but then they have been selected over a period of intense internal strife and that does not produce smartness.
Russia can crush Ukraine, and they almost certainly will if Ukraine does not side with them again.
Look at the US and Cuba. Monroe something. I guess this is how it works.

It is weird to follow a conflict like this, a bit like watching a hologram from different directions. Ukraine should be able to do what it wants and side with who it wants. Ukraine is influenced by westerners like the CIA and IMF to go west. Ukraine is influenced by Russians who want it to move east. Everyone produces propaganda to this or that or just to confuse everyone else about the entire conflict. Russia should not have to fear another WW2 but they do and they want secure borders to avoid that.

I think Ukraine will lose about half of it's area to Russia in the end. Russia is pressed by the low oilprices and by the sanctions but it is also pressed by the need to maintain a strong image of the leaders as resolute and non backing.

50 % the conflict calms down to some kind of frozen stalemate with the odd bombings thrown in for years to come.
50 % it restarts in a few days and ends when Russia has control over enough space to secure Crimea from future blockade actions.

It is annoying that media still refers to the Russian invasionary force as rebels. Silly.

[Vympel]

It is annoying that media still refers to the Russian invasionary force as rebels. Silly.

The overwhelming majority of the fighters of the DNR and LPR are locals. Even NATO is saying that. Its in the article I posted earlier.

the 9A52-4 missile system (introduced to the Russian military as late as last year and which the OSCE suspects was used to strike Kramatorsk the other day)

Erm - what? 9A52 Smerch (Tornado) is a late 1980s system. Whoever said it was introduced "late as last year" is either a huge liar, or confusing it with Russia's new Tornado-G, which is a massively modernised new-production Grad (i.e. 122mm rockets) - i.e. a system which has nothing to do with the original Smerch (i.e. 300mm rockets).

In any event, there hasn't been a T-72B3 spotted in a while AFAIK. I imagine they've been withdrawn (i.e. they weren't handed over to the rebels, they were used by Russian regulars. Speculating, but sounds plausible given how new the upgrade is). All I've seen lately is T-64BV and T-72B tanks.