Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war

[Thanas]

Their control over the media and propaganda is so great that nobody much cared about their people murdering hundreds of civilians by shooting down a civilian jet.

Nobody cared much, because people never care much. Has there been much care over IAF 655? No. Perhaps you wanted to say that the people are lied to about the civilian jet and the cause of its shootdown and they largely accepted a lie. In this case you are probably wrong. Most people, except for paid government bots, do admit that it was downed by a separatist SAM.

A seperatist SAM most likely operated by a Russian crew and most likely having been sent from Russia.

Separatists will attack it if they want to survive. The rump territories they hold now are insufficient to maintain anything resembling even an "unrecognized state" like PMR in Moldova or Abkhazia in Georgia.

They will attack because Russia supports their attacks and/or tells them to attack.

Who?

Vympel.

The separatists did encircle the Ukrainian units, and of course they did not open up the cauldron no matter what agreements had been made at the time. I am pretty sure that the military logic of leaving a cauldron of armed enemy troops inside your territory is nonexistent. So obviously they had to do it even if it went against the agreements.

Ah, they "had" to do it? No. They chose to do it. They could have abided by the agreement. Nobody forced them to do it.

And, moreover, they will have to break the agreements if they want to exist as a Russian satellite state, I would say. Although Russia may force them back into Ukraine, so far it has shown very little intent in doing so - right now the armed units operating there are brought under ever more tight Russian control every day, wiping out any field commander who may have a different view on things.

So the Russians are in fact coordinating the aggression then. K.

[Simon_Jester]

A seperatist SAM most likely operated by a Russian crew and most likely having been sent from Russia.

The SAM was almost certainly sent from RUssia, but would you mind reviewing for our benefit the evidence that has persuaded you the crew was Russian?

Separatists will attack it if they want to survive. The rump territories they hold now are insufficient to maintain anything resembling even an "unrecognized state" like PMR in Moldova or Abkhazia in Georgia.

They will attack because Russia supports their attacks and/or tells them to attack.

So your argument is that it does not matter if attacking is a military necessity for the rebels, the real reason they attack is because Russia orders it?

The separatists did encircle the Ukrainian units, and of course they did not open up the cauldron no matter what agreements had been made at the time. I am pretty sure that the military logic of leaving a cauldron of armed enemy troops inside your territory is nonexistent. So obviously they had to do it even if it went against the agreements.

Ah, they "had" to do it? No. They chose to do it. They could have abided by the agreement. Nobody forced them to do it.

Just to be clear, you're saying that the rebels, having surrounded a government army, were supposed to let that army retreat with their weapons, rather than without them?

Am I confused here?

[Lonestar]

Well the Russians are building a bridge from Russia to Crimea, so securing the land link might not be so important.

Is there something that makes a bridge difficulty to build there? I feel as if this would have been something the USSR would have built if it was easy enough.

[mr friendly guy]

Well the Russians are building a bridge from Russia to Crimea, so securing the land link might not be so important.

Is there something that makes a bridge difficulty to build there? I feel as if this would have been something the USSR would have built if it was easy enough.

Thanas explained it to me earlier. Maybe they should outsource the work to the Chinese.

[Thanas]

A seperatist SAM most likely operated by a Russian crew and most likely having been sent from Russia.

The SAM was almost certainly sent from RUssia, but would you mind reviewing for our benefit the evidence that has persuaded you the crew was Russian?

The Buk takes allegedly at least half a year to train and it takes a whole crew which is familiar with working with each other. The Seperatists by their own admission had no such crews. However, there just happen to be several trained crews from air defence regiments being ordered into Ukraine. So the chance that they were not operated by a Russian crew is very very small, especially because the Russians don't have a history of handing over very valuable systems to the Rebels.

So your argument is that it does not matter if attacking is a military necessity for the rebels, the real reason they attack is because Russia orders it?

If they are under Russian command - and Stas seems to say that Russia now has that - then sure.

Just to be clear, you're saying that the rebels, having surrounded a government army, were supposed to let that army retreat with their weapons, rather than without them?

Am I confused here?

Yes? After all that was what was agreed upon.

[Thanas]

Well the Russians are building a bridge from Russia to Crimea, so securing the land link might not be so important.

Is there something that makes a bridge difficulty to build there? I feel as if this would have been something the USSR would have built if it was easy enough.

Yeah, Money. The total investment Russia will have to make in the Crimea to keep it running after Ukraine cut them off will reach at least 18 billion through 2020. Keep in mind that bridge cost estimates have already gone up from 1.8 billion dollars to 8 billion dollars and most certainly will only rise. Then there are the geological problems - very muddy water with shifting and unstable ground. There is a reason why the USSR declined to build a bridge there as well, they didn't view it worth the cost. Also, in winter, you get heavy iceflow (this destroyed the bridges built by the germans and soviets in WWII). And unless the bridge is fully enclosed with heavy roof protection, it will be inoperable for at least one month due to winter storms and heavy crosswinds. There is a reason why we find so many shipwrecks in that region. And they planned to build a bridge since middle of 2014 and couldn't find anybody to take it on (that should tell you something), so in the end a friend of Putin with no experience in building bridges (oil pipeline builder) got the contract. If they were smart and less concerned about having an image of Putin striding across the Kerch strait, they would start drilling a very very deep tunnel instead. That one at least would not get warped by crosswinds. Or they would simply invest in a ferry service, but that would most likely be not sufficient.

So unless they can somehow pull this one off (allegedly construction started in May 2015, but nothing has been shown except some gravel being moved) I would imagine Russia needs to get a land connect to the Crimea.

[GuppyShark]

The Buk takes allegedly at least half a year to train and it takes a whole crew which is familiar with working with each other. The Seperatists by their own admission had no such crews. However, there just happen to be several trained crews from air defence regiments being ordered into Ukraine. So the chance that they were not operated by a Russian crew is very very small, especially because the Russians don't have a history of handing over very valuable systems to the Rebels.

On the other hand, Russia seems to be able to operate these vehicles elsewhere without shooting down civilian airliners.

[Thanas]

The Buk takes allegedly at least half a year to train and it takes a whole crew which is familiar with working with each other. The Seperatists by their own admission had no such crews. However, there just happen to be several trained crews from air defence regiments being ordered into Ukraine. So the chance that they were not operated by a Russian crew is very very small, especially because the Russians don't have a history of handing over very valuable systems to the Rebels.

On the other hand, Russia seems to be able to operate these vehicles elsewhere without shooting down civilian airliners.

They are also not fighting against an enemy air force elsewhere, are they?

[GuppyShark]

That is a fair point and one that occurred to me, but haven't regular Russian army elements been engaged in hostilities not too long ago? ie in Georgia?

[Simon_Jester]

The Buk takes allegedly at least half a year to train and it takes a whole crew which is familiar with working with each other. The Seperatists by their own admission had no such crews. However, there just happen to be several trained crews from air defence regiments being ordered into Ukraine. So the chance that they were not operated by a Russian crew is very very small, especially because the Russians don't have a history of handing over very valuable systems to the Rebels.

On the other hand, Russia seems to be able to operate these vehicles elsewhere without shooting down civilian airliners.

In fairness, Russian air defense's ability to not shoot down civilians is... blemished.

This is especially true when the airliners in question are operating in an imprudent way. Flying through restricted airspace where the Soviets were already trigger-happy because several of their air defense officers had gotten in trouble for failing to stop US reconaissance flights. Or flying relatively low over an active war zone (seriously, both the Ukrainian government AND the Ukrainian rebels should have warned civilian flights out of that airspace or at least established a much lower "floor" below which those flights were not allowed to travel).

Personally I have no strong opinion on whether the SAM battery's crew were Russians, Ukrainian rebels with army experience, or Ukrainian rebels trained from scratch (presumably by Russians).

[Thanas]

That is a fair point and one that occurred to me, but haven't regular Russian army elements been engaged in hostilities not too long ago? ie in Georgia?

Yes, but Georgia had scarcely an air force worth speaking of (less than 20 combat aircraft at the start of the conflict and iirc less than half operational, of which they lost 3 rather quickly) and no high-level bombers. Plus, Georgia isn't the direct flight corridor to Asia as Ukraine was. Russia enjoyed total air superiority in the conflict as well, unlike the Ukrainian war. So there really wasn't much reason to be scared of an air attack in Georgia, whereas Ukraine is known to have bombed separatist positions successfully. They probably had no radar active due to fear of getting located and artillery-targeted, then snapped on the radar, located what they thought to be a suitable target and fired. Their mistake was being sloppy, not verifying what code was getting squawked and not figuring out if the aircraft was actually attacking. Those are all mistakes that should be grounds enough for persecution IMO.

[K. A. Pital]

There is a reason why the USSR declined to build a bridge there as well, they didn't view it worth the cost.

The USSR had another functioning land connection to the place which was fully inside the nation and therefore secure. Of course it made zero sense to spend lots of money on the bridge.

And they planned to build a bridge since middle of 2014 and couldn't find anybody to take it on (that should tell you something), so in the end a friend of Putin with no experience in building bridges (oil pipeline builder) got the contract. If they were smart and less concerned about having an image of Putin striding across the Kerch strait, they would start drilling a very very deep tunnel instead. That one at least would not get warped by crosswinds. Or they would simply invest in a ferry service, but that would most likely be not sufficient.

The tunnel was considered but got rejected; the bridge proposal gained enough traction for starting the construction of the service bridge at the very least (and a service bridge without a real bridge to follow is, in my opinion, just a waste of cash). The ferry service already got more craft from Russia, but it does not help because it is even more weather-dependent than the bridge. The final proposal includes weather protection, so I would presume it is an all-weather connection, and also part of why the costs are going up. Initially, there was some deliberation on whether the bridge should be just automobile, or rail+auto, which made more sense and the government forced the rail link proposal.

The war in the East of Ukraine costs Russia a lot of money and will cost even more (not just direct costs - also sanctions, the economic losses in Crimea due to its warzone proximity and contested status), so there is always that to consider: the bridge might be the less costly option after all.

On the other hand, Russia seems to be able to operate these vehicles elsewhere without shooting down civilian airliners.

Even the US cannot operate its hardware without shooting down civilian airliners, apparently. But I would not be so sure Russia is not giving 'complex equipment' to the separatists. Just a bit of inside information that one reads is enough to conclude that Russia is not very careful with regards to who operates which weapons. They move stuff to the border, they move it beyond the border, they give it to the 'right people' (people that have links to the Russian Army generals known to be in charge of cross-border hardware supplies in the South) but what happens afterwards - do the "right people" keep operating it, do they change teams, etc. is unknown.

[Omega18]

The Russians don't need to. Their control over the media and propaganda is so great that nobody much cared about their people murdering hundreds of civilians by shooting down a civilian jet. We have seen it all along. They were shelling Ukraininan positions over the border - people denied it here. They were sending tanks - people denied it here for a long time. I am sure that if the Russians were to attack Mariupol, we will have the great deniers rise up again to state that the seperatists might have attacked first etc. Same thing as with Debavaltse, which the Russians took in clear violation of the Minsk agreement and after a declared ceasefire. And people on this very board actually tried to spin that as the seperatists being noble and offereing the Ukrainians a way out if they would just kindly leave their weapons behind and vacate the city they held.

Especially if you're talking about going beyond Mariupol and actually a full fledged effort to create a land bridge to Crimea, it really is not plausible that denial would work. You're talking about a very substantial amount of territory to take when you actually look at the distances. Simply taking a narrow strip of land would also effectively be strategically a non-starter long term and simply be too vulnerable in the future, while in the short term there would be too much of a risk of an advancing force getting cut off by a counterattack. This means the Russian invasion would involve having to take a significant amount of territory inland as well.

A related key point is particularly once Russian forces move beyond Donetsk, the population of the area should be dramatically more hostile.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mon ... vorossiya/

Look at figure 2 and the Zaporizha and Kherson results for the relevant figure related to this hypothetical offensive. Note that those polled represented by red by no means would necessarily welcome an outright Russian invasion where columns of tanks and the like.

The practical change particularly beyond Donetsk would be Russia would be dealing with a hostile population and an insurgency against them with all the military complications this involves. (Some Ukrainian troops who might be less motivated to fight and are inclined let at least part of Donetsk go are going to feel much differently about a region without the same extent of support for separatism or being annexed by Russia.) This simply means a far larger Russian force is going to be required to pull this off and its so great that no effort of internal Russian denial would conceal the fact they have invaded the Ukraine from the vast majority of the Russian population. A related issue with the troop needs is since Russia would still have to worry about counter attacks including in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, this would further increase the total number of Russian troops to try to pull this off properly.

Its also safe to safe the Russian population wouldn't look so favorably upon things once its explicitly clear they really have invaded Ukraine and made a serious military commitment as they are now stuck trying to suppress an insurgency in the territory they are newly occupying.

Another notable detail in my view is if Putin intended this sort of invasion I really would have expected him to have done it already. (Basically just about right after the end of winter in that part of the Ukraine at the latest.) At this point some Ukrainian forces have specifically been receiving training from US and other NATO forces and many of the initially inexperienced troops supporting the Ukrainian government are increasingly likely to have received enough experience and training to become more effective in combat. (Especially if presented with a situation where its more of a straightforward case of just protecting Ukrainian territory from a clear Russian invasion overwhelmingly opposed by the populace.)

My strong expectation at this point is Russia is ultimately going to fork out the money to build a bridge to Crimea rather than resort to that degree of further military escalation. If I am wrong I would certainly expect Russia to commit to such an invasion very soon rather than later.

[cosmicalstorm]

Lots of noise from Ukraine today. We will see were it goes.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

They have been shelling Donetsk for months. I guess the separatists got tired of it.

[K. A. Pital]

Seems like it's a bit more than just usual mortar fire, heavy artillery was used. There go the "Minsk agreements".

[Thanas]

Seems like it's a bit more than just usual mortar fire, heavy artillery was used. There go the "Minsk agreements".

They were dead once seperatist rockets started shelling Mariupol which has been going on for months. Both sides are not happy with it.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Seems like it's a bit more than just usual mortar fire, heavy artillery was used. There go the "Minsk agreements".

There were reports of rockets and artillery hitting Donetsk 1-2 weeks back. They have been escalating for a while I think.

Then again, I have no idea what news outlet to believe nowadays.

[K. A. Pital]

Seems like it's a bit more than just usual mortar fire, heavy artillery was used. There go the "Minsk agreements".

They were dead once seperatist rockets started shelling Mariupol which has been going on for months.

The shelling of Donetsk was going on since the agreements were first put in place, too.

[Mange]

Seems like it's a bit more than just usual mortar fire, heavy artillery was used. There go the "Minsk agreements".

There were reports of rockets and artillery hitting Donetsk 1-2 weeks back. They have been escalating for a while I think.

Then again, I have no idea what news outlet to believe nowadays.

Nonsense, there has been retaliatory shelling of the airport area, but reading tweets from the local population as well as the daily reports from the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), it's clear that it's mostly outgoing shelling from Donetsk (and from populated areas). The "separatists" are constantly shelling government-held cities and villages. Today Ukrainian positions in Shyrokyne, Lebedinske, Artemivsk, Svitlodarsk, Luhanske (not to be confused with Luhansk, both Luhanske and Svitlodarsk are located close to Debaltseve), Dzerzhynsk and Avdiivka (where civilian casualties and severed gas pipes have been reported) have been shelled.

As for the events yesterday, here's the OSCE SMM's report:

Spot report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), 3 June 2015: Fighting around Marinka



Summary

Fighting erupted around the government-controlled town of Marinka (23km west-south-west of Donetsk city centre) in the morning of 3 June. The SMM observed the movement of a large amount of heavy weapons in “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled areas – generally in a westerly direction towards the contact line – close to Marinka, preceding and during the fighting. Calm was restored by the early evening.

Detail

Between 22:30hrs on 2 June and 05:30hrs on 3 June, the SMM – positioned in the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled Tekstilshchik area of Donetsk city (14km east-north-east of Marinka) – made a number of observations. It observed, inter alia, eight tracked armoured vehicles moving west, four of which were main battle tanks (MBT) at 22:30hrs; four MBTs at 23:03hrs; a military-type truck moving west, towing a 122mm artillery piece at 23:45hrs; two T-64 MBTs moving west at 04:30hrs; and a column of one infantry fighting vehicle (BMP-2), three military trucks (one carrying an ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun), and two T-72 MBTs, moving west, at 04:50hrs. In addition, the SMM – at the same location – heard approximately 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 1-5km north-north-west of its position between 04:30 and 04:40hrs; an outgoing salvo of BM-21 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) Grad rockets fired from a location 1-5km west of its position at 04:55hrs; and, 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 5km north-north-west of its position.

Between 04:30 and 05:00hrs, the SMM – positioned in Donetsk city-centre – heard several salvos of outgoing MLRS rockets and approximately 100 incoming heavy-artillery rounds.

Between 07:00 and 08:00hrs, the SMM – mobile in an area 6-9km east of Marinka – observed seven T-64 MBTs facing west. In addition, it heard, on two separate occasions, more than five salvos of outgoing MLRS (BM-21) rockets and heavy-mortar rounds; and 12 outgoing MLRS Grad rockets and mortars.

At approximately 06:00hrs, an SMM unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) observed intense shelling targeting an intersection of the H15 highway 3.5km south-west of Marinka. The UAV spotted four 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm self-propelled howitzers 9km south-west of the town at 15:30hrs.

The SMM made several attempts between 10:45 and 12:11hrs to contact high-ranking “DPR” personnel – including the “DPR” “prime minister”, “parliamentary speaker”, “minister of defence” and “chief of the general staff” – in order to facilitate a cessation to the fighting around Marinka. Either they were unavailable or did not wish to speak to the SMM.

At 15:00hrs the SMM received a letter from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, saying Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons would be placed on the contact line in order to deal with the “real threat” posed by the fighting in Marinka, which they said had started at 06:00hrs that morning. Ukrainian officials later publicly acknowledged that the weapons had been used, saying their use was necessary in thwarting a “DPR” attack.

The Representative of the Russian Federation Armed Forces to the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination told the SMM at 15:00hrs that a ceasefire around Marinka would take effect at 17:00hrs. He told the SMM at 21:00hrs that the situation around Marinka was currently calm. At around 19:00hrs a representative of the Anti-Terrorist Operation command in Kramatorsk and the “DPR” “ministry of defence” confirmed to the SMM that Marinka was under government control.

The SMM will follow up on reports of civilian and military casualties in Marinka.

OSCE

Note that the "T-72s" mentioned in the report was shown to be T-72B1 or later in videos from Marinka. Also note that the SMM only heard outgoing and no incoming artillery in Donetsk. Though the SMM tried, not a single "office" within "DPR" wanted to answer the phone. The offensive was clearly a failure, so hopefully they won't try anything again soon.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Nonsense, there has been retaliatory shelling of the airport area, but reading tweets from the local population as well as the daily reports from the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), it's clear that it's mostly outgoing shelling from Donetsk (and from populated areas). The "separatists" are constantly shelling government-held cities and villages. Today Ukrainian positions in Shyrokyne, Lebedinske, Artemivsk, Svitlodarsk, Luhanske (not to be confused with Luhansk, both Luhanske and Svitlodarsk are located close to Debaltseve), Dzerzhynsk and Avdiivka (where civilian casualties and severed gas pipes have been reported) have been shelled.

On one hand you say it's nonsense, on the other hand you say there's been shelling of rebel positions. That there has been shelling of government positions there is no denying that. But could you be more consistent?

And that report you posted had this line:

Between 04:30 and 05:00hrs, the SMM – positioned in Donetsk city-centre – heard several salvos of outgoing MLRS rockets and approximately 100 incoming heavy-artillery rounds.

So what on earth are you talking about when you said this:

Note that the "T-72s" mentioned in the report was shown to be T-72B1 or later in videos from Marinka. Also note that the SMM only heard outgoing and no incoming artillery in Donetsk. Though the SMM tried, not a single "office" within "DPR" wanted to answer the phone. The offensive was clearly a failure, so hopefully they won't try anything again soon.

[Mange]

Nonsense, there has been retaliatory shelling of the airport area, but reading tweets from the local population as well as the daily reports from the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), it's clear that it's mostly outgoing shelling from Donetsk (and from populated areas). The "separatists" are constantly shelling government-held cities and villages. Today Ukrainian positions in Shyrokyne, Lebedinske, Artemivsk, Svitlodarsk, Luhanske (not to be confused with Luhansk, both Luhanske and Svitlodarsk are located close to Debaltseve), Dzerzhynsk and Avdiivka (where civilian casualties and severed gas pipes have been reported) have been shelled.

On one hand you say it's nonsense, on the other hand you say there's been shelling of rebel positions. That there has been shelling of government positions there is no denying that. But could you be more consistent?

I am consistent, but I forgot to include an earlier post: In that post, you wrote: "They have been shelling Donetsk for months. I guess the separatists got tired of it." And there has been return fire, but there is little evidence that there are instances of unprovoked or indiscriminatory shelling of populated areas.

And that report you posted had this line:

Between 04:30 and 05:00hrs, the SMM – positioned in Donetsk city-centre – heard several salvos of outgoing MLRS rockets and approximately 100 incoming heavy-artillery rounds.

So what on earth are you talking about when you said this:

Note that the "T-72s" mentioned in the report was shown to be T-72B1 or later in videos from Marinka. Also note that the SMM only heard outgoing and no incoming artillery in Donetsk. Though the SMM tried, not a single "office" within "DPR" wanted to answer the phone. The offensive was clearly a failure, so hopefully they won't try anything again soon.

My apologies, I actually missed that. In any case, it doesn't support the "DPR" or the Russian narrative. (On a side note, I just read Sputnik News and it's really an upside-down world, referring to an offensive by Kiev, when the OSCE report includes a clear timeline and sequence of events: Sputnik News

[cosmicalstorm]

I've heard some mentions of Russian military service now including work in defense-industry related fields. Is this something new or threatening somehow?

[Simon_Jester]

I might be missing something, but...

...How would it be threatening? It means that getting drafted can result in you being sent to make bullets instead of being sent to fire them. Either this is their attempt to get around conscientious objector status (very unlikely in my opinion), or they're having problems keeping defense plants staffed, or some third thing I haven't thought of.

[Lord Revan]

with the russian economy being what it is, I suspect it's just that they're having problems getting enough people to staff the defense industry plants (since workers tend to want to be paid) and this is their attempt at solving that issue.

Until I see something more concreate I'm not consider this much of a threat.