Upcoming Russian-Ukraine war

[K. A. Pital]

IS engineer in rocket production earns below 400 dollars. If I were in their place, I would be concerned about the brain drain. Considering that everything from Superjet and Proton to the vaunted Su-34 and Bulava rocket keeps falling out of the sky, it is clear they have a massive massive problem even with modernizing Soviet technology. New tech is an even greater challenge for the regime of incompetent bloody plutocrats that is ruling Russia.

[Lord Revan]

IS engineer in rocket production earns below 400 dollars. If I were in their place, I would be concerned about the brain drain. Considering that everything from Superjet and Proton to the vaunted Su-34 and Bulava rocket keeps falling out of the sky, it is clear they have a massive massive problem even with modernizing Soviet technology. New tech is an even greater challenge for the regime of incompetent bloody plutocrats that is ruling Russia.

It's certain in the Soviet/Russian leadership's character to not correctly identify the problem if it's their fault and so try "fixes" that either don't really work or do more harm then good.

[Simon_Jester]

If anything, this news is a symptom of chronic problems within Russia that might make it harder for them to successfully use force outside their borders. As Stas notes, a lot of their high-end equipment just doesn't work like it 'should,' and their domestic economy is not in good shape. I doubt their education and technical establishment has flourished under Putin either.

The cumulative effect is that while they still have the raw muscle to be dangerous, anyone in the Russian leadership class who is aware of these problems and not delusional will hesitate to risk that muscle in a situation where advanced weapons or precision are called for. That's not going to matter if they're invading the Ukraine, which has a number of the same problems and a corrupt government of its own... but it would matter if they were to, say, launch a conventional attack against Finland, Sweden, or Poland.

[Lord Revan]

If anything, this news is a symptom of chronic problems within Russia that might make it harder for them to successfully use force outside their borders. As Stas notes, a lot of their high-end equipment just doesn't work like it 'should,' and their domestic economy is not in good shape. I doubt their education and technical establishment has flourished under Putin either.

The cumulative effect is that while they still have the raw muscle to be dangerous, anyone in the Russian leadership class who is aware of these problems and not delusional will hesitate to risk that muscle in a situation where advanced weapons or precision are called for. That's not going to matter if they're invading the Ukraine, which has a number of the same problems and a corrupt government of its own... but it would matter if they were to, say, launch a conventional attack against Finland, Sweden, or Poland.

tbh it would be very hard for them to launch attacks against Sweden and possibly Poland (depending how Belarus would feel about the Russian sending troops thru there) as those countries don't really share borders with Russia (yes I know technically part of Russia does share a border with Poland), without Invading Finland or the Baltic states first.

That said Estonia at the very least is a NATO member meaning an invasion there would bring USA into the conflict and Finland is an EU member with strong ties to Norway and Sweden so invading there will probably escalate things too.

My fear is when Putin eventually retires, that his successor will be dumb enough to risk world war 3 in effort to gain back the prestige the Soviet Union had at the height of the cold war, mainly cause if they're that dumb they might also be dumb enough to use nukes and I'd prefer to die of natural causes instead of nuclear war.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

If anything, this news is a symptom of chronic problems within Russia that might make it harder for them to successfully use force outside their borders. As Stas notes, a lot of their high-end equipment just doesn't work like it 'should,' and their domestic economy is not in good shape. I doubt their education and technical establishment has flourished under Putin either.

The cumulative effect is that while they still have the raw muscle to be dangerous, anyone in the Russian leadership class who is aware of these problems and not delusional will hesitate to risk that muscle in a situation where advanced weapons or precision are called for. That's not going to matter if they're invading the Ukraine, which has a number of the same problems and a corrupt government of its own... but it would matter if they were to, say, launch a conventional attack against Finland, Sweden, or Poland.

I don't think you can blame Putin for a lot of things, though you could still blame a lot of it on him. The 90s was really a lost decade for Russia, never mind the 97/98 crisis that really saw Russia on its knees. Russia only started getting back on its feet in the mid-2000s. A lot of the more recent reform of the industry started only kicking into high gear later that decade.

And quite frankly, yes, I really doubt there's a war, but there are plenty of hawks and military industrialists who wouldn't mind one.

My fear is when Putin eventually retires, that his successor will be dumb enough to risk world war 3 in effort to gain back the prestige the Soviet Union had at the height of the cold war, mainly cause if they're that dumb they might also be dumb enough to use nukes and I'd prefer to die of natural causes instead of nuclear war.

The problem with all the fear mongering that is going on now, is that they have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.

[Simon_Jester]

tbh it would be very hard for them to launch attacks against Sweden and possibly Poland (depending how Belarus would feel about the Russian sending troops thru there) as those countries don't really share borders with Russia (yes I know technically part of Russia does share a border with Poland), without Invading Finland or the Baltic states first.

Yes, but I think you get my basic point- that the state of the Russian technological infrastructure is steadily undermining their ability to wage modern war, as opposed to something like the Iran-Iraq War which was essentially World War One refought with automatic rifles and occasional sporadic tank and fighter-bomber attacks.

My fear is when Putin eventually retires, that his successor will be dumb enough to risk world war 3 in effort to gain back the prestige the Soviet Union had at the height of the cold war, mainly cause if they're that dumb they might also be dumb enough to use nukes and I'd prefer to die of natural causes instead of nuclear war.

Not likely. Anyone smart enough to take power in a snake pit like modern Russia is going to be smart enough to know his limits in respects like that.

I don't think you can blame Putin for a lot of things, though you could still blame a lot of it on him. The 90s was really a lost decade for Russia, never mind the 97/98 crisis that really saw Russia on its knees. Russia only started getting back on its feet in the mid-2000s. A lot of the more recent reform of the industry started only kicking into high gear later that decade.

I don't blame Putin, but my point is that the industry has not flourished during his rule. I'm not saying it's his fault, it could be gremlins or whatever, but he's running the country, has been for about fifteen years, and Russia's ability to deploy modern weapons is still, essentially, exactly what it would have been in 1990 or 1995 had the Soviet Union never fallen.

It doesn't matter whose fault that is, for purposes of my thesis here- it just matters that it is.

My fear is when Putin eventually retires, that his successor will be dumb enough to risk world war 3 in effort to gain back the prestige the Soviet Union had at the height of the cold war, mainly cause if they're that dumb they might also be dumb enough to use nukes and I'd prefer to die of natural causes instead of nuclear war.

The problem with all the fear mongering that is going on now, is that they have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.

Yes. If we all go expecting Russian missile launches any minute now, sunlight on clouds or something is likely to be mistaken for a missile launch, at which point Herman Kahn's "nuclear Camlyn" is likely to take place.

[This is inspired by a battle in Arthurian legend where both armies drew up into a tense standoff, neither side wanting to start a battle. Then one knight on one side drew his sword to attack a snake that had bitten him- and both sides went into full-on battle mode before their commanders could stop them. By the time the dying was over, only one soldier on either side was left alive...]

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I don't blame Putin, but my point is that the industry has not flourished during his rule. I'm not saying it's his fault, it could be gremlins or whatever, but he's running the country, has been for about fifteen years, and Russia's ability to deploy modern weapons is still, essentially, exactly what it would have been in 1990 or 1995 had the Soviet Union never fallen.

It doesn't matter whose fault that is, for purposes of my thesis here- it just matters that it is.

Ideally frankly, the Soviet Union should have slowly opened its economy to the world and slowly privatised industry. Because of the conditions unleashed by that drunkard Yeltsin, the entire corrupt oligarchy/robber baron aristocracy is nearly impossible to dislodge now. Granted Putin should have taken them on much harder (not like the West would see the difference, see Khodorkovsky) and implemented laws to curtail their power, while funneling more cash to modernise industries and the list would really go on.

Yes. If we all go expecting Russian missile launches any minute now, sunlight on clouds or something is likely to be mistaken for a missile launch, at which point Herman Kahn's "nuclear Camlyn" is likely to take place.

[This is inspired by a battle in Arthurian legend where both armies drew up into a tense standoff, neither side wanting to start a battle. Then one knight on one side drew his sword to attack a snake that had bitten him- and both sides went into full-on battle mode before their commanders could stop them. By the time the dying was over, only one soldier on either side was left alive...]

PRay tell that doesn't happens. But with all the frothing hypocrisy on both sides, and the fact that no one wants to make the same kind of deal that solved the Cuban missile crisis, I think things could very well happen.

[Thanas]

Not likely. Anyone smart enough to take power in a snake pit like modern Russia is going to be smart enough to know his limits in respects like that.

This flies in the face of history.
"Anybody smart enough to take power in a snake pit like Persia Athens Rome Medieval Europe Weimar Germany is going to be smart enough to know his limits". That is true for the majority of cases, but the exception does always exist.

[Simon_Jester]

Not likely. Anyone smart enough to take power in a snake pit like modern Russia is going to be smart enough to know his limits in respects like that.

This flies in the face of history.
"Anybody smart enough to take power in a snake pit like Persia Athens Rome Medieval Europe Weimar Germany is going to be smart enough to know his limits". That is true for the majority of cases, but the exception does always exist.

To be fair there are exceptions to the general principle, people who led their nation up against some overwhelming buzzsaw of stronger opposition.

But to predict that the next leader of Russia will not be such a person is still going with the most probable outcome. It's like predicting that it will be warm in April; that doesn't "fly in the face of history" just because occasionally April is cool instead of warm.