The 2016 US Election (Part I)

[Eternal_Freedom]

Why the fuck did your government set up such an important organisation with an even number of comissioners? I mean, really, no-one saw this coming and thought "hey, maybe five or seven would be better?" What the hell is wrong with your country?

[Terralthra]

It was set up while the Democratic and Republican parties had all the power. They set it up so that it could not favor one over the other by requiring equal representation from both parties on the commission. Stupid, yes, but that's the reason.

[Dalton]

Huckabee will announce tomorrow. Rick Perry may announce June 1st.

[The Romulan Republic]

Perry's trying again? For God's sake, he was pathetic even before he got soundly defeated before.

[Pelranius]

Fiorina has zero chance of securing anything. Her business record is trash, and her record since then was to be on McCain's election team and then lose to Boxer in the 2010 Senate election by 10 points.

Ah, I still fondly remember that 2010 cluster hump, since I was in state at the time (she also sat on the board of the company my dad used to work at).

I bet she won't even last till Iowa.

[Mr Bean]

So the current list running is as follows first up the short list.
Democrats
Vice President Joe Biden (Delaware)
Former Governor Lincoln Chafee
Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Former Governor Martin O'Malley
US Senator Bernie Sanders
Former US Senator Jim Webb

I'll note here smart money is that at least two of these won't make it to the debates crushed under the jugernaught that is Clinton with Bernie Sanders and Biden sucking up any other interest.

Republicans
Former UN Ambassador John Bolton
Former Governor Jeb Bush
Dr. Ben Carson
Governor Chris Christie
Businesswoman Carly Fiorina
Former Governor Jim Gilmore
US Senator Lindsey Graham
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
Governor Bobby Jindal
Congressman Pete King
Former Governor Sarah Palin
Former Governor George Pataki
US Senator Rand Paul
Governor Mike Pence
Former Governor Rick Perry
US Senator Marco Rubio
Former US Senator Rick Santorum
Governor Scott Walker

I've omitted a few names off the list I can't take seriously see if you can guess who's missing!

[Iroscato]

Damn, that's a lot of Republicunt nominees. Any particular reason they have a small army to choose from?

[Mr Bean]

For some reason I totally forgot Ted Cruz... so add him onto the list.
And as for why there are 20+ Republicans it's because running for office is a good job enhancing move.

[The Romulan Republic]

A lot of the people mentioned above aren't actually running yet.

And fuck. Palin is expected to run again? Can't that moron just shut the fuck up?

[Gandalf]

I wager a few are just there to appear and get notoriety, then become FNC commentators.

[Pelranius]

A lot of the people mentioned above aren't actually running yet.

And fuck. Palin is expected to run again? Can't that moron just shut the fuck up?

I'd eat my hat if she actually does run, but Lord Ashdown made a similar promise...

She'll probably just tease everyone a few months for Iowa, and then go crawling back to her website/media empire (actually finishing only a few percentage points in Iowa or New Hampshire is probably not going to be good for those speaking fees).

[Dalton]

Of the people listed, the only official announcements so far have been these:

Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Lincoln Chafee announced he was forming an exploratory committee on MSNBC, but he's slipped more than once and said he was running - expect him to announce.
O'Malley and Webb have formed committees.

The nominee will be Hillary Clinton.

Republicans
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum (supposedly announcing later this month)
Lindsey Graham (supposedly announcing in June)
Rick Perry (supposedly announcing in June)

The Republican list will almost certainly grow by a few names. The nominee will be someone who can even come close to Hillary in the polls (Jeb if he announces).

[The Romulan Republic]

I'd be careful about assuming Hillary gets the nomination. She was the front runner in 2008 as well as I recall.

Edit: As for Jeb, while he may be the strongest choice for the GOP, he does have the taint of the Bush name and he might be seen as too moderate for the current pack of nuts in the GOP.

[Mr Bean]

The main strength of Hillary is that she is as battled as they get. Running negative campaign ads against her are vastly less effective since the number of people who have not heard them already... were not yet born when the scandals in question happened and are thus likely democratic voters anyway. I mean do you think someone who did not like her Husband in 1994 is going to like her in 2016? No those minds lost to her are already lost she can't change that but that demographic swings so Republican that the 40 year olds who were 20 years olds are no more likely to believe it now than then.

Every single thing they can throw at her has already been thrown, the reason they cling so tight to the Clinton foundation stuff is because... they have nothing else to use. It's the only fresh scandal they got. The campaign trail will provide them with a few... but I'm guessing Secretary Clinton won't provide them with many.

[The Romulan Republic]

The fact that people have already made up their minds on Hillary is a mixed blessing. She probably won't be losing a lot of support, barring some huge disaster, but she probably won't be gaining much either. She's going to need to get high turnout from the loyal base. Can she do that? I don't feel much enthusiasm for her. More an aura of inevitability. She's got first female President going for her, but that's about it.

[Mr Bean]

The fact that people have already made up their minds on Hillary is a mixed blessing. She probably won't be losing a lot of support, barring some huge disaster, but she probably won't be gaining much either. She's going to need to get high turnout from the loyal base. Can she do that? I don't feel much enthusiasm for her. More an aura of inevitability. She's got first female President going for her, but that's about it.

When's the last time we had a Presidential hopeful who will spent a year doing nothing but building her turnout numbers? She's going to raise two billion dollars and do nothing but build turnout among her faithful. If she takes what she has now and moves turnout numbers from 54% to 68% that's.... pretty much all she has to do.

And the expected natural Republican self suppression should take care of the rest, if the primaries go on as long as we expect we will see lots of stay at homes because the fellow winning savaged their personal preference.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, it certainly can't hurt if the GOP rips itself apart.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Well, it certainly can't hurt if the GOP rips itself apart.

I'd be shocked if these days it wasn't an unofficial strategy of the Democrats.. Let the GOP get as many candidates as possible and then form a circular firing squad to alienate and embitter as many GOP voters as possible.

[Pelranius]

I'd be careful about assuming Hillary gets the nomination. She was the front runner in 2008 as well as I recall.

Edit: As for Jeb, while he may be the strongest choice for the GOP, he does have the taint of the Bush name and he might be seen as too moderate for the current pack of nuts in the GOP.

Jeb has the immigration issue to deal with, he's the only high profile candidate that I know of, except possibly Rubio, who hasn't gone full Jan Brewer on the borders.

And though he's a relative moderate, it's doubtful that he could be competitive with Hillary on immigration during the general election.

[Elheru Aran]

Jeb is really fairly reasonable... for a Republican. He does seem to be more intelligent than W (which isn't saying much, granted).

I've seen a lot of people on my personal FB feed saying they support Carson, which is odd because he's an idiot. I wonder how much of that is "hey let's support the black guy"? Or maybe it's just that he manages to hit a lot of conservative American buttons. Growing up from poverty in Detroit, becoming famous doctor, writes best-selling book that becomes a movie, etc...

[Raw Shark]

Jeb is not only pro-immigration, he speaks fluent Spanish, converted to Roman Catholicism, and has been married to a lady from Mexico for over forty years. The Latino vote is at the very least up for grabs if he runs.

[Elheru Aran]

Jeb is not only pro-immigration, he speaks fluent Spanish, converted to Roman Catholicism, and has been married to a lady from Mexico for over forty years. The Latino vote is at the very least up for grabs if he runs.

Yeah. Other Hispanics look askance at Rubio because there's a bit of antagonism between them and Cuban Hispanics, and Cruz, well, Cruz is barely Hispanic (born in fucking Canada and does he even speak Spanish?). Neither of them have particularly good records on immigration as well. So yeah, Jeb is definitely going to be a popular option for the Latinos.

Hillary on the other hand... I can't say I recall a whole lot of anything she's done as far as the US Hispanic community goes, apart from being part of the generally pro-immigration Obama administration. No doubt there was some stuff when she was First Lady, but I barely remember that, you know?

This election, I think, is going to display the difference between the age demographics in a fairly dramatic way, more so than the past couple. We are getting to the point where people born in the 90s are able to vote alongside those born in the 1920s and 30s, although really the baby-boomers are probably a more significant demographic. It's going to turn into a baby-boomers versus millennials contest. That's gonna be interesting.

[Tribble]

How is it that Ted Cruz is even allowed to run? He was born in Canada and although I'm not shedding any tears over the fact that he left, doesn't that make him ineligible? I find it odd that his Republican competitors are being quiet about this, one would think they would have pounced on it the moment he decided to throw in his hat. I mean, all his competitors have to say is "he was born in Canada, and can't legally run" and that takes care of that.

[Raw Shark]

It's ironic that the Great Latino Hope in this election is the epitomy of the privileged WASP Phillips-Educated younger son, but the evidence seems to strongly indicate that he actually (even literally, in at least one case) loves them with more effort than anybody would plausibly put into a pose. Speaking as a leftist, I think this makes him a major threat that could burglarize an entire demographic that we sort of count on, but the man seems genuine.

[Lagmonster]

I don't know Jeb's policies, but if they don't start calling him "John" it's going to seem like you're trying to run a googly-eyed hillbilly with teeth the size of credit cards, 'cause that's the image that I get when people say his...acronym? Nickname? What the hell do you call it when people use your initials as your name?