Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by salm »

Simon_Jester wrote:Reread this thread and make a mark on a piece of paper every time someone alludes to the need to 'punish' the Greeks or implies that the Greeks are uniquely corrupt, incompetent, or otherwise inferior and lacking basic virtues.
I don´t see how that would be useful. There are two people in this thread arguing against Greece, Thanas and BabelHuber if I am not mistaken. Even if they use the lazy stereotype (which I haven´t checked because the thread is so long) why would you base your opinoin on such a sample size?
It is certainly true that there are many valid criticisms of Greek government and economic organization. But if we're going to deal with this issue rationally we HAVE to be prepared to set aside prejudices, make an intellectually honest decision about what our goal is, and how to pursue that goal. If we can't do that, there's no point in even trying to think about what to do with regards to Greece. All answers that are based on the assumption of "punish the wicked spendthrift welfare queens!" are doomed to failure, just as the 1980s and 1990s-era 'reforms' of the American welfare system have failed to bring an end to poverty.
I agree that this needs to be done. But I actually do see this a lot. People, newspapers and even politicians say something like "The Greek system xyz is broken and needs to be fixed." Some explicitly add that this doesn´t mean that the Greeks are lazy but that it´s a problem inherent to system xyz.
If you look for assholes balming "everything" on the lazy Greeks you will of course find them but why listen to tabloids and the morons who read them?
The way I see it the critisizm is not so much directed at specific character traits such as lazyness and more at broken and inefficient political and strutural mechanisms.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Crown »

Thanas wrote:You still don't get it, do you? It is a very bad asset grab because no matter what the money will go to Athens, on top of the bailout funds as well. If you claim this as an asset grab, please grab my asssets that way - giving me free money with no interest while only taking collateral worth half - and giving half that collateral back to me as well.
No I get it fine. A percentage of the €50bn is earmarked for 'reinvestment', the rest goes to a debt pay back (which is unsustainable) and recapitalising banks. This is the thing though; once you announce a fire sale then it becomes a buyers market. There's no way whatever valuable assets the Greek state does have left, is going to be sold at value price.

Nomura's chief economist Richard Koo breaks this down, using his experience during the East German fire sale as a backdrop for you;
Mr Koo wrote:Koo had first-hand experience of all this. Here he is:

At the time I was personally interested in a certain manufacturing concern in the city of Dresden, then part of East Germany. I went so far as to visit the West German liquidator at the company headquarters and ask how much it would take to buy the company. At that time he was very confident the operation would fetch a high price, and the price he gave me was far beyond the reach of someone working for a Japanese company.

But several months after returning to Tokyo, I heard the company had been sold for a tiny fraction of the quoted price.

Since the West German government insisted on selling all assets within six months of bringing them to market, prospective buyers adopted the tactic of engaging in negotiations until the deadline loomed and then stepping away from the table. With just days to complete the sale, administrators were forced to dispose of assets at fire-sale prices.

Koo expects similar tactics in Greece. He concludes that "European authorities appear to have forgotten a key lesson of German reunification, which is that rash privatizations carried out with the goal of raising as much money as possible tend to end in failure."
So this is where we go from here; beyond this point we're just going to be stating our positions ad infinitum, and I can't be arsed with that bullshit, especially since we're both speculating on an outcome. So, may I suggest that in your reply to this point you either note it and agree/disagree, and then we move on?
Thanas wrote:According to the Greek constitution and Tsipras, the referendum is not and never was binding anway.
Legalese. But again as above we've moved way beyond our point; my point is that Greece was forced into a Sophie's Choice scenario; you disagree. I can't understand that at all as more and more evidence is being brought forward to show suggest that Schäuble was expecting the deal to be rejected, but as since Eurogroup meetings are held entirely behind closed doors by design, with no minutes we can't prove one way or another. So again, disagree with my position? Fine, note it and move on. We're not changing each other's minds.
Thanas wrote:Crown. Baby. Analphabetic one.
You taught me a new word, thanks! :lol:

Also, it's customary in academia to reference your sources, such that we can view the thing in its entirety rather than me having to Google-Fu my way to the complete article.

Original piece from here.
Thanas wrote:<snip img>
Zsolt Darvas wrote:Any level of debt is sustainable if it has a very low interest rate. Japan is a prime example: gross public debt is almost 250 % of GDP, while the average interest rate is 0.9 percent per year. Despite the very high Japanese public debt, there is no talk about its restructuring.
Yeah, but there's also no talk of Japan having to run a primary budget surplus and reduce it's debt to 103% of it GDP in 40 years either so what's his point?
Zsolt Darvas wrote:Loans from euro-area partners to Greece carry super-low interest rates and also have very long maturities. The lending rate from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is a mere 1 basis point over the average borrowing cost of the EFSF, which is around 0.2 percent per year currently. The average maturity of EFSF loans is over 30 years with the last loan expiring in 2054. Moreover, in 2012 the Eurogroup agreed on a deferral of interest payments of Greece on EFSF loans by 10 years, implying zero cash-flow interest cost on EFSF loans during this period. The interest rate charged on bilateral loans from euro-area partners is Euribor plus 50 basis points, which is currently about 0.56 % per year: another very low value (which could be lowered further, as we argued here). Bilateral loans have a long maturity too: they should be gradually repaid between 2020-2041.

<snip>
Not a single thing he stated there can be verified. Don't believe me? Go to ESMs homepage and try it yourself. Or, you can read this Reuters article here which states the following;
Reuters in Feb 2015 wrote:EFSF's long-term loans include those dispersed to Ireland, Portugal and Greece. The Greek loans amount to 141.9bn maturing at different times over a 30-year period from 2022 to 2052, and the interest rate Greece is charged is linked to EFSF's funding costs.

The EFSF does not disclose further details on how that interest rate is calculated, but analysts at Societe Generale have provided an estimate.

"The actual average lending rate from EFSF loans is linked to the borrowing cost of the EFSF/ESM without fees and stands at 1.5% for an average maturity of 32-years," the analysts said in a note.
An interest rate of 0.2% versus 1.5%, is I think you'd agree a not insignificant or trivial disparity! But do you know who does have access to the EFSF rates? Why Greece's creditors of course. Like the IMF, the ECB and the EU Commission. Who all say now, that Greece needs debt relief/restructuring/etc just like every main stream economist has been arguing for years now. What a coincidence!
Thanas wrote:If Greece finally gets their house in order, agrees to the programme, stops acting like children and then actually invests the money they get in their infrastructure and economy, then yes, debt relief or debt restructure might (and should) happen. But they have had five years to show they can reform and still not have managed to do what is the basic necessity of a modern state. The ball is in their court. They are the ones who have to prove that they can be taken seriously.
The "five years" don't mean shit, if the targets they were given were made up in the sky crap.
Thanas wrote:That is with the Navy, right? So why should something that obviously does not work get funded? They don't need that airforce, they don't need those heavy modern ships, they don't need the tanks, they don't need submarines. What they need is a better coast guard, which can be had at a much lower price and cost.
:wtf:

So when I point out that geo-politcal conditions in the region - that have absolutely nothing to do with Greece - is having a major impact on Greece and its ability to effectively police their borders and a rising humanitarian crisis of innocent migrants, your response is to defund the military?

Interesting. (that was sarcasm for "your an idiot")
Thanas wrote:Bullshit. If it was not his economy, how could they else then reversed the reforms and lay-offs?
I'll repeat myself; it's not his economy the results in Brussels put paid to that myth.
Thanas wrote:
Crown wrote:No one believes that Thanas. The ridiculous 'time out' didn't come out of nowhere.
Again, confusing Schauble plan (which is the time-out plan to allow Greece to rebuilt their economy outside the Euro) with whatever Geithner thinks he heard is not helpful or even correct. It is just a lie made up by people who get their jollies of Schäuble being the root cause of all evil, in short the same people who masturbate to this:
[img]<snip%20pointless%20image>[/img]
You've gone off the deep end. We have 2, independent sources years apart now say that Schäuble wanted a Grexit. We have a plan come out of nowhere - literally nowhere - presented in the Eurogroup where a 'temporary Grexit' is put on the table. Your response is; not exactly the same so different! Like that means anything. What every other adult realises is that a 'time out' would do the same thing to Greece as a Grexit, and do the same thing to the Euro; that is expose it as a hard currency peg.
Thanas wrote:
Crown wrote:None of it would have made a difference.
Don't tell me you are that stupid to believe that appearing as people who are trying their best to reform and go after criminals, cleaning up the state etc. would not have made a pretty damn difference in Europe. Just look at what other Europeans have posted in here. Greece is seen around Europe as the country that refuses to reform and go after crooks, as the country that refuses to make an effort. That negative perception sure as hell ties the hand of European leaders and anybody who claims otherwise should take a long trip back to reality.
Look, I'm sorry that you've bought into the neoliberal charlatan agenda hook, line and sinker here Thanas, hell look back to when this all happened in 2009/10 I was even posting that Greece 'needed to reform'. But the truth is that numbers DO NOT LIE.

The first 'bail out' was a bail out for the banks with Greece still left holding the bill (which could be argued fair enough), but then also being tasked with completely batshit crazy payback schedule. The second bailout was to bailout the first bailout and when the third ... well here we are.

Do I think that Greece is the most perfect state of perfect places where unicorns run free and rainbows taste like ice cream? Of course not, but at the same time I don't think that of its creditors either. And when a saga like this goes on for this long it becomes incumbent on any rational adult to look at what is happening and trying to understand it. Doing so leads one to the unmistakeable conclusion; the debts were never payable (and as a concession to you above) in the time set out. It literally does not matter what Greece did and didn't do. They still would have come back for a second bailout for sure, and they still would have come back for the third (most likely).
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by K. A. Pital »

Yeah, but there's also no talk of Japan having to run a primary budget surplus and reduce it's debt to 103% of it GDP in 40 years either so what's his point?
This. I want to highlight this. Japan can devalue currency. It can print currency in endless and fruitless QE rounds. Do whatever it wants. Exist as it does with a constant debt burden and a constantly stagnant technofeudal economy. The choice is fully theirs.

Greece is not in control of its monetary policy. Greece is not in control of its fiscal policy. In fact, it is no longer in control of anything.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33 ... 4954668693

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Greek debt crisis: Germany 'may consider' debt relief

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she is prepared to consider further debt concessions to Greece once its latest economic reforms are worked out.

In a television interview, she said she was open to discussing reduced interest rates and extended maturity dates.

But Mrs Merkel said this would happen only after details of the latest bailout had been agreed, and reiterated that there would be no debt write-off.

Meanwhile France's president called for the creation of a eurozone government.

Reviving an idea originally put forward by former European Commission chief Jacques Delors, Francois Hollande proposed "a specific budget as well as a parliament to ensure democratic control" of the eurozone.

"What threatens us is not an excess of Europe but its insufficiency," Mr Hollande wrote in a French newspaper.

The 19 countries that use the euro are members of an informal body, the Eurogroup, made up of each country's finance minister.

The complex negotiations earlier this month over whether to grant Greece a third bailout exposed vastly different points of view between the various eurozone members.

'Not now, but then'

Germany, which is the largest contributor to Greek rescue funds, has taken a tough line on Greece.

Both Greece and one of its key creditors, the International Monetary Fund, have been arguing for a restructuring of its €320bn debt, saying its current position is "unsustainable".


Bailout deal at a glance

But Mrs Merkel said again on Sunday that "a classic haircut of 30, 40% of debt cannot happen in a currency union".
"Greece has already been given relief. We had a voluntary haircut among the private creditors and we then extended maturities once and reduced interest rates," she said in an interview with ARD TV to be broadcast later on Sunday.

"And we can now talk about such possibilities again... once the first successful review of the programme to be negotiated has been completed, then exactly this question will be discussed - not now, but then," she said.

The €80bn (£57bn; $88bn) bailout deal agreed after some 17 hours of talks between eurozone leaders last week was conditional on Greece imposing tough new reforms of its taxes, pensions and labour market, as well as privatising key state assets.

The conditions - harsher than those proposed by the eurozone in earlier negotiations - angered many in Greece who called it a "humiliation".

Greece had been given "a choice of being executed or capitulating", its former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told the BBC on Saturday.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras himself said it was a deal he did not believe in but was the only way to "avoid disaster for the country" - and managed to get the necessary legislation approved by parliament on Wednesday.

As a result, the European Council has approved a €7bn bridging loan which will enable Greece's banks to open on Monday, and enable Athens to repay debts to the European Central Bank and the IMF due also on Monday.

While Greeks will be able to withdraw €420 a week in one transaction, rather than just €60 a day, the limit will effectively remain the same.
Louka Katseli, head of Greece's banking association, said: "Capital controls and restrictions on withdrawals will remain, in place but we are entering a new stage which we all hope will be one of normality."
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Starglider »

K. A. Pital wrote:A constantly stagnant technofeudal economy. The choice is fully theirs.
When you say it like that it sounds all sexy and cyberpunk.

Seriously though Japan's Gini coefficient is well below the US and Russia, almost exactly level with the UK (and just above fully eurosocialist compliant Italy), so apparently technofeudalism isn't so bad.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by His Divine Shadow »

K. A. Pital wrote:In fact, the current leadership of Germany is pro-big business to an extent which was previously considered impossible, and people here routinely note how Germany becomes USA-lite.
And thus pulling europe down into the dumps with it and ruining what we've spent decades to accomlish.

Also we don't really need a socialist superstate that controls everything, we just need to regularly have some kind of mechanism, some kind of sharp stick that the people can reach up to the top of the room where the 1% floats, and pop them balloons so the resources they contain fall back down again.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by K. A. Pital »

Technofeudalism is many things other than GINI, Starglider.

It is expected for feudal paternalism to produce lower levels of inequality, but it is also expected that hierarchies are rigid and personal time does not exist - the lifetime-employed pretty much belongs to the corporation. Working 12-14 hours a day is not uncommon, as well as mandatory drinking with your boss after work, often till midnight. So there are feudal relations perversely coupled with the worst type of worktime expoloitation seen in the early Industrial Revolution period. The deeply hierarchical nature of the Japanese society is reflected even in their language. The system of honorifics that have to be applied to various persons around you is much worse than even in Chinese and can drive a person whose primary language is egalitarian pretty mad. I think that I know these things better than most, having worked for the Japanese. Not really interested in further pursuing this Japan tangent unless you are; but one important point to this digression is that Greece and Japan can barely be compared.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Simon_Jester »

Sea Skimmer wrote:Because he doesn't think he can negotiate another bailout with the Greeks based on his own principles, because he thinks this whole process is doomed and against German interests.
I confess ignorance of internal German politics. What principles would he be having to go against to negotiate another bailout?
salm wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:Reread this thread and make a mark on a piece of paper every time someone alludes to the need to 'punish' the Greeks or implies that the Greeks are uniquely corrupt, incompetent, or otherwise inferior and lacking basic virtues.
I don´t see how that would be useful. There are two people in this thread arguing against Greece, Thanas and BabelHuber if I am not mistaken. Even if they use the lazy stereotype (which I haven´t checked because the thread is so long) why would you base your opinoin on such a sample size?
Firstly, they're not the only participants in the whole thread, just the ones participating heavily right now. So the sample is more than two.

Another point is that... well. SDN is not normally a hotbed of racism, nationalism, or nationalist stereotypes. If you were, HYPOTHETICALLY, seeing nationalist stereotyping even here, it would suggest that there's a larger problem in places that aren't SDN.
It is certainly true that there are many valid criticisms of Greek government and economic organization. But if we're going to deal with this issue rationally we HAVE to be prepared to set aside prejudices, make an intellectually honest decision about what our goal is, and how to pursue that goal. If we can't do that, there's no point in even trying to think about what to do with regards to Greece. All answers that are based on the assumption of "punish the wicked spendthrift welfare queens!" are doomed to failure, just as the 1980s and 1990s-era 'reforms' of the American welfare system have failed to bring an end to poverty.
I agree that this needs to be done. But I actually do see this a lot. People, newspapers and even politicians say something like "The Greek system xyz is broken and needs to be fixed." Some explicitly add that this doesn´t mean that the Greeks are lazy but that it´s a problem inherent to system xyz.

If you look for assholes balming "everything" on the lazy Greeks you will of course find them but why listen to tabloids and the morons who read them?

The way I see it the critisizm is not so much directed at specific character traits such as lazyness and more at broken and inefficient political and strutural mechanisms.
The problem is that it really doesn't matter whether you accuse the Greeks of personal vices like 'laziness' or collective vices like 'unwilling to make reforms.' On some level there isn't even a practical difference between calling the Greeks 'greedy' (an individual vice) and calling them 'corrupt' (a collective vice).

The problem is, quite simply, that while MAYBE the Greeks' vices exist and MAYBE they created the current crisis, we cannot fix the crisis by removing the vices that created it. If someone shoots themself in the foot with a gun, taking away the gun won't heal the bullet wound. Even if you teach them to be careful with firearms in the future... their foot still has a hole in it.

So suppose I see a man who has shot himself in the foot, and demand that he attend a gun safety class "to prove he won't do it again" before I'm willing to give him medical treatment... Realistically, that is a foolish and wrong way to approach the problem.

Or, worse yet, suppose I demand that he shoot himself in the foot again to prove his sincerity before I give him medical treatment. That's even worse.

Ultimately, in any crisis, what matters is solving the problem. There are short-term and long-term solutions, there are solutions to different categories of problems. It's a very diverse and complicated thing. But it is a stupid waste of time to say "we will not solve the short term problem until we've solved the long term problem." Or to say "do more of what caused the problem in the first place!"

To act in this way... These are not the actions of people who are actually trying to solve the problem. They are the actions of either people who don't know what to do, or who are deliberately trying to exploit the problem for their benefit, and who are not trying to solve it.

So there is the reason for an angry reaction to "lazy Greeks," which is itself shorthand for a broad category of responses to the Greek debt that focus on criticizing Greece rather than trying to eliminate an economic crisis. The reason for the angry reaction is that when you see "lazy Greeks" or any of the things it is shorthand for... that's a good sign that the person advancing the "lazy Greeks" argument either does not understand the situation*, or is actively trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit and doesn't actually care about the Greeks.**
___________

*Like the Latvians who don't understand why Greece can't fix its debt crisis by doing what Latvians have done. Or don't understand that it is necessary for the Greeks to maintain pension payments that seem huge to Latvians because even after all that's happened, the cost of living is still higher in Greece than in Latvia...

**Like people who want the Greeks to concentrate all their economic surplus on paying off the interest on gigantic loans, and maybe on paying back a tiny amount of the principal on those loans. The price of this is that the Greek economy will stagnate for decades, but if you're a foreign creditor that the Greeks owe money to, then a stagnating Greek economy doesn't necessarily bother you.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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Simon_Jester wrote:I confess ignorance of internal German politics. What principles would he be having to go against to negotiate another bailout?
He´s an ordoliberal, so austerity instead of stimulus is his answer to such a problem.
salm wrote:Firstly, they're not the only participants in the whole thread, just the ones participating heavily right now. So the sample is more than two.

Another point is that... well. SDN is not normally a hotbed of racism, nationalism, or nationalist stereotypes. If you were, HYPOTHETICALLY, seeing nationalist stereotyping even here, it would suggest that there's a larger problem in places that aren't SDN.
Well, Im not going to base my opinion on the crisis on a couple of posters on SD.net. Be it two or be it ten, it´s not representative.
The problem is that it really doesn't matter whether you accuse the Greeks of personal vices like 'laziness' or collective vices like 'unwilling to make reforms.' On some level there isn't even a practical difference between calling the Greeks 'greedy' (an individual vice) and calling them 'corrupt' (a collective vice).
"Corrupt" can be an individual vice. It depends on whom you call corrupt. Do you call individuals corrupt or system xyz?
I think it´s even bad to call it a vice. "Vice" implies malice, incompetence or weakness of character wheras i think it´s simply a matter of several systems being broken that we should be interested in repairing.
The problem is, quite simply, that while MAYBE the Greeks' vices exist and MAYBE they created the current crisis, we cannot fix the crisis by removing the vices that created it. If someone shoots themself in the foot with a gun, taking away the gun won't heal the bullet wound. Even if you teach them to be careful with firearms in the future... their foot still has a hole in it.

So suppose I see a man who has shot himself in the foot, and demand that he attend a gun safety class "to prove he won't do it again" before I'm willing to give him medical treatment... Realistically, that is a foolish and wrong way to approach the problem.

Or, worse yet, suppose I demand that he shoot himself in the foot again to prove his sincerity before I give him medical treatment. That's even worse.

Ultimately, in any crisis, what matters is solving the problem. There are short-term and long-term solutions, there are solutions to different categories of problems. It's a very diverse and complicated thing. But it is a stupid waste of time to say "we will not solve the short term problem until we've solved the long term problem." Or to say "do more of what caused the problem in the first place!"

To act in this way... These are not the actions of people who are actually trying to solve the problem. They are the actions of either people who don't know what to do, or who are deliberately trying to exploit the problem for their benefit, and who are not trying to solve it.
Not sure if analogies like this are very useful. I can easily come up with an analogy that makes the other side look reasonable. If you have only a certain amount of spare livers you might want to give these livers to people whom you know won´t booze these livers into oblivion within a couple of months. So you tell the patient to stop drinking and if he manages to do so he can have a liver. Or any other kind of situation where scarce resources are traded for some sort of reform that is assumed to be necssary to prevent these resources from disappearing once changing hands.

In the end there are reasons for solving short term problems first and there are reasons to start solving long term problems before concerning oneself with short term fixes. The latter is the case if you assume that the long term problems would undermine any short term fix anyway rendering the short term fix useless. And the way I understand it this is Schäubles reasoning.
Personally I´m not educated in economics enough to form a good opinion myself so I have to rely on experts. Since there are more experts supporting the Keynesian way of stimulus I´m inclined to believe them but I can see how you´d act the way Schäuble does when the underlying economical theory he is following tells him to implement austerity.
So there is the reason for an angry reaction to "lazy Greeks," which is itself shorthand for a broad category of responses to the Greek debt that focus on criticizing Greece rather than trying to eliminate an economic crisis. The reason for the angry reaction is that when you see "lazy Greeks" or any of the things it is shorthand for... that's a good sign that the person advancing the "lazy Greeks" argument either does not understand the situation*, or is actively trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit and doesn't actually care about the Greeks.**
I don´t think this is true. I think that "lazy" is a term that is used by tabloids to polarize the situation and to get peoples emotions high and buy the tabloid in question. Be it in Germany where people get annoyed because "Them lazy parasites are pissing way my Euros" or in Greece where "Them Nazis are calling me lazy even though I work more hours than them".

It´s a stupid and counterproductive term that does nothing more than distract from the actual discussion and introduces emotion into a place where emotion has no business. And quite frankly in place like sd.net that thinks of itself as educated I´m surprised to see people using arguments worthy only of tabloid rags.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by K. A. Pital »

But even smart people fall for it. Have people seriously looked at the average retirement age or do they blow up hot when they hear Greeks can nominally retire at 50 something? How many people look at average working hours? How many look at the Greek tax collection vs. South European peers? Not many.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by salm »

K. A. Pital wrote:But even smart people fall for it. Have people seriously looked at the average retirement age or do they blow up hot when they hear Greeks can nominally retire at 50 something?
Like mentioned before, personally I don´t see many people here in Germany who blow up or think that Greeks are lazy.
Maybe I live in some sort of bubble.
A graffiti around the corner for example tells me to support oxi in the referendum and on the weekend I went for a bike ride and accidentially came through a pro Greece demonstration.
Concerning the retirement age: If I type "Griechen faul" (Greeks lazy) into Google I get a whole bunch of articles telling me that the retirement age is NOT 50 but actually higher than in Germany, that Greeks work longer hours than everybody else in Europe and refute a couple of myths that are claimed by tabloid rags such as Bild.
Even "Die Welt" which is a tabloid in disguise shows how Greeks are "less lazy" than Germans.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Thanas »

Same here.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Thanas »

Crown wrote:No I get it fine. A percentage of the €50bn is earmarked for 'reinvestment', the rest goes to a debt pay back (which is unsustainable) and recapitalising banks. This is the thing though; once you announce a fire sale then it becomes a buyers market. There's no way whatever valuable assets the Greek state does have left, is going to be sold at value price.
That is a fair point, but then again it has been a buyers market for years. Still, half of something is better than half of nothing.
Not that much of a fair comparison. East Germany was way below the curve, had outdated industries etc. Greece has had billions in EU development money and unless they manage to piss it all away - and even then - it should still have a higher standard in technology and assets than East Germany had.
So this is where we go from here; beyond this point we're just going to be stating our positions ad infinitum, and I can't be arsed with that bullshit, especially since we're both speculating on an outcome. So, may I suggest that in your reply to this point you either note it and agree/disagree, and then we move on?
Agreed.

The "five years" don't mean shit, if the targets they were given were made up in the sky crap.
Bullshit. The targets included things like punishing known tax evasion, they did nothing besides a few high profile sacrificial goats. Figuring out who owns what land - still not completed after the original project was started in the nineties. These are just two examples. The targets for Greece in the administrative and legal areas were to finally act like a modern European state and they failed to do so.

Why should any sane state give money to those who can't even figure out who owns what and who don't have any interest in punishing tax evasions?

:wtf:

So when I point out that geo-politcal conditions in the region - that have absolutely nothing to do with Greece - is having a major impact on Greece and its ability to effectively police their borders and a rising humanitarian crisis of innocent migrants, your response is to defund the military?

Interesting. (that was sarcasm for "your an idiot")
In case you don't know what those weapons systems I listed are - the suggestion is to defund those parts that have no impact on the crisis anyway.
Thanas wrote:Bullshit. If it was not his economy, how could they else then reversed the reforms and lay-offs?
I'll repeat myself; it's not his economy the results in Brussels put paid to that myth.
Right, which is why everybody is so concerned about his implementation. Anybody who does not know that Tsipras did act unilaterally earlier this year has not paid attention or is a liar.
You've gone off the deep end. We have 2, independent sources years apart now say that Schäuble wanted a Grexit.
Two hostile sources from people who do not like Schäuble, vs not a single independent source claiming that. And no obvious evidence either, because Schäuble could have easily pushed for Grexit way earlier when the extent of the Greek lies and manipulations to get into the Euro became known. So if he wanted a Grexit for years, why did he not push for it at a far more convenient time?
We have a plan come out of nowhere - literally nowhere -
That alone should tell you this was not some nefarious plan built for years. You don't know how Schäuble works, do you? If he wants something done, he spends plenty of time leaking the plan to his allies and the press. He did not do so in the months before.
presented in the Eurogroup where a 'temporary Grexit' is put on the table. Your response is; not exactly the same so different! Like that means anything. What every other adult realises is that a 'time out' would do the same thing to Greece as a Grexit, and do the same thing to the Euro; that is expose it as a hard currency peg.
But it is different. And as a negotiation tactic it worked, Tsipras promptly folded when his bluff was called.
Do I think that Greece is the most perfect state of perfect places where unicorns run free and rainbows taste like ice cream? Of course not, but at the same time I don't think that of its creditors either. And when a saga like this goes on for this long it becomes incumbent on any rational adult to look at what is happening and trying to understand it. Doing so leads one to the unmistakeable conclusion; the debts were never payable (and as a concession to you above) in the time set out. It literally does not matter what Greece did and didn't do. They still would have come back for a second bailout for sure, and they still would have come back for the third (most likely).
This was written about in the German press months ago. Back then the echo was "Let's see what they manage for now". Then the idiot brigade came stomping in and destroyed the last bit of good will.

And yes, it matters what Greece did. If they had tried their earnest (which brings me back to things that should be elementary, like figuring out who owns what land) and had appeared as genuinely trying people, they would have gotten much better terms and a much better bailout. But how they appear to European voters is quite different - the nation that lied and cheated, got caught, then had to be dragged to every little reform and then tried to go back on agreements. Do you think Schäuble, Stubb etc. appear hard on Greece because it is their choice? Do consider that if there was a plebiscite today in Europe, Greece would be unceremoniously booted out and people would say "good riddance". You are seriously underestimating the amount of good will the Greek Governments have burned through. You might say "DEBTS UNSUSTAINABLE I don't give a fig about how the people of Europe view it, COLD ECONOMIC REALITY" but you fail to realize that politics trump economics every day and that the voters might just say "let them crash and burn, much better than to throw more of my money after it".


EDIT: Just to pull up one example: This ran as late night comedy. That is how far Tsipras managed to destroy goodwill.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Pinjar »

For the asset sale it seems that someone got the idea that if you can't tax the populace, and it seems that you just can't tax the Greeks, then better to privatize everything they used to get from the government and tax the corporations instead. So it does not really matter if they don't get a good price on the initial sale, the government can just introduce an extraordinary levy at some point in the future. Even if it works it is pretty unpleasant for the Greek people.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Simon_Jester »

salm wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:I confess ignorance of internal German politics. What principles would he be having to go against to negotiate another bailout?
He´s an ordoliberal, so austerity instead of stimulus is his answer to such a problem.
Aaah. Well in that case, good riddance to him. If your answer to hungry old women is "let them eat cat food," you really don't belong in government.
salm wrote:Firstly, they're not the only participants in the whole thread, just the ones participating heavily right now. So the sample is more than two.

Another point is that... well. SDN is not normally a hotbed of racism, nationalism, or nationalist stereotypes. If you were, HYPOTHETICALLY, seeing nationalist stereotyping even here, it would suggest that there's a larger problem in places that aren't SDN.
Well, Im not going to base my opinion on the crisis on a couple of posters on SD.net. Be it two or be it ten, it´s not representative.
My instinctive reaction here is that you may have lost track of what we were talking about here.

Your opinion on the Greek debt crisis is your own and should presumably not be based on what a few SDN posters do.

But if your goal is to understand what this "lazy Greeks" meme is, and why the Greeks resent it...

That is something you might learn a little about by looking at SDN. You can learn more looking in other places- talk to Crown about that. But this thread at least provides a few illustrations of the nature of the problem. Since it's one source I know we both have easy access to, I used it to illustrate the concept.

For a more detailed discussion we could start with what Crown mentions in this post here:

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic. ... 7#p3915597
The problem is that it really doesn't matter whether you accuse the Greeks of personal vices like 'laziness' or collective vices like 'unwilling to make reforms.' On some level there isn't even a practical difference between calling the Greeks 'greedy' (an individual vice) and calling them 'corrupt' (a collective vice).
"Corrupt" can be an individual vice. It depends on whom you call corrupt. Do you call individuals corrupt or system xyz?

I think it´s even bad to call it a vice. "Vice" implies malice, incompetence or weakness of character wheras i think it´s simply a matter of several systems being broken that we should be interested in repairing.
OK, let's back up a moment.

If you think it's bad to talk about the current crisis as a result of "Greek vices," then we're in agreement, because that's my point. All along, I was using "lazy Greeks" as a shorthand for various arguments of the form "the Greeks have vices, and all these problems have to do with those vices." Whereas I (and you, it seems) would prefer to talk in terms of "the Greeks are tangled up in a network of broken systems."

Thing is, when you talk about the network of broken systems, you have to make rather calm, rational decisions about which systems need to be fixed first.

And there are things that are obviously NOT going to do anything to fix the network, because they will if anything make things more broken. For example, austerity measures are likely to do this. So is loaning the Greeks more money while refusing (or being very reluctant) to forgive any of the interest payments on the existing loans.

The problem is that when you try to reason in this way, you arrive at conclusions that are... unpalatable to part of the European electorate. Like "Well, it looks like this Greek government debt will never be paid back, therefore we'll have to forgive it if we don't want Greece to turn into a failed state."

Since European taxpayers and governments spent a lot of money bailing out private banks and buying that Greek government debt, many of them do not want to hear that. So they start looking for a different narrative in which they are not forced to accept an undesirable conclusion. A narrative like "it's not our fault the Greeks did something stupid, they have to fix their stupidity and corruption before we do anything!"

The trouble is... such a narrative is not based on a calm analysis of the network of broken systems that brought us to this crisis in the first place. It will not end the crisis, in which case Greece will continue to devolve into a failed state.
Not sure if analogies like this are very useful. I can easily come up with an analogy that makes the other side look reasonable. If you have only a certain amount of spare livers you might want to give these livers to people whom you know won´t booze these livers into oblivion within a couple of months. So you tell the patient to stop drinking and if he manages to do so he can have a liver. Or any other kind of situation where scarce resources are traded for some sort of reform that is assumed to be necssary to prevent these resources from disappearing once changing hands.
In this case, though, the 'booze' and the 'spare livers' come from the same people. The 'spare liver' is debt forgiveness. If, after forgiving the debts, foreign creditors stop loaning Greece money, Greece will be forced to recover from its metaphorical drinking problem and operate on a balanced budget.

At which point it can actually benefit from fighting corruption and tax evasion. Because instead of having all the money it recovers from tax-dodgers go directly to foreign creditors, it can reinvest that money more efficiently into the Greek economy and produce actual growth instead of producing stagnation and long term debt-slavery.

Moreover, the resource here is not 'scarce' in the sense that there are several deserving recipients for each one of the small number of livers available. Forgiving the Greek debts only "costs" European governments in the sense that they won't get whatever money they WOULD get from asset-stripping Greece. Because those are really the only viable options:
1) Asset-strip Greece
2) Forgive Greek debts.

(1) will make some money in the short run but is not actually to the advantage of Europe as a whole. Because it would greatly damage the European unity project, and because it would ultimately result in Greece either becoming a failed state, or a wildly xenophobic and hostile state. Neither of those outcomes is worth the relatively small sums that can be had by stripping Greece of assets and selling them off to (private) foreign owners.

(2) will 'cost' money, but realistically no one is endangered by doing this. If you transplant a liver to Bob, then Alex who needed that same liver is at risk of dying. That is WHY you are so careful about liver transplants- because by deciding who gets the transplant you decide the Bob will live and Alex will die, or the other way around.

If you forgive Greek debts, that doesn't mean that suddenly the Portuguese economy collapses because Portugal was counting on getting that same lump of debt forgiveness.
In the end there are reasons for solving short term problems first and there are reasons to start solving long term problems before concerning oneself with short term fixes. The latter is the case if you assume that the long term problems would undermine any short term fix anyway rendering the short term fix useless. And the way I understand it this is Schäubles reasoning.

Personally I´m not educated in economics enough to form a good opinion myself so I have to rely on experts. Since there are more experts supporting the Keynesian way of stimulus I´m inclined to believe them but I can see how you´d act the way Schäuble does when the underlying economical theory he is following tells him to implement austerity.
Out of curiosity, how much evidence should it take to convince Schäuble that his underlying theory is not working?
So there is the reason for an angry reaction to "lazy Greeks," which is itself shorthand for a broad category of responses to the Greek debt that focus on criticizing Greece rather than trying to eliminate an economic crisis. The reason for the angry reaction is that when you see "lazy Greeks" or any of the things it is shorthand for... that's a good sign that the person advancing the "lazy Greeks" argument either does not understand the situation*, or is actively trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit and doesn't actually care about the Greeks.**
I don´t think this is true. I think that "lazy" is a term that is used by tabloids to polarize the situation and to get peoples emotions high and buy the tabloid in question. Be it in Germany where people get annoyed because "Them lazy parasites are pissing way my Euros" or in Greece where "Them Nazis are calling me lazy even though I work more hours than them".
But such tabloid behavior is BOTH the actions of someone who does not understand the situation (the tabloid journalists) AND the actions of someone who is trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit (the tabloid publisher).

My point is simply that anyone advancing "lazy Greeks" argument is likely to either:

1) Not understand the situation and think it is simply a matter of Greeks being lazy/corrupt/whatever, and that if the Greeks would just be good and honest then the problem would disappear. OR...

2) Understand the situation, but want to exploit the emotional reactions of others to make money or gain prestige.

For the popular media, both (1) and (2) may be in play. For politicians, business owners, and economists, one would hope that (1) is not in play, but (2) certainly is.
It´s a stupid and counterproductive term that does nothing more than distract from the actual discussion and introduces emotion into a place where emotion has no business. And quite frankly in place like sd.net that thinks of itself as educated I´m surprised to see people using arguments worthy only of tabloid rags.
And I fully agree with you on this- that's my point in the first place. I will note that most people here have been relatively restrained in this matter and have not gone full-on "it's ALL because the Greeks are lazy entitled welfare queens."

But my point is simply that the entire line of reasoning based on "the Greeks need to stop feeling so entitled before this crisis can be solved" is toxic and will ultimately make things much worse. At best it will fail to fix the crisis. At worst it will actively put power into the hands of people trying to profit from the crisis by causing damage to Greece in ways that make money for them.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Thanas »

Simon_Jester wrote:
salm wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:I confess ignorance of internal German politics. What principles would he be having to go against to negotiate another bailout?
He´s an ordoliberal, so austerity instead of stimulus is his answer to such a problem.
Aaah. Well in that case, good riddance to him. If your answer to hungry old women is "let them eat cat food," you really don't belong in government.
Can you for once argue in an intellectual honest way instead of strawmanning Schäuble into oblivion? He has never advocated letting people starve. In fact, one of the first sentences out of his mouth once Tsipras started talking Grexit was how there should be a several billion EUR strong humanitarian aid program to avoid Greek people starving due to the effects of Grexit.

Jeezus. First sentence and you already reveal your deep ignorance about Schäuble as a human being.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Simon_Jester »

1) I already, literally, in those exact words, "confess[ed] ignorance of German domestic politics."

2) I suppose my problem here is that I feel I have sufficient reason to think that 'austerity' is a very nasty way to "solve" nations' debt problems. There are many examples of it not working or having inhumane results.

So perhaps when I hear "so-and-so advocates austerity" in the context of a nation that's had people telling it to cut its welfare system and old age pensions to save money, I jumped to conclusions.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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Simon_Jester wrote:1) I already, literally, in those exact words, "confess[ed] ignorance of German domestic politics."
Then maybe it would be a good thing to not ascribe the most heartless, emotionally charged and negative viewpoint to somebody unless one had at least googled him, right?
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Oh so he's not for austerity then.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by Simon_Jester »

I overreacted to salm's statement that "austerity... is his solution to such a problem."

In mitigation this was in the context of a situation where 'austerity' HAS included cruel, counterproductive, and heartless demands placed not only on Greece but on numerous other indebted nations throughout the world.

But apparently Schäuble is that distinct sort of individual who believes in imposing austerity while simultaneously spending money to mitigate its human costs, and I should have allowed for the fact that such people exist. They confuse me, but they exist.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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Simon_Jester wrote:But apparently Schäuble is that distinct sort of individual who believes in imposing austerity while simultaneously spending money to mitigate its human costs, and I should have allowed for the fact that such people exist. They confuse me, but they exist.
Why does a perfectly logical position confuse you?
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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1) Because it is extremely rare among the pro-austerity people I've actually interacted with or heard speak.

2) Because it seems pointless and circuitous to 'fix' a nation's economic crisis by forcing them to cut their own welfare system, then (presumably) providing the money to keep anyone in the target country from suffering as a result of this indefinitely. Wouldn't that just be equivalent to paying them a permanent subsidy of money? In which case you might as well let them continue their welfare program and pay them the subsidy in some form that would be more directly useful to them... like, in this instance, debt forgiveness.

It's like "stop spending money, here, I'll spend money for you as a charity thing."

It would never have occurred to me that this would be considered a viable way to fix a national economy, and I have no idea what kind of mindset or doctrine would be required to result in someone thinking it's the best solution to the problem.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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Well if austerity makes sense to you, a lot of other things probably make sense as well. Vaccines cause autism, black cats cause bad luck, disease is generated via foul odors, stuff like that must make perfect sense too.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

Post by FTeik »

Simon_Jester wrote:1) Because it is extremely rare among the pro-austerity people I've actually interacted with or heard speak.

2) Because it seems pointless and circuitous to 'fix' a nation's economic crisis by forcing them to cut their own welfare system, then (presumably) providing the money to keep anyone in the target country from suffering as a result of this indefinitely. Wouldn't that just be equivalent to paying them a permanent subsidy of money? In which case you might as well let them continue their welfare program and pay them the subsidy in some form that would be more directly useful to them... like, in this instance, debt forgiveness.

It's like "stop spending money, here, I'll spend money for you as a charity thing."

It would never have occurred to me that this would be considered a viable way to fix a national economy, and I have no idea what kind of mindset or doctrine would be required to result in someone thinking it's the best solution to the problem.
There is a difference between humanitarian aid and (unconditional) debt forgiveness, where you as a creditor will have no guarantee, that the Greek won't continue to do business as usual (which brought them into the mess they are in in the first place). If the first two times give you the impression of the later, you would pull out the thumbscrews, too and demand something more substantial.

Regarding the difference between an ordoliberal (=austerity) and keynesian approach we should also all remember, that economics isn't an exact science. Both have their value, if properly applied, but in the case of Greece "just" throwing money at the problem isn't the solution considering the way their state and society used to (and probably still) works.
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Re: Greek debt crisis [update: 3rd Bailout deal reached]

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His Divine Shadow wrote:Well if austerity makes sense to you, a lot of other things probably make sense as well. Vaccines cause autism, black cats cause bad luck, disease is generated via foul odors, stuff like that must make perfect sense too.
Indeed, and I like to eat children in my spare time too. :roll:
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