Soviet Russia if the Central Powers won WWI

[Dominus Atheos]

To make a long post short, would Soviet Russia still have existed if the Central Powers won the Great War? Would the victorious occupying forces have restored the monarchy? Forced a democracy? Or maybe accepted a White Peace with them that let the communists stay in power?

[Metahive]

I think that depends on how the CP won WWI. What about the US? Were they active participants in this scenario as in RL or did the CP victory come about because they kept out?

[K. A. Pital]

To make a long post short, would Soviet Russia still have existed if the Central Powers won the Great War? Would the victorious occupying forces have restored the monarchy? Forced a democracy? Or maybe accepted a White Peace with them that let the communists stay in power?

To answer your short post - you should have made it a long post.

How did the Central Powers win? Why the hell would these victorious forces care much about what type of power was controlling most of Russia? How much of Russia did they occupy - and how much could they, realistically?

What happened IRL was that the Central Powers did win against Russia: it self-destructed in the revolution, then signed a one-sided peace when the Central Powers' forces continued to march through Ukraine and, for a time, held quite a bit of territory - though it was not likely they could advance further, given the state of the Russian railways of the period. They just lost on the other side.

But let's say they stave off the onslaught of the Entente. This does not change much. Instead of Entente intervention, Russia would have CP intervention. Some parts of it may stay buffer states, various limitrophes and the like, but the core is likely to remain with the Bolsheviks - simply due to their skill at organizing armed forces straight after capturing power, and because popular support for Bolsheviks tended to rise in regions controlled by foreign intervention.

What else?

[Elheru Aran]

Yeah, the Central Powers had internal issues of their own that may have turned a WWI victory into a Pyrrhic one (though IIRC the worst of those happened after the US entered the war).

Remember that they were happy enough to sign a peace treaty with the Russians before the war ended on the West, dealing with the Soviets at the time. I suspect that they may have been similarly obliging to let the Soviets stay in power even if they won in the West... but probably wouldn't have been terribly happy about it, given the violent overthrow of the Russian Imperial family.

[LaCroix]

The most 'realistic' scenario leading to a CP win would be that the US did not join. (Maybe because the US stopped sending ships and/or the Germans didn't topedo too many, or didn't try to contact Mexico, this time.)

The Germans were 75 km from Paris by the time the American units arrived, and French and British units were in a bad state. Without the morale, boostin arrival of fresh US troops (almost 2 million fresh and rested troops, a third of the toral force) and material, the 100 days offensive would not have worked as it had, and either failed spectacularily or have ended in a trench-fight stalemate after pushing the Germans a few miles back, as usual. At this point, negotiations for peace might become possible, or even necessary, if the offensive had failed. Neither side of the war had any further reserves, nor much will to continue if the war got "stuck" in trenches, again.

At this point, the CP would not have any manpower left to occupy anything. So, they'd settle for some treaties, pull back and consolidate their territory. The CP, France and Britain then would proceed to figuratively sit on their hands for a decade or two, waiting for manpower to replenish, before they might try military intervention anywhere, again.

[General Mung Beans]

If its an early Central Powers victory (ie before 1917), a Soviet Russia would not exist at all.

[Irbis]

At this point, the CP would not have any manpower left to occupy anything. So, they'd settle for some treaties, pull back and consolidate their territory. The CP, France and Britain then would proceed to figuratively sit on their hands for a decade or two, waiting for manpower to replenish, before they might try military intervention anywhere, again.

I expect what happend in real life would have taken place - all Central European nations revolting, Germany being too tired to deal with them, maybe some sort of last wind intervention in Poland and Ukraine. Behind that buffer, revolution in Russia can easily take place and if anything, without interventions from West Bolsheviks (or any other left wing group) would take power even quicker.

Or not, after all big part of Revolution was Germans thoughtlessly destroying local administration deep into Russia and sending Lenin on a train, if they didn't do that this time Russia could have ended up a republic or nationalist dictature instead.

If its an early Central Powers victory (ie before 1917), a Soviet Russia would not exist at all.

Why not? Look at war of 1905 - it was orders of magnitude smaller than WWI, yet at the end Tzar was facing state-wide revolt (that ironically was the only thing that let Japan win war despite almost losing it) that pushed Russia towards peace at any costs.

In 1914, Tzars were gambling on West beating Germany while Russia deals with other two Central States - if Germans won, Tzar's prestige would be shot and we could have very well seen revolution, if not Communist one, then left wing republic one. Only a total victory leaving big part of army intact would have saved the government.

[Thanas]

Really, the most important thing is when does this mythical victory occur. If it happens in 1916, then Austria and the German Empire are strong enough to impose their ideas on the east. The Czar would still fall, but the civil war would be a lot more bloody. In this scenario Russia still fragments but might not become as radical as before.

If it happens in 1918, nothing much changes. Ukraine and the other eastern nations get their independence. Germany will be too preoccupied with trying to save Austria-Hungary (and either failing or succeeding, either way AH is still no longer a relevant power). Whatever territorial gains Germany gets will be in the west, most likely Belgium and/or parts of Lorraine. (except possibly for Poland). Poland might become independent as a German protectorate (most likely) or be completely occupied (unlikely, as the last thing Germany wanted were another few million of Poles). Baltics most likely become German protectorates, with Germany striving to maintain the independence of the eastern nations.

In any case, another conflict is almost destined between Germany and the entente.

[LaCroix]

As much as it pains me, if the war goes on till 1918, I could see a good chance of A-H falling apart and being gobbled up by Germany.

Despite doing pretty well in the war against Italy and on the Balkan (as well as occupying Poland, Ukraine and Bulgaria), the A-H was coming apart at the seams by 1918, due to the losses and Italian successful efforts to sow discontent in the monarchy, the voices for autonomous states were getting louder, everywhere.

As it was, the army was on the verge of being unable to function, as non-Austrian troops were revolting hard, disobeying orders or deserting/defecting en masse. Even if they were declared victor, revolts would happen. With the army mostly made up from non-Austrians, who wouldn't have fought against their own, and would have deserted to join their people, so Austria wouldn't have had the strength to prevent fragmentation.

[Thanas]

Yeah, like I said in previous threats, A-H would most likely have been absorbed into Germany (the Czech and Austrian parts, maybe with some war gains in Istria to give access to the med) or gone independent (Hungray, Croatia). So we end up with a German megastate opposed by the Entente powers in the west and the Soviets in the east.

Also, France would most likely have ended up as a fascist state by the early 20s.

[Pelranius]

How restless would the Austrians be under German rule? I can't see the Prussians giving them a very large say in the decisionmaking process, not to mention various grudges carried over from the 19th century.

And would the Ottomans fall apart completely, or at least maintain some control over areas closer to present day Turkey?

[Thanas]

How restless would the Austrians be under German rule? I can't see the Prussians giving them a very large say in the decisionmaking process, not to mention various grudges carried over from the 19th century.

Keep in mind that they were in favor of joining the German Empire, a process that was explicitly forbidden at Versailles. Whatever grudges there are they are far outweighed by the threat of chaos and economic disaster.

And would the Ottomans fall apart completely, or at least maintain some control over areas closer to present day Turkey?

The Ottomans are goners, all that matters is how much Turkey wants to bankrupt itself by controlling Syria and others.

[Pelranius]

How restless would the Austrians be under German rule? I can't see the Prussians giving them a very large say in the decisionmaking process, not to mention various grudges carried over from the 19th century.

Keep in mind that they were in favor of joining the German Empire, a process that was explicitly forbidden at Versailles. Whatever grudges there are they are far outweighed by the threat of chaos and economic disaster.

Wonder what the titles for the Hapsburgs would have been?

As for the "Kingdom of Poland" protectorate, I take image that it'd be centered around areas that had a clear Polish ethnic majority, though that does raise awkward questions about the border with Lithuania.

[Tribble]

If the Schlieffen Plan had been successful it's likely that Russia would have sued for peace much sooner as they would have had no real hope of victory. What happens next would depend on Germany's mood. On the one hand, they may say "fuck it let's beat Russia too, we're on a roll here!" If that were the case Germany would make great gains into Russian territory, the Czar would collapse, and civil war would break out. On the other hand Germany might have been content with beating France and gaining more territory in the west, in which case you might see treaty negotiated where the Russians made some concessions and withdrew from Central Power's territory. As the Russian army wouldn't have been dealt crushing blows IMO the Czar would have lasted a lot longer, though a civil war was still very likely to happen at some point.

[Thanas]

As Atheos has not confirmed/clarified, I shall toss this into OT as it is no different from any previous thread on the subject.

[Dominus Atheos]

I wasn't aware that there were any previous threads on the subject.

And I deliberately left the OP vague because I didn't know under what circumstances a Central victory was possible. Apparently the answer might be "none".

So basically there is no chance of Germany et al occupying Russia at the end of ww1 and imposing similar conditions as were imposed on them?

[Simon_Jester]

Russia's sheer size and limited infrastructure would make it very unrewarding to occupy- and it's worth noting that after Versailles Germany wasn't occupied, though I'm pretty sure there was some kind of inspection regime to enforce disarmament.

Moreover, some degree of civil war would inevitably have broken out in Russia after a defeat, and it's even harder to enforce occupation of a country where the local population is constantly fighting each other.

[LaCroix]

Wonder what the titles for the Hapsburgs would have been?

Emperor would be a nono, as there already is one for Germany.

They would most probably remain King of Austria, and retain all other titles, and stay ruler over his subjects and the nobles sworn to him, but under the German Emperor - which would put the ruling Habsburgs' rank above of other nobles, recognizing that they joined voluntarily into a union. Habsburg-Lothringen was a tier one high nobility, so it is unthinkable to put them at any lower rank than tier one. Nobility must be preserved - nobles would get restless if you shake up the order of titles and ranks for houses without someone having comitted some serious crime.

If King was not acceptable for some reason, then the next logical title would be archduke (Which they already held), or what ever the highest possible rank within the German nobility would be. Certainly, they would not settle for anything that would put someone other than the German emperor above them in rank. That would have been a slap in the face.

[Irbis]

They would most probably remain King of Austria, and retain all other titles, and stay ruler over his subjects and the nobles sworn to him, but under the German Emperor - which would put the ruling Habsburgs' rank above of other nobles, recognizing that they joined voluntarily into a union.

Putting them above other nobles would be kind of hard seeing there were 4 kingdoms in Germany already. Unless something like 'high king' would be made Habsburgs would need to accept fifth best status.

Yeah, like I said in previous threats, A-H would most likely have been absorbed into Germany (the Czech and Austrian parts, maybe with some war gains in Istria to give access to the med) or gone independent (Hungray, Croatia).

Would Czechs agree though? Czechoslovak Legion was one of the largest Allied armies in Central Europe, sure, they could maybe be beaten but all it does is creating martyr legend and restless state full of national based terrorism, probably backed by all other Slavic states in the area to boot.

[Thanas]

They would most probably remain King of Austria, and retain all other titles, and stay ruler over his subjects and the nobles sworn to him, but under the German Emperor - which would put the ruling Habsburgs' rank above of other nobles, recognizing that they joined voluntarily into a union.

Putting them above other nobles would be kind of hard seeing there were 4 kingdoms in Germany already. Unless something like 'high king' would be made Habsburgs would need to accept fifth best status.

The first rank would not only be due to the king title, but also due to the other titles and the age of the titles they hold. I think they would instantly become the number two dynasty in this scenario.

Would Czechs agree though? Czechoslovak Legion was one of the largest Allied armies in Central Europe, sure, they could maybe be beaten but all it does is creating martyr legend and restless state full of national based terrorism, probably backed by all other Slavic states in the area to boot.

I doubt the Czech would have much of a choice, Bohemia was just too strategically important and a cornerstone of the Habsburg Empire. Sure, there might be resistance, but the Prussians handled the Polish resistance just fine. Realistically, it would make much more sense for the Czech to be given their freedom, but I am not sure the German Empire would go the smart route here.

Russia's sheer size and limited infrastructure would make it very unrewarding to occupy- and it's worth noting that after Versailles Germany wasn't occupied, though I'm pretty sure there was some kind of inspection regime to enforce disarmament.

Well, the French were all for occupying Germany and actually did later on, with all the unpleasantness an occupation brings with it (see Ruhrkampf).

[K. A. Pital]

Occpuying Germany with infrastructure that allows substantial logistical support from France is at least feasible. With Russia, as foreign intervents found out, it was not that easy.

[LaCroix]

They would most probably remain King of Austria, and retain all other titles, and stay ruler over his subjects and the nobles sworn to him, but under the German Emperor - which would put the ruling Habsburgs' rank above of other nobles, recognizing that they joined voluntarily into a union.

Putting them above other nobles would be kind of hard seeing there were 4 kingdoms in Germany already. Unless something like 'high king' would be made Habsburgs would need to accept fifth best status.

The first rank would not only be due to the king title, but also due to the other titles and the age of the titles they hold. I think they would instantly become the number two dynasty in this scenario.

My thoughts.

And probably immediately try to broker a couple of marriages with Hohenzollern to cement the union and plan a long-game grab for #1 by inheritance. (#tufelixaustria)

[Elheru Aran]

The Central Powers occupying Russia is simply out, yeah. They have too much pressure in the West to commit any kind of forces to that; when they signed the peace treaty on the East they started more or less immediately shipping troops west.

The picture of that future Europe, assuming that the war ends quickly and the Western European status quo is largely preserved, is probably going to have a larger Germany incorporating elements of the Austro-Hungarian Empire; odds are up in the air as to whether they would simply smash Serbia outright for killing Ferdinand, or let the rascals go. Hungary might be allowed to assert its independence as an ally. Unknown about Turkey, my understanding is that the Ottoman Empire largely collapsed due to internal pressures (Ataturk's coup) caused by losses to the British and French in the Middle East side of the war and long-standing general malaise. So that could well still happen. Russia will be a boiling pot of various factions struggling for control for a while, with the odd European power stirring the pot every now and then, but now we have the Germans throwing their skin in the game too so it gets interesting. Under the circumstances Poland and Ukraine could well be German principalities.

But really this is so far out of what happened historically that there's no firm answer.

[Tribble]

The Central Power's best chance to win the war was in 1914, and had they succeeded I really can't see Russia wanting to continue the fight. Assuming the Germans are willing to sign a peace treaty, the war would come to an end and Czar would have stayed in power for longer than he did. IMO a Russian revolution was inevitable as WW1 was more of a trigger rather than the cause, but perhaps in this case you might have seen Russia heads towards a constitutional monarchy instead of outright communism.

Alternatively, you could have had a scenario where Germany plays defensive in the West while smashing Russia in the East. If that were the case the Russian army would have been beaten pretty quickly, though as was previously stated the Germans couldn't afford to occupy captured Russian territory. Things would get interesting in the west though - would the French decide to go on the offensive? Would they be willing to invade neutral countries in order to reach German territory that was less fortified? Would Britain remain neutral, seeing as its Casus belli was the German invasion of Luxembourg and Belgium?

[Elheru Aran]

The Tsar's position was precarious, though. Social unrest was becoming fairly major and a loss to the Germans would have damaged his position severely. WWI started in July 1914, there's not much way it would have ended sooner than 1915 or 1916 and by then Nicholas was on extremely shaky ground. It's a pretty sure thing AFAIK that the collapse of the Russian Imperial regime was more or less inevitable, the only question is how smooth it would have been.

As for the second part of your post-- the British were pretty eager to get into the war. They were more or less bound to it anyway thanks to all the various treaties and such going around. The French were also bound by similar treaties-- they rejected a German proposal to remain neutral in the case of war between Germany and Russia. So it doesn't appear very likely that the West would have stayed out of a German-Russian conflict.