European refugee crisis thread

[cmdrjones]

4000 only? Insulting.

brits insulting germans? No way!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdKCNYpMM6w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPWGnfTrvJI

[cosmicalstorm]

I would like to see similar calculations, this is after all a board where people can name how many photons would strike a square kilometer of the Earth if the sun went supernova. But to be honest I think a lot of people just want to circlejerk while crying and not think about the real numbers.

There is going to be very real political reactions to this by the way. Like it or not but that is happening right now, the next couple of elections are going to be a real cold shower for some on this board.

This is the projection for Africa as a continent. How many thousand people would need to be relocated from Africa to Europe per day in order to have an impact?
I remember a thread about the possibility of using a space elevator to solve Earths overpopulation where some skilled posters debated the issue. It didn't seem like a good idea.



What is a good idea to effectively deal with this?

World population: Quarter of Earth will be African in 2050
Robert Ferris | @RobertoFerris
Thursday, 30 Jul 2015 | 1:03 PM ETCNBC.com
4.7K

The Earth will be quite a bit more crowded in 2050—with nearly 2.5 billion more people than now.
Indian passengers stand and hang onto a train as it departs from a station on the outskirts of New Delhi.
Money Sharma | AFP | Getty Images
Indian passengers stand and hang onto a train as it departs from a station on the outskirts of New Delhi.

A report released Wednesday by the United Nations projects the global population rising to more than 9.7 billion by 2050, up from just over 7.3 billion today.

In terms of growth, that's actually a slowdown, given that the world added 1 billion people since 2003 and 2 billion since 1990, according to the report. In almost every part of the world—even in the fastest-growing regions—fertility is on the decline. That trend is mostly expected to continue—families are expected to have fewer and fewer babies per household.

But momentum will still cause the planet's population to climb for several decades, especially in less developed countries where birthrates are highest.

Read MoreHow to pay for Medicare's next 50 years

More than half of the gains by 2050 will come from Africa, according to the report. The continent will add 1.3 billion people over the next few decades—roughly equivalent to the current population of China.

By 2050, 1 in 4 people on Earth will be African, and the report expects Africa to be the only region that will continue to grow after 2050.

But Africa will not be the only one growing. Asia will contribute 900 million new people in that timeframe as well, and South and Central America will contribute a smaller share.

Nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's population growth, and they're almost all in Africa or Asia: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia and Uganda are expected to grow the most, roughly in that order.

The only country in the top nine located outside Africa or Asia is the United States, which in terms of gains is predicted to sit between Tanzania and Indonesia.

In contrast, Europe's population will shrink, even though the average fertility there will rise from 1.6 children per woman in 2015 to 1.8 by 2050. Europe is the only part of the world where fertility has actually risen in recent years.

Currently, the three largest countries in the world by population are China, India and the United States. By 2050, India will surpass China to become the largest country and Nigeria will surpass the United States to become No. 3.

As with any projection, the U.N. numbers are not certainties. Other factors could dramatically affect how fast countries grow, including access to contraception, or political and economic instability. But the report notes that "[c]ontinued population growth until 2050 is almost inevitable, even if the decline of fertility accelerates."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/world-po ... -2050.html

[Thanas]

A fair number the UK should accept is around 500k at the very minimum.

How did you determine that figure?

Quite simple. Germany has 88mil population and will take 800k.
The United Kingdom has 65mil population.

Thus, they should be expected to take between 500-600k.

I'd agree in principle, but unlike other EU countries, there is a quite a large housing shortage as it is, as well as the steady stream of inner eu migrants (300k last year I think?)

We too have a housing shortage and take in even more than 300k inner eu migrants as well.

[cmdrjones]

I would like to see similar calculations, this is after all a board where people can name how many photons would strike a square kilometer of the Earth if the sun went supernova. But to be honest I think a lot of people just want to circlejerk while crying and not think about the real numbers.

There is going to be very real political reactions to this by the way. Like it or not but that is happening right now, the next couple of elections are going to be a real cold shower for some on this board.

This is the projection for Africa as a continent. How many thousand people would need to be relocated from Africa to Europe per day in order to have an impact?
I remember a thread about the possibility of using a space elevator to solve Earths overpopulation where some skilled posters debated the issue. It didn't seem like a good idea.



What is a good idea to effectively deal with this?

World population: Quarter of Earth will be African in 2050
Robert Ferris | @RobertoFerris
Thursday, 30 Jul 2015 | 1:03 PM ETCNBC.com
4.7K

The Earth will be quite a bit more crowded in 2050—with nearly 2.5 billion more people than now.
Indian passengers stand and hang onto a train as it departs from a station on the outskirts of New Delhi.
Money Sharma | AFP | Getty Images
Indian passengers stand and hang onto a train as it departs from a station on the outskirts of New Delhi.

A report released Wednesday by the United Nations projects the global population rising to more than 9.7 billion by 2050, up from just over 7.3 billion today.

In terms of growth, that's actually a slowdown, given that the world added 1 billion people since 2003 and 2 billion since 1990, according to the report. In almost every part of the world—even in the fastest-growing regions—fertility is on the decline. That trend is mostly expected to continue—families are expected to have fewer and fewer babies per household.

But momentum will still cause the planet's population to climb for several decades, especially in less developed countries where birthrates are highest.

Read MoreHow to pay for Medicare's next 50 years

More than half of the gains by 2050 will come from Africa, according to the report. The continent will add 1.3 billion people over the next few decades—roughly equivalent to the current population of China.

By 2050, 1 in 4 people on Earth will be African, and the report expects Africa to be the only region that will continue to grow after 2050.

But Africa will not be the only one growing. Asia will contribute 900 million new people in that timeframe as well, and South and Central America will contribute a smaller share.

Nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's population growth, and they're almost all in Africa or Asia: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia and Uganda are expected to grow the most, roughly in that order.

The only country in the top nine located outside Africa or Asia is the United States, which in terms of gains is predicted to sit between Tanzania and Indonesia.

In contrast, Europe's population will shrink, even though the average fertility there will rise from 1.6 children per woman in 2015 to 1.8 by 2050. Europe is the only part of the world where fertility has actually risen in recent years.

Currently, the three largest countries in the world by population are China, India and the United States. By 2050, India will surpass China to become the largest country and Nigeria will surpass the United States to become No. 3.

As with any projection, the U.N. numbers are not certainties. Other factors could dramatically affect how fast countries grow, including access to contraception, or political and economic instability. But the report notes that "[c]ontinued population growth until 2050 is almost inevitable, even if the decline of fertility accelerates."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/world-po ... -2050.html

now now, there could very well be a reversal of the current function, let's not take current trends and extrapolate them out ad infinitum assuming nothing will change between now and then. if you'd plotted the Native American population between 1492 and 1910 you'd assume they would be all dead by now, same thing for the black population between 1861- and say 1868 or so due to so many ex-slave starving and dying in the blasted remains of the south after the war.

[madd0ct0r]

Cosmicalstorm:

I think you need to go back to the WHO reports. There's huge uncertainty in population predictions. By 2050 alone the upper and lower bound of the WHo report for Bangladesh is larger then the entire population of the UK!

I'd be wary of taking single numbers from a churnalisim article as gospel.

[Crazedwraith]

A fair number the UK should accept is around 500k at the very minimum.

How did you determine that figure?

Quite simple. Germany has 88mil population and will take 800k.
The United Kingdom has 65mil population.

Thus, they should be expected to take between 500-600k.

Fair enough. There are other factors one could take into account. Population density for example. Or GDP, or amount of spare housing.

Not saying your number is wrong or under or over or anything. I've not done enough reading into it. I have no problem believe we could/should be taking many more refugees than the Government is willing to.

Also though, is Germany having to take so many more people because more migrants actually want to go there? If they are trying to get to Germany to get a job or whatever it is harder to tell them they really need to go to XYZ EU Country.

[The Xeelee]

Thanas, Britian needs to take in a lot more refugees but you estimate what Britian "should"take based on what Germany takes. You don't take in to account housing issues or even the fact that maybe Germany shouldn't be taking as many. The UK, France, Eastern Europe are all pulling way below their weight.

[Thanas]

Thanas, Britian needs to take in a lot more refugees but you estimate what Britian "should"take based on what Germany takes. You don't take in to account housing issues or even the fact that maybe Germany shouldn't be taking as many. The UK, France, Eastern Europe are all pulling way below their weight.

I am not sure the housing crisis is as severe in Britain as it is in Germany, but am willing to be convinced otherwise. And yes, France and Eastern Europe are pulling way below their weight, but it is not as if the flood of people will stop anytime soon. Afghanistan and Pakistan are close to breaking and Syria shows no sign of easing up. Meanwhile, Libya could be the next failed state and Tunesia is hanging on by a thread. It could get way worse.

[cosmicalstorm]

Angry migrants in Hungary throwing away water and food which the police supplies them with.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=344_1441354394

[Iroscato]

That boy is hot stuff on social media right now. Someone claimed that they had lived 3 years in Turkey but wanted to move to Greece to get dental care for the father. Were they forced onto that boat at gunpoint?

This post pretty much sums you and your attitude entirely. Cold, soulless apathy and xenophobia backed up with a completely unsubstantiated hearsay that you for some reason think won't go unnoticed by those with bullshit detectors that aren't shot to shit.

You're an unpleasant person, and I really wonder how your outlook would change if you had to endure something similar to what these people have suffered.

[cmdrjones]

Thanas, Britian needs to take in a lot more refugees but you estimate what Britian "should"take based on what Germany takes. You don't take in to account housing issues or even the fact that maybe Germany shouldn't be taking as many. The UK, France, Eastern Europe are all pulling way below their weight.

I am not sure the housing crisis is as severe in Britain as it is in Germany, but am willing to be convinced otherwise. And yes, France and Eastern Europe are pulling way below their weight, but it is not as if the flood of people will stop anytime soon. Afghanistan and Pakistan are close to breaking and Syria shows no sign of easing up. Meanwhile, Libya could be the next failed state and Tunesia is hanging on by a thread. It could get way worse.

By these metrics, shouldn't the gulf states, Morocco, Algeria, Singapore, Indonesia, Egypt, Brunei, and maylaysia take in thier "fair share" long before the Europeans? Or at least take them FROM europe once the europeans have saved them?

[AniThyng]

I'll be happy to have Malaysia take in refugees when our GDP is on par with Singapore's, sure.

[cmdrjones]

I'll be happy to have Malaysia take in refugees when our GDP is on par with Singapore's, sure.

Hence the phrase "by these metrics" referring to the Discussions of GDP, housing and so on upthread. But, don't you guys have a whole Dar Ul-islam thing as well as that Zakat thing as factors too?
You'd think you would JUMP a the chance to claim your fellow Muslims from the Europeans, right?

[ray245]

Thanas, Britian needs to take in a lot more refugees but you estimate what Britian "should"take based on what Germany takes. You don't take in to account housing issues or even the fact that maybe Germany shouldn't be taking as many. The UK, France, Eastern Europe are all pulling way below their weight.

I am not sure the housing crisis is as severe in Britain as it is in Germany, but am willing to be convinced otherwise. And yes, France and Eastern Europe are pulling way below their weight, but it is not as if the flood of people will stop anytime soon. Afghanistan and Pakistan are close to breaking and Syria shows no sign of easing up. Meanwhile, Libya could be the next failed state and Tunesia is hanging on by a thread. It could get way worse.

By these metrics, shouldn't the gulf states, Morocco, Algeria, Singapore, Indonesia, Egypt, Brunei, and maylaysia take in thier "fair share" long before the Europeans? Or at least take them FROM europe once the europeans have saved them?

South-east Asia has a very poor record of dealing with refugees, especially with the whole boat people saga back in the 70s and 80s. That and our treatment of rohingya is nothing to be proud of.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I would like to see similar calculations, this is after all a board where people can name how many photons would strike a square kilometer of the Earth if the sun went supernova. But to be honest I think a lot of people just want to circlejerk while crying and not think about the real numbers.

There is going to be very real political reactions to this by the way. Like it or not but that is happening right now, the next couple of elections are going to be a real cold shower for some on this board.

This is the projection for Africa as a continent. How many thousand people would need to be relocated from Africa to Europe per day in order to have an impact?

You have not demonstrated why there is a problem other than just the fact that there will be more dark people, a situation you seem to be deathly afraid of.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

South-east Asia has a very poor record of dealing with refugees, especially with the whole boat people saga back in the 70s and 80s. That and our treatment of rohingya is nothing to be proud of.

I don't think anyone really gives a shit about how much we should be proud or not proud of, really.

[LaCroix]

And nown the most Hungarian of all decisions has been made.

The refugees decided they'll no longer wait, and will now walk into Austria. The police let them leave.

I bet that they frantically looked through the handbooks and came to the realization that while they are not allowed to send them ahead, there is nothing in there that says they have to prevent them by force (no other option as this, the refugees won't listen, anymore) to move there, unaided.

Also, today, the Austrian Foreign Minister intervvened on behalf of 4 activists trying to bring some refugees to Austria, and they were let go instead of getting charged with trafficking. Coupled with the fact that Austrian organizations have already started orginizing busses and cars to pick up the walking refugees, tomorrow, it might very well happen that Hungary recognizes the precedent and lets the pick up proceed and just wave from afar.

I've heard people saying things in the vein of "The Austrians were unhappy with how we deal with the refugees who don't want to stay here. Let's see if they can deal with them, better."

[cmdrjones]

South-east Asia has a very poor record of dealing with refugees, especially with the whole boat people saga back in the 70s and 80s. That and our treatment of rohingya is nothing to be proud of.

I don't think anyone really gives a shit about how much we should be proud or not proud of, really.

you'd be surprised how concerned some are on this board with minor regional powers' behavior towards vulnerable populations. In any case, the boat people weren't Muslims, these people ARE.... And each day is a chance to choose to do the right thing. Trust me on this one!

[Edi]

People who are wondering at the Gulf states not taking in Syrian refugees: Did it happen to cross your minds that the powers that be in these countries have been bankrolling the ISIS, a sect of Sunni fanatics, which makes most of its attacks against the following groups:

* Non-Muslims
* Shia Muslims (majority of Syrian population)
* Non-Arab Sunni Muslims
* Anybody who does not accept their rule (including Arab Sunni Muslims)

Their attacks go in roughly that order in terms of who gets treated harshest. The Sunni/Shia rift in the Muslim world is deep and abiding and there is no shortage of hate there. There is no way in hell the Sunni Persian Gulf states are going to take any Shia refugees in. They also do not particularly care about being in violation of whatever agreements regarding human rights, refugees etc they may have signed at some point.

[Broomstick]

I am confused as to how exactly Europe will be 'risking collapse' by taking in the refugees.

You have not demonstrated why there is a problem other than just the fact that there will be more dark people, a situation you seem to be deathly afraid of.

Not literal collapse, but a sudden influx of several million people in just one year into Europe will inevitably be disruptive even without a “fear of dark people”.

Not saying your number is wrong or under or over or anything. I've not done enough reading into it. I have no problem believe we could/should be taking many more refugees than the Government is willing to.

Personally, I think this should be addressed globally. I was kicking around some numbers on another board last night and if you split the numbers among 30-35 nations it works out to about 50,000 refugees for each. Tweak a little up and down depending on size/economy, but honestly, France, the UK, and many others could take in that many. It would be much more equitable than just a half dozen nations trying to take them in.

Oh, recently found out – those Arab states like Saudi Arabia, know how many of them are taking in their Muslim brothers? About zero. WTF? Wow, says something about Arab/Muslim/Regional solidarity and/or stability, doesn't it?

Also though, is Germany having to take so many more people because more migrants actually want to go there? If they are trying to get to Germany to get a job or whatever it is harder to tell them they really need to go to XYZ EU Country.

I think they also trust Germany not to round them up and put them into concentration camps... which is quite a turn-around from 70 yeas ago and shows just how much the world has changed in some respects. The refugees clearly do NOT trust the Hungarian government. Honestly, stuffing people onto trains and taking them into camps? Yeah, that would give me the willies, too.

I do believe that a significant number of these people would be willing to go someplace other than Germany as long as they can trust they will be treated fairly. The little drowned boy whose picture appeared just about everywhere the last few days? His family had first tried for asylum in Canada, Those who speak English might actually prefer to go to the UK, US, Canada, or Australia rather than having to learn yet another language, but it's Germany who has said it will let them in. They might be willing to go to France or Sweden or Finnland, but those nations have to be willing to accept them.

By these metrics, shouldn't the gulf states, Morocco, Algeria, Singapore, Indonesia, Egypt, Brunei, and maylaysia take in thier "fair share" long before the Europeans? Or at least take them FROM europe once the europeans have saved them?

They should, but apparently they won't.

South-east Asia has a very poor record of dealing with refugees, especially with the whole boat people saga back in the 70s and 80s.

That was a mess. And a few of those boat people who were fortunate enough to be rescued wound up going to high school with me.

And nown the most Hungarian of all decisions has been made.

The refugees decided they'll no longer wait, and will now walk into Austria. The police let them leave.

I bet that they frantically looked through the handbooks and came to the realization that while they are not allowed to send them ahead, there is nothing in there that says they have to prevent them by force (no other option as this, the refugees won't listen, anymore) to move there, unaided.

Well, not a particularly kind, option, but not the worst of all worlds, either. If they won't help them then at least they will not hinder their passage.

I do fear there will still be fatalities along the way – on a march like that not everyone will make it.

Also, today, the Austrian Foreign Minister intervvened on behalf of 4 activists trying to bring some refugees to Austria, and they were let go instead of getting charged with trafficking. Coupled with the fact that Austrian organizations have already started orginizing busses and cars to pick up the walking refugees, tomorrow, it might very well happen that Hungary recognizes the precedent and lets the pick up proceed and just wave from afar.

I've heard people saying things in the vein of "The Austrians were unhappy with how we deal with the refugees who don't want to stay here. Let's see if they can deal with them, better."

The news also showed some Hungarians giving food and water to the walkers and the walkers accepting their help – again, I think the trust issue is with the government of Hungary, not so much with individual Hungarians. The Syrians are afraid of being imprisoned and left to rot, or possibly worse, and I don't think it's entirely unfounded.

you'd be surprised how concerned some are on this board with minor regional powers' behavior towards vulnerable populations. In any case, the boat people weren't Muslims, these people ARE.... And each day is a chance to choose to do the right thing. Trust me on this one!

It shouldn't fucking matter what religion these people are or are not, or what color they are, or if they're young or old or whatever the hell else people quibble about. They are human beings, and they need help or they have a very real chance of dying. That's the most important issue, and the question that follow should be “how can we help them?”.

[Honorius]

People who are wondering at the Gulf states not taking in Syrian refugees: Did it happen to cross your minds that the powers that be in these countries have been bankrolling the ISIS, a sect of Sunni fanatics, which makes most of its attacks against the following groups:

* Shia Muslims (majority of Syrian population)

The Gulf States are not bankrolling IS, that is has been disproven repeatably by independent investigators. IS is self-funded by taxation, oil sales of primarily Syrian Oil, ransoms, extortion rackets, and antiquities sales.

The Gulf States are however funding the FSA and the rebel's recent campaigns in Idlib were largely made possible by TOW Missiles provided by the Gulf States and Turkey. With Turkey allegedly jamming Syrian Army radios to assist the offensive so JAN suicide bombers could hit key positions with Syrian ATGM teams unable to coordinate counter SVBIED actions.

Lastly Syria is majority Sunni. The refugees fled largely due to Assad and the vast majority of the destruction and killing in Syria is due to Assad.

Targeting Assad, taking his regime out and assisting FSA to win is the best way to solve the refugee crisis and allow Syrians to go home. Once Assad is gone, FSA can then deal with IS and PYD scum and run them out of Syria.

Or we can keep treating the symptoms and allow this festering sore continue.

[cosmicalstorm]

That boy is hot stuff on social media right now. Someone claimed that they had lived 3 years in Turkey but wanted to move to Greece to get dental care for the father. Were they forced onto that boat at gunpoint?

This post pretty much sums you and your attitude entirely. Cold, soulless apathy and xenophobia backed up with a completely unsubstantiated hearsay that you for some reason think won't go unnoticed by those with bullshit detectors that aren't shot to shit.

You're an unpleasant person, and I really wonder how your outlook would change if you had to endure something similar to what these people have suffered.

Unsubstantiated?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZUuoaq1MLM

I would try to do the same thing if I was born in any of those places.

[Metahive]

So, a YT video and it's from a guy who names himself RobinHoodUKIP. I see your ability to support your xenophobia with the most appropriate of sources is still intact, Cosmical Ali.

[cosmicalstorm]

So, a YT video and it's from a guy who names himself RobinHoodUKIP. I see your ability to support your xenophobia with the most appropriate of sources is still intact, Cosmical Ali.

So Teema Kurdi who is interviewed in the video is not the boys aunt because of the name of the youtube uploader? Hello Mr Wishful Thinking

Read more about Teema here:
Father of dead boys: 'All I want is to be with my children'
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0005706c ... ned-turkey

[Thanas]

The Gulf States are not bankrolling IS, that is has been disproven repeatably by independent investigators. IS is self-funded by taxation, oil sales of primarily Syrian Oil, ransoms, extortion rackets, and antiquities sales.

*citation needed*

The Gulf States are however funding the FSA and the rebel's recent campaigns in Idlib were largely made possible by TOW Missiles provided by the Gulf States and Turkey. With Turkey allegedly jamming Syrian Army radios to assist the offensive so JAN suicide bombers could hit key positions with Syrian ATGM teams unable to coordinate counter SVBIED actions.

Turkey is assisting suicide bombers now? What a dishonorable scumbag nation.