General North Korea thread

[phred]

He forgot about it because it's been almost a year since they traded explosives?

Also, what were SK soldiers doing in the DMZ?

[Elheru Aran]

He forgot about it because it's been almost a year since they traded explosives?

Also, what were SK soldiers doing in the DMZ?

Fair enough.

As I understand it, both sides will occasionally put a toe over the line, so to speak. It's all part of the ritual dick-waving. Until the day that someone actually checks and finds that North Korea is an automated propaganda machine spewing out videos and everybody's dead, they're gonna keep doing it because nobody really wants the shit-show that invading NK would be and the Norks are too stubborn to own up that they've fucked their pooch so much it's dead. The only reason North Korea still really exists as a nation is the tacit and material support it receives from China; otherwise, it'd fold within a few years, or go out in a blaze of gore.

[dragon]

The Sk have little to bitch about as they are worse about violations
while there's been over 30 incidents where NK has violated the DMZ which is no where near as bad as the SK.

n 1976, in now declassified meeting minutes, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense William Clements told Henry Kissinger that there had been 200 raids or incursions into North Korea from the south, though not by the U.S. military. Details of only a few of these incursions have become public, including raids by South Korean forces in 1967 that had sabotaged about 50 North Korean facilities.

link

[dragon]

ok my bad the website about the 30 only had major incidents. there were over 200 from NK. But still they both are equally bad

[Simon_Jester]

The Sk have little to bitch about as they are worse about violations
while there's been over 30 incidents where NK has violated the DMZ which is no where near as bad as the SK.

n 1976, in now declassified meeting minutes, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense William Clements told Henry Kissinger that there had been 200 raids or incursions into North Korea from the south, though not by the U.S. military. Details of only a few of these incursions have become public, including raids by South Korean forces in 1967 that had sabotaged about 50 North Korean facilities.

link

So... how about violations of the DMZ that didn't happen over forty years ago?

I mean, in a very real sense South Korea was a completely different country in the 1960s compared to what it is today, and in 1976 the Korean War had been over for little more than a generation.

[Elheru Aran]

Yeah, my understanding is that nowadays South Korea prefers to quietly ignore its northern neighbor and carry on with business as much as possible. For official purposes they stand in a state of war and make the usual military noises to counter similar noises from the north, and every now and then there's a flap like this, but for the most part my understanding is that when something like this happens it's the North being aggressive. The South Koreans and the US allies are mostly sitting back waiting for the Norks to fold and throwing the occasional shipment of assistance over the border.

[K. A. Pital]

I've moved these posts to the thread in which they should be.

[The Romulan Republic]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... /32101537/

The U.S. halted annual joint military exercises with South Korea on Friday amid threats of war from North Korea.

U.S. defense officials, speaking on background to the Associated Press, said they were monitoring the situation, but no further military steps had been taken.

It was unclear if the exercises — which were stopped one week early — would resume. Reuters quoted an unidentified U.S. official as calling the halt a "pre-scheduled pause."

The latest development came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's declared Friday that his front-line troops are in a "quasi-state of war" and ordered them to prepare for battle against South Korea in response to an exchange of artillery fire along the border Thursday.

The young North Korean leader also chaired an emergency meeting of the North's powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency.

The Ulchi Freed Guardian Exercises 2015, scheduled to run from Aug. 17 to 28, involve 30,000 U.S. and 50,000 South Korean troops and also include forces from Australia, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, according to the U.S. Forces Korea web site.The UFK notes that the exercise is "planned months in advance and it is not connected to any current world events."

In response to the latest saber-rattling, South Korea’s defense minister, Han Minkoo warned North Korea it will face “searing” consequences if it launches fresh provocation.

"This time, we’ll cut off a vicious circle of North Korean provocation,” he said, according to the Associated Press

China said it was "deeply concerned" about the situation and called for the parties involved to cease any actions escalating tensions and maintain calm and restraint, spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on the ministry's website.

The North's CMC endorsed Kim's ultimatum that South Korea turn off loudspeakers that the North says are broadcasting provocative propaganda across the Demilitarized Zone between the two countries.

The North has given the South until 5 p.m. North Korean time (4:30 a.m. ET) Saturday to stop the broadcasts and remove banks of loudspeakers or suffer what it says will be severe military consequences.

The broadcasts began after South Korea accused the North of planting land mines that maimed two South Korean soldiers earlier this month. North Korea denies that allegation.

"The Korean People's Army (KPA) front-line large combined units entered into a wartime state all at once, fully armed to launch surprise operations, and wound up their preparedness for action," the KCNA said in an English-language dispatch, according to the South Korean Yonhap news agency.

The report also said that North Korean soldiers are waiting for "an order of attack" to destroy its enemy, warning the loudspeakers are "within the sight of the KPA's multiple rocket launchers and tactical and strategic rocket forces."

In an unusual move, a senior North Korean military officer also held a rare "emergency situation briefing" for diplomats and military attaches in Pyongyang to deliver its side of the crisis, AP reported from its bureau in the North Korean capital.

Kim Yong Chol, director of the general reconnaissance bureau of the North Korean army, said all front line units are on full war readiness and citizens are now in a "quasi-state of war."

The escalating war rhetoric from the secretive, nuclear-armed state comes a day after what some military analysts described as the most serious confrontation between the rival Koreas in years but others said simply reflected a periodic ratcheting up in tensions between the neighboring countries.

On Thursday, South Korea fired dozens of artillery rounds at North Korea in response to what it said were North Korean artillery strikes directed at Seoul. Pyongyang said it did not fire the shells. No one was injured in the incidents.

On Friday, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency nevertheless said that Kim Jong Un ordered his military to be ready for potential action later in the day.

“Military commanders were urgently dispatched for operations to attack South Korean psychological warfare facilities if the South doesn’t stop operating them,” the report said, according to AP.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported Friday that Seoul's intelligence agencies detected the movement of vehicles carrying short-range Scud and medium-range Rodong missiles in possible preparation for launches.

The report cited anonymous government officials. South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it could not confirm the report, according to the AP.

South Korea is accustomed to discounting North Korea’s repeated threats and the seriousness of this latest clash remains unclear.

"The fact that both sides' shells didn't damage anything means they did not want to spread an armed clash. There is always a chance for war but that chance is very, very low," Yang Moo-jin, a professor in North Korean studies in Seoul, told Reuters.

Korea was a unified nation until the end of the Korean War in 1953. Tensions between the two sides have escalated in recent years amid Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

This feels disturbingly... real.

But frankly, if it weren't for the nukes and the possibility, however small, of China or Russia taking North Korea's side, I might be inclined to say bring it on and let's finish this. I'm tired of this shit going on and on- more attacks, more skirmishes, more threats, while Kim Jong Fat Fuck basically runs a nation-sized gulag.

Edit: Despite that, I hope it doesn't get any worse. But both Koreas are really playing up the aggression here, it seems.

[Borgholio]

This feels disturbingly... real.

I know what you mean. Ordinarily I would simply handwave this as more propaganda bullshit, but we actually paused our normal military exercises and even China is speaking up. Those two facts seem to imply that the situation is actually serious this time.

[Broomstick]

One problem is that "wolf" has been called so many times over that border that it gets hard to believe that this time it's really serious... except on a certain level it has always been serious.

I agree, though, that halting military exercise early is probably the most alarming aspect of this confrontation.

[Iroscato]

One problem is that "wolf" has been called so many times over that border that it gets hard to believe that this time it's really serious... except on a certain level it has always been serious.

I agree, though, that halting military exercise early is probably the most alarming aspect of this confrontation.

Yeah, it was enough this time for the major players to take notice...I do not like how this is sounding.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

But frankly, if it weren't for the nukes and the possibility, however small, of China or Russia taking North Korea's side, I might be inclined to say bring it on and let's finish this. I'm tired of this shit going on and on- more attacks, more skirmishes, more threats, while Kim Jong Fat Fuck basically runs a nation-sized gulag.

I know what you mean- waiting for the country to fold might have been a viable tactic if China wasn't propping up the Norks, and no-one wants to see this shit carry on for another few decades. The simple matter is, the longer it goes on the worse it's going to be when the shit hits the fan. Even if this blows over it's only a matter of time before someone with an itchy trigger finger sets off another round of threats/shells.

[SpottedKitty]

The simple matter is, the longer it goes on the worse it's going to be when the shit hits the fan.

Another factor to consider — what happens when they run out of genuine Kim descendants? I wouldn't put it past the military/politbureau/whoever to pull off a real-life retcon and invent one (and who would dare contradict that kind of statement). If that doesn't work, the Cult of Kim unravels, and the whole place is going to come seriously unglued; the only question is when, and how much of it might splash on nearby countries.

[Mange]

The talks have resumed:

SEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- South and North Korea resumed rare high-level talks Sunday on defusing heightened tensions, an official said, as Pyongyang appears to be gearing up for possible strikes against Seoul.

Yonhap

[Omega18]

Also, what were SK soldiers doing in the DMZ?

Since no-one has accurately responded to this one, the key is that both North Korea and South Korea are permitted under the still in effect 1953 armistice to send regular soldiers to patrol their side of the DMZ, they just can't cross the demarcation point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone

This is actually fairly logical because without this option it would be possible for the other side to infiltrate this area and possibly even set up concealed fortified positions and heavy equipment in place in preparation for an offensive. Among other issues the land mine in question could not have been placed there without forces from North Korea crossing the demarcation point to do so.

In terms of key limitations of the DMZ with regards to the 1953 Armistice agreement appear to be the following.

The number of persons, military or civilian, from each side who are permitted to enter the demilitarized zone for the conduct of civil administration and relief shall be as determined by the respective Commanders, but in no case shall the total number authorized by either side exceed one thousand (1,000) persons at any one time.

http://news.findlaw.com/cnn/docs/korea/ ... 72753.html

(There may be some other restrictions which are either not so obvious from reading the text of the agreement or subsequently agreed to that I don't know about.)

[FaxModem1]

China is moving troops to the Korean border: link

[The Romulan Republic]

Is that indicative that China is preparing to move against North Korea or indicative that they're preparing to come to North Korea's aid (i.e. World War III)?

[Gandalf]

Why would the PRC aid the DPRK like that?

[Napoleon the Clown]

China wouldn't actually back North Korea in a fight because it would hurt them very badly. They would immediately lose the US as a trade partner, and that would fuck their economy hard. Hell, basically everyone would cease trade with them. North Korea has less to offer them, when it comes down to it, than either staying out of it entirely or siding with everyone else against NK.

If outright war does break out between North Korea and South Korea it'll be NK vs everybody who wants to get involved. I highly doubt anybody in power there fails to realize this, so I expect they're going to largely limit things to a lot of saber rattling. If they really did start shit, they'd do it knowing it was a suicidal war and would likely just go for as much collateral damage against South Korea as possible before they get completely annihilated by everyone that wants to get in on it.

[Broomstick]

"Collateral damage" in this case could be the destruction of Seoul. That's pretty bad.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Oh, definitely very bad. But I don't think they consider having their entire government and military destroyed completely is an acceptable price for the casualties they could accomplish, regardless of how seething the hatred. They may be utter shitbags, but I doubt they're stupid or delusional enough to think it would end in anything butter utter defeat.


So I pretty much expect them to go back and forth with the saber rattling, shows of strength, taking a few potshots at each other every so often. And nothing will change until the dynasty falls out of power, most likely from a coup. At which point there's a chance of people who are sick of that song and dance deciding to say "Okay, enough of this. We want to have legitimate talks." If this happens in any of our lifetimes is another matter entirely. A coup, I expect to happen in my life time. One that results in a government that wants to end hostility is a bit more questionable.

[Darmalus]

I doubt the NK leadership will ever initiate that sort of conflict, since the people who rise to that position generally want to live to enjoy it.

I'd be more worried if there was a breakdown in leadership, say if the last Kim died and whatever transition they attempted failed, since things would be more chaotic and likely to break down in blind panic.

[Batman]

Or maybe someone actually within hailing distance of sanity and the real world might rise to the top.

[Raw Shark]

Is that indicative that China is preparing to move against North Korea or indicative that they're preparing to come to North Korea's aid (i.e. World War III)?

I'll take Door #3, Monty: They're prepared to process or repel a very large number of refugees, possibly including armed military deserters, if things go badly, and they want everybody to know it, but will otherwise stay out of it except to make disapproving noises. At this point this they'd probably consider it advantageous if SK swallowed NK, with their recent moves toward capitalism and NK's incessant dick-waving and all, but they don't want to expend any capital on making it happen.

[The Romulan Republic]

That's a fairly optimistic possibility, but it makes a certain amount of sense.