Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gloom

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Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gloom

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http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/02/world/iran-nuclear-talks/
Lausanne, Switzerland (CNN)There are plenty of details left to iron out, but negotiators took a significant step Thursday toward a landmark deal aimed at keeping Iran's nuclear program peaceful.

After a marathon stretch of late-night negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland, diplomats announced they'd come up with the framework for an agreement that's been months in the making.

Iran would reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% and significantly scale back its number of installed centrifuges, according to the plan. In exchange, the United States and the European Union would lift sanctions that have crippled the country's economy.

"It is a good deal, a deal that meets our core objectives," U.S. President Barack Obama said in a speech from the White House Rose Garden. "This framework would cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon."

The deal would include strict verification measures to make sure Iran complies, he said.

"If Iran cheats," Obama said, "the world will know it."

Key points of the deal

New chapter in U.S.-Iranian relations?

The world powers involved in the talks with Iran were the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

For the United States and Iran, two countries with a long history of strained relations, the negotiations took on an added significance.

Just two years ago, they hadn't talked with each other officially in nearly four decades.

"I think there was a seriousness of purpose," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told CNN in an interview shortly after the framework was announced. "People negotiated hard. It was tough, very intense at times, sometimes emotional and confrontational. It was a very intensive process, because the stakes are very high, and because there is a long history of not talking to each other. For 35 years, we haven't talked with the Iranians directly like this."

On Thursday, Iranian state television broadcast Obama's speech live, something many Iranians described as unprecedented.

Some Iranians marked the historic moment in U.S.-Iranian relations on Twitter by sharing "selfies" of themselves in front of the live Obama speech.

But U.S. leaders were still talking tough, even as they praised the agreement.

Kerry stressed that if a final deal is reached with Iran, the removal of any sanctions against Tehran will come in phases.

"And if we find out at any point that Iran is not complying with the agreement, the sanctions can snap back into place," he said.

Iran didn't seem to be changing its tune, either.

"Iran-U.S. relations had nothing to do with this. This was an attempt to resolve the nuclear issue. ... We have serious differences with the United States," Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said after the deal's framework was announced, noting that "mutual mistrust" had been a serious problem in the talks.

The preliminary agreement will not put an end to Iran's enrichment activities, Zarif said.

"None of those measures include closing any of our facilities. The proud people of Iran would never accept that," he said.

But he said Iran will abide by the agreement, which would limit enrichment activities to one location, he said.

21 questions on Iranian nuclear talks

Will Congress block agreement?

But work on the deal isn't finished. There's a June 30 deadline for coming up with a final agreement.

In the United States, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle selling the deal to a skeptical Congress, which has threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran.

Already, there were rumblings of the looming political fight.

Kerry said he didn't believe Congress would block the deal, telling CNN it "would be very irresponsible to make politics trump facts and science and the realities of what is possible here."

House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement that he was planning to stand strong and press the administration with tough questions.

"The President says negotiators have cleared the basic threshold needed to continue talks, but the parameters for a final deal represent an alarming departure from the White House's initial goals," he said, arguing that Congress must review details of a deal before any sanctions are lifted.

Obama warned leaders of Congress not to stop the deal.

"If Congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then it's the United States that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy," Obama said. "International unity will collapse."

Netanyahu: Deal paves way for nuclear bomb

Obama maintains the deal would shut down Iran's path to getting a nuclear bomb.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the opposite is true.

"Such a deal would not block Iran's path to the bomb. It would pave it," he said in a statement. "It would increase the risks of nuclear proliferation in the region and the risks of a horrific war."

Netanyahu has been lobbying against an agreement since the talks began, warning U.S. lawmakers in a congressional address last month that Iran can't be trusted.

Israeli government officials vowed to continue their push against what they called "a poor framework that will lead to a bad and dangerous agreement."

"If an agreement is reached on the basis of this framework, it will result in a historic mistake that will make the world a far more dangerous place," the Israeli officials said in a statement. "This framework gives international legitimacy to Iran's nuclear program that aims only to produce nuclear bombs."

Obama said that he was reaching out to Netanyahu to explain and defend the tentative framework.

"If, in fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for the most effective way to ensure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon, this is the best option," Obama said.

Difficult negotiations

Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- plus Germany began in 2006 and have had a tortured history.

Over the past nine years, the push and pull over Iran's nuclear program produced a bewildering array of proposals. Meanwhile, as talks dragged on, the United States, the European Union and others imposed sanctions on Iran, provoking resentment among Tehran's leaders, who called the sanctions a crime against humanity.

The challenge all along was twofold: To assure the international community that Iran could not develop nuclear weapons (which it denied in any event that it was doing); and to accommodate the country's assertion of its right -- as a signer of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons -- to enrich nuclear fuel for civilian purposes.

The broad outlines of a deal seem to have been clear for some time.

But the devil was in the details, and the numbers, timing, sequencing and verification procedures proved devilishly difficult to resolve. Until now.

The 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani, a political moderate, to Iran's presidency infused the talks with new hope, though questions lingered over whether he could persuade the country's hard-liners to accept an agreement.

U.S. leaders also were divided over the agreement as envisioned. In a March 9 letter signed by 47 Republican U.S. senators, Iran's leaders were warned that any deal not approved by the Senate could immediately be revoked by President Barack Obama's successor in 2017.

Democrats denounced the sending of such a letter to foreign leaders as an unprecedented intervention in negotiations between the administration and another country. And Iran's leaders also But U.S. leaders were still talking tough, even as they praised the agreement.

Kerry stressed that if a final deal is reached with Iran, the removal of any sanctions against Tehran will come in phases.

"And if we find out at any point that Iran is not complying with the agreement, the sanctions can snap back into place," he said.

Iran didn't seem to be changing its tune, either.

"Iran-U.S. relations had nothing to do with this. This was an attempt to resolve the nuclear issue. ... We have serious differences with the United States," Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said after the deal's framework was announced, noting that "mutual mistrust" had been a serious problem in the talks.

The preliminary agreement will not put an end to Iran's enrichment activities, Zarif said.

"None of those measures include closing any of our facilities. The proud people of Iran would never accept that," he said.

But he said Iran will abide by the agreement, which would limit enrichment activities to one location, he said.

21 questions on Iranian nuclear talks

Will Congress block agreement?

But work on the deal isn't finished. There's a June 30 deadline for coming up with a final agreement.

In the United States, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle selling the deal to a skeptical Congress, which has threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran.

Already, there were rumblings of the looming political fight.

Kerry said he didn't believe Congress would block the deal, telling CNN it "would be very irresponsible to make politics trump facts and science and the realities of what is possible here."

House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement that he was planning to stand strong and press the administration with tough questions.

"The President says negotiators have cleared the basic threshold needed to continue talks, but the parameters for a final deal represent an alarming departure from the White House's initial goals," he said, arguing that Congress must review details of a deal before any sanctions are lifted.

Obama warned leaders of Congress not to stop the deal.

"If Congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then it's the United States that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy," Obama said. "International unity will collapse."

Netanyahu: Deal paves way for nuclear bomb

Obama maintains the deal would shut down Iran's path to getting a nuclear bomb.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the opposite is true.

"Such a deal would not block Iran's path to the bomb. It would pave it," he said in a statement. "It would increase the risks of nuclear proliferation in the region and the risks of a horrific war."

Netanyahu has been lobbying against an agreement since the talks began, warning U.S. lawmakers in a congressional address last month that Iran can't be trusted.

Israeli government officials vowed to continue their push against what they called "a poor framework that will lead to a bad and dangerous agreement."

"If an agreement is reached on the basis of this framework, it will result in a historic mistake that will make the world a far more dangerous place," the Israeli officials said in a statement. "This framework gives international legitimacy to Iran's nuclear program that aims only to produce nuclear bombs."

Obama said that he was reaching out to Netanyahu to explain and defend the tentative framework.

"If, in fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for the most effective way to ensure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon, this is the best option," Obama said.

Difficult negotiations

Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- plus Germany began in 2006 and have had a tortured history.

Over the past nine years, the push and pull over Iran's nuclear program produced a bewildering array of proposals. Meanwhile, as talks dragged on, the United States, the European Union and others imposed sanctions on Iran, provoking resentment among Tehran's leaders, who called the sanctions a crime against humanity.

The challenge all along was twofold: To assure the international community that Iran could not develop nuclear weapons (which it denied in any event that it was doing); and to accommodate the country's assertion of its right -- as a signer of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons -- to enrich nuclear fuel for civilian purposes.

The broad outlines of a deal seem to have been clear for some time.

But the devil was in the details, and the numbers, timing, sequencing and verification procedures proved devilishly difficult to resolve. Until now.

The 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani, a political moderate, to Iran's presidency infused the talks with new hope, though questions lingered over whether he could persuade the country's hard-liners to accept an agreement.

U.S. leaders also were divided over the agreement as envisioned. In a March 9 letter signed by 47 Republican U.S. senators, Iran's leaders were warned that any deal not approved by the Senate could immediately be revoked by President Barack Obama's successor in 2017.

Democrats denounced the sending of such a letter to foreign leaders as an unprecedented intervention in negotiations between the administration and another country. And Iran's leaders also dismissed the letter.​
Ok so from what I can grasp, Iran agrees to reduce enrichment, reduce the stockpile of uranium, and reduce the number of centrifuges in use, while allowing inspectors to make sure they comply. In return, we gradually lift sanctions.

How exactly is this a bad deal? Or am I missing something? Or do the GOP and Israel just have their hearts set on war and don't want anything peaceful?
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

Post by Joun_Lord »

This doesn't sound like a bad deal to me. Of course while I have some conservative leanings I'm not so much of a moron that I think Iranistan is a bunch of insane devil worshippers who need bombed until they glow. I see Iran as a country that has been fucked by my country and while it might have some loons in charge overall the people don't seem them bad. Thus I don't think the only way to deal with them is to commence Operation Bombthefuckoutofthem or that they want The Bomb over all else.

Israel sees Iran as a rival and existential threat and the GOP does whatever Israel says because of money or end of the world bullshit. Any deal where Iran is not on its knees, completely submissive, mouth open ready to please is not a deal these fucknozzles will accept.

We really, really need to extend the hand of friendship to Iran though. For too long our countries have been at odds over dumb shit, over petty squabbles and moronic policies. Much like with Cuba, the only thing our snobbery and sanctions are doing is hurting the people there by either economic hardships or making the people feel under attack constantly thus pushing them further right and shitting all over personal liberties.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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Why do I get the feeling that even if Iran turned around and said "you're right, we totally don't need a nuclear program at all, lease help us dismantle it, we'll pay the costs, we're really sorry about all this" with total sincerity, the American right-wing would still find some way to bitch about it "not being good enough" or somesuch.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

Post by Purple »

Joun_Lord wrote:For too long our countries have been at odds over dumb shit, over petty squabbles and moronic policies. Much like with Cuba, the only thing our snobbery and sanctions are doing is hurting the people there by either economic hardships or making the people feel under attack constantly thus pushing them further right and shitting all over personal liberties.
That's the only thing sanctions ever do. Their sole purpose is to weaken a foreign nation economically and radicalize its political scene up until the point where it destabilizes sufficiently for the sanction placing power to try and put its own puppets in charge. That or up until the point where the target country is no longer worth bothering to even go through the last bit.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

Post by Rogue 9 »

The GOP's problem is bigger than this deal and really has little to do with it; they've talked up Obama being a bad and failed President to their base for so long that it's politically unacceptable for them to agree with nearly anything he does, particularly as it relates to a historically antagonistic foreign power.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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I don't agree with Obama that much but I think he deserves a lot of credit for being brave enough to stand up to the lobby at home and get this deal done.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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If this deal works, could this be used as an argument for the current crisis in Ukraine? In a "see, the sanctions worked (after nearly a decade)"-kind of way?
On the other hand, if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons it wouldn't have been invaded in the first place, so does Iran suddenly feel safe enough it won't share the fate of Iraq?
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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FTeik wrote:If this deal works, could this be used as an argument for the current crisis in Ukraine? In a "see, the sanctions worked (after nearly a decade)"-kind of way?
On the other hand, if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons it wouldn't have been invaded in the first place, so does Iran suddenly feel safe enough it won't share the fate of Iraq?
Completely different case - the Iran problem was that the US didn't like them (in a nutshell). This is preety much the same situation we still have with Cuba.

Russia, on the other hand, will never bow down to sanctions. They'll simply turn the other way and trade with other states, and impose the same sanctions on the west in return. They already caused a lot of chaos in Europe that way by simply buying groceries in South America now.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/14/co ... romo4%2F14
White House Relents on Iran Bill as Democrats Side With Republicans
BY JOHN HUDSONAPRIL 14, 2015 - 2:27 PM

Despite weeks of White House opposition, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted unanimously in support of legislation allowing Congress to review President Barack Obama’s potential nuclear accord with Iran.

The bipartisan vote followed a marathon round of negotiations between committee chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and ranking member Ben Cardin (D-Md.) that resulted in an amendment package that watered down earlier provisions opposed by the White House.

Just hours ahead of the vote, as key Democrats publicly sided with the Republican majority, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Obama could support the Senate compromise, even though the administration remains concerned that it could scuttle a final nuclear deal while delicate negotiations are ongoing.

The change of tune reflected the reality that Democrats, under intense pressure from pro-Israel lobbying groups, were prepared to break with the White House in support of congressional review legislation.

“I know they’ve relented because [of] what they believed to be the outcome here,” Corker said during the markup.

If the legislation passes into law, it’s unclear what effect it might have on the ongoing international negotiations between Iran and six world powers, the so-called P5+1. One European diplomat, speaking to Foreign Policy, raised a note of concern. “While the role of Congress in the deal is a matter for the U.S., we hope this Senate compromise will give the P5+1 negotiators the space to reach a final comprehensive agreement,” said the official.

Corker’s original bill would have prevented the White House from lifting sanctions for 60 days while lawmakers consider giving final approval to the historic, if still tentative, nuclear agreement.

Instead, the compromise bill would shorten the length of the review period from 60 days to 30 days, a key demand from Democrats, and soften a requirement that the administration certify that Tehran has not directly supported terrorist attacks against the United States.

The final deal between Iran and six world powers, which face a June 30 deadline, would limit Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from bruising international sanctions.

“What I’m proud of is we have kept the pure integrity of the process in place, and the president cannot lift [sanctions] while Congress is reviewing,” Corker told reporters on Tuesday, following a classified briefing by Secretary of State John Kerry and other top cabinet officials.

Kerry brushed off questions from reporters as he exited the closed-door briefing, which included Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

The revised Corker bill requires the White House to submit the text of a deal with Iran to Congress five days after the agreement is reached. The White House would also have to include a report by Kerry detailing the international community’s ability to verify Iran’s compliance.

Congress could then vote whether to approve or reject the lifting of sanctions necessary to complete a final nuclear accord. If a deal is made by July, rejecting the lifting of sanctions would put the United States in material breach of its agreements and blow up the deal forged by the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany and Iran. But under that scenario, Republicans would be hard-pressed to accumulate enough Democratic votes.

For weeks, Obama and other top officials pledged to veto Corker’s legislation. But a number of hawkish Democrats urged the White House to compromise with Republicans on a bill that would satisfy all sides. Some prominent Democrats — such as Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York — even pledged to support the original Corker legislation, putting even more pressure on the Obama administration to cut a deal.

Earnest said the White House is waiting to see the final version of the compromise to make sure it is not changed before it is put to a committee vote. He said the Obama administration continues to have concerns about the legislation, but enough changes have been made to the original GOP plan that the new measure is “not entirely unreasonable.”

“What we could be seeing here is the kind of compromise to emerge that the president would be willing to sign.” Earnest told reporters at the White House. By relenting now, the White House could embolden conservative Republicans eager to insert additional amendments when the bill reaches the Senate floor.

Following the briefing, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) warned that a series of Republican amendments could still jeopardize the bill’s bipartisan support in Congress. (Republicans need Democrats to garner the 67 votes required to override a White House veto.)

If Republicans place more restrictions on the president’s ability to reach a deal with Iran, “I would drop off in a second,” Coons told reporters. During the markup, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) also pledged to do everything in her power to oppose the Corker bill if controversial Republican amendments are added in the coming weeks.

This is almost certain to happen when the bill reaches the Senate floor. At the Tuesday session, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) telegraphed his intentions to offer an amendment that would require Iran to recognize the state of Israel — a provision that Tehran would likely consider a non-starter.

If Republican leaders want to preserve the bill’s bipartisan appeal, they’ll likely need to bury a number of amendments offered by their conservative peers — a dynamic that will test the political acumen of House and Senate leaders.

This post has been updated.
The way TYT describes this is the bill is design to make it unpalatable for Iran. Even if Iran stops nuclear enrichment it still requires 30 days for sanctions to be lifted while Congress takes it, instead of Iran stops enrichment, sanctions lifted and are resumed if Iran breaks the deal. Its even worse when there is a requirement for the president to certify Iran isn't doing a particular terrorist attack against the US. It sounds bordering on requiring the president to prove a negative. It seems like its designed to make Iran back out of a deal.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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mr friendly guy wrote:https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/14/co ... romo4%2F14

The way TYT describes this is the bill is design to make it unpalatable for Iran. Even if Iran stops nuclear enrichment it still requires 30 days for sanctions to be lifted while Congress takes it, instead of Iran stops enrichment, sanctions lifted and are resumed if Iran breaks the deal. Its even worse when there is a requirement for the president to certify Iran isn't doing a particular terrorist attack against the US. It sounds bordering on requiring the president to prove a negative. It seems like its designed to make Iran back out of a deal.
That's absolutely the point behind the legislation. It isn't to ensure that we're getting a good deal, it's to ensure that the deal slips beneath the waves, broken in two by a big torpedo hit amidships. The pro-Israel lobby seem to have the Congressional Democrats by the balls, so it's not surprising that they retreated with their tails between their legs to leave the President hanging in the breeze.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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I wonder if this means Iran would delay signing a deal until the outcome of the US presidential elections. Even if the Dems win, if a lot of them are enamoured to the Pro Israel lobby then there isn't much incentive for Iran to do a deal. If the Republicans win... well lets leave that unsaid for now. Now if a Democrat win who is less emboldened to the Pro Israel lobby, then maybe its worth negotiation.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

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Russia has lifted their ban on delivery of the S-300 missile system to Iran.
Delivery of the S-300s was cancelled in 2010 after the UN imposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

But the Russian president gave the go-ahead after Tehran struck an interim deal with world powers to curb nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

The US and Israel have criticised the news.

The $800m (£545m) contract to deliver the system was heavily criticised at the time by Israel and the US, who feared it could be used to protect Iranian nuclear sites from air strikes.

When it was cancelled, Iran filed a lawsuit seeking billions of dollars in damages.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a statement that the sale was put on hold "entirely voluntarily" to aid the talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

The Russian defence ministry said it was now ready to supply the S-300 equipment "promptly", an official there said, quoted by Interfax.

Iran hailed the decision as a step towards "establishing stability and security in the region," the country's defence minister, Hossein Dehghan, was quoted as saying by state media.

Israel, a vocal opponent of the nuclear deal, condemned the news.

"This is a direct result of the legitimacy that Iran obtained from the emerging nuclear deal,'' said Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz.

He said it was "proof" Iran planned to use relief from sanctions for arms, rather than the welfare of the Iranian people.

But Mr Lavrov said the missiles were "entirely defensive", and were of no security threat to any country, including Israel.

US Secretary of State John Kerry had raised concerns with Mr Lavrov about the announcement, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said, without elaborating.

The S-300 is a surface-to-air missile system that can be used against multiple targets including jets, or to shoot down other missiles.

It is not clear when the system would be delivered. Russia has stopped producing the model specified under the original contract and has instead offered an upgrade.

Russia was one of six major world powers to reach an outline agreement with Iran over its nuclear programme.

The sides have set a 30 June deadline to reach a comprehensive deal.

Tough negotiations lie ahead, in particular on how and when to lift sanctions.

Meanwhile, Mr Kerry is due to brief Congress, as the Obama administration attempts to persuade opponents not to block the deal's implementation.

He said they should "hold their fire" until they see a final agreement.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has cautioned against seeing the interim agreement as a guarantee of a final deal.
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Re: Iranian nuclear deal reached - GOP screaming doom and gl

Post by Elheru Aran »

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
mr friendly guy wrote:https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/14/co ... romo4%2F14

The way TYT describes this is the bill is design to make it unpalatable for Iran. Even if Iran stops nuclear enrichment it still requires 30 days for sanctions to be lifted while Congress takes it, instead of Iran stops enrichment, sanctions lifted and are resumed if Iran breaks the deal. Its even worse when there is a requirement for the president to certify Iran isn't doing a particular terrorist attack against the US. It sounds bordering on requiring the president to prove a negative. It seems like its designed to make Iran back out of a deal.
That's absolutely the point behind the legislation. It isn't to ensure that we're getting a good deal, it's to ensure that the deal slips beneath the waves, broken in two by a big torpedo hit amidships. The pro-Israel lobby seem to have the Congressional Democrats by the balls, so it's not surprising that they retreated with their tails between their legs to leave the President hanging in the breeze.
Read a little more carefully. The only thing it does is keep Obama from lifting sanctions sooner, and that's something that the administration has stated it won't do anyway. Also... Congress had the final say on lifting sanctions anyway. There really is nothing game-changing here; it's pure theater.

Explanation here: http://thedailybanter.com/2015/04/corke ... ent-obama/
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