How to get nuclear war in Europe

[Guardsman Bass]

Vox Media has a post with a flow-chart supposedly showing how we could get Total Nuclear War spiraling out of control from a conflict in Estonia. It seems more than a little unlikely to me, but given that we have some folks on the board who are pretty knowledgeable about this kind of stuff, I posted it.

The flow-chart itself is at the link. It's very much Not Safe for Dial-Up, so I won't post it here.

[madd0ct0r]

the first red circle is bollocks. NATO would not dissolve over that, anymore then it has over a dozen brushfires.
Likewsie the 'aircraft collision during manouvers is misconstrued as an attack leading to war' is bollocks. Much worse things have happened and been talked down.

So basically what you are left with are lines where Russia invades / declares war on Nato. Given that Putin is interested in 1) remaining alive, which 2) means staying in power which means 3) bolstering national pride he is only going to pick fights they can win with low cost.

So i would consider the flowchart bollocks. Adding detail to a series of unlikely events does not make them more likely, despite the way our brains think.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The chart is rather limited in scenarios. Because it discounts China's reaction, and second, it assumes that NATO's conventional superiority automatically ensures victory.

Also, I find it dubious that Russia would invade Estonia, and quite frankly, it only serves the fearmongers to fan this bit of nonsense for ulterior motives.

[K. A. Pital]

Usual Western alarmism, not worth much.