The 2016 US Election (Part I)

[Mr Bean]

As someone has been suggesting now is a good time to start condensing all the 2016 talk.
We have an entire Primary season to get through, the debate cycle, party meetings, scandals, conventions and who knows what else coming down the pipe over the next eighteen months.

Hillary Clinton is on her way to Iowa, Rand Paul is fundraising and Marco Rubio is joining in the race tonight.

Let the games begin.

[Elheru Aran]

Don't forget Cruz. His candidacy may be a mockery of the process but there's enough crazy people out there that there's potential for him to actually be in the running.

[Mr Bean]

Don't forget Cruz. His candidacy may be a mockery of the process but there's enough crazy people out there that there's potential for him to actually be in the running.

I'll take him seriously when he starts doing anything campaign like. He's announced he's running but to date he's doing the bare minimum necessary to not be laughed out of the race. He's not spending his days lining up delegates or living in Iowa/New Hampshire for the ten months, he's pretty much just kind of hey I'm running give me extra money.... And that's about it.

[Borgholio]

and who knows what else coming down the pipe over the next eight months.

Election mail outnumbering my legit mail 10 pieces to 1, phone call surveys and advertisements up the ass, people planting signs on my property without my permission, door to door petitioners, and the endless commercials full of mind-numbing bullshit.

[SpottedKitty]

[...] over the next eighteen months.

And here I thought we had it bad over on this side of the Pond with the last week's interminable coverage, and more than three weeks to go.

[Tribble]

The way things are going, I'm surprised the media hasn't started speculating on the 2020 election yet.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Don't forget Cruz. His candidacy may be a mockery of the process but there's enough crazy people out there that there's potential for him to actually be in the running.

Cruz I think will end up taking the route I see many on the Right taking in recent years when it comes to the presidential race. That of the "Career" candidate.

Let us be honest, these days people raise a GREAT deal of money running for president. More then any other office, the Presidency attracts donors like bees to honey.
Since the 2000 election, There has been a tendency for Right Wing Candidates to run for President "knowing" they have NO CHANCE of actually winning, but doing it basically to make a quick buck...
In a way it is a bit like the plot to "The Producers"

You announce you will run for President.
You get as MANY backers as possible and stir up as MUCH media hype as possible.
You spend as LITTLE as possible on the race itself, mostly doing lots of TV interviews and few public appearances (which cost money)
Then at some point you "Cash out" declare you are bowing out, and pocket the extra cash.

Yes I know this is as cynical as it gets, but hey, it is America after all.

[Elheru Aran]

Looks like the odds are good Ben Carson will throw some skin into the game:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/04/ben- ... -4-report/

[Pelranius]

Looks like the odds are good Ben Carson will throw some skin into the game:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/04/ben- ... -4-report/

It'll be amusing to watch him and Cruz out crazy each other, though Cruz strikes me as being more of the pandering opportunist type.

[Elheru Aran]

Carson is going to kiss fundie ass and try to play the "I'm the Republican Obama" card if he runs. I doubt there's going to be any other serious black Republican candidates. There might be a few hopefuls-- I would not be surprised if Allen West decides to put his finger in that pie-- but otherwise there just aren't many nationally prominent black Republicans.

[Irbis]

You announce you will run for President.
You get as MANY backers as possible and stir up as MUCH media hype as possible.
You spend as LITTLE as possible on the race itself, mostly doing lots of TV interviews and few public appearances (which cost money)
Then at some point you "Cash out" declare you are bowing out, and pocket the extra cash.

Can you even do that? I know quite a few places where it would be illegal, but nothing in the USA will surprise me after super-PACs.

...

Also, I wonder if we will see repeat of that terrible 'you forgot Poland' meme. Anti-Russia craziness reached such levels that I saw supposedly even centre-right, moderate newspaper call on government to support tea party candidate, and denounce Hillary, because "softer on Russia". After Netanyahu paved the way, I feel some big ego idiot politician from here might welcome opportunity to make another dumb anti-Democrat speech

My only hope is in Poland ultimately being too fucking unimportant for Republithugs to actually give a damn and try to do it...

[phongn]

Then at some point you "Cash out" declare you are bowing out, and pocket the extra cash.

Can you even do that? I know quite a few places where it would be illegal, but nothing in the USA will surprise me after super-PACs.

Use of campaign funds for personal reasons is illegal.

[Dalton]

And here you may well see document my long, slow slide into madness

[Borgholio]

And the shit is already beginning. Someone knocked over the tombstone of Hillary's father.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-cli ... e-toppled/

[Mr Bean]

And here you may well see document my long, slow slide into madness

I'm sorry Dalton, but your pain is our entertainment

The greatest show on earth has begun and shame 70% of our population has no idea how much fun it's going to be.

[General Mung Beans]

The way things are going, I'm surprised the media hasn't started speculating on the 2020 election yet.

This election "started" much later and is less hyped compared to 2008.

[Dalton]

I beg to differ. Speaking as someone who's been in the trenches, this election started in 2012, ebbed shortly after and came roaring back earlier this year. And since it's only just begun, the hype train hasn't even left the station yet. This is going to be a bonkers election, because it's Obama's legacy vs Tea Party upstarts vs establishment GOP.

[Dalton]

The way things are going, I'm surprised the media hasn't started speculating on the 2020 election yet.

There's been speculation, especially from places assuming a Clinton win in 2016. Same goes for 2024. Not much though.

[Gandalf]

The way things are going, I'm surprised the media hasn't started speculating on the 2020 election yet.

There's been speculation, especially from places assuming a Clinton win in 2016. Same goes for 2024. Not much though.

I remember that a few people in the 2012 cycle like Huntsman were just assumed to "really" be running for the 2020/2024 election.

[Elheru Aran]

I remember that a few people in the 2012 cycle like Huntsman were just assumed to "really" be running for the 2020/2024 election.

Yeah, but where are they now? People seem to be assuming that Hillary is the only Democratic candidate of any significance.... and they're probably right. The most likely candidates competing for the Democratic nom are:

--Warren-- won't run. I suspect she'll be written in by a good few people, though.
--Biden-- possible but I don't think he'd try. I could be wrong.
--Bernie Sanders-- highly unelectable, but it'd be hilarious to see the right-wing media machine frothing at the mouth if he ran.
--A few guys are exploring the possibility of running; Martin O'Malley (Governor of Maryland), Jim Webb (former SecNav under Reagan), Lincoln Chaffee (Governor of RI)

None of these folks are terribly impressive. I mean, I like Sanders and Warren, but there's no chance in hell they'd ever get elected. I've hardly heard about 90% of the current possible/likely candidates. Hell, a guy who used to be football coach at Savannah State University has filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission... who the fuck cares? He'll get something like ten votes out of the entire election, most of them probably from family.

But the fact of the matter is that it's still over a year until the Democratic National Convention in late July of next year. There's a lot of time for things to shake down in the long run.

As for the Republicans-- personally I expect probably a quarter (or even a half) of the sitting Republican Senators to throw their name in, just for the hell of it. It's going to be a pretty wide field on the right, which will hurt them because nobody will know who to vote for in their primaries. It's going to be like it was in the past few elections-- the right side is going to be a lot more dramatic than the left.

[Crossroads Inc.]

At Elheru Aran. I agree totally with you that, as of right now, I cannot see anyone "seriously" opposing Hillary.
We could be totally wrong about it, there could be someone who comes from no-where and captures the attention of America in a furious Whirlwind excitement... But I doubt it...

My personal prediction is there will be "challengers" to Hillary, it will not be a "Coronation" as some detractors are stating. But, at the end of the day it will be painfully obvious that she's going to be the nominee. Again, I COULD be wrong about that... But I doubt it.

On the Republican side. Well that WILL be far more entertaining.
It has now been 15 years since GW-Bush took office in a nail biting election that, most historians these days, state he should have lost. Since that time in those 15 years, the Right Wing has grown more and more extreme, insulated, and delusional.
Eight years ago, shortly after Obama won, I looked at the race McCain ran, at his missteps and at the Swell of support for him, right up until the end. Then I looked at Romney, the Delusion state that the Right 'Forced' themselves to believe, that he Would win despite all the evidence...

My conclusion is that, when it comes to the Presidential election, the Right Wing has insured that it will be all but Impossible to win the Presidency, for perhaps the next 20 years, or more.
The reason for this is that, while "Nutjobs" and wackos keep winning at the local level, when it comes to the "national" level, they actually have to get support from NON-Nutjobs. And, in the current climate, the ONLY people (IMHO) who can make it through the nomination process, are the "Nutjobs"

Basically in the current climate, the only people who become the Republican nominee, will by Default, be too radical to win the Presidency itself.

[Civil War Man]

My conclusion is that, when it comes to the Presidential election, the Right Wing has insured that it will be all but Impossible to win the Presidency, for perhaps the next 20 years, or more.
The reason for this is that, while "Nutjobs" and wackos keep winning at the local level, when it comes to the "national" level, they actually have to get support from NON-Nutjobs. And, in the current climate, the ONLY people (IMHO) who can make it through the nomination process, are the "Nutjobs"

This is not entirely true. Romney got the nomination in 2012, and he was significantly less right-wing than many of the people he was running against in the primary. He had to pander to the nuts, since you are not going to get enough support to win the nomination if you ignore them, but he won because he didn't exclusively pander to them the way that many of his competitors did, allowing him to snatch up most of the non-Tea Party delegates.

If this primary turns out like 2012, we'll have a deluge of candidates trying to out-conservative each other in order to win over the ultra-right-wing Tea Party vote, only for them to split that demographic a million different ways, giving an advantage to the candidates that try to remain in good terms with the non-Tea Party Republicans (assuming that field doesn't get equally saturated).

[Irbis]

My conclusion is that, when it comes to the Presidential election, the Right Wing has insured that it will be all but Impossible to win the Presidency, for perhaps the next 20 years, or more.
The reason for this is that, while "Nutjobs" and wackos keep winning at the local level, when it comes to the "national" level, they actually have to get support from NON-Nutjobs. And, in the current climate, the ONLY people (IMHO) who can make it through the nomination process, are the "Nutjobs"

Are you sure about that?

I mean, if theoretically 25% of popular vote can win the Presidential election thanks to winner takes all system and heavy bias towards smaller population states? States which with two or three exceptions all seem to vote for nutjobs, seeing Tea Party is strongest there - well, that doesn't sound exactly reassuring.

[General Mung Beans]

My conclusion is that, when it comes to the Presidential election, the Right Wing has insured that it will be all but Impossible to win the Presidency, for perhaps the next 20 years, or more.
The reason for this is that, while "Nutjobs" and wackos keep winning at the local level, when it comes to the "national" level, they actually have to get support from NON-Nutjobs. And, in the current climate, the ONLY people (IMHO) who can make it through the nomination process, are the "Nutjobs"

Are you sure about that?

I mean, if theoretically 25% of popular vote can win the Presidential election thanks to winner takes all system and heavy bias towards smaller population states? States which with two or three exceptions all seem to vote for nutjobs, seeing Tea Party is strongest there - well, that doesn't sound exactly reassuring.

If anything the Democrats have a bit of an advantage in the EC right now with some former swing states especially Nevada and New Mexico solidifying into reasonably safe states (bar a Susana Martinez or Sandoval candidacy).

[Wild Zontargs]

My conclusion is that, when it comes to the Presidential election, the Right Wing has insured that it will be all but Impossible to win the Presidency, for perhaps the next 20 years, or more.
The reason for this is that, while "Nutjobs" and wackos keep winning at the local level, when it comes to the "national" level, they actually have to get support from NON-Nutjobs. And, in the current climate, the ONLY people (IMHO) who can make it through the nomination process, are the "Nutjobs"

Basically in the current climate, the only people who become the Republican nominee, will by Default, be too radical to win the Presidency itself.

Might that be a valid long-term strategy? Get as many people elected as possible, but non-blatantly avoid the Presidency. Do whatever dickery they want, deadlock Congress, etc. Piss and moan about how all the bad stuff that happens is the President's fault, because "everyone knows" that the President is ultimately responsible for everything. Force the President and the rest of Congress to compromise in their favor in order to get anything done. And quietly do as much of what they wanted to do as possible while everyone's looking at the President, so most of the blame doesn't stick to them.

Even if they don't deliberately follow that strategy, it might get them more of what they want in the long term than getting a moderate Republican President and having to deal with the fallout of their policies would.