How long before the US defeats Saddam?

Balrog · Post by **Balrog** » 2003-03-20 06:08pm

Any guesses?

Post by **Gandalf** » 2003-03-20 06:37pm

I give it a few weeks.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2003-03-20 07:11pm

I'd say a few weeks at least. Saddam's forces are weaker than they were in the first Gulf War, but he isn't going to give up without a fight. Of course, after we get him out, we'll have to keep some troops there to keep the peace, and that's going to take a couple of months.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-03-20 07:14pm

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi wrote:I'd say a few weeks at least. Saddam's forces are weaker than they were in the first Gulf War, but he isn't going to give up without a fight. Of course, after we get him out, we'll have to keep some troops there to keep the peace, and that's going to take a couple of months.

More like many years. You're not going to solve this by killing Saddam, leaving a couple of divisions around till June, and then leaving.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2003-03-20 07:50pm

It's way too early to tell how long it'll take to secure control of Iraq. If Iraqi forces overthrow the government it could be days. If they fight to the last man standing with urban warfare in Basra and Baghdad, it could be months. If the Kurds fight the Americans there could be a low-intensity war going on for years if not decades. If the Turks or Iranians get involved then all bets are off.

In any case the occupation will need to be maintained for years or decades.

Andrew J. · Post by **Andrew J.** » 2003-03-20 08:27pm

A couple of months, I think.

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2003-03-20 09:30pm

A few weeks in combat, the first week will be the big hit. But we'll be mopping up with years of occupation.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-03-20 09:44pm

Less then a week of heavy fighting unless dams are blown and there must be a delay in river crossings. Followed by a possibul siege of Baghdad or more likely a period of skirmishing with diehards while there's a nation wide search for Saddam and his elite. US troops will remain in the country for years in at least corps strength, likely more.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-03-20 09:47pm

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi wrote:I'd say a few weeks at least. Saddam's forces are weaker than they were in the first Gulf War, but he isn't going to give up without a fight. Of course, after we get him out, we'll have to keep some troops there to keep the peace, and that's going to take a couple of months.

Even if the Iraqi Army and Republican guard blew up there own equipment and weapons, killed Saddam and his associates and then dispersed back there homes while all the opposite groups banded together to help rebuild we'd need troops for several years.

Balrog · Post by **Balrog** » 2003-03-21 03:38am

The war takes weeks, but the occupation will take years, perhaps a decade

Plus with France and Germany suddenly warming up to us in order to "help out" post-Saddam Iraq *cough cough*

Post by **Edi** » 2003-03-21 04:02am

It'll take weeks to defeat the Iraqi military and end hostilities, followed by years of rebuilding and restructuring of the country.

A Finnish military expert from our Military Academy yesterday predicted US military victory around the end of April or early May.

Edi

Pcm979 · Post by **Pcm979** » 2003-03-21 04:10am

Darth Wong wrote:More like many years. You're not going to solve this by killing Saddam, leaving a couple of divisions around till June, and then leaving.

Why not? I thought that was what they did in Afganastan.

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-03-21 07:03am

It seems like Saddam is pulling in all his troops into a ring of steel around Baghdad, leaving the rest of Iraq to the allies. I can't think of any other reason for the rapid US ground advance.

That makes it a matter of months long fighting.

The Nice Guy

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 08:05am

The_Nice_Guy wrote:It seems like Saddam is pulling in all his troops into a ring of steel around Baghdad, leaving the rest of Iraq to the allies. I can't think of any other reason for the rapid US ground advance.

That makes it a matter of months long fighting.

The Nice Guy

If he does that he is a idiot, betting you nation on a city?..but hey, its Uncle Saddam...

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 08:07am

Time to dispose of Iraq's army, 2-3 weeks. mop up of two months.possibly 5-8 years of occupation of some kind or another.

Zoink · Post by **Zoink** » 2003-03-21 08:23am

Hopefully Saddam is knocked-off and his defense collapses, with troops rolling into Baghdad with little resistance.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 08:34am

Zoink wrote:Hopefully Saddam is knocked-off and his defense collapses, with troops rolling into Baghdad with little resistance.

One always hopes so, but you never plan on it.

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-03-21 09:03am

Stuart Mackey wrote:If he does that he is a idiot, betting you nation on a city?..but hey, its Uncle Saddam...

Actually, I think it's a pretty good move. I think everybody knows his troops have zero chance of victory out in the open, where they'll be begging to be smashed by armored columns and air strikes. So why throw away troops in inefffective combat?

Whether or not they have a better chance(more than zero) in city fighting is going to be interesting, to say the least.

He could afford to lose the desert territory, but he cannot afford to lose his cities or his army. By pulling into the environs in and around Baghdad and fighting a la Stalingrad, he could make the US flinch if his troops could inflict enough casualties or prolong the war enough.

The rest of Iraq can always be reclaimed if he wins, but he'll need his army, the bedrock of his power, to do the reclaiming.

In this case, yeah, city and army comes before a nation.

The Nice Guy

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2003-03-21 09:23am

Stuart Mackey wrote:
Zoink wrote:Hopefully Saddam is knocked-off and his defense collapses, with troops rolling into Baghdad with little resistance.
One always hopes so, but you never plan on it.

I think the only resistance will be Saddam`s republican guards.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 09:36am

The_Nice_Guy wrote: In this case, yeah, city and army comes before a nation.

The Nice Guy

Err, by putting his armies in citys he cedes the nation to the enemy, but more importantly he cedes the enemy all possible inicitive, he grants the enemy the ability to resupply at will {like they dont already, but still}. You can regain citys, but not a country. He will be surrounded and redused, with no chance to influence events outside of his city the nation will effetivly be changed according to what America wants. America wont flinch in this, Saddam will loose, not as quickly as open warfare, but loose just the same.

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-03-21 09:53am

You can't regain even a city without an army. And his army would be lost if he tried to keep his nation. It's just sand, right?

Yeah, I think it's just prolonging the inevitable too, but to Saddam, that's the only game left in town. He can't throw away his troops out in the open.

Why can't the idiot just surrender!?!

The Nice Guy

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 09:58am

The_Nice_Guy wrote:You can't regain even a city without an army. And his army would be lost if he tried to keep his nation. It's just sand, right?

Yeah, I think it's just prolonging the inevitable too, but to Saddam, that's the only game left in town. He can't throw away his troops out in the open.

Why can't the idiot just surrender!?!

The Nice Guy

Well, as you say, he is an idiot.

Post by **Zaia** » 2003-03-21 10:15am

Stuart Mackey wrote:Time to dispose of Iraq's army, 2-3 weeks. mop up of two months.possibly 5-8 years of occupation of some kind or another.

So does that mean that my friends could end up staying down there for almost a decade?!?!!!!! That would fuckin' suck. They were told to expect to be there for a couple months but that they might be there for a year or two...not eight or ten.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-03-21 10:17am

Zaia wrote:
Stuart Mackey wrote:Time to dispose of Iraq's army, 2-3 weeks. mop up of two months.possibly 5-8 years of occupation of some kind or another.
So does that mean that my friends could end up staying down there for almost a decade?!?!!!!! That would fuckin' suck. They were told to expect to be there for a couple months but that they might be there for a year or two...not eight or ten.

Well you never know exactly in a war, no plan survives first contact with the enemy, to use a well worn phrase.

Post by **Vympel** » 2003-03-21 10:18am

Zaia wrote: So does that mean that my friends could end up staying down there for almost a decade?!?!!!!! That would fuckin' suck. They were told to expect to be there for a couple months but that they might be there for a year or two...not eight or ten.

Nothing to fear- units would be rotated in and out- 1-2 years sounds about right.

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How long before the US defeats Saddam?

How long will it take the US to defeat Saddam?

How long before the US defeats Saddam?