Saudi Arabia may be going nuclear.

[The Romulan Republic]

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-officials-s ... an-1501733

Saudi Arabia is said to have taken the "strategic decision" to acquire "off-the-shelf" nuclear weapons from ally Pakistan, senior US officials told the Sunday Times.

Sunni Arab states are increasingly concerned of the repercussions of a deal currently being negotiated between world powers and Shi'ite rival Iran, which they fear may still be able to develop a nuclear bomb.

The deal being negotiated between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany would see the Shi'ite nation curb its sensitive nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

"For the Saudis the moment has come," a former US defence official told the Sunday Times last week.

"There has been a long-standing agreement in place with the Pakistanis and the House of Saud has now made the strategic decision to move forward."

'This stuff is available to them off the shelf'

Another US official working in intelligence told the paper that "hundreds of people at [CIA headquarters] Langley" were working to establish whether Islamabad had already supplied the Gulf nation with nuclear technology or weaponry.

"We know this stuff is available to them off the shelf," the intelligence official said, adding that it "has to be the assumption" that the Saudis have decided to become a nuclear power.

"We can't sit back and be nowhere as Iran is allowed to retain much of its capability and amass its research," an Arab leader preparing to meet Obama told the New York Times on Monday (11 May).

The sentiment was shared by former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki bin Faisal, who told a recent conference in South Korea: "whatever the Iranians have, we will have, too."

The right to enrich uranium

If inked the deal will leave 5,000 centrifuges and a research and development programme in place — features that are highly contested by Israel and Arab states.

By allowing Iran to retain the right to enrich uranium, the deal may inadvertently increase nuclear proliferation in the region, by providing justification for other Middle Eastern countries to match Iran.

Saudi Arabia has financed substantial amounts of Islamabad's nuclear programme over the past three decades, providing Pakistan's government with billions of dollars of subsidised oil while taking delivery of Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles.

"Given their close relations and close military links, it's long been assumed that if the Saudis wanted, they would call in a commitment, moral or otherwise, for Pakistan to supply them immediately with nuclear warheads," former Foreign Secretary Lord David Owen told the Sunday Times.

A senior British military officer also told the paper that Western military leaders "all assume the Saudis have made the decision to go nuclear."

"The fear is that other Middle Eastern powers — Turkey and Egypt — may feel compelled to do the same and we will see a new, even more dangerous, arms race."

Lt.Gen. Khalid Kidwai, who helped develop Pakistan's nuclear program, denied Islamabad had ever sent nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia or any other country in recent comments.

Fucking dicks.

I pray this is bull shit.

[wautd]

Great idea to give a fundamentalistic fascist regime nuclear weapons. What could possibly go wrong?

[The Romulan Republic]

I wonder how the US government will react to their buddies in the Saudi government getting nuclear weapons. Will this make them reconsider their close ties or simply try to weasel their way out of being consistent in their condemnation of dictatorial Middle Eastern states getting nuclear weapons?

[Zaune]

Anything that might deter a future Republican administration from nuking Mecca because fuck you that's why can't be all bad.

[Broomstick]

Is this really surprising or shocking?

Of course the Middle East wants nukes. Just like North Korea did. And probably others that don't come to mind at the moment. As soon as one gets one the others want one. The fact Israel has had them for awhile is a thorn in the side of the Muslim powers near them.

The biggest problem down the road, as I see it, is that conflicts in the Middle East seem to go over the moral/Geneva Convention line. Note the use of chemical weapons. Burning people alive. That sort of thing. If nukes become more common in the Middle East I think it's more likely they will be used than in other parts of the world, not immediately but at some point down the line. And, of course, they will be used against civilians, to destroy cities. Given that's it's the Middle East it will also destroy a lot of history and it will take much longer for the area to recover than it did for Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[Sea Skimmer]

For anyone who ever paid attention the Saudis have long made it clear through back channels that if the Iranian nuclear program wasn't halted completely they would do the same. Its also long been claimed that the Pakistani nuclear program had Saudi funding and an agreement that Saudi would get the bomb from them should it deem it necessary. This is stuff that was being claimed in the early 1980s when the Pakistani bomb first became real, and it was thought Iran might try to build a crude bomb to beat Saddam.

Thanks to China Saudi Arabia also already has a stock of DF-3 and DF-21 IRBMs as a delivery system. They've never been known to test fire or otherwise train with these systems to date, they've just kept them in some bunkers tunneled into mountains. Iran of course also has already spent a huge amount of money designing its own long range missiles.

Overall zero point zero has changed. The Saudis are just saying what they've said before to try to scuttle the nuclear deal with Iran in the US congress.

[cosmicalstorm]

It will make the eventual disintegration of Iran or Saudi a lot more interesting I guess.

[Irbis]

It will make the eventual disintegration of Iran or Saudi a lot more interesting I guess.

Why would Iran disintegrate, again?

[cosmicalstorm]

I don't know. They attempted to do it in 2009. They had a revolution in 1979. They had the whole BP-Shah thing before that, but with nuclear weapons I guess they will run less risk of foreign intervention. They seem posed to fight some kind of multidecade war with the Sunnis in the future but hopefully that will be a proxy.

[Titan Uranus]

Neither of those events threatened disintegration, both states are much too homogeneous for their disintegration to be in any way likely.

As to the OP, it's too bad that we allowed a bunch of illiterate nomads to gain so much power, when it would have be trivial to stop them, oh well.
(Note that I am talking about every gulf oil state except Iran and Iraq.)

[Pelranius]

I'll believe the Pakistani nukes to Iran when I see it (though a lot of that is simply rumor fatigue). There's a CNAS study from 2012, IIRC, which states why Pakistani wouldn't do so, but a lot has changed in the past three years, I suppose.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I don't know. They attempted to do it in 2009. They had a revolution in 1979. They had the whole BP-Shah thing before that, but with nuclear weapons I guess they will run less risk of foreign intervention. They seem posed to fight some kind of multidecade war with the Sunnis in the future but hopefully that will be a proxy.

The Persians have had a government one way or another for the last few centuries.... If by anything, they have been dealing with Arab Bedouins far longer than the West has.

[Broomstick]

For anyone who ever paid attention the Saudis have long made it clear through back channels that if the Iranian nuclear program wasn't halted completely they would do the same. Its also long been claimed that the Pakistani nuclear program had Saudi funding and an agreement that Saudi would get the bomb from them should it deem it necessary. This is stuff that was being claimed in the early 1980s when the Pakistani bomb first became real, and it was thought Iran might try to build a crude bomb to beat Saddam.

Thanks to China Saudi Arabia also already has a stock of DF-3 and DF-21 IRBMs as a delivery system. They've never been known to test fire or otherwise train with these systems to date, they've just kept them in some bunkers tunneled into mountains. Iran of course also has already spent a huge amount of money designing its own long range missiles.

^ This.

Of course Saudi Arabia is planning to get some nukes. Seriously, why wouldn't they with hostile neighbors either having or acquiring them? This should surprise no one. Even their outsourcing - Pakistani bomb, Chinese delivery system - is typical of them. Frankly, this does look entirely defensive on their part, having the machinery in place but not using it to even acquire a weapon until they feel a threat. I doubt we need to worry about the Saudis striking first, this seems more of them setting up a MAD situation at most.

I'm much more concerned with some of the other players getting nukes, people who are likely less inhibited about using them.

We ARE going see nukes used in warfare again at some point. I'm just hoping things don't get to crazy when it does happen. I'd still like to die of a healthy, advanced old age in bed with global civilization still intact around me.

[Eternal_Freedom]

I wonder how the US government will react to their buddies in the Saudi government getting nuclear weapons. Will this make them reconsider their close ties or simply try to weasel their way out of being consistent in their condemnation of dictatorial Middle Eastern states getting nuclear weapons?

Honestly? They'll probably be more annoyed about the Saudis getting them from Pakistan rather than trying to negotiate/buy them from the US after all the other military hardware the US sold them.

[FTeik]

[sarcasm] So when do you think US/UN will start to discuss sanctions against Saudi-Arabia to prevent them from going nuclear? [/sarcasm]

[Purple]

As soon as the oil runs out.

[Simon_Jester]

Neither of those events threatened disintegration, both states are much too homogeneous for their disintegration to be in any way likely.

Iran won't disintegrate territorially, but its political government could- that's happened before plenty of times. Sure, the Iranian concept of Persian nationhood will ensure that all Iranians will eventually join some Persian government, but that doesn't mean there won't be conflict between political factions with different visions for how that Persia is going to work.

Saudi Arabia might disintegrate territorially- it's homogeneous but the only thing holding it together is a monarchical dynasty that has very little going for it other than inertia and a knack for pitting both ends against the middle. It is, in my opinion, almost certain that the country will disintegrate politically, because of that dynasty's weaknesses. Also because they have done so much to nourish Sunni fundamentalism within their own country that at some point it may well become practical for the fundamentalist imams to declare that they have no further need of the House of Saud and start ruling directly, as in Iran or Taliban-era Afghanistan.

Honestly? They'll probably be more annoyed about the Saudis getting them from Pakistan rather than trying to negotiate/buy them from the US after all the other military hardware the US sold them.

One offense against world peace the US has NOT committed is spreading nuclear technology to minor nations. While the US has occasionally tolerated nuclear proliferation, it has not actively encouraged it. Nor have the Russians or the Chinese. So... no.

[Elheru Aran]

A big contributing factor to the Saudi's possible disintegration is how stratified their royal family is becoming. For the past couple decades or so, all the inheritors of the throne have been the sons of Ibn Saud... who died way back in, what, the 60s, and his boys were in their 40s or so by then. So they're getting pretty fucking old now. And with the whole polygamy thing, that means they had an assload of kids... who have since had assloads themselves... who will likely never see the throne because they're spread out so much. You've got a young generation of royals who basically have had nothing to do but fool around in million-dollar cars, junket forth every now and then in the military, being waited on hand and foot their entire lives while Grandpa helps Great-Great-Uncle Salman run the country.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Honestly? They'll probably be more annoyed about the Saudis getting them from Pakistan rather than trying to negotiate/buy them from the US after all the other military hardware the US sold them.

One offense against world peace the US has NOT committed is spreading nuclear technology to minor nations. While the US has occasionally tolerated nuclear proliferation, it has not actively encouraged it. Nor have the Russians or the Chinese. So... no.

Honestly, I was being flippant and cynical. But I would be surprised if some idiot (some GOP lunatic most likely) doesn't at least mention this, probably in terms of "betraying our trust" or "turning away from their most important ally" or something.

[Broomstick]

Huh, I wasn't aware of anyone, even the crazies, ever suggesting the US sell nuclear weapon technology to anyone.