General North Korea thread

[Iroscato]

SK won't make a direct move on NK because of their fledgling nuclear deterrent.
NK won't make a direct move on SK because they are significantly outmatched militarily and would have to resort to using their nukes, which would be tantamount to national suicide.

I'm fairly sure this situation will continue on as it has, with ceaseless dick-waving and the occasional exchange of live ammunition. At least until NK completely folds and sues for reunification, if that ever happens. Though I must admit the recent tension had me 'oh shitting' a bit...

[Broomstick]

The problem with the ceaseless dick-waving is that it only takes one "oops" to re-ignite a real war.

[Iroscato]

The problem with the ceaseless dick-waving is that it only takes one "oops" to re-ignite a real war.

Aye...guess it boils down to "how stupid is either side really?."

I'm betting on neither side being ready or willing to truly commit to a war, and that's what will ultimately lead to incidents such as this being resolved with talks, rather than full-on military action. A slightly savage side of me hopes NK folds soon, allowing SK to negotiate from a position of proper strength, but that means the suffering of millions to achieve it. Millions more suffering more, that is.

[Broomstick]

It's not just a matter of stupidity, or "commitment to war".

The US and USSR came far too close for comfort to nuclear exchange during the Cold War even though neither side wanted such a thing and the leadership, while far from perfect, was not entirely batshit insane. While I remember a certain amount of dick-waving, there was also a certain amount of "whoa, let's not push things too far" and attempts to work out ways to reduce the risk of an accident leading to the apocalypse. The two parties were also pretty careful to, you know, not actually shoot at the other guy or lob shells over a border or act like military exercises were an assault on someone else's pee-pee.

NK doesn't strike me as nearly that cooperative a player.

[Iroscato]

I guess the rules are a little more lax when you're not two global opposing superpowers with enough nuclear bombs to wipe out humanity several times over...

[Elheru Aran]

The PRC only flings supplies across the border because they have a vaguely ideological similarity with the North Koreans, but 'bros before hos' only lasts so very long when your 'bro' is the unwashed idiot who insists on making a scene everywhere he goes and being a general asshole to everybody before going 'who me' when you tell him to shut up and sit down. I would not be very surprised at all if in the near future China quietly cuts off all assistance, after a few months the military lops off the head of whatever Kim is sitting on the throne and runs up a white flag, and South Korea marches over the border.

[Broomstick]

I would not be very surprised at all if in the near future China quietly cuts off all assistance, after a few months the military lops off the head of whatever Kim is sitting on the throne and runs up a white flag, and South Korea marches over the border.

I would be surprised at that.

Frankly, any significant and lasting deviation from the current norm would surprise me. It's just that the above scenario is a bit more rosy than how I think things will play out in reality.

[Elheru Aran]

I would not be very surprised at all if in the near future China quietly cuts off all assistance, after a few months the military lops off the head of whatever Kim is sitting on the throne and runs up a white flag, and South Korea marches over the border.

I would be surprised at that.

Frankly, any significant and lasting deviation from the current norm would surprise me. It's just that the above scenario is a bit more rosy than how I think things will play out in reality.

Oh, certainly it'd be a bit more messy in the extended version, but China gains nothing from giving North Korea more than simple material assistance. They are essentially, as far as I know, the only reason the Norks haven't starved entirely by now.

The biggest problem with *any* prediction about the Korean situation is simply that North Korea is so unpredictable and erratic. They are riding the crazy train big time. It can't go on forever, but nobody really knows if it's going to stop quietly at the station or ram through it in a massive explosion.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Among other issues the land mine in question could not have been placed there without forces from North Korea crossing the demarcation point to do so.

Unless NK has acquired its own version of FASCAM, which would be easier than using ground troops to deploy mines.

Another player which hasn't really been talked about is Japan- how much support would they give SK in the event of war?

[Broomstick]

If NK lobs missiles, nuclear or not, at Japan screw what the Japanese think about SK, they'll be coming after NK for personal reasons.

[Borgholio]

IIRC, NK already threatened to nuke Tokyo. Good luck holding Japan back if that ever happens.

[Elheru Aran]

'Self-Defense Forces' notwithstanding... yeah, but Japan's military is nothing to write home about from what I understand. It's well trained, decently equipped and... small. Plus, you have centuries (if not millennia) of extreme resentment between the Koreans and Japanese due to much historical oppression of Korea by Japanese occupiers. It would not be impossible for the Japanese to *support* a retaliatory expedition, but being a major part of one is untenable for pure political purposes. As a practical thing, it *could* happen, and South Korea would have a hard time saying no if the Norks had actually thumped a few missiles into Japan.

[Broomstick]

IIRC, NK already threatened to nuke Tokyo. Good luck holding Japan back if that ever happens.

Indeed.

Although greater Tokyo is so damn big and spread out it would take more than one nuke from NK to wipe it out... which just makes it worse, really, because the survivors will be REALLY FUCKING PISSED. The Self Defense force is exactly that - for self defense. Attacking someone who dropped a nuke on you would definitely come under that umbrella.

The other thing is that the US is obligated to fight on behalf of Japan if they're ever attacked, and that's one ally the American public would likely support coming to the defense of, even more so than SK (which we are also obligated to help). Never mind that the Japanese will probably get to NK first in that instance even if they have to swim across the strait naked, right behind them will be the Americans.

[madd0ct0r]

I would not be very surprised at all if in the near future China quietly cuts off all assistance, after a few months the military lops off the head of whatever Kim is sitting on the throne and runs up a white flag, and South Korea marches over the border.

I would be surprised at that.

Frankly, any significant and lasting deviation from the current norm would surprise me. It's just that the above scenario is a bit more rosy than how I think things will play out in reality.

Oh, certainly it'd be a bit more messy in the extended version, but China gains nothing from giving North Korea more than simple material assistance. They are essentially, as far as I know, the only reason the Norks haven't starved entirely by now.

The biggest problem with *any* prediction about the Korean situation is simply that North Korea is so unpredictable and erratic. They are riding the crazy train big time. It can't go on forever, but nobody really knows if it's going to stop quietly at the station or ram through it in a massive explosion.

China gain from NK as it ties up SK military and focus for much much cheaper then if china had to do it themselves

[Metahive]

Let me chime in and say (again) that there's almost zero concern about this in my family. This saber-rattling is par of course, NK's pharao justifies the miserable life his subjects have to live by the constant threat of evil foreigners, so he gotta' fire some shots once in a while so that people don't wise up (more than they already did, anyway).

[Jaepheth]

News that North Korea may have tested a thermonuclear device:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35240012

[Broomstick]

Apparently the seismology fits, there's talk of sending planes over North Korean to attempt to detect tell-tale isotopes.

[Sky Captain]

It it was H bomb test then it failed spectacularly. Magnitude 5.1 is in line with their previous sub 10 kt tests. Even plain old atomic bomb working properly would have made around 20 kt blast. They are far from H bomb if they still can't get atomic bomb to work without fizzling after trying 10 years.

[Broomstick]

Yes, but apparently they have the makings of a hell of a dirty bomb.

[Isolder74]

Yes, but apparently they have the makings of a hell of a dirty bomb.

Frankly, a dirty bomb in the hands of North Korea is much more worrying then a full atomic bomb.

[SpottedKitty]

Almost definitely not big enough for a successful thermonuclear detonation, and from the info publicly released, the initiator itself (the normal fission bomb used to set off the full fusion reaction) might have fizzled. Still dangerous as h-e-double-hockey-sticks, though, as Broomstick mentioned.

The other thing to be nervous about, of course, is how small they've been able to make their device — can they stick it on top of a missile yet?

There's some very odd phrasing in their original announcement, I noticed. Can't help wondering if this is a translation artifact, or if they actually do talk like that, or if it really was written by a Nigerian spammer...

[CaptHawkeye]

It it was H bomb test then it failed spectacularly. Magnitude 5.1 is in line with their previous sub 10 kt tests. Even plain old atomic bomb working properly would have made around 20 kt blast. They are far from H bomb if they still can't get atomic bomb to work without fizzling after trying 10 years.

"Whelp, bomb was weaker than the weapons our competitors have a full 60+ years of development on us. Guess this means it's all pointless and we should just give up."

I know all about those times the British would say German warships were no match for them and then follow up with cowardly demands that the Germans please stop scaring them with more warship construction. I guess since the President was feeling particularly worried about what the right thought of him in his last non-election vulnerable year they even ordered a B52 to make a blatent gunboat diplomacy trip over North Korea after the test.

Is absolutely anyone in this land even remotely studied in human history? It's literally 2000+ years of the same mistakes over and over again.

[The Romulan Republic]

The latest lunacy and threats from Kim Jong Fat Fuck:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/301/ma ... t-any-time

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, has ordered his country to be ready to use nuclear weapons “at any time” in the face of a growing threat from enemies, its official media said on Friday.

Kim, who was supervising the exercise of newly developed multiple rocket launchers, also said his country should turn its military posture to a “pre-emptive basis” because enemies were threatening the state’s survival, its KCNA news agency said.


North Korea fires missile volley into sea after UN ratchets up sanctions
Read more
The apparent warning to the west comes only days after North Korea fired a volley of short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast.

This followed the UN security council’s unanimous approval of the toughest sanctions against the regime in two decades over its nuclear and rocket tests.

North Korea has previously carried out live firing near or across its borders when facing international condemnation.

In the past the North has reacted to international pressure with alarming words often designed for an internal audience.

Experts will point to the fact that although Kim Jong-un’s regime apparently possess the ability to detonate a weapon in controlled tests the prospect of delivering a nuclear warhead with a missile is highly doubtful.

The experts' consensus, as stated above seems to be that their capability to actually deploy them is limited (thankfully). Still, I figure its worth an update.

[Purple]

I really can't blame him. Sanctions newer produce anything good. They merely serve to radicalize the victim. This is just a desperate attempt of a bullied child to lash out at the big powerful kids to try and stop them from kicking him on the ground.

[Broomstick]

I don't pretend to be an expert, but I did some amateur study of North Korea awhile back. The regime justifies many imposed hardships as necessitated by enemy threats. The entire edifice rests on North Korea being under constant threat of extinction by powerful enemies (usually expressed as the Americans, but they've been known to spread the joy around). The system is absolutely dependent on having enemies. If the US disappeared overnight the North Koreans would have to find a new group of demons to blame their problems on.

And no, North Korea isn't "bullied" in the sense you mean. For the most part, the rest of the world would be happy to let them be their own cesspit but a nation that insists on firing across their border, threatening major cities (Seoul), and developing rockets and nuclear weapons can not be ignored because their nastiness can extend across the border to bother other people. North Korea is a child that insists on attention, and if he can't get it by being good he'll be bad. Their greatest fear is that they will be ignored, not invaded.