Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

[Thanas]

I'm sure it is in the bailout deal, I'm also just as sure the bailout deal is unworkable. They might as well say we'll give you a free lollipop when you flap your arms and fly.

Given that Europe has kept the bailout terms so far in every bailout, that can only mean that you think Greece will lie and break the deal. Why would they siphon money for their economy into their debtor's pockets?

Yes it was, I win!

Look, the Greeks chose to stay in it. It was their free choice. They could exit but they chose not to.

Show your working; or concede.

Show what? That Greek pays 2.6% or that the military budget is way too high for a nation like Greece? For the former, already done so on multiple threads on this board.

EDIT: Checking, it seems that Greece did indeed slash their defence budget to 2.3% in 2014. Still too high, they could take another percentage point of there and save the other from pensions. So 2.6% is still very doable.

Oh my god... Did you look at the payment schedule? This 2.6% blended interest rate that we have agreed for our discussions assumes a steady pay back of all the loans, but that's not reality. The loans immediately due are to the IMF and ECB (which are 6%), and these will not be met. The IMF just admitted as much (again), because the economy is depressed.

Which is why there is this bailout that will cover these loans.

And demanding a country that is on the periphery of South East Europe at the junctions of Asia and Africa and is receiving more migrants across its boarders than Italy now to cut military spending is asinine. And this coming from an obvious lefty who has no love for it!

Why is it asinine? It is not as if they hunt down migrants boats in their submarines, no, that job is left to the police.

Your kidding right? Did you read the leaks that The Guardian were posting on their live feed during the bailout talks?

How about this interview with Varoufakis where he claims;

In April, he is on record saying if there were ever a referendum, it would necessarily be on membership of the eurozone, nothing else. Then he claimed a 'no' vote is only for a better solution. On the 28th, he tweeted he was against capital controls. The next day, he introduced them. The day before the referendum, he claimed there would be a deal possible within 48 hours of it.

The guy is a pathological liar, don't know why anybody would trust his word.

But wait, Varoufakis is a liar isn't he?

Yes.

Well how about Timmy Geithner;

Ooh, Bank bailout lover and tax cheat Geithner. Surely he is a credible witness....

A few days later [i.e., late July 2012], I flew to meet Wolfgang Schäuble for lunch during his vacation at a resort in Sylt, a North Sea island known as Germany’s Martha’s Vineyard. Schäuble was engaging, but I left Sylt feeling more worried than ever.
He told me there were many in Europe who still thought kicking the Greeks out of the eurozone was a plausible — even desirable — strategy.
The idea was that with Greece out, Germany would be more likely to provide the financial support the eurozone needed because the German people would no longer perceive aid to Europe as a bailout for the Greeks. At the same time, a Grexit would be traumatic enough that it would help scare the rest of Europe into giving up more sovereignty to a stronger banking and fiscal union. The argument was that letting Greece burn would make it easier to build a stronger Europe with a more credible firewall.

Right, right, bad Schäuble - even though he is probably right on the issue. That being said, look up to what Tsipras said - he claims that it was never official policy of the German Government. So do you trust Tsipras or Geithner?

From the Guardian liveblog:

In march or april Varoufakis told me Schaeuble said "agree or consensual grexit", "contacted merkel, she said it wasn't her plan"

YOU said "half a trillion Euros", does that, or does that not include the first bailout?

It does, but a) The banks took a 50% haircut and b) we are now on the third bailout and bank exposure is minimal. So the charge of "THIS WILL ALL GO TO BANKS" is pretty nonsensical on its face.

[Thanas]

Holy shit the IMF just told the Eurogroup that they're out;



Debt relief or we walk. WOW.

Note how the IMF is not advocating debt relief for the loans Greece owes to them. Unless they do they will not get what they want.

However, this may just have caused a Grexit as without the IMF onboard Merkel will need to pull a lot of favours to get this through parliament and it is unknown if she has that many.

[Crown]

Holy shit, Washington is outright elbowing Berlin in the face here, re-read that last line in the picture I just posted; "Other options include explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget or deep upfront haircuts."

The German press is gonna have a spaz-meltdown on a 'Transfer Union'!

[Thanas]

Holy shit, Washington is outright elbowing Berlin in the face here, re-read that last line in the picture I just posted; "Other options include explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget or deep upfront haircuts."

The German press is gonna have a spaz-meltdown on a 'Transfer Union'!

Like I said, this is the IMF in favor of Grexit. Good luck to Greece, they will need it.

I can't see the German Parliament approving any sort of transfer union, not without a political union first.

[Crown]

Holy shit, Washington is outright elbowing Berlin in the face here, re-read that last line in the picture I just posted; "Other options include explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget or deep upfront haircuts."

The German press is gonna have a spaz-meltdown on a 'Transfer Union'!

Like I said, this is the IMF in favor of Grexit. Good luck to Greece, they will need it.

I can't see the German Parliament approving any sort of transfer union, not without a political union first.

The IMF is controlled by Washington (and Lagrade has been off reservation for a while now) and it is not in favour of a Grexit. This is Washington embarrassing Berlin because it can.

[Thanas]

Holy shit, Washington is outright elbowing Berlin in the face here, re-read that last line in the picture I just posted; "Other options include explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget or deep upfront haircuts."

The German press is gonna have a spaz-meltdown on a 'Transfer Union'!

Like I said, this is the IMF in favor of Grexit. Good luck to Greece, they will need it.

I can't see the German Parliament approving any sort of transfer union, not without a political union first.

The IMF is controlled by Washington (and Lagrade has been off reservation for a while now) and it is not in favour of a Grexit. This is Washington embarrassing Berlin because it can.

Obama tries very hard to cozy up to Merkel on a number of issues, especially regarding Russia. They need Germany far more than they need Greece, so what would they possibly gain from that?

[Vendetta]

Obama tries very hard to cozy up to Merkel on a number of issues, especially regarding Russia. They need Germany far more than they need Greece, so what would they possibly gain from that?

Because they need the EU stable and not attempting to eat itself more than they need Germany.

[Thanas]

Obama tries very hard to cozy up to Merkel on a number of issues, especially regarding Russia. They need Germany far more than they need Greece, so what would they possibly gain from that?

Because they need the EU stable and not attempting to eat itself more than they need Germany.

So a Grexit will make the EU stable?

[bilateralrope]

Holy shit, Washington is outright elbowing Berlin in the face here, re-read that last line in the picture I just posted; "Other options include explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget or deep upfront haircuts."

The German press is gonna have a spaz-meltdown on a 'Transfer Union'!

Like I said, this is the IMF in favor of Grexit. Good luck to Greece, they will need it.

I can't see the German Parliament approving any sort of transfer union, not without a political union first.

The IMF is controlled by Washington (and Lagrade has been off reservation for a while now) and it is not in favour of a Grexit. This is Washington embarrassing Berlin because it can.

I don't think it matters if the IMF wants a Grexit or not. If, like Vendetta says, the IMF own rules prevent them going along with the current eurozone offer, then they can't go along with it even if they want to.

[Crown]

I'm sure it is in the bailout deal, I'm also just as sure the bailout deal is unworkable. They might as well say we'll give you a free lollipop when you flap your arms and fly.

Given that Europe has kept the bailout terms so far in every bailout, that can only mean that you think Greece will lie and break the deal. Why would they siphon money for their economy into their debtor's pockets?

Do you purposefully try to misunderstand me? It's rather impressive. Let me repeat myself; "I'm sure it is in the bailout deal, I'm also just as sure the bailout deal is unworkable."

Yes it was, I win!

Look, the Greeks chose to stay in it. It was their free choice. They could exit but they chose not to.

There is no 'choice' when it's made under duress. It was get fucked by us in side the Eurozone or - and this is the genius part - have a 'timeout' inside the Eurozone while you issue IOUs.

Show your working; or concede.

Show what? That Greek pays 2.6% or that the military budget is way too high for a nation like Greece? For the former, already done so on multiple threads on this board.

EDIT: Checking, it seems that Greece did indeed slash their defence budget to 2.3% in 2014. Still too high, they could take another percentage point of there and save the other from pensions. So 2.6% is still very doable.

No, I'm asking you to show how Greece can service the debt burden (which is going to increase to 200% of it's GDP) when it is at 2.6% interest rate that we have agreed. Go ahead, I've got time.

Oh my god... Did you look at the payment schedule? This 2.6% blended interest rate that we have agreed for our discussions assumes a steady pay back of all the loans, but that's not reality. The loans immediately due are to the IMF and ECB (which are 6%), and these will not be met. The IMF just admitted as much (again), because the economy is depressed.

Which is why there is this bailout that will cover these loans.

Stop. Fucking. Bailing out a depressed economy. Move the God-damned ECB loans to the EFSF and restructure it. Obviously the exception being the IMF loans which need to be repaid.

And demanding a country that is on the periphery of South East Europe at the junctions of Asia and Africa and is receiving more migrants across its boarders than Italy now to cut military spending is asinine. And this coming from an obvious lefty who has no love for it!

Why is it asinine? It is not as if they hunt down migrants boats in their submarines, no, that job is left to the police.

You're right, we shouldn't send naval patrols out to oh-I-don't-know save people from drowning or anything. Those rats that don't drown and make it to land, we'll let a police force which is used to dealing with problems like 'where's my car' and 'drunk tourists having sex on beach' deal with it. Stellar!

Your kidding right? Did you read the leaks that The Guardian were posting on their live feed during the bailout talks?

How about this interview with Varoufakis where he claims;

In April, he is on record saying if there were ever a referendum, it would necessarily be on membership of the eurozone, nothing else. Then he claimed a 'no' vote is only for a better solution. On the 28th, he tweeted he was against capital controls. The next day, he introduced them. The day before the referendum, he claimed there would be a deal possible within 48 hours of it.

The guy is a pathological liar, don't know why anybody would trust his word.

He's also on record as saying Greece joining the Euro would be the biggest economic folly ever imagined, and being a whistle blower on the Goldman-Sachs credit swaps.

Well how about Timmy Geithner;

Ooh, Bank bailout lover and tax cheat Geithner. Surely he is a credible witness....

Yep that's the one.

Right, right, bad Schäuble - even though he is probably right on the issue.

Hey, I'm not arguing the merits of it, I'm pointing out that this was 'the plan'. QED.

That being said, look up to what Tsipras said - he claims that it was never official policy of the German Government. So do you trust Tsipras or Geithner?

Is this happening? Am I living in a parallel world where that was exactly the official policy of her Government on Sunday night when it was put in front of the Eurogroup without prior consultation which lead to French and Italian finance ministers protesting at it? Oh my god! Thanas! This is a miracle, we're communicating through dimensions via the magic of the internet! What colour is the sky on your parallel world?

YOU said "half a trillion Euros", does that, or does that not include the first bailout?

It does, but a) The banks took a 50% haircut and b) we are now on the third bailout and bank exposure is minimal. So the charge of "THIS WILL ALL GO TO BANKS" is pretty nonsensical on its face.

I didn't say that, I said "We know where the money went".

[Crown]

The IMF is controlled by Washington (and Lagrade has been off reservation for a while now) and it is not in favour of a Grexit. This is Washington embarrassing Berlin because it can.

I don't think it matters if the IMF wants a Grexit or not. If, like Vendetta says, the IMF own rules prevent them going along with the current eurozone offer, then they can't go along with it even if they want to.

The IMF went along with the first Greek bailout which were in clear violation of their rules. Internal memo's leaked by the WSJ in 2013 relating to the 2011 bailout all said so. It can and will do something like this if Washington wants it to, it doesn't in this case.

[Vendetta]

Obama tries very hard to cozy up to Merkel on a number of issues, especially regarding Russia. They need Germany far more than they need Greece, so what would they possibly gain from that?

Because they need the EU stable and not attempting to eat itself more than they need Germany.

So a Grexit will make the EU stable?

Maybe not, but massive debt relief will. Because it might actually work.

The current eurozone offer does not work. It will inevitably lead to Greek debt getting worse not better and the crisis in Europe deepening as ever more money is poured down a black hole for no damn reason other than that the German politicians don't want to admit that they fucked up when they bailed out bad investors and don't want to take the hit for that fuckup. So they keep fucking up even harder.

The eurozone is fighting tooth and nail to have its demands registered that austerity works, up is down, and war is peace. But that doesn't make it actually so, this bailout will not work, Greece's debt to GDP ratio will get worse, the debt will not be repaid anyway, and this will simply happen again in another couple of years, except even worse.

[Crown]

Maybe not, but massive debt relief will. Because it might actually work.

The current eurozone offer does not work. It will inevitably lead to Greek debt getting worse not better and the crisis in Europe deepening as ever more money is poured down a black hole for no damn reason other than that the German politicians don't want to admit that they fucked up when they bailed out bad investors and don't want to take the hit for that fuckup. So they keep fucking up even harder.

The eurozone is fighting tooth and nail to have its demands registered that austerity works, up is down, and war is peace. But that doesn't make it actually so, this bailout will not work, Greece's debt to GDP ratio will get worse, the debt will not be repaid anyway, and this will simply happen again in another couple of years, except even worse.

By the way, we should all remind ourselves this 'crisis' started when Greece announced that it's debt to GDP ratio was 120% which lead to the Central/Norther European economies tut-tutting and wagging their finger at Greece ... GOOD JOB!

[Crown]

Obama tries very hard to cozy up to Merkel on a number of issues, especially regarding Russia. They need Germany far more than they need Greece, so what would they possibly gain from that?

Because they need the EU stable and not attempting to eat itself more than they need Germany.

You're both wrong;



I'm gonna feel dirty quoting this vile piece of misanthrope scum (although he ripped that off Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston) but;

America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.

[Thanas]

I'm sure it is in the bailout deal, I'm also just as sure the bailout deal is unworkable. They might as well say we'll give you a free lollipop when you flap your arms and fly.

Given that Europe has kept the bailout terms so far in every bailout, that can only mean that you think Greece will lie and break the deal. Why would they siphon money for their economy into their debtor's pockets?

Do you purposefully try to misunderstand me? It's rather impressive. Let me repeat myself; "I'm sure it is in the bailout deal, I'm also just as sure the bailout deal is unworkable."

Even if it is unworkable then the percentage of stimuli would still not change. There is no way for people to ignore that fixed percentage. The only spanner here would be if the Greeks assets are worth less than what the Greeks claim they are.

There is no 'choice' when it's made under duress. It was get fucked by us in side the Eurozone or - and this is the genius part - have a 'timeout' inside the Eurozone while you issue IOUs.

A choice far better than one offered to debtors around the world, and completely democratically legitimized too.

No, I'm asking you to show how Greece can service the debt burden (which is going to increase to 200% of it's GDP) when it is at 2.6% interest rate that we have agreed. Go ahead, I've got time.

No, debt service is at 2.6% of GDP. That has been posted multiple times before.

Stop. Fucking. Bailing out a depressed economy. Move the God-damned ECB loans to the EFSF and restructure it. Obviously the exception being the IMF loans which need to be repaid.

Three guesses as to what will happen, genius.

You're right, we shouldn't send naval patrols out to oh-I-don't-know save people from drowning or anything. Those rats that don't drown and make it to land, we'll let a police force which is used to dealing with problems like 'where's my car' and 'drunk tourists having sex on beach' deal with it. Stellar!

Ever heard of the coast guard or the EU force currently rescuing them? And in any case, one can easily set aside financing for that under a common EU mission as well.

He's also on record as saying Greece joining the Euro would be the biggest economic folly ever imagined, and being a whistle blower on the Goldman-Sachs credit swaps.

And on record for trashing the economy himself, stellar record.

Is this happening? Am I living in a parallel world where that was exactly the official policy of her Government on Sunday night when it was put in front of the Eurogroup without prior consultation which lead to French and Italian finance ministers protesting at it?

Those are different things. One is the Schauble plan: Allow Greece to leave if they desire in return for debt relief and humanitarian aid, or let them stay in in return for reforms. That is not "kick them out and make them suffer to create new Europe" as Geithner claims. I know it is hard for you but try and think, man. As it stands, Tsipras denies what Geithner claims to be the case.

It does, but a) The banks took a 50% haircut and b) we are now on the third bailout and bank exposure is minimal. So the charge of "THIS WILL ALL GO TO BANKS" is pretty nonsensical on its face.

I didn't say that, I said "We know where the money went".

So what are you actually saying? I mean, you are talking about events that happened several years ago and Banks are no longer involved here.

By the way, we should all remind ourselves this 'crisis' started when Greece announced that it's debt to GDP ratio was 120% which lead to the Central/Norther European economies tut-tutting and wagging their finger at Greece ... GOOD JOB!

Yes, good job Greece, failing to do something as simple as going after tax cheats even when handed all the evidence and then crashing the primary surplus due to Varoufakis. Good job indeed.

[Crown]

<snip>

Yes, good job Greece, failing to do something as simple as going after tax cheats even when handed all the evidence and then crashing the primary surplus due to Varoufakis. Good job indeed.

I'm going to be so I'll reply to the rest (if it even matters) tomorrow, but that last bit; YET AGAIN you FAIL to even ACKNOWLEDGE that the wrong medicine was administered to the patient. Unbelievable.

[J]

May as well post another relevant Clarke & Dawe video


"I understand you're an economist"
"I am an economist, yes indeed"
"Do you understand the Euro?"
"No, I'm an economist, now you want religious questions Bryan you're going to have to get someone appropriately qualified"

---

The math is what it is. The money was never there to begin with; this fact has finally been recognized, it shall end it default one way or another. 2+2 shall not equal anything but 4. You can pontificate all you want and wave your metaphorical wieners around like the EU leaders & politicians, but it will not change the end result. The timing, perhaps, the result, no. That math doesn't care, it just is. The cake is baked, it cannot be unbaked.

Oh, one more thing. Unpayable debts always goes exponential, because, you know, that's what interest is. If it wasn't fixable 5 years ago it's not fixable today, and will not be at any time in the future. In fact, it gets worse, exponentially.

[BabelHuber]

You're like a whoopy cushion; so easy to make you squeal a funny noise. So when I accused you of being "the type of dumb cunt who would be blaming Cassandra for Troy's destruction and not Paris", you don't seek to disprove my contention that Varoufakis is Cassandra in our scenario, you just start blaming Varoufakis!

Too bad that Varoufakis and Tsipras did poison the relationships to the other EU members with their insane negotiation strategy.

It does change jack shit when you babble about Greek mythology, especially with such a retarded analogy. Varoufakis is no Cassandra, he is an arsonist. He first set the Greek-EU relationship on fire, then he complained about the heat.

Lets make something clear, I don't give a fuck if Varoufakis stood up in the middle of the Eurogroup, whipped his cock out and started dancing the Zorba. It does not change the fact that 1 + 1 = 2, and the Greek debt is unsustainable the way it is loaded right now.

It is sad for you that you don't understand how politics is working. Human relationships play a major part of it, especially in foreign relations. The German/Fench cooperation e.g. works best when the French president and the German chancellor actually like each other. Just look at Helmut Schmidt and Valerie Giscard D'Estaign.

The pure notion that it does not matter how a politician is behaving in front of his colleagues is utter madness.

This is exactly why you ride on this stupid "the Greek debt is unstustainable"-wave. Everybody knows the Greek won't be able to pay back all loans and that they have to be written of sooner or later, at least partly.

But it is not politically feasible to write them off just yet - first the Greek society has to make progress. This includes collecting taxes, fighting corruption, having a working land registry office etc.

What you just wrote was that the poor delicate souls are now punishing Greece more than is necessary just because they didn't like Varoufakis, and alarming enough, you thought this was a GOOD point for your argument. Do you even proof read what you write, or do you just subject us all to your mental diarrhoea without filter?

Nobody is punishing Greece, you idiot. Greece has punished itself by electing Syriza in the first place.

In case you haven't noticed, Syriza took over a Greece with a mild GDP growth in 2014 and drove it into a deep recession.

All of this could have been avoided, it is an unnecessary suffering of the Greek population triggered by the insane actions of Syriza alone.

But of course, for simple minds it is much easier to blame the creditors for everything.

[Terralthra]

If only there were a Greek word for a victory that is actually a defeat and a German word for pleasure at another's misfortune.

[BabelHuber]

[Thanas]

If only there were a Greek word for a victory that is actually a defeat and a German word for pleasure at another's misfortune.

Nobody in Germany is getting any pleasure out of Greece remaining in the Eurozone, nor its exit. It is a lose-lose situation for Germany either way.

<snip>

Yes, good job Greece, failing to do something as simple as going after tax cheats even when handed all the evidence and then crashing the primary surplus due to Varoufakis. Good job indeed.

I'm going to be so I'll reply to the rest (if it even matters) tomorrow, but that last bit; YET AGAIN you FAIL to even ACKNOWLEDGE that the wrong medicine was administered to the patient. Unbelievable.

Did Greece have a primary surplus before Tsipras and Varoufakis crashed it? Yes or no?

[Thanas]

There is also the problem of outright forgiving debts, as state financing and transfers are forbidden by the EU treaty.

[Tribble]

I've heard rumours that the EMU inspectors will be allowed to veto at least some legislation? Is that true?

[Thanas]

I've heard rumours that the EMU inspectors will be allowed to veto at least some legislation? Is that true?

Somewhat. Under the agreement, the legislation that is connected with it needs to be agreed to by the monitors. Other than that, Greece can do as they wish.

[Thanas]

Uodate: Greek protestors have thrown dozens of petrol bombs against Riot police ordered to protect the Parliament.

Anarchist cowards strike again. Maybe they will burn a few bank tellers again tomorrow?