The 2016 US Election (Part I)

[Mr Bean]

Here is your 2016 Republican First Fox Debate Lineup!


Image is from Huffpost I just did a bit of cropping and shrinking to make it smaller but still readable for posting here.

Per Fox Debate rules the last five national polls will determine which ten people make it up on stage. Per Huffpost and RealClearPolitics averages that is these ten men. Trump, Bush, Walker, Carson, Huckabee, Cruz, Rubio, Rand Paul, Christie and surprise Kasich.

With Perry, Santorum, Jindal, Fionrina, Graham, Pataki and Gilmore at the kids table where to be frank all of them but Santorum belong. Santorum came in second last go around to see him not make the cut? Well it's not like the same factors are at play and between Cruz and Huckabee it is true Mr Santorum is the religious right's 3rd choice so he's got no options this go around.

Still if this holds true should be a interesting train wreak. Christie is a bully, Rand Paul will stack the audience, Cruz is famously proudly ignorant, Carson is literally insane and Trump shall look amazing up there.

Look for Huckabee to surge after the debate if he manages to remind us he's one of two likeable people on stage who can aw-shucks his way into stealing your kidneys.

[Borgholio]

I'm actually looking forward to watching the GOP debate. It'll be like watching an epic crash at the Indy 500 that just keeps growing and growing.

[Mr Bean]

Confirmation!

1. Donald Trump
2. Jeb Bush
3. Scott Walker
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Ben Carson
6. Ted Cruz
7. Marco Rubio
8. Rand Paul
9. Chris Christie
10. John Kasich

Will be the Fox News Debate 1 Lineup, I wonder would our non-American fellows enjoy a quick American summary of each or is the race still at the point where only the fellow politics junkies are watching?

[Atia]

Damn I was really hoping Perry would make the cut. I wanted to see if Trump would walk up to him and ask to try on his glasses to see if they were real.

[Napoleon the Clown]

The thing that would have made Perry great is everyone else could ask him about that felony he's been indicted for. It would be a dick move, but it would be hilarious.


Not being able to go on Fox and try to out crazy everyone else is a death sentence in the GOP primaries. Perry, Jindal, Fiorina... Whoever else there is. If Trump gets the nomination (somehow) it will be an absolute disaster for the GOP. I saw one statistic (I forget exactly where) that said 30% of polled Republicans said they would not vote for Trump period. He may be the frontrunner right now, but he's also the most hated candidate too. If nothing else, his behavior on the debate could prove to be damn fine entertainment.

[The Romulan Republic]

In other news, polling now has Sanders only six percent behind Clinton in New Hampshire. And he has a higher favourability rating.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-d ... poll-shows

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont continues to tighten the race with Hillary Rodham Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

The WMUR Granite State poll found that 42 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would vote for Mrs. Clinton, while 36 percent said they supported Mr. Sanders. The survey considers that gap to be a statistical tie, but it shows that Mr. Sanders continues to show strength after months of negative publicity about Mrs. Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state.

The poll also found that Mr. Sanders is the most popular Democratic candidate in the state in terms of favorability, with a rating of 59 percent. That tops Mrs. Clinton’s 54 percent.

Other candidates, including Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland, and Jim Webb, the former senator from Virginia, have gained little traction in Democratic polls so far; Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who is still mulling a run, was a distant third in the WMUR poll.

Mrs. Clinton had an eight-point lead over Mr. Sanders in New Hampshire in June, a poll that was also considered a tie, and she led him by double-digits there in the spring.

Despite her significant advantages in fund-raising and name recognition, Mrs. Clinton has also shown signs of weakness against Republican rivals in recent swing state polls.

A bright note for Mrs. Clinton, however, is that only 20 percent of New Hampshire voters said they had definitely made up their mind about a Democratic candidate. Although the former first lady and senator is no longer the clear favorite in the state, she still has time to win over more of its voters.

[bilateralrope]

I wonder would our non-American fellows enjoy a quick American summary of each or is the race still at the point where only the fellow politics junkies are watching?

I'd like a summary of the ones appearing in the debate.

[Mr Bean]

I wonder would our non-American fellows enjoy a quick American summary of each or is the race still at the point where only the fellow politics junkies are watching?

I'd like a summary of the ones appearing in the debate.

Donald Trump
Real Estate Tychoon and media personality with a famous business Empire which has gone bankrupt twice. Trump has specialized in developing property and flipping it for massive gains or massive losses. In the last twenty years he's more famous for selling the idea that Trump=Rich and having a popular TV show. To be blunt he's a businessman/reality TV star running for President and no one's sure if it's because he thinks he will win, because he think it will be funny or he's that isolated that he thinks he can win.

Infamous for: Donating to Democrats, multiple wives, public messy fights he normally loses and being Donald Trump.

Jeb Bush
Former Governor of Florida, one of the offspring of the Bush dynasty Jeb Bush has been in politics of one form or another since the Regan administration first helping his father then running Florida for two terms. Speaks fluent Spanish and concentrates on immigration issues these days he is sad to say the most pro-immigration candidate the Republicans are fielding these days. In some years he'd be a top pick for the Republican to run but he has some significant issues holding him back.

Infamous for: The Terri Schiavo case where he intervened to keep a brain dead woman alive (Against the wishes of her husband but in the wishes of her family it was messy case) via legislative action which the Florida Supreme Court overturned. Also infamous for opposing mass transit rail systems, otherwise he's a average Republican with the small exception of the name BUSH. His campaign goes out of its way to not call him Jeb Bush but only Jeb so great is the Bush family legacy feared.


Scott Walker
Governor of Wisconsin and famous/infamous for having won that job three times in four years thanks to a recall election that failed in 2012 that the Democratic party launched only to decided to run the small known loser against Governor Walker a second time at which point he lost again to the surprise of few. His wins over public and private sector unions have made him famous in the Republican party and he's the current odds on favorite among the Vegas set for who will win the nomination. Has put many Republican budget and policies ideas into practice in Wisconsin and it has not done the state any favors. Not to say it's doing poorly but more liberal Minnesota has been doing much better than conservative Wisconsin and it would be a weakness but again the state is not in recession it's not doing as better as other better off states.

Infamous for: Busting Unions, passing voter ID laws, surviving a recall and winning elections in formerly blue Wisconsin which is drifting more Republican by the day. Many of the other people on state will talk about what they want to do as President, Walker stands almost alone as being able to say what he did. (The other is Chris Christie)

Mike Huckabee
Former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee started life as a preacher before becoming Lt Governor then Governor of Arkansas. A standard Republican Governor in the early 90s to mid 2000's his term was almost ten years long and by all accounts an above average governorship. He's already run in 2008 and is popular among broad sections of the Republican base. Make no mistake Huckabee's aww shucks personality he displayed in 2008 then later as a host of a Fox News show is very popular. Those people that meet Huckabee the in person report strong positive feelings for the former Governor, he comes off a genially nice old man 90% of the time with the 10% being the stickler as Huckabee still refers to him as a preacher of the brimstone and hellfire variety. He's not a shouter but he'll still threaten you with hell all the same.

Infamous for: Anti-same sex and anti-transgender views. Huckabee wears his biases openly and proudly. He's also infamous for his above average use of executive clemency with three high profile examples Wayne Dumond, Maurice Clemmons and Eugene Fields. Of the three Wayne could be considered a genuine misjudgment as Mr Dumond had a good prison record (If wiki is to be believed) and there were questions of racism in his initial rape conviction. But the other two were much more clear cut as Maurice Clemmons had pages of prison disciplinary incidents and displayed no repentance and Eugene Fields was a serial drunk driver who Huckabee granted clemency to only for him to re-offend less than two years later when he got drunk drove the wrong way and rammed a police car.


Ben Carson
Retired doctor and by all reports an excellent surgeon with dozens of academic papers to his name. Ben Carson has no political creditionals but has made many statements that make him popular with the Republican base. Some might say he's only polling well because of his skin color. I'd disagree and say he's only polling well because he's got a talent Roger Ailes and Fox news have been developing for years now as one of the staple of African Americans brought out whenever there is a issue Fox news does not feel safe talking about with all white people on stage. Good enough for a Presidental run? I'd say he's got a better chance that Jesse Jackson ever did as at least he's only crazy rather than self destructive.

Infamous for: There's no such things as war crimes, Obamacare is slavery, Obama wants immigration reform so he can bring in Mexicans to vote for him, Obama will foster anarchy in 2016 so he can stay as President by cancelling the election.

Ted Cruz
Texas Senator Tez Cruz is a Tea Party Republican. Here's all you ever need to know about Ted Cruz, he's a lawyer and a bully. His fellow Republican senators hate him because he's a bully and he's done so much grandstanding his ability to convince his fellow Tea Party members of Congress to stop things has suffered to the point of making him toothless. For a two years he had a great deal of power to frustate Congress from doing anything but no power to get Congress to do anything and he's overplayed his hand. It's time for a Presidential run and a Fox News TV deal after he loses.

Infamous for: Mistreating his staffers, wants to ban Sharia law in the United states, hates social security and does not understand how Ponzi schemes work.



Still to do
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Chris Christie

John Kasich-He's governor of Ohio that's why he's in the debate, he's a non-factor

[Thanas]

Thanks for the summary, Bean.

It is a very strange feeling when one has decided that Jeb Bush is the sanest of the bunch and an even stranger feeling to realize that Mitt Romney would be more liberal than any of the candidates.

[Mr Bean]

Marco Rubio
Florida Senator Marco Rubio is an interesting case. From everything I've read Senator Rubio can be thought of as Jeb Bush's apprentice. Their families have been close, he got his start thanks to Bush allies and Jeb has taken him under his wing. He is some Republicans believe the Latin Barack Obama, the son of Cubans who fled Castro that all important Florida voting block. He is by all accounts a decent senator and not a grand stander like Cruz. He's also co-sponsers of several bills that went nowhere as most Senate bills do these days but he's been first pick with both sides when it comes down to who to put on bipartisan communities. Overall I say Rubio will make an excellent 2020 Republican pick who like Mitt Romney is running four years to early. Give him four years to get some legislative victories under his belt and four more years showing up on Fox news and he will be a strong 2020 contender. Apparently he believes either he has a chance early or more likley that he needs this shot at the Presidency to enhance his standing in the party.

Infamous for: Not much, a few close ties to people who turned out to be corrupt but over all Rubio only has a few questionable statements that make him mild by Republican standards.

Rand Paul
Senator from Kentucky Rand Paul. Son of Ron Paul and inheritor of that legacy, like his father "but" is what defines Senator Paul. Anti-war "but" for all the wars he likes. Unlike he's dad he's much more of a team player (Ron famous never endorsed Romney saying American's would never him while Rand did endorse Romney) unlike his dad he buys much more into Republican talking points about other countries (Ron Paul is the closest thing to a modern American isolationist while Rand believes in preemption in places like Iran) he supports the war on drugs (Something Ron Paul called a doomed idiotic war) and he's much more religious than his father.

Infamous: It's like he's Ron Paul but... There is no one big thing Rand Paul is infamous for. He's infamous compared to what came before. Ron Paul was a senate enigma, a politician who said exactly what he thought most of the time, proudly hung out with known racists and defended it and was capital L in Libertarian. Rand Paul tries to win the same people who liked Rand will still appealing to other Republicans and democrats and it gives him a very uneven reputation. Oh and he had to change state law so he could legally run for President since Kentucky has a hundred plus year old law that says you can't run for two offices at once and he did not want to leave the Senate.

Chris Christie
John Kasich-He's governor of Ohio that's why he's in the debate, he's a non-factor

Edit these all together at the end

[Mr Bean]

Chris Christie
Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie is best known for yelling. Yelling at protestors to be exact as Governor Christie insults, belittles and throws down with hecklers almost every day. It's not to say Christie started out hated, rather he sought out such confrontations, no carefully screened only supporters crowds for Christie, he's happy to wade in and verbally assault anyone who disagrees with him. He's a good talker and a little bit closer to conservative that most of the other candidates on several issues... on others he's blatantly liberal (Banning gay conversion therapy, the first week of Hurricane Sandy, advocating for medical marijuana even if he does not support general decriminalization.) He's not Democratc but on specific issues he's been willing to walk away from party theology.

Infamous for: Corrupt... corruption... corruption. Christie is infamous best for being a politicion looking for ways to reward his doner base and pad his expense accounts and all doing it legally. NJ politicos are infamous for corruption but Governor Christie ability to walk the line of legality has to date been an art form. Minus the lane closure scandals every single other scandal Christie has been involved in (20+) he's been able to skate by without issue. It's why he's doomed, there is pages on pages of things to run campaign ads on.... that and he's looking to lose his own home state in the primaries so unloved is Christie.

John Kasich
Governor John Kasich of Ohio, he's got some crazy tax ideas (Above and beyond Rand Paul) like slapping 50% excise taxes on things to raise revnoue (Booze, cigarettes, anything immoral basically) he's the governor of where the debate will be taking place and..... oh he used to be a Fox News personality and he worked for paragon of successful business practices Leham Brothers. Oh he believes in Climate change and that's about it.


Infamous for: Deciding this was the year to jump in. To be far he won his last race with 66% of the vote after barely winning with 49% of the vote the last go around for the Ohio Governor race but the worst thing you can say about Kasich is that he's not got the well known baggage of everyone else.

About the kids table debate
(Those not in the main debate)

Quick summary

1. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry
Rick Perry was high as a kite on painkillers after back surgery in 2012 and decided to try and run for President. Somehow after such a terrible showing he thought he could do better this time. He's not and he's not going to. George W Bush but dumber is an excellent summary of Rich Perry.

2. Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)
2012 Runner up, I'm shocked he's not in the debate. Man on Dog Santorum is racist, sexist and otherist to a high degree but like Huckabee comes off as very nice some of the time.

3. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Think Rick Perry with a different skin tone, greater intelligence and Ben Carson grasp on reality. This is a man who has by his own admission attempted to cast out demons from someone suffering seizures rather than seek medical attention for that person.

4. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
Infamous as one HP worst CEO's ever which is great since on most Top 20 worst CEO's of all time HP has three former CEO's on the list. Carly Fiorina is an infamous short sighted asshole businesswoman who famous for being able to shift the blame despite the fact she was in charge at the time.

5. Sen. Lindsey Graham (South Carolina)
A southern gentleman with all that implies, average US Senator but out Senators are infamously pathetic.

6. Former New York Gov. George Pataki
Famously mismanaged the 9/11 memorial, famous mismanaged New York in general. Probably should be in prison on corruption charges for actions as Governor but he is simply to rich, old and white to bother with such things.

7. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore
The most responsible republican in the race you may note it's not possible for polls to go into negatives. But if this were the case I suspect Governor Jim Gilmore would be at negative fifteen.

[Bedlam]

A very interesting review, would it be possible to do the equivalent for the Democrats who are likely to be running?

[Mr Bean]

A very interesting review, would it be possible to do the equivalent for the Democrats who are likely to be running?

Sure I'll work on that this evening
In other news something to add to the Rand Paul Infamous section...
The Head of his Superpack is under indictment

Yeah turns out paying for endorsements is illegal and there is a non zero chance it was Rand Paul's idea so stay tuned for an interesting talk tomorrow.

[Napoleon the Clown]

So if evidence arises that Rand Paul initiated, what are the odds we'll have two GOP candidates facing felony indictment? Rick Perry's already facing corruption charges.

I don't expect this to do anything negative to Rand Paul's cult-followers. If anything, they'll be even more adamant that The Man is out to get Randy. As to the sane voters... I can't see this helping Rand Paul's numbers.

[Mr Bean]

Since you asked here's the democratic field in order of polling with a special guest star.

Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State and Senator from New York Hillary Clinton on paper is the best qualified president to be in decades. It's one of the first things thrown around in most bio's of Clinton's because it's very true. She was wife of a president, senator in her own right and served as Secretary of State which is a long term traditional cabinet post of future Presidents since it gives you excellent executive experience dealing with the rest of the world's leaders. It's just a shame that the Republican party has spent the last thirty years now doing their best to smear the Clinton name. To be fair to Secretary Clinton it was her husband who did all those pardons of campaign supporters, who signed lots of disastrous bills and turned a good presidency into a okay one thanks to everything done in his last year and a half in office that bit in the as less than ten years later and continues to do so. Still she's her own woman and we do get Bill Clinton back so there is that.

Infamous for: Everything, fun fact if you type "hillary clinton controversies" you will get multiple news story and pieces and Clinton hating far right authors. BUT if you look a little deeper for lists of contraveries you'll find something interesting... Some right news places like the New York Post put the total number of major Hillary Clinton controversies at fifteen or sixteen. The far right Clinton haters peg it to twenty two controversies. But the more responsible and neutral places (Foreign press like Reuters) peg the number of controversies at eleven which is only one more than New York post and I'd argue that's only because the NYP broke one scandal in three. Those scandals are the first which I mentioned is counted as three and the rest in no order

1. The Clinton Foundation and it's rich donors and bad bookkeeping currently
2. The Clinton Foundation it's donors when she was Secretary of State
3. The Clinton Foundation it's donors when she was a Senator
2. Her complete lack of action as Senator (She never introduced her own legislation only co-sponsored other senators) despite vowing many times to introduce this bill or that
3. Benghazi, a failure of leadership, local intelligence and foresight and she was the boss so she gets the blame.
4. The Clinton marriage (We have no idea what Bill's been up since the Presidency but there are oh so many rumors)
5. Whitewater and the resulting land deals, everyone got jail time except the Clinton family
6. The private non-government email server
7. Sidney Blumenthal as the hidden aide (Clinton was taking potentially classified matters and talking to a non-government private family adviser)
8. The Public Speeches, have some business in the senate or state department? Best hire Bill or Cheslie Clinton for a speech also more accounting issues
9. I'll combine five here and just say "The rest of Bill Clinton's sexual escapades while in office" everything from Troopergate to Lewinsky

Point is Hillary has a lot of pre-made ready to go scandals

Bernie Sanders

Vermont Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders has been a long term Senate fixture. A Jewish Socialist from Vermont is something that to be frank is unique in senate history. The progressive warhorse he's been awhile and fighting for years now. He's authors bills, passed legislation made speeches. his best comparison is Lindsey Graham as both are old Senate hands, the difference being Graham is one of many while Sanders stands on his own but then again Graham is getting used to dealing with tea party Republicans as Sanders had to deal with the Democratic Corporatist and the don't rock the boat I got elected in a red state Democrats who are traditionally short lived. With Sanders it's less the man than the message that has got so many Progressives interested in him compared to Hillary. Unlike on the Republican side the Democratic race is Hillary Clinton VS X, in this case Sanders represents the left portions of the Democratic party along with the cross over social libertarians.

Infamous for: Senator Sanders has few infamies actions but he does have some questionable votes (He voted against the Amber Alert Bill) and voted against a bill that let women get those who had assaulted them tested for STD in a sexual assault situation. Really his career is just that good he's only got two questionable votes held against him.

Jim Webb
Former Senator from Virginia, War Hero and award winning author Jim Webb is a very interesting candidate. On the one hand he's the liberal John McCain except his war record was much better than McCain. He is one of the few Democratic challangers who made a point of going directly after George W Bush, he is and has been for years a political fighter rather than a deal maker. The military and veterans love him not only because of how well he projects the "I understand you" vibe to military but he's been at the front lines in all the military pay, VA benefits and VA healthcare fights. Veterans groups have excellent relations with Senator Webb, expected to see that in the campaign going forward.

Infamous for: He has a McCain like temper and he's a product of his time. Look no further than a piece he wrote called "Women Can't Fight" on the role of women in the military. He's changed since them but he still has long term misogyny and sexual harassment claims in his past. His last two decades however are pretty spotless.

Martin O'Malley
Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley is an Irish Lawyer turned mayor turned Governor of Maryland. Prior last month that was the start and end of my knowledge about Governor O'Malley. He's been one of those interchangeable north eastern liberal governors who never makes any news and is well liked locally. A month later I now know he had parents and they were in fact people. On the scale of liberalness he is the second most liberal after Bernie sanders so there is that.

Infamous for: I'd like to say "Martin O'Malley controversy" returned zero results but no there are exactly two, one he might have been unfaithful to his wife once and two that he likes using his numbers and not public numbers when it comes to crimes statistics... other than that.. nothing.

Lincoln Chafee

Former Senator then Governor from Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee is a Republican from another time. He was born twenty years to late to be an Eisenhower Republican and serve that President in achieving his goals. Instead he was Senator under Clinton and Bush where he was all but a Democrat most days. Anytime the Senate put together a biapartsain group you could find Chafee in there somewhere. After losing his seat he went on to be Governor of Rhode Island where by all accounts he did an excellent job or as I'll quote my uncle here...

Listen he payed the cops, put out the fires and did fook anything up. Don't piss anyone off don't fook up anything and he didn't piss us off or fook up anything. He was a stand up guy who knew better than to bother anything that did not need bothering. Yeah we liked him

So according to Uncle Bean he was a stand up guy which tells me Rhode Island is and remains the Florida of the United States for retired Mafia and Gang members and Coal miner pensioners.

Infamous for: He's a compromiser and in the vein of get along to get along not meeting his opponents half way. Most of time the compromises he made were either short term or complete surrenders to the other side in exchange for getting a tiny thing you want for everything they wanted. He's a famously bad bargainer in other words.


And our last contender....

Joe Biden

If he announces he's getting into the race I'll do one for Joe Biden, otherwise just know he loves trains, he's the current Vice President and he had to bury his own son who may or may not have demanded he run for the Presidency. It's not his first time running but he's yet to declare or form the I'm running for office committee he needs to form to legally run. But I've been listening to rumors all week he might jump in next month so I have to mention him.

[Borgholio]

A pipe dream of mine, having Trump win the GOP nomination and Biden win the Democrat nomination....and watching their first debate. That would be the bloodiest and nastiest contest in living memory...and entertaining as hell.

[Elheru Aran]

If Biden runs for President, he has a few skeletons in the closet from past runs that the Republicans won't hesitate to pull out and throw at him. Notably there was a plagiarism thing, IIRC (made a speech and cribbed a few lines a little too closely). Hardly the greatest crime in the book, but they'll go lower if they can.

Plus, while his debate against Ryan in 2012 was a thing of beauty... it didn't exactly build him a whole lot of goodwill. He came across as arrogant and insulting to a lot of people. While much of what he said was certainly true, it didn't necessarily help. Presumably he might take a proper Presidential debate a little more seriously than the sideshow that the VP debate was though.

[Bedlam]

Thanks for this Bean, very interesting.

[TimothyC]

I'd like to add two things to what Bean has said.

The first is that Webb worked as one of Reagan's Secretaries of the Navy (between Lehman and Ball), and the second is that O'Malley tried and failed to get his Lt. Governor elected to replace him in a reliably blue state.

[Mr Bean]

First debate starts half an hour ago (Woops) serious debate starts at 9pm in three and a half hours. I'll do put up some commentary.

[Mr Bean]

I've been listening to the kids table debate, you think they are running against Obama. Every question so far is framed as what thing they are going to undo that Obama already did. Vote for me I'll undo the last eight years of things that did done.

*On this level can you inspire our nation?
These questions are... odd, they are not so much questions as statements with a question mark at the end.
Something tells me they all had the questions ahead of time.

Give me a two word answer on describing Hillary Clinton
Only Fionrina and Santorum managed to do 2 word answers, Graham did not even try.

[Mr Bean]

Fun things to come out the debates so far

George Pataki I am not a career politician - Has been in politics for thirty years

The kids table debate room was about 60% empty

How can you run for the Republican nomination and be for single payer health care?" Perry said

Santorum is Ronald Reagan unknown love child per the number of times he referenced Reagen

[The Romulan Republic]

Sadly I don't seem to get any channel that's showing the Republican debate here, though I suppose the highlights will be all over the internet soon enough.

[Knife]

Anyone know, short of having cable and foxnews, where to watch this? Or even listen to this?

[Dominus Atheos]

http://www.livenewschat.eu/the-republic ... ve-stream/