Russia's army is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of weaponry including mobile rocket launchers, tanks and artillery at a makeshift base near the border with Ukraine, a Reuters reporter saw this week.
Many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues. As such, they match the appearance of some of the forces spotted in eastern Ukraine, which Kiev and its Western allies allege are covert Russian detachments.
The scene at the base on the Kuzminsky firing range, around 50 km (30 miles) from the border, offers some of the clearest evidence to date of what appeared to be a concerted Russian military build-up in the area.
Earlier this month, NATO military commander General Philip Breedlove said he believed the separatists were taking advantage of a ceasefire that came into force in February to re-arm and prepare for a new offensive. However, he gave no specifics.
Russia denies that its military is involved in the conflict in Ukraine's east, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting forces loyal to the pro-Western government in Kiev.
Russia's defense ministry said it had no immediate comment about the build-up. Several soldiers said they had been sent to the base for simple military exercises, suggesting their presence was unconnected to the situation in Ukraine.
Asked by Reuters if large numbers of unmarked weaponry and troops without insignia at the border indicated that Russia planned to invade Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with reporters:
"I find the wording of this question, 'if an invasion is being prepared', inappropriate as such."
The weapons being delivered there included Uragan multiple rocket launchers, tanks and self-propelled howitzers -- all weapon types that have been used in the conflict in eastern Ukraine between Kiev's forces and separatists.
The amount of military hardware at the base was about three times greater than in March this year, when Reuters journalists were previously in the area. At that time, only a few dozen pieces of equipment were in view.
Over the course of fours days starting on Saturday, Reuters saw four goods trains with military vehicles and troops arriving at a rail station in the Rostov region of southern Russia, with at least two trainloads traveling on by road to the base.
A large section of dirt road leading across the steppe from the Kuzminsky range to the Ukrainian border had been freshly repaired, making it more passable for heavy vehicles.
The road leads to a quiet border crossing typically only used by local residents. On the other side is Ukraine's Luhansk region, which is controlled by separatists and has been the scene of intense fighting.
MARCHING ORDERS
Valentina Melnikova, a human rights campaigner who works closely with families of Russian servicemen, said she had information that Rostov region was being used as a staging post for troops on their way to Ukraine.
She said the information came from the mother of a serviceman stationed in the town of Totskoye, in the Orenburg region near Russia's border with Kazakhstan.
Melnikova said the serviceman heard from commanders that "they are going to be transferred to Rostov region after May 20 and then to Ukraine. They signed papers about non-disclosure of information and about acting voluntarily.
"Of course it was an order. How could it be voluntarily? They are servicemen," said Melnikova, who runs the Moscow-based Alliance of Soldiers' Mothers Committees.
Her account could not be independently verified by Reuters.
In some cases where Russian citizens have been captured in Ukraine by forces loyal to Kiev, Russian officials have said they were there of their own accord and were either on leave from the armed forces or had quit the military.
More military hardware trundles into the Matveev Kurgan railway station on goods trains every day.
A train that pulled in on Tuesday was carrying 16 T-72 tanks, and a number of military trucks.
A local woman who was at the station with a pre-school age girl looked at the tanks on flat-bed rail cars, sighed, and said: "Nothing surprises me any more."
Over the four days, trains arrived delivering a total of at least 26 tanks, about 30 Uragan launchers, dozens of trucks as well as several armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers.
On two occasions, after the trains had been unloaded, reporters followed the column of vehicles to the firing range -- a location that has already been linked indirectly to the fighting in Ukraine.
Bellingcat, a British-based group of volunteers who use social media to investigate conflicts, analyzed postings by Russian soldiers on social network accounts, including geo-location tags on photos, and concluded that some of those in Ukraine had earlier been at the Kuzminsky range.
A former Russian soldier said last year, when he was on active military service, that he underwent training at the range and was later sent up to the Ukrainian border. Once at the border he was ordered to fire Grad rockets, although he said he could not be certain they were fired into Ukraine. He also said some members of his unit had crossed into Ukraine.
"That's a very big firing range. We studied for two weeks, we had a quick course. After that we got the order and went to the border," said the former soldier, who did not want to be identified because the operation has not been made public
Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
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Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
The Russian invasion of Ukraine might continue very soon, every soldier is there on vacation of course
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
You can't actually be dumb enough to post an article like this and forget to post the link, can you? Don't come crying to me when Thanas bans you.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
I forgot that, sorry. The Reuters page is shit-coded, it crashes my Mozilla browser every time.
Exclusive: Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/ ... K820150527
Exclusive: Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/ ... K820150527
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
On their way to vacation in Ukraine. Nothing weird. Train may later be hijacked by separatists, or something.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
After all the times in the last few months that you've cried "wolf!" by listening to panicky alarmist sites, I'm having a hard time taking you seriously. This may be a mistake on my end, but... seriously, here's the thing.
Everybody knows the Russians have been not-so-subtly arming the separatists. I don't think anyone really doubts that. Nor is it really in doubt that the Russians have sent, let's say 'advisors' into the Ukraine to aid the separatists.
So is that the limit of what you and/or the article are claiming? Or are you insinuating something else or something more?
Also, the dramatic thread titles are getting old. But that's a side issue.
Everybody knows the Russians have been not-so-subtly arming the separatists. I don't think anyone really doubts that. Nor is it really in doubt that the Russians have sent, let's say 'advisors' into the Ukraine to aid the separatists.
So is that the limit of what you and/or the article are claiming? Or are you insinuating something else or something more?
Also, the dramatic thread titles are getting old. But that's a side issue.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Simon, it is Reuters. Not an alarmist website.
And the seperatists have taken some ground in the last weeks that might be preparation for an offensive towards Mariupol.
And the seperatists have taken some ground in the last weeks that might be preparation for an offensive towards Mariupol.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Yeah it's Reuters but you got to admit that Simon has a point about cosmicalstorm having a history of posting alarmist "sky is falling!" articles with little to know source criticism, that make taking him seriously hard. In fact only reason I consider this might really be something important is that source.Thanas wrote:Simon, it is Reuters. Not an alarmist website.
And the seperatists have taken some ground in the last weeks that might be preparation for an offensive towards Mariupol.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
I am not disputing his history, but I would appreciate it if people would read the post, not the poster.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Well, with the ongoing sanctions, sabre rattling,and even direct name-calling that has been going on, it was only a question of time until Putin was going to say fuck it.
I am fully expecting them to come out with a press memo in the liking of "Since the West utterly failed to end the situation they created by mwddling with internal Ukrainian problems, Russia will now move in to end the hostilities and save uncoutable millions of lives, and give the people the chance to have a fair and democratic referendum on how their peaceful future will look like. Bla-blah, yada, yada... Signed, Putin."
I am fully expecting them to come out with a press memo in the liking of "Since the West utterly failed to end the situation they created by mwddling with internal Ukrainian problems, Russia will now move in to end the hostilities and save uncoutable millions of lives, and give the people the chance to have a fair and democratic referendum on how their peaceful future will look like. Bla-blah, yada, yada... Signed, Putin."
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Nah, what will happen is that they will attempt (and most likely succeed) to take Mariupol, which gives them the necessary land link to the Crimea. Of course, then a sham referendum will be called to legitimize it after the fact.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
No, that will just give them a Black Sea port. It's a much longer way to Crimea from Mariupol and would require all out war against Ukraine. The distance from Mariupol to Crimea along the coast is twice as long as the distance between Donetsk and Mariupol.Thanas wrote:Nah, what will happen is that they will attempt (and most likely succeed) to take Mariupol, which gives them the necessary land link to the Crimea. Of course, then a sham referendum will be called to legitimize it after the fact.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Well the Russians are building a bridge from Russia to Crimea, so securing the land link might not be so important.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Yeah, not only I think we saw this exact same scaremongering article saw posted here similar times (or so similar it looks identical), all it states is that troops are being sent to firing range 60 km away from border. What exactly is so newsworthy about it?Simon_Jester wrote:After all the times in the last few months that you've cried "wolf!" by listening to panicky alarmist sites, I'm having a hard time taking you seriously. This may be a mistake on my end, but... seriously, here's the thing.
Also, the dramatic thread titles are getting old. But that's a side issue.
And that's ignoring his bullshit troll bait subtitle on photo stating 'On their way to vacation in Ukraine' when article states nothing even remotely similar to this.
That's not Reuters. That's their Eastern European correspondent, Maria Tsvetkova, who is a glorified blogger selling news to about two dozen of titles, many of them Ukrainian, if headlines in Google are accurate. I wouldn't call that unbiased source, exactly. Did anyone else confirm it?Thanas wrote:Simon, it is Reuters. Not an alarmist website.
By the way, I seem to recall even NATO headquarters also cried wolf how Russians "mass" troops several times last year and nothing ever came from that either. Or did they finally found these "perfect" satellite photos of massed Russian troops, hidden right next to Iraqi WMDs?
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Indeed. The so-called "land link" would only start with Mariupol and will require the resumption of fullscale hostilities on the entire frontline. A totally different goal compared to protecting and solidifying the borders of the unrecognized satellites.Edi wrote:No, that will just give them a Black Sea port. It's a much longer way to Crimea from Mariupol and would require all out war against Ukraine. The distance from Mariupol to Crimea along the coast is twice as long as the distance between Donetsk and Mariupol.Thanas wrote:Nah, what will happen is that they will attempt (and most likely succeed) to take Mariupol, which gives them the necessary land link to the Crimea. Of course, then a sham referendum will be called to legitimize it after the fact.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
They are not. They took a look at the muddy ground, the impossible static, concluded the cost for the bridge alone would be in the billions and then stopped. No actual planning or construction has started.mr friendly guy wrote:Well the Russians are building a bridge from Russia to Crimea, so securing the land link might not be so important.
Germanys most respected newspaper confirms seperatists are fighting in villages on the way to Mariupol.FAZ.Irbis wrote:That's not Reuters. That's their Eastern European correspondent, Maria Tsvetkova, who is a glorified blogger selling news to about two dozen of titles, many of them Ukrainian, if headlines in Google are accurate. I wouldn't call that unbiased source, exactly. Did anyone else confirm it?
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A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
In related news: Reporting on the death of Russian soldiers is now verboten as Putin classified those deaths as national secrets.
Link
Link
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Put this way.Thanas wrote:Simon, it is Reuters. Not an alarmist website.
And the seperatists have taken some ground in the last weeks that might be preparation for an offensive towards Mariupol.
I can easily accept that the separatists are bracing for an offensive. It's a civil war, one that is not over; it's entirely to be expected that the separatists will be planning offensives. And that the Russians are arming them, not so subtly. And that the Russians are filtering troops across the border in small numbers to 'advise' the separatists.
What is NOT even slightly obvious or certain is that the Russians are planning to invade the Ukrainian side of the border with formed units. And that is what Cosmicalstorm is claiming given the way he worded his title and his own words in the post.on Polish cities.
Is it possible? Yes. Is it something anyone other than Chicken Little would be foolish enough to label "Upcoming Russian-Ukrainian War?" I doubt it.
The Reuters article, and I'm sorry I didn't put this analysis out there sooner, has the hearsay evidence of one person claiming that formed Russian units are about to be deployed into (and invade) the Ukraine. There's clearly a military buildup, but its actual intent is unclear; if I were the Russian government I might well deploy troops there with a notion of using them only in an unexpected emergency, for instance.
The separatists building up an offensive in the direction of Mariupol has little or nothing to do with the question of whether the Russians are planning to invade in the near future. They'd have reason to launch such an attack regardless of what the Russians are planning.Thanas wrote:Germanys most respected newspaper confirms seperatists are fighting in villages on the way to Mariupol.FAZ.Irbis wrote:That's not Reuters. That's their Eastern European correspondent, Maria Tsvetkova, who is a glorified blogger selling news to about two dozen of titles, many of them Ukrainian, if headlines in Google are accurate. I wouldn't call that unbiased source, exactly. Did anyone else confirm it?
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
For me it's not anything in particular. It's a general feeling I get referenced towards world history that gives me a bad feeling about this situation. Of course this time everyone has nukes so thats really different. Maybe this will just continue to putter and become another forgotten conflict and I'm just a paranoid fuckwit. Will be interesting to see.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
The point is that there is nothing to be gained by constantly asserting doom and gloom and selectively believing whatever news alarms you most.
We have a name for what happens when you allow your "general feelings" to influence which pieces of evidence you believe and promulgate toward others. It's called bias.
We have a name for what happens when you allow your "general feelings" to influence which pieces of evidence you believe and promulgate toward others. It's called bias.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
If it was me, I'd suspect Putin of setting up a false flag operation: have units under his control in Ukraine attack the large and obvious Russian force stationed on his side of the border, claim it was the Kyiv government, and now he has just enough plausible cover to do whatever the hell he wants. Most countries wouldn't believe it, but we've seen it doesn't take much of a smokescreen for him.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
That is plausible although... my gut says no, but I was just talking the other day about not thinking with your gut.
I mean, it's a fairly common ploy- Hitler used it against Poland, Japan used it against China. On the other hand, the "large and obvious Russian force" is stationed in bases that are actually many miles from the border, which undermines the effect.
I mean, it's a fairly common ploy- Hitler used it against Poland, Japan used it against China. On the other hand, the "large and obvious Russian force" is stationed in bases that are actually many miles from the border, which undermines the effect.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Unless that force can teleport somehow there's this slight problem of the whole separatist zone between Russia proper and Ukraine, sooo...ZOmegaZ wrote:If it was me, I'd suspect Putin of setting up a false flag operation: have units under his control in Ukraine attack the large and obvious Russian force stationed on his side of the border, claim it was the Kyiv government, and now he has just enough plausible cover to do whatever the hell he wants. Most countries wouldn't believe it, but we've seen it doesn't take much of a smokescreen for him.
Bad feeling not supported by facts happens to be called conspiracy theory in 99 cases out of 100.cosmicalstorm wrote:For me it's not anything in particular. It's a general feeling I get referenced towards world history that gives me a bad feeling about this situation.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
It's plausible that Russia might want to do this, since that's one of the few things that could even remotely conceivably happen that would make an invasion of the Ukraine anything even infinitesimally more than a naked land grab on their part.
Not particularly plausible that it would happen, especially not on the part of the border the separatists occupy.
Not particularly plausible that it would happen, especially not on the part of the border the separatists occupy.
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
The Russians don't need to. Their control over the media and propaganda is so great that nobody much cared about their people murdering hundreds of civilians by shooting down a civilian jet. We have seen it all along. They were shelling Ukraininan positions over the border - people denied it here. They were sending tanks - people denied it here for a long time. I am sure that if the Russians were to attack Mariupol, we will have the great deniers rise up again to state that the seperatists might have attacked first etc. Same thing as with Debavaltse, which the Russians took in clear violation of the Minsk agreement and after a declared ceasefire. And people on this very board actually tried to spin that as the seperatists being noble and offereing the Ukrainians a way out if they would just kindly leave their weapons behind and vacate the city they held.
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A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
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Re: Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war
Nobody cared much, because people never care much. Has there been much care over IAF 655? No. Perhaps you wanted to say that the people are lied to about the civilian jet and the cause of its shootdown and they largely accepted a lie. In this case you are probably wrong. Most people, except for paid government bots, do admit that it was downed by a separatist SAM.Thanas wrote:Their control over the media and propaganda is so great that nobody much cared about their people murdering hundreds of civilians by shooting down a civilian jet.
Separatists will attack it if they want to survive. The rump territories they hold now are insufficient to maintain anything resembling even an "unrecognized state" like PMR in Moldova or Abkhazia in Georgia.Thanas wrote:I am sure that if the Russians were to attack Mariupol, we will have the great deniers rise up again to state that the seperatists might have attacked first etc.
Who? The separatists did encircle the Ukrainian units, and of course they did not open up the cauldron no matter what agreements had been made at the time. I am pretty sure that the military logic of leaving a cauldron of armed enemy troops inside your territory is nonexistent. So obviously they had to do it even if it went against the agreements. And, moreover, they will have to break the agreements if they want to exist as a Russian satellite state, I would say. Although Russia may force them back into Ukraine, so far it has shown very little intent in doing so - right now the armed units operating there are brought under ever more tight Russian control every day, wiping out any field commander who may have a different view on things.Thanas wrote:And people on this very board actually tried to spin that as the seperatists being noble and offereing the Ukrainians a way out if they would just kindly leave their weapons behind and vacate the city they held.
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