Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

[Crown]

The IMF VETOED a €400 million cut to military spending earlier in the year and want to go for the pensions (source and in German). This is a neo-libralism agenda seeking to fuck over a populous, not sound economic decision making.

You are not answering the question, I note. How was Tsipras plan going to improve business?

Besides, Pensions and VAT are directly implementable by the central government. Trying to collect more revenue from pressed business and charging the notoriously incompetent/corrupt tax collection to come up with it will not result in anything except lost revenue.

So is military spending; so why is it off the table by the IMF?

[Thanas]

The IMF VETOED a €400 million cut to military spending earlier in the year and want to go for the pensions (source and in German). This is a neo-libralism agenda seeking to fuck over a populous, not sound economic decision making.

You are not answering the question, I note. How was Tsipras plan going to improve business?

Besides, Pensions and VAT are directly implementable by the central government. Trying to collect more revenue from pressed business and charging the notoriously incompetent/corrupt tax collection to come up with it will not result in anything except lost revenue.

So is military spending; so why is it off the table by the IMF?

You are still not answering the question, I note. How was Tsipras plan going to improve business?

As to military spending, the IMF rejected the plan because they did not feel it to be feasible to come up with the numbers. After all, it was just one item in the Greek plan and not the largest one either.

[Thanas]

Oh and btw, this is pretty great:

13 June 2015
ATHENS, Greece – A government official says Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has told senior aides to "forget about elections or a referendum," whatever the outcome of the country's talks with creditors.

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/art ... e-question

[Crown]

So is military spending; so why is it off the table by the IMF?

You are still not answering the question, I note. How was Tsipras plan going to improve business?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander; how was the Troika's plan going to improve business Thanas? You will note that they have a track record of zero out of 5 years of actually achieving this, so the law of averages is on their side.

As to military spending, the IMF rejected the plan because they did not feel it to be feasible to come up with the numbers. After all, it was just one item in the Greek plan and not the largest one either.

Source?

Oh and btw, this is pretty great:

13 June 2015
ATHENS, Greece – A government official says Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has told senior aides to "forget about elections or a referendum," whatever the outcome of the country's talks with creditors.

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/art ... e-question

What's your point here? People can't change their planned course of actions when new shit happens? Fuck off.

[Nova Andromeda]

I see a lot of back and forth about if/whether/when Greece should pay. I see very little about the current state of Greek governance. Specifically, has Greece made serious progress in reforming its corruption and tax collection problems? As far as I can tell, Greek public assistance is somewhat off target (i.e., there is probably a slightly better targeting method than pensions), but if anything is too small.

Discussions on boosting business, etc. is a red herring as Greece is probably as fucked as the rest of us without massive social / governance changes. Automation and productivity gains have only helped the rich get richer while making jobs less and less common. While Germany and other advanced economies may fare better for a while due to having highly skilled labor that still cannot be automated, they will face the same problem eventually. Automation will mean the current 'winners' in business won't need the vast majority of the people to continue making obscene profits. Indeed, they will continue doing what they are doing now: getting richer and more powerful while at the same time becoming less and less dependent on workers to actually do the work. Who knows where that leads, but it's certainly a bleak outlook.

[Starglider]

Discussions on boosting business, etc. is a red herring as Greece is probably as fucked as the rest of us without massive social / governance changes.

No, Greece is substantially more fucked than most of the developed countries, and claiming otherwise is doing a disservice to the significant hardship that has been and will be experienced there. Greece's government is hideously inefficient and dysfunctional; Syriza, being both a socialist party and a completely inexperienced party, is actively making this worse.

The temptation (on the part of Germany and the eurocrats) to trap Greece in debt and then use it as a stick to beat them into having a more sensible government is completely understandable; it's the soft-power version of regieme change and nation-building, with the same heady rush of imperialism in action under the cover of supposed moral superiority that the Iraq war had. Unfortunately the results are also comparable; imperial overreach, spiralling cost (against a backdrop of no-bid contracts, bribery and outright looting), increasing poverty, political chaos and the forced changes proving unstable and tending to revert in the long run. To be fair this strategy has been applied to many countries by the IMF and now the ECB; just like military intervention it does work sometimes, but it was pretty obvious that the odds were stacked against a good outcome in Greece's case.

Automation and productivity gains have only helped the rich get richer while making jobs less and less common. While Germany and other advanced economies may fare better for a while due to having highly skilled labor that still cannot be automated, they will face the same problem eventually.

Well sure, and in the long run everyone is dead, but that is really not relevant to the previous and next decade of Greek politics. Greece is hardly on the cutting edge of automation in Europe and the country's economy is actually weighted away from activities that are currently experiencing the most disruption.

[Nova Andromeda]

Discussions on boosting business, etc. is a red herring as Greece is probably as fucked as the rest of us without massive social / governance changes.

Greece's government is hideously inefficient and dysfunctional; Syriza, being both a socialist party and a completely inexperienced party, is actively making this worse.

The temptation (on the part of Germany and the eurocrats) to trap Greece in debt and then use it as a stick to beat them into having a more sensible government is completely understandable; it's the soft-power version of regieme change and nation-building, with the same heady rush of imperialism in action under the cover of supposed moral superiority that the Iraq war had. Unfortunately the results are also comparable; imperial overreach, spiralling cost (against a backdrop of no-bid contracts, bribery and outright looting), increasing poverty, political chaos and the forced changes proving unstable and tending to revert in the long run. To be fair this strategy has been applied to many countries by the IMF and now the ECB; just like military intervention it does work sometimes, but it was pretty obvious that the odds were stacked against a good outcome in Greece's case.

Right, so you agree that governance is the issue not business? That is, Greece's governance is "hideously inefficient and dysfunctional" leading to bad business outcomes. If that is the case it doesn't matter how competitive Greece's businesses are. Do you or Thanas have reliable 'review articles' that cover this and have accurate #'s? It's hard to make heads or tails out of Google results as I can't be sure how accurate any of it is (i.e., I don't know whom to trust).

Automation and productivity gains have only helped the rich get richer while making jobs less and less common. While Germany and other advanced economies may fare better for a while due to having highly skilled labor that still cannot be automated, they will face the same problem eventually.

Well sure, and in the long run everyone is dead, but that is really not relevant to the previous and next decade of Greek politics. Greece is hardly on the cutting edge of automation in Europe and the country's economy is actually weighted away from activities that are currently experiencing the most disruption.

My point is that the working masses are all currently on a downward spiral and while some high tech. jobs may hold out longer the prospects for those not in those jobs gets worse and worse with every passing year. This situation is absolutely relevant now as resources will continue to flow away at a more and more rapid rate from the masses. The masses are the ones experiencing the greatest hardship and it is only going to get worse not better unless something changes (a cycle that will feed on itself I would think). This is especially true for the Greek people.

Well sure, and in the long run everyone is dead ...

Don't be so sure everyone is dead. There is a small, but real chance cryogenics will work. I wouldn't risk it though. Who's to say you won't 'wake up' to a dystopia worse than anything we can possibly imagine. You can guess why, but I'll limit myself to that allusion as per your request.

[Starglider]

Right, so you agree that governance is the issue not business? That is, Greece's governance is "hideously inefficient and dysfunctional" leading to bad business outcomes. If that is the case it doesn't matter how competitive Greece's businesses are.

Governance is the primary issue. Greek businesses are suffering from underinvestment and poor mismanagement, but in the absence of constant heavy-handed government meddling those issues would tend to self-correct in the relatively open market of the eurozone.

Do you or Thanas have reliable 'review articles' that cover this and have accurate #'s? It's hard to make heads or tails out of Google results as I can't be sure how accurate any of it is (i.e., I don't know whom to trust).

I have read a lot of articles on the subject but no I have not been keeping notes, and of course I am not an expert on the subject matter : AFAIK no one else in this thread has a degree in macroeconomics or works at the ECB or IMF either.

My point is that the working masses are all currently on a downward spiral and while some high tech. jobs may hold out longer the prospects for those not in those jobs gets worse and worse with every passing year. This situation is absolutely relevant now as resources will continue to flow away at a more and more rapid rate from the masses. The masses are the ones experiencing the greatest hardship and it is only going to get worse not better unless something changes (a cycle that will feed on itself I would think). This is especially true for the Greek people.

My point is that isn't relevant to Greece-EU negotiations or which party the average Greek is going to vote for. Please don't drag futurist issues into every thread, however important it seems. I have been guilty of this myself in the past but I'm trying to swear off it.

Well sure, and in the long run everyone is dead ...

There is a small, but real chance cryogenics will work.

That's medium term. Long run is the heat death of the universe.

[Nova Andromeda]

Do you or Thanas have reliable 'review articles' that cover this and have accurate #'s? It's hard to make heads or tails out of Google results as I can't be sure how accurate any of it is (i.e., I don't know whom to trust).

I have read a lot of articles on the subject but no I have not been keeping notes, and of course I am not an expert on the subject matter : AFAIK no one else in this thread has a degree in macroeconomics or works at the ECB or IMF either.

Well what sources do you tend to look at? Are there reliable sources for 'facts on the ground' you look at?

My point is that the working masses are all currently on a downward spiral and while some high tech. jobs may hold out longer the prospects for those not in those jobs gets worse and worse with every passing year. This situation is absolutely relevant now as resources will continue to flow away at a more and more rapid rate from the masses. The masses are the ones experiencing the greatest hardship and it is only going to get worse not better unless something changes (a cycle that will feed on itself I would think). This is especially true for the Greek people.

My point is that isn't relevant to Greece-EU negotiations or which party the average Greek is going to vote for.

Why isn't it important to the Greece-EU negotiations? Government policy must come to grips with economic and business realities if it is to work for the average person. If your population is mostly out of work and the economic trends for the foreseeable future mean that it's only going to get worse I would think that situation must be addressed in the negotiations. E.g., if the EU position is that free markets will solve everything and don't tax business and/or the rich more than everyone else then Greece simply has to walk away as that policy will just make things worse year after year. If the EU just wants reasonable reforms like tax enforcement and perhaps less market distorting policies then perhaps Greece can live with that.

Please don't drag futurist issues into every thread, however important it seems. I have been guilty of this myself in the past but I'm trying to swear off it.

I'm not clear on what you are referring to here? The automated economy? That is hear now. It's been here for at least a decade.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

As to military spending, the IMF rejected the plan because they did not feel it to be feasible to come up with the numbers. After all, it was just one item in the Greek plan and not the largest one either.

Isn't there the matter that Greece owes Germany money for those German submarines?

[Thanas]

So is military spending; so why is it off the table by the IMF?

You are still not answering the question, I note. How was Tsipras plan going to improve business?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander; how was the Troika's plan going to improve business Thanas?

Probably not, but it wouldn't put all the problems on business.

You will note that they have a track record of zero out of 5 years of actually achieving this, so the law of averages is on their side.

So what, that makes Tsipras plan automatically better? Have you even fucking looked at it?

As to military spending, the IMF rejected the plan because they did not feel it to be feasible to come up with the numbers. After all, it was just one item in the Greek plan and not the largest one either.

Source?

Well, Greece made their offer on Monday, noting that it was not a finalized offer on their part. They then submitted the finalized offer - and it contained less commitments than were in their initial offer. I posted about it on page 3:

Greece is trying the old "promise one thing in Brussels, do another" thing again:

Link

Officials from the bailout monitors said a submission on Tuesday by Athens of a list of “prior actions” — essentially a calendar of specific measures that will be legislated and implemented — retreated from earlier Greek commitments.

What's your point here? People can't change their planned course of actions when new shit happens? Fuck off.

Read the quote again - whatever the outcome of the talks were. How can one trust such a temper tantrum? And it is not as if this is limited to this event, the whole past six months have been filled with Greece making bold declarations and then walking them back in private or just not doing any of them. Like when they promised full cooperation to the ECB and then this happened:

Tsipras had requested the meeting and had been confrontational in the days preceding it. According to an authoritative account of what took place, he started the negotiations by making it clear he expected urgently needed bailout funds released without giving very much in return.

According to the account, he was disabused of that notion within 10 minutes and the meeting then ran smoothly, except for an episode where the new Greek leader was upbraided by Draghi, who is furious at the way senior EU officials monitoring the terms of the Greek bailout are being treated in Athens.

According to senior officials in Brussels, the Tsipras government has been orchestrating a campaign of intimidation against the eurocrats in Athens, frustrating their work and refusing all access.

Visiting Athens this week, they were confined to a luxury hotel and denied access to government ministries. Their whereabouts were leaked to the media and “aggressive” demonstrations were staged outside the hotel. One of the top officials needed two bodyguards. Draghi was said to have read Tsipras the riot act, while the others demanded cooperation with the creditors.

Merkel was said to have soothed things by telling Tsipras that, when International Monetary Fund officials go to Berlin, they are granted access to everything they need, even when it is a little humiliating.

[Thanas]

As to military spending, the IMF rejected the plan because they did not feel it to be feasible to come up with the numbers. After all, it was just one item in the Greek plan and not the largest one either.

Isn't there the matter that Greece owes Germany money for those German submarines?

No, they have paid for those several years ago. Only the first one was built by Germany too, the others were built in Greece.

[K. A. Pital]

Probably not, but it wouldn't put all the problems on business.

What business? What does Greece produce? What does it export? What is consumed domestically?

http://www.thepressproject.net/article/ ... ergy-costs

"Greece is working", right? Just keep repeating this until the country collapses.

[Thanas]

Probably not, but it wouldn't put all the problems on business.

What business? What does Greece produce? What does it export? What is consumed domestically?

You know full well what I meant, don't fucking pull this stupid stunt unless you really are of the opinion that Greece has no business whatsoever, in which case I am quite frankly astonished you are in favour of protecting them, as it means they are worthless parasites siphoning resources of the working classes of Europe.

[Nova Andromeda]

Probably not, but it wouldn't put all the problems on business.

What business? What does Greece produce? What does it export? What is consumed domestically?

You know full well what I meant, don't fucking pull this stupid stunt unless you really are of the opinion that Greece has no business whatsoever, in which case I am quite frankly astonished you are in favour of protecting them, as it means they are worthless parasites siphoning resources of the working classes of Europe.

I'm curious as to your read of Greek governance. Do you believe, as Starglider does, that Greek governance is still all messed up (i.e., very poor tax collection, no plans/reforms to weed out corruption, etc.)?

What sources do you look at to come to this conclusion (generally)? I've Googled and read some of your links, but I just can't tell who is reliable.

What is your view on the general idea that I outlined to Starglider above? Automation is generally making jobs more and more scare and lower and lower paid. The Greek economy is not in any position to compete with the likes of Germany for high tech. industry. Thus Greece the Greek economy will continue to get worse and worse if the business playing field is leveled with respect the rest of the EU. Note, I'm not proposing solutions. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the actual problem.

[Dalton]

Is Greece fucked? I honestly don't know what this portends.

[Tanasinn]

Greece is already fucked and has been for the entirety of the austerity process.

[Thanas]

Moved to appropriate thread.

[Thanas]

Link: And newer posts.

According to the FT, Greece is planning to impose limits on bank transfers, cash machine withdrawals, cheque cashing, and early access to money stores in fixed-term deposits.

[Thanas]

I'm curious as to your read of Greek governance. Do you believe, as Starglider does, that Greek governance is still all messed up (i.e., very poor tax collection, no plans/reforms to weed out corruption, etc.)?

What sources do you look at to come to this conclusion (generally)? I've Googled and read some of your links, but I just can't tell who is reliable.

If you can't tell who is reliable then I am not sure if anything will be accomplished by me restating all the sources I have used over the last two years, which would be pretty impossible to do anyway.

[Thanas]

Mark those words, people:

In the coming days, what's needed is patience and composure. The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure
The same applies to the payment of wages and pensions--they are also guaranteed.

https://twitter.com/tsipras_eu/status/6 ... 7545893888

[Thanas]

The Guardian is reporting that the Greek state has failed to pay several suppliers.

[Dalton]

Banks closed until 7/6, ATM withdrawals limited

[Simon_Jester]

So, are we looking at the Greek version of Roosevelt's bank holiday, or are we looking at the prelude to the Greek state outright declaring bankruptcy?

[J]

I think it may be a third option, actually. Early in April, the Greek government formed a special committee to investigate the nature of various Greek debt obligations and the conditions under which they were entered into, with the aim of determining which debts were legal or illegal. They recently concluded that all debts are illegal and should thus be classed as odious debts and unilaterally written off. I am not a lawyer, nor do I read Greek, so I, unfortunately, am unable to go into the actual report to make sense of it.

Whatever happens, we're still left with this. Interesting times.